A step-by-step guide to using data to more accurately and profitably forecast trends.

1. TREND
FORECASTING
MADE SMARTER
PART 1

2. AN INDUSTRY AT A
TURNING POINT
“What is not working
is the fact that there is
no relationship
between the creative
vision and the
commercial vision.”
The commercial
side has long
perceived the
value of analytics
but should they
matter to the
creative?
Demna Gvasalia, Vetements

3. THE ANSWER IS YES
Millions of dollars are lost every year in
markdowns and missed opportunities
because brands either invest into the wrong
trends at too great an extent, or macro- and
micro-product development opportunities
are acted upon...too late.

4. SO WHAT DOES SMARTER
TREND FORECASTING
LOOK LIKE?

5. WHERE DO
TRENDS
ORIGINATE?
IDENTIFY YOUR
DATA SOURCES

6. LET'S LOOK AT A
SPECIFIC EXAMPLE
THIS PAST SPRING/SUMMER SEASON GINGHAM
WAS EVERYWHERE...BUT WHEN DID IT REALLY
EMERGE AS A TREND?

7. START WITH THESE
DATA SOURCES
SOCIAL SEARCH E-COMMERCE

8. SOCIAL: WHAT SHAPE DOES
THIS TREND TAKE?
SOCIAL
INSIGHT:
USING IMAGE
RECOGNITION
TECHNOLOGY
EXTRACTING PRINT AND
GARMENT TYPE,
WE ARE ABLE TO
PINPOINT THAT THE
HIGHEST NUMBER OF
INSTAGRAM POSTS ARE
SHIRTS + DRESSES.

9. SOCIAL:
WHERE IS IT MOST POPULAR?
DO YOU KNOW WHERE KEY
INFLUENCERS ARE LOCATED?
(AND DO YOU KNOW THE KEY
INFLUENCERS AS THEY RELATE
TO YOUR TARGET
DEMOGRAPHIC?)
GEO-TAGGING THEIR ACTIVITY
TELLS YOU WHERE THE TREND
HAS LEGS AND HOW AND WHERE
YOU SHOULD FOCUS YOUR
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT AND
MARKETING EFFORTS.
INSIGHT:
GINGHAM
EMERGED ON
INSTAGRAM FIRST
IN MAJOR CITIES
LIKE NEW YORK,
LOS ANGELES,
LONDON, AND
SYDNEY, ON THE
HEELS OF ITS
EMERGENCE IN
2014-5 S/S
FASHION WEEKS.

10. SEARCH:
WHAT IS THIS THING CALLED?
WITH AN EMERGENCE ON SOCIAL MEDIA, THIS
THING IS OFFICIALLY A TREND, SO IS IT BEING
SEARCHED FOR?
GOOGLE HISTORIC SEARCH DATA:
KEYWORD GINGHAM
INSIGHT:
WHILE SEARCH INTEREST STARTED TO PICK UP AFTER ITS
APPEARANCE IN RUNWAY SHOWS (IN BOTH 2014-2015),
THE TREND DIDN'T REALLY EMERGE IN SEARCH DATA UNTIL MUCH
LATER (SPRING 2017).
WHY? BECAUSE SEARCH INTEREST OFTENTIMES WELL PRECEDES
ACTUAL PURCHASE INTENT FOR MAINSTREAM AUDIENCES .

11. INSIGHT:
UNDERSTANDING WHERE SEARCH IS CLUSTERING TELLS YOU WHERE
YOUR EARLY ADOPTERS AND RESULTING TARGET MARKETS ARE FOR
INITIAL LAUNCH, IN THIS CASE MAJOR UK, US, AND AUSTRALIAN
CITIES.
SEARCH:
WHERE IS INTEREST EMERGING?

12. ARMED WITH INSIGHTS ON WHO IS WEARING A
TREND, EXACTLY WHAT PROFILES IT'S TAKING,
AND WHERE ITEMS ARE EMERGING, YOU KNOW
HOW TO FOCUS YOUR LAUNCH EFFORTS.
IN OUR NEXT INSTALLMENT, SEE HOW THE TREND
EMERGES AT THE POINT-OF-SALE AND THE KEY
METRICS THAT SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO MEASURE
ITS SUCCESS.
PUTTING TWO PIECES OF THE
PUZZLE TOGETHER

13. WANT TO KNOW MORE
www.stylesage.co
ABOUT SMARTER TREND FORECASTING?