SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 56
Download to read offline
Assessing Cumulative Effects of SAGD
Operations in the Mackay Watershed
Dirk Kassenaar, E.J. Wexler, P.J. Thompson, M. Takeda
Earthfx Inc.
Watertech 2016
April 7, 2015
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Introduction
 In-situ Steam Assisted Gravity
Drainage (SAGD) oil sand
operations require a source of fresh
water for steam injection.
 Groundwater supply wells,
generally drawing from aquifers
above the oil production zone, are
a preferred source.
2- Introduction
From MEG Energy Corp.
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Objectives
 In 2014, Earthfx Inc. was hired by the Cumulative Environmental Management
Association (CEMA) to answer the following question:
▪ Is there enough water in the Mackay watershed to sustain a responsible
level of development
 Cumulative effects analysis requires the integrated assessment of:
▪ Multiple anthropogenic stresses:
• Numerous spatially distributed SW and GW diversions
• Land use change (land clearing, drill pads, roads, etc.)
▪ Intersecting effects on surface and groundwater systems:
• Changes in groundwater levels (drawdowns) in all aquifer systems
• Changes to frequency, duration and severity of low flow conditions
3- Introduction
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Area
 MacKay River Watershed is
located immediately north-west of
Fort McMurrray, AB
▪ Includes Syncrude Mine site and
numerous SAGD operations
 Watershed Area: 5,600 km2
 Model Area: 7,900 km2
4- Summary of Model Development
Legend
Lake
Namur
Lake
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Approach
 Step 1: Integrated Model Development and Calibration
▪ Model Development: Compile Geology, Hydrogeology, Climate, Hydrology, Hydraulics
▪ Model Calibration:
• Build and pre-calibrate the SW and GW submodels
• Complete the fully integrated model calibration: Full reconciliation of entire hydrologic cycle water budget
 Step 2: Sustainability Assessment
▪ Define Assessment Criteria and Climate Period
• Define aquifer drawdown and streamflow impact sustainability thresholds
• Select a representative “surrogate” climate assessment period (25 years)
▪ Simulate Pre-development (Baseline), Current and Full Build conditions over the climate period
▪ Compare, on a daily basis, Current and Full-build conditions against Baseline
• Evaluate GW drawdowns and streamflow changes against Assessment Criteria
5- Introduction
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
MODELLING APPROACH
6- Modelling Approach
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Integrated Modelling Approach: Advantages
 Study Approach: Fully integrated surface water and groundwater model
 Better representation of:
▪ Groundwater recharge and
Dunnian GW feedback
▪ Streamflow and induced leakage
▪ SW/GW storage
▪ Cumulative effects of all SW and
GW diversions
 Flux inputs and calibration targets
▪ Measured precipitation as input
▪ Calibration to total streamflow and
measured GW levels
7- Modelling Approach
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Selected Model: USGS GSFLOW
 USGS integrated GW/SW model
▪ Based on MODFLOW-NWT and PRMS (Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System)
▪ Open-source, proven and very well documented
▪ Fully-distributed: Cell-based representation
▪ Excellent balance of hydrology, hydraulics and GW
8- Modelling Approach
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SUMMARY OF MACKAY
MODEL DEVELOPMENT
9- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Study Area Features
 Topography (600 m of relief)
▪ Birch Mountains
▪ Thickwood Hills
 Incised river and stream network
▪ MacKay River – main channel
▪ Dover and Dunkirk Tributaries
▪ Athabasca River: South and eastern boundary
 Legend and Namur Lakes
▪ Plus over 100 other lakes in study area
 Extensive muskeg and wetlands
 Bedrock Channel Aquifers
▪ Key GW supply source for multiple projects
 Anthropogenic Stresses
▪ Syncrude Mine
▪ SW and GW Diversions
10- Summary of Model Development
AMBI, 2013)
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW: Multi-Resolution
 GSFLOW is unique in that the
resolution of the model can be
adjusted to match key features
11
Climate inputs
( 2.5 km cells)
Surface Hydrology/Soil Zone
( 200x200 m cells)
Sub-surface Hydrogeologic Layers
( 13 layers of 400x400 m cells)
Stream Network
Linear 1-D Channel segments
(4000 km of streams represented,
independent of grid resolution)
- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Grid
 Fully distributed model: Every
cell has unique properties
 GW grid: 400 m by 400 m cells
▪ Selected to match assessment
averaging criteria (impact at 150 m
from a well) but avoid focus on
specific water users.
▪ Can be refined for future studies
 SW Grid: 200x200 m cells
▪ Improved representation of overland
flow, wetlands, interflow and soil
zone processes and properties
 Stream routing:
▪ All streams and rivers simulated
12- Summary of Model Development
400x400 m GW grid
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Geologic Setting
13- Summary of Model Development
Surficial Geology Bedrock Geology
Predominantly tills
and glaciolacustrine
deposits
Subcrop of units
that dip to the
southwest
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Geologic Information
14- Summary of Model Development
 Primary sources for geologic
borehole data:
25,000 - Alberta Geological Survey
255 - Atlas (Western Canada
Sedimentary Basin)
 Limited geologic data in Birch
Mountains and central portion of
study area
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Conceptual Stratigraphic Model
15- Summary of Model Development
After AGS Source: Andriashek and Atkinson, 2007
Empress Channel Sands:
Key water supply aquifer
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Hydrostrat. Layers
16- Summary of Model Development
 19 layer strat. model used to
produce 17 layer hydrostrat.
model.
▪ Some units of similar hydraulic
properties were combined.
▪ McMurray Basal Sands added as
separate aquifer unit.
 Model does not extend below
Prairie Fm. Aquiclude
▪ Assumed minimal communication
due to low vertical K of unit.
▪ Simulating higher salinities (>50,000
mg/L TDS) would require density
dependent groundwater flow.
Period Unit
Stratigraphic
Model
Unit
Hydrostratigraphic
Model
Quaternary
1 Late Lacustrine 1 Aquitard
2 Surface Sand 2 Aquifer
3 Grand Centre Till 3 Aquitard
4 Middle Sands 4 Aquifer
5 Intermediate Till 5 Aquitard
6 Empress Channel Sands 6 Aquifer
Cretaceous
7 Labiche Formation 7 Aquitard
8 Pelican/Viking Formation 8 Aquifer
9 Joli Fou Formation 9 Aquitard
10 Grand Rapids Formation 10 Aquifer
11 Clearwater Formation
11 Aquitard
12 Wabiskaw Formation
13
McMurray Formation
(includes Basal Sands)
12 Aquitard
13 Basal Sand Aquifer
Devonian
14 Winterburn Formation (not included)
15 Grosmont Formation 14 Aquifer
16 Lower Ireton Formation 15 Aquitard
17 Cooking Lake Formation 16 Aquifer
18 Beaverhill Lake Group 17 Aquitard
19
Watt Mountain Formation
(Top of Elk Point Group)
Base of Model
Prairie Formation
(not included)
Keg River Formation
Contact Rapids Formation
Laloche Formation
Precambrian
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW Level Data
 803 wells with water level data
 Well assigned to hydrostrat. units
based on screened intervals.
 Limited long term temporal
monitoring data (GOWN)
17- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Groundwater Submodel Calibration
18- Summary of Model Development
Unit
Number of
Wells
(n)
ME
(m)
MAE
(m)
RMSE
(m)
Range in
Observations
(m)
RMSE as
Percent of
Range
(%)
Overburden 236 -1.36 4.40 7.18 509.4 1.4%
Empress 58 -7.01 8.33 2.89 189.5 1.5%
Labiche 4 24.50 25.53 32.78 176.3 18.6%
Viking 42 -9.04 10.67 12.65 38.9 32.5%
Joli Fou 10 -5.24 9.44 10.46 28.5 36.8%
Grand Rapids 53 -8.45 8.58 11.58 94.7 12.2%
Clearwater 114 -5.55 8.97 12.06 188.6 6.4%
McMurray 71 0.56 11.47 19.50 279.7 7.0%
Cooking Lake 2 62.09 89.00 108.52 198.3 54.7%
Overall 590 -3.35 7.86 13.55 524.6 2.6%
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
200 300 400 500 600 700 800
Simulated(masl)
Observed (masl)
Overburden
Empress Fm.
Labiche Aquitard
Viking Aquifer
Joli Fou Aquitard
Grand Rapids Aquifer
Clearwater Aquitard
McMurray Aquifer/Aquitard
Cooking Lake Aquifer
1:1
Error Intervals (±10 m)
 Steady-state submodel calibration.
 Better calibration in aquifers where
data more plentiful.
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Hydrologic Submodel Development (PRMS)
 Based on the USGS
Precipitation-Runoff Modeling
System (PRMS) code
 Fully distributed implementation
 200m x 200m cells (196,832
unique cell HRUs)
19- Summary of Model Development
In each unique cell:
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Climate Inputs
 Precipitation and temperature
interpolated on a daily basis over a
2.5km x 2.5km grid
▪ Inverse distance squared weighting
 25 year daily climate time series
input for each grid cell
20- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Vegetative Cover Classes
 26 wetland and vegetative cover classes
▪ 17 types of wetlands
 Model parameters assigned by class:
▪ Seasonal Cover density
▪ Vegetation indices
▪ Soil zone properties
▪ Overland flow and shallow interflow parameters
21- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Overland Flow
 Overland flow and interflow simulated with a
topographically defined cascade network
 200x200m cell representation
22- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Lateral Flow Processes
23- Summary of Model Development
PRMS
Soil Zone
MODFLOW
Layer 1
MODFLOW
Layer 2
• Head Dependant
• Saturation Dependant
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Dunnian Flow Processes: SW/GW Feedback
24- Summary of Model Development
 Groundwater feedback dominates in discharge areas, wetlands and shallow aquifers
▪ GW feedback in up to 60% of the watershed
 Complex transient runoff and rejected recharge
▪ Occurs when the water table is at or near surface
▪ Spatially controlled: Tends to occur in stream valley areas
▪ Seasonally controlled: Tends to occur in spring when WT is high
 GW discharge to the soil zone can become interflow or overland flow
 Overland flow can re-infiltrate downslope: “3D recharge”
Unsaturated
zone
StreamStream
Gravity drainage
Recharge
Ground-water flow
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Frozen Ground
 New frozen ground module developed for
this study
▪ GSFLOW is Open Source!
 Based on a modified form of the Stefan
