This presentation from Dr. Benoit Lefevre, World Resources Institute, looks at the benefits of the 2050 Global Calculator of CO2 - GHG emissions for the world.
The 2050 Global Calculator, currently in Beta Test, enables users to experiment with many different ways of reducing CO2-equivalent emissions. For example, users can boost energy supply by building more nuclear and wind turbines, or they can reduce energy demand by insulating people’s homes and changing travel behaviour. It is published by a set of partners including EMBARQ at the World Resources Institute (WRI) and the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change.
You can access the Global Calculator here: www.globalcalculator.org
More information on EMBARQ.org
4. Global
Calculator
DECC: From National Calculators to Global
Calculator
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
UK 2050
Calculator
published
UK Calculator
used to inform
Carbon Plan
Chinese govt start
work on 2050
Calculator
ICF approval for
2050 Calculator
project
Launch of Chinese
Calculator
South Africa, Brazil,
Bangladesh all start
work
Global Calculator
team to start
work
10 developing
countries developed
2050 Calculators
Launch of Global
Calculator
Aim
Achieved
5. Global
Calculator
The UK set a legal requirement to reduce its emissions
by 80% by 2050 from 1990 levels
Can we meet our targets
without using nuclear?
What proportion of energy
might the UK import in
2050?
Will we still be able to fly?
What might be the impact
on the UK landscape?
How much will it
cost?
How much bioenergy
can the UK produce?
How can we deal with
intermittency of
renewables?
Despite having sophisticated optimising models, the UK built its “2050 Calculator”
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7. Global
Calculator
The UK Calculator has had an impact within and
outside of government
Informing UK Government energy
strategy
• Electricity market reform
• Heat strategy
• Bioenergy strategy
• Carbon Plan 2011
• Urgent analysis (e.g. for Cabinet
ministers, and post Fukushima)
Energising debate among NGOs,
businesses and politicians
• Expert pathways
• Calculator adopted as an analytical
and educational tool
• Briefing for MPs,
and cited in Hansard
Within government Outside government
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8. Global
Calculator
Other countries are making good progress on their
country-level 2050 Calculators
Published:
Work in
progress:
Close to
starting:
In discussion:
UK Belgium China South Korea
South Africa BrazilBangladesh
India Indonesi
a
NigeriaPoland Russia France
Taiwan
Algeria
Hungary Serbia and SEEJapan
Mexico
ICF supported
ThailandVietnam
USA Philippines Ethiopia
Colombia
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9. Global
Calculator
• The Chines Planning Commission used their National Calculator to coherence
of their 5-year plan: would there be enough supply to meet demand if they
stopped building coal power plants?
• The tool will support the forthcoming publication of “China Energy Outlook”
• This series publications won high praise for both academic and practical
value, http://eri.org.cn/news_zj.php?cid27=&aid=2172
11. Global
Calculator
Why a Global Calculator ?
11
A difficulty with the current suite of global climate and energy models is that they
tend not to be very user friendly. For example, MARKAL screenshot:
So DECC decided to build a Global Calculator model.
12. Global
Calculator
Consortium
Sophie Hartfield
Team leader, (DECC)
Tom Bain
Lead modeller
(DECC)
Erica
Thompson
Climate
science and
impacts
(LSE)
Julien
Pestiaux
Transport
Alexandre
Strapasson
Land/bio/food
(ICL)
Anindya
Bhattacharya
Electricity and
fossil fuels
(E&Y)
Ephraim
Broschkowski
Visuals
(CMF)
Zhang Bo
Buildings
(Chinese
ERD/ERI)
Davide D’Ambrosio IEA support on data, peer review and stakeholder engagement
Michel Cornet
Materials
(Climact)
Support from Climate-KIC partners: Utrecht University,
Netherlands; Potsdam Institute, Germany; Walker
Institute, UK; Rothamsted Research, UK; University of
Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, France; Met
Office, UK; and Tyndall Centre, UK.
Funded by
Climate-KIC
Benoit Lefevre (WRI)
Erin Cooper (WRI)
Markus
Wrobel
(CMF)
Jeremy Woods and
Nicole Kalas (ICL and
Climate-KIC)
13. Global
Calculator
14
Added value of Global Calculator
• User-friendly
• Transparent
• Gives a cross-sectoral view in one glance
• Gives global perspective
• Shows trade-offs between policies
• Unlike national calculators, global calculator is constrained by
availability of materials
14. Global
Calculator
Scenario analysis tool for showing how global energy,
land and food system “adds up” and showing the
business opportunities that could arise from
decarbonisation. e.g.
• Industry: if big shift to recycling and more durable
products, what does this mean for industrial
production?
• Transport: what’s the size of the potential future
market for EVs (would there be enough rare earth
materials to manufacture vehicle batteries)?
• Food: what’s the global availability of land for food vs
bioenergy, and what might this mean for production
methods?
It will help answer questions of interest to
businesses…
Multinational
businesses
User Questions answered
15
15. Global
Calculator
Show at a glance how pathways from other models
compare (e.g. IEA 2, 4 and 6D pathways).
