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Urban Transport and Climate Change - Dario Hidalgo - CODATU 2015
1. DARIO HIDALGO, DIRECTOR RESEARCH AND PRACTICE, EMBARQ, WORLD RESOURCES INSTITUTE
URBAN TRANSPORT AND
CLIMATE CHANGE
Not just that…
2. CONGESTION
ROAD SAFETY
CLIMATE CHANGE
PUBLIC HEALTH
2-5% cost of GDP through traffic
congestion
Transport accounts for one-quarter of
global CO2 emissions
Traffic fatalities lead to 1.2 million deaths
every year and many more injuries
Physical inactivity causes 1 in 10 deaths
worldwide, on par with smoking
3. CONGESTION
ROAD SAFETY
CLIMATE CHANGE
PUBLIC HEALTH
2-5% cost of GDP through traffic
congestion
Transport accounts for one-quarter of
global CO2 emissions
Traffic fatalities lead to 1.2 million deaths
every year and many more injuries
Physical inactivity causes 1 in 10 deaths
worldwide, on par with smoking
9. Improved Access, Specially for the Poor
Reduced Fatalities, Injuries, Illness
Achieving the CO2 reduction targets
Technology
Improvements
Public
Transport
Non-motorized
Transport
Urban
development
and transport
integration
AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE
THREE PRONGED APPROACH
12. We could even travel further (on average), but 20-30% less
than business as usual projection (consistent with ETP-IEA)
Industrialized countries need reductions in VKT
Emerging countries need to curb current VKT pathway
Some findings from http://globalcalculator.org/
13. Avoid, Shift, Improve combined measures
Cooper, Lefevre, Pestiaux, GHG Emissions from the Transport Sector Using
Multi-Sectoral Tool, TRB Annual Meeting, 2015
14. Myths busted:
Switching coal to gas does not work: we need to
decarbonise global electricity generation to near zero
gCO2e/kWh by 2050 – Electrify 10% Car fleet by 2050
We cannot rely on running out of fossil fuel. The world
has enough fossil fuel resources to put the world at risk
of a global mean temperature of over 6°C by 2100
We also cannot rely on futuristic technologies to suck
carbon out of the atmosphere. At best 10% savings
Curbing population to the UN’s lower projected estimate
(8 billion) would only save around 10%
Some findings from http://globalcalculator.org/
15. Myth Busted: Biofuels Are Not a Green Alternative
http://www.wri.org/publication/avoiding-bioenergy-competition-food-crops-and-land
22. Received wide implementation due to EU’s health-based air
quality standard;
Additional 100 EU cities will implement LEZs
Low emission zones - tipping in European Union
23. Caps the number of new vehicle registrations
Formats
Beijing, Guiyang – Lottery
Singapore, Shanghai – Auction
Guangzhou and Tianjin – Auction and Lottery
Vehicle quota system – on the rise in China
Year
26. Metro rail - tipping in China
London 1863;
189 cities - 10,500 kilometers - 112 million pax/day;
189 Cities
10,500 km
112 MM pax/day
181 Cities
4,500 km
31 MM pax/day
39. 3-Tiered Approach Towards Change
Scaling Strategy
Global
Agenda Sustainable Development
Goals & Climate Change
Agreement
National
Policy and Funding Programs for
Sustainable Mobility and Urban
Development
Local/National
Avoid, Shift, Improve
Unsustainable transport has major consequences around the world: congestion, climate change, road fatalities and injuries, and public health.
Large, global trends are driving and amplifying the consequences of unsustainable transport: urbanization coupled with increased car ownership leading to increasing energy consumption in the transport sector, more kilometers driven, continuing road-centric investment that is unsustainable for public health, safety, and the environment.
Unsustainable transport has major consequences around the world: congestion, climate change, road fatalities and injuries, and public health.
Large, global trends are driving and amplifying the consequences of unsustainable transport: urbanization coupled with increased car ownership leading to increasing energy consumption in the transport sector, more kilometers driven, continuing road-centric investment that is unsustainable for public health, safety, and the environment.
200+ cities have enacted Low Emission Zones since 2003, becoming part of the mainstream in Europe
188 cities with metro systems since the first in 1863 in London, Great Britain
1000+ cities with carsharing programs since the first in Lucerne & Zurich, Switzerland in 1987, have become mainstream in the EU and North America
Nearly 500 cities with bikesharing programs since the first in Rennes, France in 1998; beginning to mainstream in Europe
213 carfree zones in Europe since the first in Rotterdam, Netherlands in 1953
250+ cities with integrated fare systems since the first in Zurich, Switzerland in 1989
Countries: Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Sweden, Austria and UK.
eight more Chinese cities to adopt this policy in the future
(China Association of Automobile Manufacture )
Dec 2013, 189 cities,
Among the 15 metro system that were open after 2010, 8 are in China.
There are two more Chinese cities that open metro systems in 2013– Zhengzhou (25.4) and Harbin (17.5)
Shanghai runs the world’s longest metro 533km, followed by Beijing
Initial support from Shell Foundation created Embarq whithin WRI and Centro de Transporte Sustentable whithin CEIBA (a local NGO) in 2003. In 2006 CTS was created as a separate NGO, which has grown steadily and opened several areas of work. Success in the initial BRT engagement in Mexico City, which opened in 2005 created a momentum for expansion in the city and application in other cities (with national support).