Equation
▪ Derived by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
 Model code follows Emerson (1994)
25- Summary of Model Development
𝑋𝑓 =
86,400𝐾𝑓 𝐼𝑓
𝐿 + 𝐶 𝑇𝑎 +
𝐼𝑓
2𝑡
0.5
𝑋𝑓 = 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑡
𝐾𝑓 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝐼𝑓 = 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
𝐿 = 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡
𝐶 = 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦
𝑇𝑎 = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑜𝑖𝑙 𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒
𝑡 = 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑧𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Frozen Ground Response
 Frozen soil dynamics affect both surface and subsurface processes:
▪ SW Runoff and Recharge: Enhanced runoff during spring freshet, no winter recharge
▪ GW Discharge: Significantly reduced winter discharge to streams and wetlands
26- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Calibration and Validation
 Calibrated then verified against over 38 year period
 A range of hydroclimatic conditions simulated
27- Summary of Model Development
Validation Calibration
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Calibration and Validation
 Hydrologic submodel and the final
integrated model were calibrated
against streamflow observations at 6
Water Survey (EC) and RAMP
stations
 Historical observations at
discontinued stations were an
important source of insight
28- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Calibration and Validation
 Good match to streamflow
observations at study area gauges
 Daily Nash-Sutcliffe 0.65
 Monthly Nash-Sutcliffe 0.75
 Good match to validation period:
Model has adequate predictive
power
29- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Distributed Results
30- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Distributed Results (GSFLOW)
31- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW GW/SW Outputs
32- Summary of Model Development
April May
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW/SW Animation
 Animation shows spring
melt and changes in GW
levels and streamflow
 Click for Animation
33- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW Outputs
 Spring change in water
levels and streamflow
34- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW Outputs
 Spring change in water
levels and streamflow
 Click for Animation
35- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GSFLOW GW/SW Water Budgets
Significant inter-annual and seasonal storage effects.
36- Summary of Model Development
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg
Flows(mm/month)
Monthly Average GW Inflows and Outflows - Pre-Development Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surf Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Flows(mm/yr)
Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Pre-Development Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Model Development Conclusions
 The Mackay GSFLOW model represents the complex transient surface
and subsurface process and their interaction and feedback
 Extensive submodel development and integrated model calibration was
undertaken to all available data
 Key aspect of the integrated model calibration:
▪ Directly measured flux input: Precipitation
▪ Directly observed calibration targets: Total measured streamflow and GW heads
▪ Overall water budget must balance – no water is gained or lost
37- Summary of Model Development
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS:
CRITERIA AND RESULTS
38- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Diversion Scenarios
 Baseline: No pumping
 Current Conditions:
▪ 4 Operations including 11
pumped wells.
 Full-Build Conditions:
▪ 14 Operations including 42
pumped wells.
39- Assessment Scenarios
Current
Operations
Current
Operations
Current
Operations
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Land Use Change
 Processing facilities and well pads
▪ Assumed to be 100m by 100m gravel
pads spaced 500m on center
▪ Reduced ET, due to the loss of vegetation,
increased runoff
 Full Build Scenario:
▪ Drill pads are estimated to cover 6% of
the planned project areas;
▪ Roads, pipelines, and facilities cover
another 4%.
40- Recommendations for Phase 3
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Assessment Climate Period
 25 year period includes a range of hydroclimatic conditions
▪ Includes both wet years (1997) and drought years (1998-1999, 2009 and 2011).
▪ 5 year spin-up period before start of assessment
41
Surrogate Climate Period
- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW Sustainability Assessment Criteria
 In summary, it was agreed that the sustainable drawdown is 50% of the available
drawdown in a confined aquifer.
▪ Threshold selection based on the Alberta Environment Water Conservation and Allocation Guideline for Oilfield
Injection (AENV, 2006)
▪ For unconfined aquifers, 66% of the average saturated thickness was used.
▪ Available drawdown based on average water level determined by 20 year baseline simulation.
 Assessment Process: all three scenarios run using the same climate inputs
▪ Only difference is diversions and land use change
▪ Daily outputs for every model cell and stream reach saved for comparison
• Drawdown calculation
• Alberta Desktop Assessment
 If, under Current or Full-build development conditions, drawdowns exceeded this
threshold on any particular day in a 20 year assessment simulation, the cumulative
diversion was considered locally unsustainable.
42- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Overburden Impacts
43- Assessment Scenarios
Overburden Aquifers
Layer 1 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Channel Aquifers
44- Assessment Scenarios
Empress Formation Aquifer
Layer 4 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Confined Aquifers
45- Assessment Scenarios
Viking/Pelican Aquifer
Layer 5 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Deep Aquifers
46- Assessment Scenarios
Grand Rapids Aquifer
Layer 8 Drawdowns
Percent of Total
Available Drawdown
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
GW Sustainability Assessment
 Cumulative GW drawdowns are significant, in particular in the lower
highly confined aquifer units
▪ Offset by the fact that lower units have much greater available drawdown
 On a watershed scale, GW drawdowns appear to broadly stabilize
within the 20 year period, suggesting sustainable water use
 Localized zones where drawdown exceed 50% of total available
drawdown
47- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SW Sustainability Assessment Criteria
 Alberta Desktop Method:
▪ Simulated frequency-duration relationship is calculated for every reach under baseline conditions
▪ The discharge that is exceeded 80% of the time is the ecosystem baseflow (EBF) component.
 ADM Criteria 1:
▪ No surface water diversions are allowed below the 80% EBF threshold
• No diversion allowed when flow is below the lowest flows that occur up to 20% of the time.
 ADM Criteria 2:
▪ Above the 80% EBF threshold, up to 15% of the available flow can be diverted.
 20 year Baseline simulation used to determine weekly EBF threshold in every stream reach
48- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SW Sustainability Assessment Criteria
 Frequency-duration relationship calculated in the watercourse in a
natural state.
 EBF Weekly Threshold for Mackay River at Fort McKay:
49- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
SW Sustainability Assessment
 Threshold for Mackay River at Fort McKay shown
▪ ADM Criteria 1 - fails for select days, as shown in red
▪ ADM Criteria 2 - never more than 15% diverted
 Numerous other stream locations also assessed
50- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Local SW Effects
 While the overall watershed
passes the ADM criteria at the
Mackay outfall point, local streams
fail the 15% ADM criteria
▪ i.e. GW diversions locally induce
leakage that exceeds 15% of the EBF
(ecological baseflow)
51- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Sustainability Assessment Conclusions
 In summary, the analysis indicates that projected water use in the study area is broadly
sustainable, from both a groundwater and surface water aspect, on a watershed scale.
 This conclusion is supported by two findings:
▪ Results indicate that drawdowns do not, on a watershed scale, appear to grow over time
▪ Accumulated streamflow losses do not exceed the 15% ADM threshold along the main channel of the Mackay
and Dover Rivers.
 The results do indicate, however, that under the full build scenario, cumulative
groundwater diversions appeared to create unsustainable local impacts, as measured by
both the groundwater drawdown and ADM thresholds.
52- Assessment Scenarios
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Water Budget Comparisons
53- Assessment Scenarios
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Flows(mm/yr)
Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Pre-Development Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Flows(mm/yr)
Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Full Build Conditions
Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
 Pre-development shows how wet and dry years replenish and deplete storage (royal blue)
 Full build scenario shows greater fluctuations in storage
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Water Budget Comparisons
 Winter pumping depletes storage, replenished by April recharge.
54- Assessment Scenarios
Full-Build ConditionsBaseline Conditions
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Other Insights
 Winter pumping under frozen ground
conditions depletes shallow aquifer storage
 Baseflow discharge in May is reduced by
50% due to freshet replenishment of shallow
aquifer storage.
 Understanding seasonal and inter-annual
storage is essential
55- Assessment Scenarios
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
AverageMonthlyGroundwaterDischargeto
Streams(mm/year)
Pre-Development
Full Build
Average Monthly GW
Discharge to Streams
Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed
Overall Conclusions
56- Recommendations for Phase 3
 Detailed, fully integrated SW/GW modelling can provide significant insight
into both cumulative effects and watershed function.
 Numerous applications – Local impact assessment, water budgeting,
climate change, drought assessment, eco-hydrology and water
management.