Develop and promote a global eco-wide vision /
pathway for a sustainable future
… and NGOs and governments
To make the case for tackling climate change by:
• Showing detrimental impacts
• Illustrating aspirational low emission pathways.
Environmental
NGOs and
governments
All users
User Questions answered
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16. Global
Calculator
But it will not be designed to answer more complex
price impact and burden sharing questions
17
It will not be designed to answer questions such as:
• Price impacts: what is the impact of a global carbon tax of $x/tCO2?
• Burden sharing: if the US did X and China did Y, how would other
countries respond and what would happen to global emissions and
climate impacts?
But it will be able to illustrate pathways from other models exploring
these questions.
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18. Global
CalculatorHigh level structure of the Transport modelling
Transport
(energy demand
and emissions)
Passenger
Urban
Non-Urban
Long range
international
Freight
Short to medium
range / domestic
Long range
international
(ship, air)
+
+
+
21
Automobile City
Transit City
Booming City
+
Developed
Developing
+
Developed
Developing
+
Developed
Developing
+
Developed
Developing
+
19. Global
Calculator
Urban
22
Automobile City
Transit City
Booming City
+
City types and levels are based on:
• City form and projected future growth
• Existing mode shares within each city type
• Trip distances within each city type
• Countries/population of each category
Close-up on urban passenger travel modelling
To capture change potential in a variety of cities throughout the world.
20. Global
Calculator
IMPROVE
IMPROVE
SHIFT
Demand ICEV road
transport
GHG emissions
(CO2e) CARS
Demand electric
road transport
Fuel demand
CARS
Elecricity demand -
CARS
Electricity
emissions factors
Fuel emissions
factor
Efficiency rate
Occupancy rate
Electric
penetration
Occupancy rate
x
+
Transport demand
CARS
ICEV
penetration
Transport demand
CARS
Modal share CARS
Urban passengers
transport demand
per year per
inhabitant in the city
Urban population
xx x
x
Efficiency rate
x x
Modal share CARS
Urban passengers
transport demand
per year per
inhabitant in the city
Urban population
x
GHG emissions –
CARS electricity
GHG emissions
– CARS fuel
TOTAL
FIGURES
APPROACH
SOURCE: Global Calculator team
AVOID
AVOID
SHIFT
x
x
TOTAL
FIGURES
APPROACH
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Structure of the URBAN Passengers transport modelling
21. Global
Calculator
Levels 1 to 4 represent the least/most abatement effort
that experts believe possible
The level 1-4 range is simply a synthesis of what a wide range of credible experts believe
could be possible by 2050.
Level 1:
Minimum
abatement
effort
Level 2:
ambitious but
achievable
Level 3: very
ambitious but
achievable
Level 4:
extraordinarily
ambitious and
extreme
Most experts will tend to congregate here Only a minority
of experts will
think this is
possible. An
extreme view.
More abatement effort
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22. Global
Calculator
Level 1 represents the minimum level of abatement
effort
Technology levers: minimum or no
technological roll out.
e.g. UK nuclear
Behavioural levers: minimal abatement
effort. Maximum demand that could
plausibly be envisaged. In level 1 there is
no decoupling of economic/population
growth and demand.
e.g. UK average home temperature
Level 1 should not be interpreted as BAU. It may actually be more pessimistic.
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23. Global
Calculator
Level 2 is described by most experts as ambitious but
achievable; and level 3 is described as very ambitious
but achievable
Technology levers: technological roll
out at ambitious / very ambitious
rates.
e.g. UK nuclear
Behavioural levers: ambitious / very
ambitious behaviour change and
abatement effort in this sector.
e.g. UK average home temperature
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24. Global
Calculator
Level 4 for technology levers reflects the maximum
theoretical potential of a technology
Technology levers: the maximum
technology roll out that is technically
possible by 2050, not constrained by
cost.
e.g. UK nuclear
Level 4 is:
• Extraordinarily ambitious and
extreme – an “Apollo” level of effort
• The maximum technology roll out as
suggested by the most ambitious
expert
• Only constrained by:
• Build/installation rate: e.g. roll
out of nuclear will be
constrained by the fastest it is
possible to build plants
(determined by a “top runner”
build rate)
• Natural resources: e.g. roll out
of wind and solar will be
constrained by the availability of
windy/sunny locations.
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25. Global
Calculator
How does the Calculator reflect current/planned
policy?
Current / planned policy is not reflected in the levels 1-4…
Level 1 is not the “business as usual” scenario because it
does not attempt to take account of existing/planned
policy. Level 1 is actually likely to be higher emissions than
business as usual.
… instead, it’s reflected in example pathways
e.g. The IEA 4DS is all current and planned policy.
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27. Global
Calculator
Demo of prototype Global Calculator tool
http://gcp.pik-potsdam.de/glob-calc-v10a.html Username: gcp
Password: ObErOn7! (please note the confidentiality agreement) 30
28. Benoit Lefevre, Ph.D.
Benoit Lefevre is the Director of the
Transport and Climate Program for
and EMBARQ/WRI. He is in charge
of developing a new initiative on
transport and climate change. Benoit
leads the Transport Working Group
of the Low Emissions Development
Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS-
GP).
About the Presenter