1. How to Do Effects Based Operations Doug Webster With the permission of Dr. Guy Duczynski
2. Overview – An Applied Process By Dr. Guy Duczynski DOTMLPF D 5 D 4 D 3 D 2 D 1 Effects Means Scenarios Capabilities End States Favorable Unfavorable Driver/Conditions Table Drivers & Conditions Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Faustian Tree D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
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14. Process – By the Pictures Drivers & Conditions Drivers & Conditions are defined and developed and then “ reduced” through comparison and cluster analysis D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
15. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) End-states Drivers & Conditions End states that express possible futures for these ingredients are then crafted . D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
16. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Scenarios End-states Scenarios give a vivid account of a situation, including the actors, locations, political, military, social, and economic ingredients. Drivers & Conditions D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5 S 3-4 U 3 P 5 R 3 E 5 M 2 S X-X U X P X R X-X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X-X U X P X R X-X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X-X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S 1 U 1 P 1 R 1 E 1 M 1 S 3-4 U 4 P 5 R 4 E 5 M 2-3 S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X
17. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Effects Scenarios End-state A range of effects are then developed and appropriately linked to their corresponding scenario relative to the appropriate end state. Drivers & Conditions D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
18. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Effects Means Scenarios End-states Drivers & Conditions One or more means are identified that make it possible or enable the achievement of each effect. D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
19. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Capabilities Effects Means Scenarios End-states Drivers & Conditions Each means is made possible by one or more abilities, capacities, and/or competencies. D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
20. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) DOTMLPF Capabilities Effects Means Scenarios End-states Drivers & Conditions Each ability, capacity, and/or competency is expressed as a unique configuration using the DOTMLPF framework. D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
21. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) DOTMLPF Effects Means Scenarios Capabilities End States Drivers & Conditions The reality is that there are multiple possible and probable drivers and conditions, end states, scenarios, effects, means, capabilities, and DOTMLPF cause and effect links associated with every threat (several and collective) to national security. Moreover, uncertainty with respect to unintended consequences and unexpected outcomes is a dominant part of the complex adaptive system of systems environment. D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
22. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Each of the lines that link the effects with the means can now be rated on a number of dimensions, for example: Political Exposure, Totality of Effect, Immediacy of Effect, and Capability to Undertake as a means of rating the dimensions of impact represented by each potential course of action.
23. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Exposing the Pairs to Ratings Effects Means Scenarios Capabilities DOTMLPF
24. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Finding the Dominant Elements Effects Means Scenarios Capabilities DOTMLPF This report displays the number of paths that can be traced from a single capability to a single effect. It highlights the means that make the most contribution.
25. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) This report displays the number of paths that can be traced from a single DOTMLPF element to a single Effect. It highlights the dominant elements. Finding the Dominant Elements (Cont’d) Effects Means Scenarios Capabilities DOTMLPF
26. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) The Means with the highest number of linked Effects has been positioned at the top. Graphed (Means-Capabilities) Report Capabilities Means The Capabilities that enable the means
27. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Having selected effects that are appropriate for the problem, planners are now able to project a line through all of the linked pairs accommodating overarching concerns or risks for decision-makers.
28. Process – By the Pictures (Cont’d) Political risk Cost Sustainability Totality Immediacy Ability A Search for alternatives to build a multi-dimensional picture of ‘ fitness for purpose’ that reveals the best combination of paired effects-means across multiple criteria.
29. Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Complete UNCLAS deliverable available on request.) The same Factors and Conditions array can be used to describe a nation. Factors and Conditions Array for North Korea
30. North Korea - Plausible Configurations Representative of the ‘prevailing’ conditions within North Korea. The ‘best’ set of conditions Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d)
31. ? ? ? ? ? ? End-States What do the President of the United States and Secretary of Defense want the situation to be when operations conclude – both military operations as well as those where the military is in support of other instruments of national power? What might an Iraq Factors-Conditions array look like? Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d)
32. Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d) Present Most Desirable Least Desirable More of the Same S 3-4 U 3 P 5 R 3 E 5 M 2 S X-X U X P X R X-X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X-X U X P X R X-X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X-X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X-X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S 1 U 1 P 1 R 1 E 1 M 1 S 3-4 U 4 P 5 R 4 E 5 M 2-3 S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X
33. This application of EBO is characterized by: S ocietal latitudes broadening U nification condition changing from adversarial to cooperative P olitical orientation moderating R elations with neighbors improving E conomic performance lifting M ilitary fixation diminishing Process – An Abbreviated “Notional” Example (Cont’d) S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X-X U X P X-X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X-X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X-X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S X U X P X R X E X M X S 1 U 1 P 1 R 1 E 1 M 1 S 3-4 U 3 P 5 R 3 E 5 M 2
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35. Summary DOTMLPF D 5 D 4 D 3 D 2 D 1 Effects Means Scenarios Capabilities End States Favorable Unfavorable Driver/Conditions Table Drivers & Conditions Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Faustian Tree D 5 D 4 D 1 D 3 D 2 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 6 C 3 C 5 C 1 C 2 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 1 C 2 C 4 C 3 C 5