More Related Content

What's hot

Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...
Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...
Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...
Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...
Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Thermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate Extraction
Thermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate ExtractionThermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate Extraction
Thermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate ExtractionDirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...
Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...
Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...
Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...
Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Assessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated Modelling
Assessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated ModellingAssessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated Modelling
Assessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated ModellingDirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...
A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...
A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Data Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated Modelling
Data Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated ModellingData Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated Modelling
Data Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated ModellingDirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...
Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...
Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model CalibrationIssues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model CalibrationDirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...
Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...
Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model CalibrationIssues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model CalibrationDirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...
Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...
Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...
Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...
Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Transient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel Dewatering
Transient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel DewateringTransient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel Dewatering
Transient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel DewateringDirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...
Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...
Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Estimation of Groundwater Recharge Using WetSpass and MODFLOW
Estimation of Groundwater Recharge  Using WetSpass and MODFLOWEstimation of Groundwater Recharge  Using WetSpass and MODFLOW
Estimation of Groundwater Recharge Using WetSpass and MODFLOWPutika Ashfar Khoiri
 
Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1
Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1
Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1john Kassenaar
 

What's hot (20)

Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...
Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...
Applications of Integrated Models to Watershed and Sub-Watershed Scale Analys...
 
Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...
Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...
Integrated Modelling with GSFLOW in a Complex Watershed on the Niagara Escarp...
 
Thermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate Extraction
Thermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate ExtractionThermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate Extraction
Thermal Impact Assessment of Below-Water-Table Aggregate Extraction
 
Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...
Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...
Analysis of Groundwater/Surface Water Interaction at the Site Scale Babcock R...
 
Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...
Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...
Topography and the Spatial Distribution of Groundwater Recharge and Evapotran...
 
Assessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated Modelling
Assessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated ModellingAssessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated Modelling
Assessing Cumulative Effects with Integrated Modelling
 
A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...
A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...
A New Methodology for Identifying Ecologically Significant Groundwater Rechar...
 
