This document discusses the challenges and opportunities of technological change and globalization. It argues that while past eras saw improved living standards and equality through public investments in infrastructure, education, and welfare systems, new challenges have emerged. These include an aging population, technological unemployment, environmental issues, and questions about whether current democratic systems can adequately address structural economic changes. It proposes that Nordic societies exemplify principles of social justice, equality and inclusiveness that could inform a "Next Era" vision focused on an inclusive circular economy, progressive democratic institutions, and improving skills.

1. The Next Era: a new Nordic Societal Vision
for Well-Being
Winners and Losers of Globalisation
Vision Europe Summit
Turin, Nov 15th 2017
Aleksi Neuvonen
Demos Helsinki
aleksi.neuvonen@demoshelsinki.fi
@leksis

2. ’The period from the mid-nineteenth century
to 1970 was one in which the working class
benefited from the growth in productivity.
Incomes became more equal. This is the
economic performance that many have come
to regard as normal.'
'Most discussions in the West focus on how
technological evolution in the West affects
jobs in the West. This frame is too narrow for
the twenty-first century: we must investigate
the effect of technological change on work
everywhere. For the past three centuries, the
global economy has been sufficiently
integrated that new technology in one place
affects work in others.’

4. GIN LANE

7. BACK TO GREAT VS TECHNO-OPTIMISM

8. Have we lost the hope?

9. www.nextera.global
#NextEraGlobal

11. NextEra.global memorandums

12. GROWTH - WORK - DEMOCRACY - WELLBEING

13. THE PROMISE OF THE 20TH CENTURY
COMPANIES
PEOPLESTATE
WELFARE
W
ORK
GROW
TH
W
AGES
LABOUR
TAXESSOCIAL SECURITY
TAXES
INVESTM
ENTS
(education,infra)

14. COMPANIES
STATE PEOPLE

15. Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global

16. Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.

17. F I N L A N D
-0,5–1%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.

18. F I N L A N D
-0,5–1%
D E N M A R K
-1,5–1,5%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.

19. F I N L A N D
-0,5–1%
D E N M A R K
-1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y
<2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.

20. F I N L A N D
-0,5–1%
D E N M A R K
-1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y
<2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.
N E T H E R L A N D S
-0,5–1%

21. F I N L A N D
-0,5–1%
D E N M A R K
-1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y
<2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
-0,5–1,5%
N E T H E R L A N D S
-0,5–1%

22. F I N L A N D
-0,5–1%
D E N M A R K
-1,5–1,5%
G E R M A N Y
<2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
-0,5–1,5%
J A PA N
-1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S
-0,5–1%

23. F I N L A N D
-0,5–1%
D E N M A R K
-1,5–1,5%
U S A
4–5%
G E R M A N Y
<2%
Annual growth of GDP in developed countries after 2008-2009 financial crash nextera.global
U N I T E D K I N G D O M
1% max.
C Z E C H R E P U B L I C
-0,5–1,5%
J A PA N
-1,5–1,5%N E T H E R L A N D S
-0,5–1%

24. 1. Ageing population

25. 1. Ageing population

26. 2. Technological
deflation

27. 2. Technological
deflation

28. 3. Declining regions

29. 3. Declining regions

30. 4. Need to limit use of the
most polluting resources

31. 4. Need to limit use of the
most polluting resources

32. 1. Ageing
population
2. Technological
deflation
3. Declining
industrial regions
4. Need to limit
most polluting
resources

33. THE ERA OF TECHNOLOGICAL
UNEMPLOYMENT?

34. THE ERA OF TECHNOLOGICAL
UNEMPLOYMENT?
World Economic Forum
5m
JOBS
lost across 15 developed nations by 2020
137m
WORKERS
across Cambodia, Indonesia, the
Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
at risk from automization
International Labor Organisation

36. Globalisation:
Does democracy work in
the middle of structural changes
in the economy?

37. Globalisation:
Does democracy work in
the middle of structural changes
in the economy?
Ecological sustainability:
Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population
How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources?

38. Globalisation:
Does democracy work in
the middle of structural changes
in the economy?
Ecological sustainability:
Earth has become a small planet for a very big human population
How do we solve the burning issues of scarce common natural resources?
Technology:
Our democracies are tuned
for the world of the 20th century.
Are we even asking the right questions?

39. 'The need for educated workers led to the expansion of state
provision of education. The increasing number of educated
people prompted the invention of technologies that took
advantage of education8. Those technologies led to further
demand for education. At the same time, the public provision of
infrastructure — roads and airports, for instance — was crucial for
the development of industries involving cars and aircraft. Public
support for research in medicine, agriculture and technologies
with military applications, such as electronics and aircraft,
underlaid many advances. The welfare state helped to spread the
benefits of this economic development across the population.’
Robert C. Allen: ”Lessons from history for the future of work”, Nature 18 October 2017

40. Industrial revolution
gave rise to most of
the structures that
shape our current
societies.

41. • SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS
• WELFARE STATE
• PRIMARY EDUCATION
SYSTEM
• URBAN PLANNING
• TRADE UNIONS
• REPRESENTATIVE
DEMOCRACY

42. 1790 18401830182018101800
2005 20552045203520252015

43. 1790 18401830182018101800
2005 20552045203520252015
Can we speed up the
transformation towards the next
era of wellbeing?

45. 2017
BASIC INCOME
EXPERIMENT
20??
“NEXT ERA
SOCIAL
CONTRACT”
[EXPERIMENTS + FRAMEWORKS + POLICIES NEEDED]

46. What if…
Basic income covers a large share of your living costs?
Healthcare turns preventive and cheap due to technology?
Sharing platforms enable cash-free lifestyles?
Our pensions are collaborative and mutual?
We go through a university level training seven times in our lifetime?
Peer learning takes off massively?
Access to artificial intelligences becomes a citizen right?

47. The Next Era Societal
Vision for Well-Being

48. The VES network foresight workshop,
Helsinki June 21-22. 2017

49. What is particularly valuable in the (future) Nordic
model? (according to VES network participants)
"Social justice, environnemental values and human rights”
”The principles of inclusiveness and equality”
”Combining economic growth with a relatively equal
distribution of net income”
”Low levels of hierarchies”

51. ”GETTING TO DENMARK”

52. ”GETTING TO DENMARK”

53. VISION FOR NEXT ERA OF WELLBEING?
It should (in a sober manner) accept planetary boundaries, broad international
collaboration and technological development as core beliefs.
Would focus policies on
• inclusive circular economy,
• progressive of democracy and (both public and private) institutions, and
• improving level of skills and capabilities.
Could make citizen to feel that
• New forms of work and income provide opportunities for them,
• They are being heard and are motivated to dialogue and collaboration w/ others
• They can and should learn and grow as humans throughout their lives.

54. www.nextera.global
#NextEra #NextEraTokyo