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Soldani 5 g tth and healthcare_vtc_spring_2017

5G to the Home and for Healthcare: Business Cases and Key Enabling Technologies

Soldani 5 g tth and healthcare_vtc_spring_2017

  1. 1. 1 © Nokia 2017 Customer Confidential 5G to the Home and for Healthcare VTC Spring 2017 5th June, 2017 Dr. David Soldani - Head of 5G Technology, e2e, Global, Nokia - Industry Professor, UTS, Australia
  2. 2. 2 © Nokia 2016 Application and 5G requirements 5G DEPLOYMENT AREAS Use cases Application description 5G requirements In Vehicle Infotainment Video-driven mass infotainment inside fast moving public and private vehicles Increased capacity (10/3 Gbps DL/UL) Lower latency forAR/ VR(< 5-10ms) Connected Vehicles Truck platooning as an entry point into autonomous driving solutions Ultra-low-latency and high reliability for extremesafety / security 5G hot spots (overlay) Virtual Reality streaming from event onto user devices on site at large scale Ultra-High throughput 1-2Gbps; lower latency (<10 ms) required for AR/VR; very high capacity (>500 Users/cell) 5G to home Fixed Wireless Access to homes (FWA) with low fiber penetration via 5G Fiber-like speeds to multiple 10s of households from one site Wireless Robotic Platforms Robots for Logistic, Cleaning, Monitoring, Manufacturing (Industry 4.0) and Surgery Ultra-reliable (failure rate <10−7) low E2E latency communication (5-25 ms) UAV Traffic Management Ultra-low-latency and highreliability for safety/security. Increased uplink capacity (10 Gbps UL) E2E fleet management for delivery drones: Traffic Management for UAV (TMUAV) Immersiveandinteractive experience Machine(Truck/Robot/Drone) asaServe
  3. 3. 3 © Nokia 2016 Smart City Applications and Requirements 5G DEPLOYMENT AREAS Use cases Application description 5G requirements Fleet mgmt.& Remote Vehicle monitoring Tracking of fleet vehicles, including real time remote vehicle diagnostics, location, driver behavior, etc. Low Tput, Low to Medium Latency Connected Emergency Vehicles Embarked mobile tele-medicine for remote/nomadic diagnostics, access to patient files, etc. High QoS via enhanced Tput for 2-way video (~10-20Mbps UL & DL) ; Very-low-latency andhighreliability for safety Mobile / Static Video Surveillance High resolution UL camera video surveillance, remote control (zoom, pan, etc.). Includes offender identification, Missing Person, etc. Very-High UL Tput andOverallCapacity, driven by camera resolution & units / cell (e.g. 15-20Mbps per camera). Very Low latency for high resolutionoffender identification Autonomous Driving Assistance Real Time support for Assisted Driving – traffic indications, warnings, map updates, etc. High Tput DL in high density traffic scenarios (~10Mbps / vehicle); Increased location positioning accuracy Emergency Responder (ER) Support Combined withsurveillance, video feed and tactical information available to Emergency Responders High DLTput (~15Mbps / responder), with high reliability and low E2E latency communication(<50ms e2e) Remote Out-patient Monitoring Very-low-latency and high reliability for safety/security; increased UL Tput (~20Mbps) Remote patient monitoring for out-of- premises care, includes wearables, tele- medicine ConnectedCars Health MonitoringPublicsafety Vehicle to Pedestrian Notification / Warnings Pedestrian awareness of vehicles (e.g. intersections) High density (e.g. intersections), Low V-to-P latency (< e2e 100ms)
  4. 4. This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals. 4 Confidential © Nokia 2016 5G deployment areas and use cases requiring 4.5, 4.9 and 5G connectivity 5G DEPLOYMENT AREAS 5G EXCLUSIVE USE CASES
  5. 5. 5 © Nokia 2016 - confidential Business case • 5G-to-home • Healthcare
  6. 6. This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals. 7 Confidential © Nokia 2016 5G -TO-HOME 100 Mbps DL BW/household sustained Height 9m mmWave One access antenna per household (indoor or outdoor) and WiFi distribution inside the home Feeder route Fiber distribution point mmWave Distribution Main difference with Fiber ttH is the last +/-100m 5GttH or Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) use case – Massive Broadband to the Home cmWave and mmWave radios (possibly with Massive MIMO) 5G to the Home
  7. 7. This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals. 8 Confidential © Nokia 2016 Detailed business model logic 5G-TO-HOME - BUSINESS MODEL 5G to the Home
  8. 8. 9 © Nokia 2016 Assumptions on the revenue calculation (1/2) 5G-TO-HOME - BUSINESS MODEL Chosen Option 5G to the Home Key revenue assumptions OptionsAssumptions Rationale Addressable households • We used 100k households in the example, but this has impact only on absolute numbers, not in payback 1 Fiber households, % • Based on historical data % 1 5 10 2015 Operator market share • Based on the historical data of 4G market share 2 % 1 10 20 4030 Take rate of the service • Based on the historical data of 4G market share 3 % 1 10 20 4030 Current year roll-out distribution % • Based on the 3GPP 5G release availability in late 2018 and SoC availabilities • 2019 - 10% • 2020 - 15% • 2021-25 - 15% 4