Data Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated Modelling
Data Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated ModellingData Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated Modelling
Data Management and Calibration Strategies for Integrated Modelling
 
Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...
Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...
Applications of Integrated Surface Water Groundwater Modelling Techniques and...
 
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model CalibrationIssues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
 
Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...
Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...
Incorporating a Dynamic Irrigation Demand Module into an Integrated Surface ...
 
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model CalibrationIssues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
Issues and Strategies for Integrated Model Calibration
 
Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...
Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...
Analysis of Low Impact Development (LID) Strategies using Fully-Integrated Fu...
 
Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...
Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...
Assessing Sensitivity to Drought and Climate Change with an Integrated Surfac...
 
Transient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel Dewatering
Transient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel DewateringTransient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel Dewatering
Transient Modelling of Groundwater Flow, Application to Tunnel Dewatering
 
Assessment of Low Impact Design (LID)
Assessment of Low Impact Design (LID)Assessment of Low Impact Design (LID)
Assessment of Low Impact Design (LID)
 
Watertech Booth Slide 2013
Watertech Booth Slide 2013Watertech Booth Slide 2013
Watertech Booth Slide 2013
 
Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...
Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...
Dusting Off the Source Water Protection Models: Adaptation and Application of...
 
Estimation of Groundwater Recharge Using WetSpass and MODFLOW
Estimation of Groundwater Recharge  Using WetSpass and MODFLOWEstimation of Groundwater Recharge  Using WetSpass and MODFLOW
Estimation of Groundwater Recharge Using WetSpass and MODFLOW
 
Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1
Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1
Dirk Kassenaar Earthfx watertech 2016 presentation v1
 

Viewers also liked

Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...
Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...
Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...
Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...
Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...Dirk Kassenaar M.Sc. P.Eng.
 
Meta consolidado de educacion artistica efrain ichpas paquiyauri
Meta consolidado de educacion artistica  efrain ichpas paquiyauriMeta consolidado de educacion artistica  efrain ichpas paquiyauri
Meta consolidado de educacion artistica efrain ichpas paquiyauriEfrain Ichpas Paquiyauri
 
Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni...
 Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni... Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni...
Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni...Luqman Praditio
 
Long term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodology
Long term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodologyLong term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodology
Long term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodologyForest Trees Sentinel Landscapes
 
Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?
Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?
Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?Luqman Praditio
 
Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...
Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...
Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...Forest Trees Sentinel Landscapes
 
Financial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company Performance
Financial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company PerformanceFinancial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company Performance
Financial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company PerformanceLuqman Praditio
 
CV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef Students
CV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef StudentsCV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef Students
CV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef Studentstony smith
 
Stream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities
Stream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and OpportunitiesStream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities
Stream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and OpportunitiesForest Trees Sentinel Landscapes
 
Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...
Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...
Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...Forest Trees Sentinel Landscapes
 
Investment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit Bangkok
Investment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit BangkokInvestment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit Bangkok
Investment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit Bangkoktryb
 

Viewers also liked (19)

Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...
Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...
Analyses of Low Impact Development Strategies using Continuous Fully-Distribu...
 
Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...
Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...
Characterizing Change of High Frequency Return Periods in Urbanizing Southern...
 
Meta consolidado de educacion artistica efrain ichpas paquiyauri
Meta consolidado de educacion artistica  efrain ichpas paquiyauriMeta consolidado de educacion artistica  efrain ichpas paquiyauri
Meta consolidado de educacion artistica efrain ichpas paquiyauri
 
Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni...
 Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni... Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni...
Europian Commission’s Humanitarian Aid Department sebagai Komisi Bantuan Uni...
 
Long term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodology
Long term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodologyLong term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodology
Long term socio ecological research sites for CRP6 – designing the methodology
 
Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?
Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?
Apa Peran NGO Untuk Mengurangi Kemiskinan?
 
Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...
Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...
Climate Smart Territories in Central America: Nicacentral and Trifinio (MAPNo...
 
Linking Household to other data
Linking Household to other dataLinking Household to other data
Linking Household to other data
 
Financial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company Performance
Financial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company PerformanceFinancial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company Performance
Financial Analysis as an Instrument In Predicting The Company Performance
 
Using IFRI data: Two examples
Using IFRI data: Two examplesUsing IFRI data: Two examples
Using IFRI data: Two examples
 
CV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef Students
CV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef StudentsCV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef Students
CV Tony Smith - Lecturer Chef Students
 
Oil palm: Landscapes, market chains and investment flows
Oil palm: Landscapes, market chains and investment flowsOil palm: Landscapes, market chains and investment flows
Oil palm: Landscapes, market chains and investment flows
 
Stream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities
Stream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and OpportunitiesStream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities
Stream 2: Tackling Climate Change Challenges and Opportunities
 
Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...
Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...
Central African Humid Tropics Sentinel Landscapes Transect (CAFHUT): Working ...
 
Investment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit Bangkok
Investment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit BangkokInvestment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit Bangkok
Investment Opportunities in FinTech - Techsauce Summit Bangkok
 
Mekong Sentinel Landscape
Mekong Sentinel LandscapeMekong Sentinel Landscape
Mekong Sentinel Landscape
 
10 Articles 20.3.16
10 Articles 20.3.1610 Articles 20.3.16
10 Articles 20.3.16
 
Lessons Western Ghats
Lessons Western GhatsLessons Western Ghats
Lessons Western Ghats
 
Dynamic growth
Dynamic growthDynamic growth
Dynamic growth
 

Similar to Assessing Cumulative Effects of SAGD Operations in the Mackay Watershed

Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...
Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...
Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...john Kassenaar
 
Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1
Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1
Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1PARITOSH SINGH CHAUHAN
 
Water resource model modflow
Water resource model modflowWater resource model modflow
Water resource model modflowManoj Patley
 
Exploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodia
Exploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodiaExploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodia
Exploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodiaCPWF Mekong
 
Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009
Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009
Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009Sequalitchew Creek Watershed Council
 
C2VSim Workshop 6 - Closing
C2VSim Workshop 6 - ClosingC2VSim Workshop 6 - Closing
C2VSim Workshop 6 - ClosingCharlie Brush
 
REMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
REMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELINGREMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
REMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELINGShyam Mohan Chaudhary
 
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modelling
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modellingUnderstanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modelling
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modellingAlex Nwoko
 
Carullo gsm 111314
Carullo gsm 111314Carullo gsm 111314
Carullo gsm 111314greenbelt82
 
WATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTI
WATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTIWATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTI
WATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTIPebri Nurhayati
 
DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...
DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...
DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...Deltares
 
Kissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama Rani
Kissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama RaniKissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama Rani
Kissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama RaniTWCA
 

Similar to Assessing Cumulative Effects of SAGD Operations in the Mackay Watershed (20)

Modflow Nepal
Modflow NepalModflow Nepal
Modflow Nepal
 
Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...
Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...
Integrated Groundwater/Surface Water Modelling to Assess Irrigation Demand an...
 
