On Oct. 14-15, Haitao Zhang, Director of EMBARQ China presented at the 4th China Transit Metropolis Development Forum. This was an influential forum in transit field, organized by Ministry of Transport, Guangdong provincial and Shenzhen municipal transport authorities. His presentation focused on the transport development trends in China and other countries , and how EMBARQ China will follow these trends to make maximum external impact.
11. Driving is not as “cool” as it used to be
驾车出行不像以前一样“酷”了
U.S. and U.K.: Proportion of licensed drivers by age (1998-2008)
美国和英国:按年龄划分的持照驾驶员的比例(1998年、2008年)
Sivak and Schoettle, 2011(引用:Sivak 和Schoettle, 2011)
http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/handle/2027.42/86680/102764.pdf
12. U.S.: Young People are driving less
年轻人开车的越来越少
Social media
replaces the travel
needs. 社交媒体降
低开车需求。
Unemployment rate
is high. 就业局势不
明朗,收入不稳定。
Too busy to get a
driver’s license. 没
时间考驾照。
It’s a matter of
choice. 年轻人更愿
意选择公交、自行
车。
13. Passenger Car Travel (1990=100)
小汽车出行的趋势(1990年的值为100)
人
均
每
年
车
辆
行
驶
里
程
Source: International Transport Forum 2012
来源:2012国际交通论坛
14. Cycling on the Rise – USA
越来越多的人骑自行车出行——美国
美国平
均值
数据来源:http://www.bikeleague.org/content/acs-bike-
commuting-continues-rise
美国70个大
城市
19. World: Changes in Infrastructure expenditures 全球:基础设施支出的变化
USD 20 Trillion Savings 节约大约20万亿美元
Total infrastructure additions and cumulative capital, reconstruction and O&M expenditures
总基础设施增加和累积资本、重建和运维支出
(in real and undiscounted USD)
Source: IEA, 2013
来源:2013年国际能源署
- $15 Trillion
-20% BAU
-15万亿美元
- 20% BAU
+ $350 billion
+1000% BAU
+ 3500亿美元
+ 1000% BAU
+ $2.5 Trillion
+15% BAU
+ 2.5万亿美元
+ 15% BAU
Savings: $10 Tri
-35% BAU
节约:10万亿美元
- 35% BAU
from 1.6 tri/y in 2010 to 2 tril/y in 2050
从2010年的每年1.6万亿到2050年的每年2万亿
28. Vehicle quota system – on the rise in China
车辆限额制政策——中国的发展情况
Year
新加坡上海
贵阳
北京
广州天津
年份
Caps the number of new vehicle registrations 对新车登记数量设上限;新加坡每10年
车牌重新拍卖(一定程度上鼓励汽车销售)。
Formats 模式
Beijing, Guiyang – Lottery
北京、贵阳——摇号政策
Singapore, Shanghai – Auction
新加坡、上海——拍卖政策
Guangzhou and Tianjin – Auction and Lottery
广州和天津——拍卖和摇号政策
30. Low emission zones - tipping in European Union
低排放区——在欧盟中已经广泛采纳
城市数量
Received wide implementation due to EU’s health-based air
quality standard;在欧盟“健康空气质量标准”的要求下,低排放区政
策在欧盟得到了广泛实施;
Additional 100 EU cities will implement LEZs 未来还有100个欧盟
城市将实施低排放区政策
31. How do we accelerate the adoption?
如何加速可持续交通政策的采纳趋势?
37. 创造先发优势的先决条件
• Political Will – Community Support 政府的意愿+
公众的支持
• Technical Capacity to Plan, Implement, Improve
技术能力:规划、实施和改进
• Finance – Infrastructure and Operations
Capturing the Trends 投资、融资:充分的交通基础设
施和运营资金支持
The per capita carbon footprint of the Chinese cities is now higher than developed cities like Paris, NY, Tokyo and London.
However, regarding the composition, we found that the share of industry and power is much higher. This is probably because there are still lots of industrial plants in Beijing and Shanghai; for the power, the reason is that carbon-intense coal is the major power source.
International experiences show that with the increase of wealth, the carbon emissions from buildings, transport and waste will keep rising up. – So transport and building sectors will be the focus of this presentation.
Dec 2013, 189 cities,
Among the 15 metro system that were open after 2010, 8 are in China.
There are two more Chinese cities that open metro systems in 2013– Zhengzhou (25.4) and Harbin (17.5)
Shanghai runs the world’s longest metro 533km, followed by Beijing
纽约自行车道网络规划,将自行车道分成为三类,在城市中心布局。
London, NYC, Pairs, DC, Stockholm Bike share
特点:全球交通需求管理政策分布不一致。做的好的国家,例如欧洲城市和新加坡政策更多样。
eight more Chinese cities to adopt this policy in the future
(ChinaAssociation of Automobile Manufacture )
考验政府精细化管理的政策
Countries: Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, Austria and UK.