  9. 9. 10 © Nokia 2016 Assumptions on the revenue calculation (2/2) 5G-TO-HOME - BUSINESS MODEL 5G to the Home Key revenue assumptions OptionsAssumptions Rationale Households per site • Can be specified in the model5 Households/site 10 20 30 5040 Average ARPU per HH • Price per SLA based on the current ARPU level in the European market; Traffic mix estimate • Average ARPU 51.5€ • Average SLA of 285 Mbps/HH 6 SLA (Mbps) ARPU/month Traffic Mix 50 20€ 10% 100 30€ 20% 200 40€ 40% 300 50€ 10% 500 75€ 10% 1 000 150€ 10% Chosen Option Capacity per cell promised • 3 Cells/site assumed • Net tput per cell based on 2.5 overbooking ratio • Nokia Operator release (5G TF17A) promises 5Gbps/cell max Tput • First 3GPP release content not available – assumption: Tput > 5 Gbps N. households /site Average SLA/ Cell  2.5 overbooking 10 0.95 Gbps 0.38 Gbps 20 1.9 Gbps 0.76 Gbps 30 2.85 Gbps 1.14 Gbps 40 3.8 Gbps 1.52 Gbps 50 4.75 Gbps 1.9 Gbps 60 5.7 Gbps 2.28 Gbps 7 5G 200 MHz 500 MHz 2000 MHz4.0 Gbps 4x4 MIMO 10 Gbps 4x4 MIMO 20 Gbps 2x2 MIMO /10 per cell
  10. 10. 11 © Nokia 2016 Business case is highly sensitive to number of HHs/site and ARPU 5G-TO-HOME – BUSINESS MODEL 5G to the Home
  11. 11. 12 © Nokia 2016 - confidential Business case • 5G-to-home • Healthcare
  12. 12. This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals. 14 Confidential © Nokia 2016 Wireless Tele Surgery (WTS): A surgeon in one location performing an operation in another with the aid of a robot HEALTHCARE Connected Healthcare
  13. 13. This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals. 15 Confidential © Nokia 2016 100 ms (latency) / 30-50 Mb/s (encoded bit rate) / 10-7 (failure rate) < 25 ms (latency) / 30-50 Mb/s (encoded bit rate) / 10-7 (failure rate) 5 ms (latency) / 1 Gb/s (encoded bit rate) / 10-7 (failure rate) Target functional architecture/ technology Connected Health and Tele Care - Wireless Tele Surgery (WTS) Technologicaljustificationandspecification HapticHolographicAudio/Visual Tactile and light field support engine – cloud service intelligence Audio/Video Audio/Commands Core Network Audio/Video Audio/Commands Audio/Commands Audio/Video + Haptic feedback Audio/Commands Audio/Video + Haptic feedback Audio Light field (multi views) + Pressure field (ultrasound) Pressure field Light field (multi views) + Pressure field (ultrasound) Audio Pressure probe Ensuring SLA MEC Dedicated slice Public 5G option Connected Healthcare
  14. 14. 17 © Nokia 2016 Robotics with Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Edge Cloud WIRELESS ROBOTIC PLATFORMS • Use Cases: Logistic, Cleaning, Monitoring and Companion • No wireline connectivity between the mobile robotic platform and reasoning systems Connected Healthcare
  15. 15. This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals. 18 Confidential © Nokia 2016 Robotics with Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the Edge Cloud WIRELESS ROBOTIC PLATFORMS Connected Healthcare
  16. 16. This document contains preliminary options which are subject to appropriate information and/or consultation of the relevant employee representative body/ies where applicable and subject to necessary legal procedures and approvals. 19 Confidential © Nokia 2016 Parameters for the Operator and Care Service Provider business case calculations • From 2020 to 2029, the number of service robots in hospices, residential floors and homes is expected to grow year on year of 12%, 10% and 33%, respectively • In the operator case, we assumed a Discount Rate (PV) of 8%, an EBIDTA margin of 33%, an ARPU decline multiplier of 2%, an equipment price erosion multiplier of 8%, and an OPEX erosion multiplier of 1% • In the case of Care Provider, the corresponding cash flow (PV) in 2020-29 is derived assuming a Discount Rate (PV) of 8% and an EBIDTA Margin of 40% 5G for Telecare
  17. 17. 20 © Nokia 2016 Wireless Service Robot (WSR) implications for ID coverage HEALTHCARE – BUSINESS MODEL 5G for Telecare Robots replacement
  18. 18. 21 © Nokia 2016 Summary • 5G fundamental enabling technology for immersive and interactive experience and machine as a service • Operator business case: • Infotainment: Straightforward if 5G/LTE ARPU increases as 4G/3G did • Hotspots: Straightforward with 5+ events/month • 5G to the Home: Requires Average ARPU >40€ (Premium) and 30+HH/site • Platooning: Needs partnership with OEM and logistic companies, and two digits share of savings to the operator • Wireless service robots: B2B is where a RoI business can be easily made, as long as the price a month to lease the robot is much cheaper than hiring people • Smooth evolution from PoC, 5GTF (KT/VzW), to 3GPP NSA/SA R15/16 compliant offering with Nokia AirScale/AirFrame 5G ready products
  19. 19. 22 © Nokia 2017 Customer Confidential
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