Nam Ngiep Hydropower Dam -- Climate Risk Assessment
Nam Ngiep Hydropower Dam -- Climate Risk Assessment Nam Ngiep Hydropower Dam -- Climate Risk Assessment
Nam Ngiep Hydropower Dam -- Climate Risk Assessment
 
Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1
Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1
Ground Water Modeling & Management_part1
 
Water and Productivity Impacts for the NBDC
Water and Productivity Impacts for the NBDCWater and Productivity Impacts for the NBDC
Water and Productivity Impacts for the NBDC
 
Mandal
MandalMandal
Mandal
 
Water resource model modflow
Water resource model modflowWater resource model modflow
Water resource model modflow
 
Exploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodia
Exploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodiaExploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodia
Exploring environmental flow regimes in the lower sesan in cambodia
 
Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009
Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009
Modeling analyses for fort lewis jblm drinking water system, aspect 2009
 
VNMC Mekong Dam Study: Modelling
VNMC Mekong Dam Study: ModellingVNMC Mekong Dam Study: Modelling
VNMC Mekong Dam Study: Modelling
 
Swat & modflow
Swat & modflowSwat & modflow
Swat & modflow
 
C2VSim Workshop 6 - Closing
C2VSim Workshop 6 - ClosingC2VSim Workshop 6 - Closing
C2VSim Workshop 6 - Closing
 
REMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
REMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELINGREMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
REMOTE SENSING DATA FOR HYDROLOGICAL MODELING
 
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modelling
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modellingUnderstanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modelling
Understanding Who is AT RISK - Flood extent modelling
 
Carullo gsm 111314
Carullo gsm 111314Carullo gsm 111314
Carullo gsm 111314
 
LSRWA Update July 2012
LSRWA Update July 2012LSRWA Update July 2012
LSRWA Update July 2012
 
Environmental flows: The concept and applications in India
Environmental flows: The concept and applications in IndiaEnvironmental flows: The concept and applications in India
Environmental flows: The concept and applications in India
 
WATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTI
WATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTIWATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTI
WATER QUALITY MODELING DR. YANTI
 
DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...
DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...
DSD-INT 2014 - Delft3D Users Meeting - Integrated Sediment Transport, Wave, a...
 
Kissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama Rani
Kissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama RaniKissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama Rani
Kissimmee Basin Modeling & Operations Study - Rama Rani
 

Recently uploaded

Class 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm System
Class 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm SystemClass 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm System
Class 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm Systemirfanmechengr
 
Sachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective Introduction
Sachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective IntroductionSachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective Introduction
Sachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective IntroductionDr.Costas Sachpazis
 
Transport layer issues and challenges - Guide
Transport layer issues and challenges - GuideTransport layer issues and challenges - Guide
Transport layer issues and challenges - GuideGOPINATHS437943
 
Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...
Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...
Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...Erbil Polytechnic University
 
home automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasad
home automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasadhome automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasad
home automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasadaditya806802
 
11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdf
11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdf11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdf
11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdfHafizMudaserAhmad
 
Main Memory Management in Operating System
Main Memory Management in Operating SystemMain Memory Management in Operating System
Main Memory Management in Operating SystemRashmi Bhat
 
THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONTHE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONjhunlian
 
Risk Management in Engineering Construction Project
Risk Management in Engineering Construction ProjectRisk Management in Engineering Construction Project
Risk Management in Engineering Construction ProjectErbil Polytechnic University
 
Crushers to screens in aggregate production
Crushers to screens in aggregate productionCrushers to screens in aggregate production
Crushers to screens in aggregate productionChinnuNinan
 
Correctly Loading Incremental Data at Scale
Correctly Loading Incremental Data at ScaleCorrectly Loading Incremental Data at Scale
Correctly Loading Incremental Data at ScaleAlluxio, Inc.
 
Crystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptx
Crystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptxCrystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptx
Crystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptxachiever3003
 
Katarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School Course
Katarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School CourseKatarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School Course
Katarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School Coursebim.edu.pl
 
Indian Dairy Industry Present Status and.ppt
Indian Dairy Industry Present Status and.pptIndian Dairy Industry Present Status and.ppt
Indian Dairy Industry Present Status and.pptMadan Karki
 
multiple access in wireless communication
multiple access in wireless communicationmultiple access in wireless communication
multiple access in wireless communicationpanditadesh123
 
Configuration of IoT devices - Systems managament
Configuration of IoT devices - Systems managamentConfiguration of IoT devices - Systems managament
Configuration of IoT devices - Systems managamentBharaniDharan195623
 
Virtual memory management in Operating System
Virtual memory management in Operating SystemVirtual memory management in Operating System
Virtual memory management in Operating SystemRashmi Bhat
 
Engineering Drawing section of solid
Engineering Drawing     section of solidEngineering Drawing     section of solid
Engineering Drawing section of solidnamansinghjarodiya
 
TechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor Catchers
TechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor CatchersTechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor Catchers
TechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor Catcherssdickerson1
 
Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...
Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...
Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...121011101441
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Class 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm System
Class 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm SystemClass 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm System
Class 1 | NFPA 72 | Overview Fire Alarm System
 
Sachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective Introduction
Sachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective IntroductionSachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective Introduction
Sachpazis Costas: Geotechnical Engineering: A student's Perspective Introduction
 
Transport layer issues and challenges - Guide
Transport layer issues and challenges - GuideTransport layer issues and challenges - Guide
Transport layer issues and challenges - Guide
 
Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...
Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...
Comparative study of High-rise Building Using ETABS,SAP200 and SAFE., SAFE an...
 
home automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasad
home automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasadhome automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasad
home automation using Arduino by Aditya Prasad
 
11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdf
11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdf11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdf
11. Properties of Liquid Fuels in Energy Engineering.pdf
 
Main Memory Management in Operating System
Main Memory Management in Operating SystemMain Memory Management in Operating System
Main Memory Management in Operating System
 
THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTIONTHE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
THE SENDAI FRAMEWORK FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION
 
Risk Management in Engineering Construction Project
Risk Management in Engineering Construction ProjectRisk Management in Engineering Construction Project
Risk Management in Engineering Construction Project
 
Crushers to screens in aggregate production
Crushers to screens in aggregate productionCrushers to screens in aggregate production
Crushers to screens in aggregate production
 
Correctly Loading Incremental Data at Scale
Correctly Loading Incremental Data at ScaleCorrectly Loading Incremental Data at Scale
Correctly Loading Incremental Data at Scale
 
Crystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptx
Crystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptxCrystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptx
Crystal Structure analysis and detailed information pptx
 
Katarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School Course
Katarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School CourseKatarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School Course
Katarzyna Lipka-Sidor - BIM School Course
 
Indian Dairy Industry Present Status and.ppt
Indian Dairy Industry Present Status and.pptIndian Dairy Industry Present Status and.ppt
Indian Dairy Industry Present Status and.ppt
 
multiple access in wireless communication
multiple access in wireless communicationmultiple access in wireless communication
multiple access in wireless communication
 
Configuration of IoT devices - Systems managament
Configuration of IoT devices - Systems managamentConfiguration of IoT devices - Systems managament
Configuration of IoT devices - Systems managament
 
Virtual memory management in Operating System
Virtual memory management in Operating SystemVirtual memory management in Operating System
Virtual memory management in Operating System
 
Engineering Drawing section of solid
Engineering Drawing     section of solidEngineering Drawing     section of solid
Engineering Drawing section of solid
 
TechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor Catchers
TechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor CatchersTechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor Catchers
TechTAC® CFD Report Summary: A Comparison of Two Types of Tubing Anchor Catchers
 
Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...
Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...
Instrumentation, measurement and control of bio process parameters ( Temperat...
 

Assessing Cumulative Effects of SAGD Operations in the Mackay Watershed

  • 1. Assessing Cumulative Effects of SAGD Operations in the Mackay Watershed Dirk Kassenaar, E.J. Wexler, P.J. Thompson, M. Takeda Earthfx Inc. Watertech 2016 April 7, 2015
  • 2. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Introduction  In-situ Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) oil sand operations require a source of fresh water for steam injection.  Groundwater supply wells, generally drawing from aquifers above the oil production zone, are a preferred source. 2- Introduction From MEG Energy Corp.
  • 3. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Study Objectives  In 2014, Earthfx Inc. was hired by the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) to answer the following question: ▪ Is there enough water in the Mackay watershed to sustain a responsible level of development  Cumulative effects analysis requires the integrated assessment of: ▪ Multiple anthropogenic stresses: • Numerous spatially distributed SW and GW diversions • Land use change (land clearing, drill pads, roads, etc.) ▪ Intersecting effects on surface and groundwater systems: • Changes in groundwater levels (drawdowns) in all aquifer systems • Changes to frequency, duration and severity of low flow conditions 3- Introduction
  • 4. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Study Area  MacKay River Watershed is located immediately north-west of Fort McMurrray, AB ▪ Includes Syncrude Mine site and numerous SAGD operations  Watershed Area: 5,600 km2  Model Area: 7,900 km2 4- Summary of Model Development Legend Lake Namur Lake
  • 5. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Study Approach  Step 1: Integrated Model Development and Calibration ▪ Model Development: Compile Geology, Hydrogeology, Climate, Hydrology, Hydraulics ▪ Model Calibration: • Build and pre-calibrate the SW and GW submodels • Complete the fully integrated model calibration: Full reconciliation of entire hydrologic cycle water budget  Step 2: Sustainability Assessment ▪ Define Assessment Criteria and Climate Period • Define aquifer drawdown and streamflow impact sustainability thresholds • Select a representative “surrogate” climate assessment period (25 years) ▪ Simulate Pre-development (Baseline), Current and Full Build conditions over the climate period ▪ Compare, on a daily basis, Current and Full-build conditions against Baseline • Evaluate GW drawdowns and streamflow changes against Assessment Criteria 5- Introduction
  • 6. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed MODELLING APPROACH 6- Modelling Approach
  • 7. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Integrated Modelling Approach: Advantages  Study Approach: Fully integrated surface water and groundwater model  Better representation of: ▪ Groundwater recharge and Dunnian GW feedback ▪ Streamflow and induced leakage ▪ SW/GW storage ▪ Cumulative effects of all SW and GW diversions  Flux inputs and calibration targets ▪ Measured precipitation as input ▪ Calibration to total streamflow and measured GW levels 7- Modelling Approach
  • 8. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Selected Model: USGS GSFLOW  USGS integrated GW/SW model ▪ Based on MODFLOW-NWT and PRMS (Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System) ▪ Open-source, proven and very well documented ▪ Fully-distributed: Cell-based representation ▪ Excellent balance of hydrology, hydraulics and GW 8- Modelling Approach
  • 9. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed SUMMARY OF MACKAY MODEL DEVELOPMENT 9- Summary of Model Development
  • 10. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Study Area Features  Topography (600 m of relief) ▪ Birch Mountains ▪ Thickwood Hills  Incised river and stream network ▪ MacKay River – main channel ▪ Dover and Dunkirk Tributaries ▪ Athabasca River: South and eastern boundary  Legend and Namur Lakes ▪ Plus over 100 other lakes in study area  Extensive muskeg and wetlands  Bedrock Channel Aquifers ▪ Key GW supply source for multiple projects  Anthropogenic Stresses ▪ Syncrude Mine ▪ SW and GW Diversions 10- Summary of Model Development AMBI, 2013)
  • 11. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GSFLOW: Multi-Resolution  GSFLOW is unique in that the resolution of the model can be adjusted to match key features 11 Climate inputs ( 2.5 km cells) Surface Hydrology/Soil Zone ( 200x200 m cells) Sub-surface Hydrogeologic Layers ( 13 layers of 400x400 m cells) Stream Network Linear 1-D Channel segments (4000 km of streams represented, independent of grid resolution) - Summary of Model Development
  • 12. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Model Grid  Fully distributed model: Every cell has unique properties  GW grid: 400 m by 400 m cells ▪ Selected to match assessment averaging criteria (impact at 150 m from a well) but avoid focus on specific water users. ▪ Can be refined for future studies  SW Grid: 200x200 m cells ▪ Improved representation of overland flow, wetlands, interflow and soil zone processes and properties  Stream routing: ▪ All streams and rivers simulated 12- Summary of Model Development 400x400 m GW grid
  • 13. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Geologic Setting 13- Summary of Model Development Surficial Geology Bedrock Geology Predominantly tills and glaciolacustrine deposits Subcrop of units that dip to the southwest
  • 14. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Geologic Information 14- Summary of Model Development  Primary sources for geologic borehole data: 25,000 - Alberta Geological Survey 255 - Atlas (Western Canada Sedimentary Basin)  Limited geologic data in Birch Mountains and central portion of study area
  • 15. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Conceptual Stratigraphic Model 15- Summary of Model Development After AGS Source: Andriashek and Atkinson, 2007 Empress Channel Sands: Key water supply aquifer
  • 16. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Hydrostrat. Layers 16- Summary of Model Development  19 layer strat. model used to produce 17 layer hydrostrat. model. ▪ Some units of similar hydraulic properties were combined. ▪ McMurray Basal Sands added as separate aquifer unit.  Model does not extend below Prairie Fm. Aquiclude ▪ Assumed minimal communication due to low vertical K of unit. ▪ Simulating higher salinities (>50,000 mg/L TDS) would require density dependent groundwater flow. Period Unit Stratigraphic Model Unit Hydrostratigraphic Model Quaternary 1 Late Lacustrine 1 Aquitard 2 Surface Sand 2 Aquifer 3 Grand Centre Till 3 Aquitard 4 Middle Sands 4 Aquifer 5 Intermediate Till 5 Aquitard 6 Empress Channel Sands 6 Aquifer Cretaceous 7 Labiche Formation 7 Aquitard 8 Pelican/Viking Formation 8 Aquifer 9 Joli Fou Formation 9 Aquitard 10 Grand Rapids Formation 10 Aquifer 11 Clearwater Formation 11 Aquitard 12 Wabiskaw Formation 13 McMurray Formation (includes Basal Sands) 12 Aquitard 13 Basal Sand Aquifer Devonian 14 Winterburn Formation (not included) 15 Grosmont Formation 14 Aquifer 16 Lower Ireton Formation 15 Aquitard 17 Cooking Lake Formation 16 Aquifer 18 Beaverhill Lake Group 17 Aquitard 19 Watt Mountain Formation (Top of Elk Point Group) Base of Model Prairie Formation (not included) Keg River Formation Contact Rapids Formation Laloche Formation Precambrian
  • 17. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GW Level Data  803 wells with water level data  Well assigned to hydrostrat. units based on screened intervals.  Limited long term temporal monitoring data (GOWN) 17- Summary of Model Development
  • 18. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Groundwater Submodel Calibration 18- Summary of Model Development Unit Number of Wells (n) ME (m) MAE (m) RMSE (m) Range in Observations (m) RMSE as Percent of Range (%) Overburden 236 -1.36 4.40 7.18 509.4 1.4% Empress 58 -7.01 8.33 2.89 189.5 1.5% Labiche 4 24.50 25.53 32.78 176.3 18.6% Viking 42 -9.04 10.67 12.65 38.9 32.5% Joli Fou 10 -5.24 9.44 10.46 28.5 36.8% Grand Rapids 53 -8.45 8.58 11.58 94.7 12.2% Clearwater 114 -5.55 8.97 12.06 188.6 6.4% McMurray 71 0.56 11.47 19.50 279.7 7.0% Cooking Lake 2 62.09 89.00 108.52 198.3 54.7% Overall 590 -3.35 7.86 13.55 524.6 2.6% 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Simulated(masl) Observed (masl) Overburden Empress Fm. Labiche Aquitard Viking Aquifer Joli Fou Aquitard Grand Rapids Aquifer Clearwater Aquitard McMurray Aquifer/Aquitard Cooking Lake Aquifer 1:1 Error Intervals (±10 m)  Steady-state submodel calibration.  Better calibration in aquifers where data more plentiful.
  • 19. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Hydrologic Submodel Development (PRMS)  Based on the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) code  Fully distributed implementation  200m x 200m cells (196,832 unique cell HRUs) 19- Summary of Model Development In each unique cell:
  • 20. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Climate Inputs  Precipitation and temperature interpolated on a daily basis over a 2.5km x 2.5km grid ▪ Inverse distance squared weighting  25 year daily climate time series input for each grid cell 20- Summary of Model Development
  • 21. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Vegetative Cover Classes  26 wetland and vegetative cover classes ▪ 17 types of wetlands  Model parameters assigned by class: ▪ Seasonal Cover density ▪ Vegetation indices ▪ Soil zone properties ▪ Overland flow and shallow interflow parameters 21- Summary of Model Development
  • 22. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Overland Flow  Overland flow and interflow simulated with a topographically defined cascade network  200x200m cell representation 22- Summary of Model Development
  • 23. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Lateral Flow Processes 23- Summary of Model Development PRMS Soil Zone MODFLOW Layer 1 MODFLOW Layer 2 • Head Dependant • Saturation Dependant
  • 24. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Dunnian Flow Processes: SW/GW Feedback 24- Summary of Model Development  Groundwater feedback dominates in discharge areas, wetlands and shallow aquifers ▪ GW feedback in up to 60% of the watershed  Complex transient runoff and rejected recharge ▪ Occurs when the water table is at or near surface ▪ Spatially controlled: Tends to occur in stream valley areas ▪ Seasonally controlled: Tends to occur in spring when WT is high  GW discharge to the soil zone can become interflow or overland flow  Overland flow can re-infiltrate downslope: “3D recharge” Unsaturated zone StreamStream Gravity drainage Recharge Ground-water flow
  • 25. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Frozen Ground  New frozen ground module developed for this study ▪ GSFLOW is Open Source!  Based on a modified form of the Stefan Equation ▪ Derived by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers  Model code follows Emerson (1994) 25- Summary of Model Development 𝑋𝑓 = 86,400𝐾𝑓 𝐼𝑓 𝐿 + 𝐶 𝑇𝑎 + 𝐼𝑓 2𝑡 0.5 𝑋𝑓 = 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑡ℎ 𝑜𝑓 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝐾𝑓 = 𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝐼𝑓 = 𝑓𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑑𝑒𝑔𝑟𝑒𝑒 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠 𝐿 = 𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝐶 = 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐 ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑇𝑎 = 𝑚𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑠𝑜𝑖𝑙 𝑡𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑡 = 𝑑𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑓𝑟𝑒𝑒𝑧𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑤ℎ𝑒𝑟𝑒
  • 26. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Frozen Ground Response  Frozen soil dynamics affect both surface and subsurface processes: ▪ SW Runoff and Recharge: Enhanced runoff during spring freshet, no winter recharge ▪ GW Discharge: Significantly reduced winter discharge to streams and wetlands 26- Summary of Model Development
  • 27. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Model Calibration and Validation  Calibrated then verified against over 38 year period  A range of hydroclimatic conditions simulated 27- Summary of Model Development Validation Calibration
  • 28. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Model Calibration and Validation  Hydrologic submodel and the final integrated model were calibrated against streamflow observations at 6 Water Survey (EC) and RAMP stations  Historical observations at discontinued stations were an important source of insight 28- Summary of Model Development
  • 29. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Model Calibration and Validation  Good match to streamflow observations at study area gauges  Daily Nash-Sutcliffe 0.65  Monthly Nash-Sutcliffe 0.75  Good match to validation period: Model has adequate predictive power 29- Summary of Model Development
  • 30. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Distributed Results 30- Summary of Model Development
  • 31. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Distributed Results (GSFLOW) 31- Summary of Model Development
  • 32. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GSFLOW GW/SW Outputs 32- Summary of Model Development April May
  • 33. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GW/SW Animation  Animation shows spring melt and changes in GW levels and streamflow  Click for Animation 33- Summary of Model Development
  • 34. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GSFLOW Outputs  Spring change in water levels and streamflow 34- Summary of Model Development
  • 35. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GSFLOW Outputs  Spring change in water levels and streamflow  Click for Animation 35- Summary of Model Development
  • 36. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GSFLOW GW/SW Water Budgets Significant inter-annual and seasonal storage effects. 36- Summary of Model Development -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg Flows(mm/month) Monthly Average GW Inflows and Outflows - Pre-Development Conditions Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surf Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Flows(mm/yr) Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Pre-Development Conditions Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage
  • 37. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Model Development Conclusions  The Mackay GSFLOW model represents the complex transient surface and subsurface process and their interaction and feedback  Extensive submodel development and integrated model calibration was undertaken to all available data  Key aspect of the integrated model calibration: ▪ Directly measured flux input: Precipitation ▪ Directly observed calibration targets: Total measured streamflow and GW heads ▪ Overall water budget must balance – no water is gained or lost 37- Summary of Model Development
  • 38. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed ASSESSMENT SCENARIOS: CRITERIA AND RESULTS 38- Assessment Scenarios
  • 39. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Diversion Scenarios  Baseline: No pumping  Current Conditions: ▪ 4 Operations including 11 pumped wells.  Full-Build Conditions: ▪ 14 Operations including 42 pumped wells. 39- Assessment Scenarios Current Operations Current Operations Current Operations
  • 40. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Land Use Change  Processing facilities and well pads ▪ Assumed to be 100m by 100m gravel pads spaced 500m on center ▪ Reduced ET, due to the loss of vegetation, increased runoff  Full Build Scenario: ▪ Drill pads are estimated to cover 6% of the planned project areas; ▪ Roads, pipelines, and facilities cover another 4%. 40- Recommendations for Phase 3
  • 41. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Assessment Climate Period  25 year period includes a range of hydroclimatic conditions ▪ Includes both wet years (1997) and drought years (1998-1999, 2009 and 2011). ▪ 5 year spin-up period before start of assessment 41 Surrogate Climate Period - Assessment Scenarios
  • 42. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GW Sustainability Assessment Criteria  In summary, it was agreed that the sustainable drawdown is 50% of the available drawdown in a confined aquifer. ▪ Threshold selection based on the Alberta Environment Water Conservation and Allocation Guideline for Oilfield Injection (AENV, 2006) ▪ For unconfined aquifers, 66% of the average saturated thickness was used. ▪ Available drawdown based on average water level determined by 20 year baseline simulation.  Assessment Process: all three scenarios run using the same climate inputs ▪ Only difference is diversions and land use change ▪ Daily outputs for every model cell and stream reach saved for comparison • Drawdown calculation • Alberta Desktop Assessment  If, under Current or Full-build development conditions, drawdowns exceeded this threshold on any particular day in a 20 year assessment simulation, the cumulative diversion was considered locally unsustainable. 42- Assessment Scenarios
  • 43. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Overburden Impacts 43- Assessment Scenarios Overburden Aquifers Layer 1 Drawdowns Percent of Total Available Drawdown
  • 44. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Channel Aquifers 44- Assessment Scenarios Empress Formation Aquifer Layer 4 Drawdowns Percent of Total Available Drawdown
  • 45. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Confined Aquifers 45- Assessment Scenarios Viking/Pelican Aquifer Layer 5 Drawdowns Percent of Total Available Drawdown
  • 46. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Deep Aquifers 46- Assessment Scenarios Grand Rapids Aquifer Layer 8 Drawdowns Percent of Total Available Drawdown
  • 47. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed GW Sustainability Assessment  Cumulative GW drawdowns are significant, in particular in the lower highly confined aquifer units ▪ Offset by the fact that lower units have much greater available drawdown  On a watershed scale, GW drawdowns appear to broadly stabilize within the 20 year period, suggesting sustainable water use  Localized zones where drawdown exceed 50% of total available drawdown 47- Assessment Scenarios
  • 48. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed SW Sustainability Assessment Criteria  Alberta Desktop Method: ▪ Simulated frequency-duration relationship is calculated for every reach under baseline conditions ▪ The discharge that is exceeded 80% of the time is the ecosystem baseflow (EBF) component.  ADM Criteria 1: ▪ No surface water diversions are allowed below the 80% EBF threshold • No diversion allowed when flow is below the lowest flows that occur up to 20% of the time.  ADM Criteria 2: ▪ Above the 80% EBF threshold, up to 15% of the available flow can be diverted.  20 year Baseline simulation used to determine weekly EBF threshold in every stream reach 48- Assessment Scenarios
  • 49. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed SW Sustainability Assessment Criteria  Frequency-duration relationship calculated in the watercourse in a natural state.  EBF Weekly Threshold for Mackay River at Fort McKay: 49- Assessment Scenarios
  • 50. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed SW Sustainability Assessment  Threshold for Mackay River at Fort McKay shown ▪ ADM Criteria 1 - fails for select days, as shown in red ▪ ADM Criteria 2 - never more than 15% diverted  Numerous other stream locations also assessed 50- Assessment Scenarios
  • 51. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Local SW Effects  While the overall watershed passes the ADM criteria at the Mackay outfall point, local streams fail the 15% ADM criteria ▪ i.e. GW diversions locally induce leakage that exceeds 15% of the EBF (ecological baseflow) 51- Assessment Scenarios
  • 52. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Sustainability Assessment Conclusions  In summary, the analysis indicates that projected water use in the study area is broadly sustainable, from both a groundwater and surface water aspect, on a watershed scale.  This conclusion is supported by two findings: ▪ Results indicate that drawdowns do not, on a watershed scale, appear to grow over time ▪ Accumulated streamflow losses do not exceed the 15% ADM threshold along the main channel of the Mackay and Dover Rivers.  The results do indicate, however, that under the full build scenario, cumulative groundwater diversions appeared to create unsustainable local impacts, as measured by both the groundwater drawdown and ADM thresholds. 52- Assessment Scenarios
  • 53. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Water Budget Comparisons 53- Assessment Scenarios -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Flows(mm/yr) Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Pre-Development Conditions Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Flows(mm/yr) Simulated Inflows and Outflows by Water Year - Full Build Conditions Lake Seepage Stream Leakage Surface Leakage Recharge Wells Net Const. Head Net Storage  Pre-development shows how wet and dry years replenish and deplete storage (royal blue)  Full build scenario shows greater fluctuations in storage
  • 54. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Water Budget Comparisons  Winter pumping depletes storage, replenished by April recharge. 54- Assessment Scenarios Full-Build ConditionsBaseline Conditions
  • 55. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Other Insights  Winter pumping under frozen ground conditions depletes shallow aquifer storage  Baseflow discharge in May is reduced by 50% due to freshet replenishment of shallow aquifer storage.  Understanding seasonal and inter-annual storage is essential 55- Assessment Scenarios 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec AverageMonthlyGroundwaterDischargeto Streams(mm/year) Pre-Development Full Build Average Monthly GW Discharge to Streams
  • 56. Review of Cumulative Impacts – MacKay River Watershed Overall Conclusions 56- Recommendations for Phase 3  Detailed, fully integrated SW/GW modelling can provide significant insight into both cumulative effects and watershed function.  Numerous applications – Local impact assessment, water budgeting, climate change, drought assessment, eco-hydrology and water management.