Launching a Free-to-Play Game: Strategies, Risks, and Pitfalls

1. Launching a Free-to-
Play Game:
Strategies, Risks,
and Pitfalls
Eric Benjamin Seufert
VP of User Acquisition, Rovio
Owner, Mobile Dev Memo

2. Who am I?

3. Who am I?

4. Who am I?

5. Who am I?

6. Presentation Structure

7. Presentation Structure
I. State of the Market / Current Challenges

8. Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges

9. Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.

10. Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.

11. Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.

12. Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-
Play game in 2015?

13. Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-
Play game in 2015?
● Advertising costs are high

14. Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-
Play game in 2015?
● Advertising costs are high

15. Why is it difficult to launch a Free-to-
Play game in 2015?
● Succeeding on the App Store is difficult by design.

16. App Store Discovery is Not Broken
January 2015
1.43MM
apps
1.21MM
apps

17. App Store Discovery is Not Broken

18. App Store Discovery is Not Broken

19. Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
June 1, 2015
(6
)
(2
)
(2
)

20. Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
June 1, 2015
*
*
*
*
*
*
X
X
*
X
Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary
of the “Great Unbundling”
Temporary viral / paid blip
Truly Viral phenomenon
(6
)
(2
)
(2
)

21. Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
July 29, 2015
(6
)
(2
)
(2
)

22. Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
July 29, 2015
*
*
b
*
*
X
*
X
Existing, pre-mobile network; beneficiary
of the “Great Unbundling”
Temporary viral / paid blip
Truly Viral phenomenon
(6
)
(2
)
(2
)
*
b Brand integration
X

23. Existing Networks 6 5
Facebook 2 4
Google 2 1
Other 2 1
Viral Phenomena 2 2
Temporary Blips 2 2
Top Downloaded, iPhone / US
July 29, 2015June 1, 2015

24. Advertising vs. Existing Networks
● Advertising costs are going up…

25. Advertising vs. Existing Networks

26. Advertising vs. Existing Networks
● Advertising costs are going up…
…because the largest developers are monetizing their
networks…

27. Advertising vs. Networks

28. Advertising vs. Existing Networks
● Advertising costs are going up…
…because the largest developers are monetizing their
networks…
…and retaining them within their portfolio via cross-
promotion…

29. Advertising vs. Networks

30. Advertising vs. Networks

31. Advertising vs. Networks
● Advertising costs are going up…
…because the largest developers are monetizing their
networks…
…and retaining them within their portfolio via cross-
promotion…
● With a single title, you’re not competing with large
developers on the basis of LTV > CPI (game quality), you’re
competing on the basis of network size.

32. Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.

33. Positioning vs. Marketing

34. Positioning vs. Marketing
• Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms
of money;

35. Positioning vs. Marketing
• Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms
of money;
• F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on
marketing tactics;

36. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement
1
2 3
4

37. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement
?

38. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement

39. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement
“Gimmick”
Games
Fast-follow
Clones
Lightweight
graphics-driven
experiments

40. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement
“Gimmick”
Games
Fast-follow
Clones
Second-
screen
Extension
Lightweight
graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands

41. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement
“Gimmick”
Games
Fast-follow
Clones
Second-
screen
Extension
Full F2P
Economy
Games
Lightweight
graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands

42. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement
“Gimmick”
Games
Fast-follow
Clones
Second-
screen
Extension
Full F2P
Economy
Games
Lightweight
graphics-driven
experiments
IP Co-brands
?

43. Positioning vs. Marketing
• Irrelevant to consider competition with networks in terms
of money;
• F2P market stratified into a multi-segment model based on
marketing tactics;
• Traction without billions on the balance sheet has to come
from product positioning.

44. Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:

45. Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”

46. Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”
● “Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”

47. Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”
● “Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”
● “Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”

48. Product Positioning
Greenlight Questions for Quadrants 1 –
3:
● “Does this game have a large potential Total Addressable
Market?”
● “Can I partner with someone to reach that market? Who?”
● “Is this game unique enough to produce viral growth?”
● “Can the essence of the game be communicated quickly
and clearly?”

49. Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.

50. Assumption Challenge
(Strawman)

51. Assumption Challenge
(Strawman)
A successful game launch will look like this on the Top
Downloaded chart:

53. Unpaid Growth Paid Growth
NoBalance
Sheet
Requirement
Balance
Sheet
Requirement

54. Crossy Road

55. Developer Hipster Whale (AUS)
Hipster Whale (AUS) / Yodo1
(CHI)
Release Date: November 19, 2014 January 10, 2015
Top Downloaded Rank
Reached (US):
4 2
Days from Release to
Top Downloaded Rank:
4 8
Crossy Road

56. Top Downloaded, iOS (US)

57. Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#225

58. Top Downloaded, iOS (US)

59. Quadrant 1

60. Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-
friction monetization, novel gameplay.

61. Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-
friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay
depth to introduce true game economy. Once
novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad
monetization experiences rapid decay.

62. Quadrant 1
Strategy: Virality. Highly differentiated graphics, low-
friction monetization, novel gameplay.
Risks: Inability to monetize. Not enough gameplay
depth to introduce true game economy. Once
novelty (virality) wears off, growth will stop. Ad
monetization experiences rapid decay.
Pitfalls: Viral misfire. Game doesn’t take off due to lack
of resonance and / or untenable depth.

63. Marvel: Contest of Champions

64. Marvel: Contest of Champions
Developer Kabam Kabam
Release Date: December 10, 2014 December 10, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank
Reached (US):
3 11
Days from Release to
Top Downloaded Rank:
2 7

65. Top Downloaded, iOS (US)

66. Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#10

67. Top Downloaded, iOS (US)

68. Quadrant 2

69. Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand
recognition.

70. Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand
recognition.
Risks: Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with
fans of the game type (match 3 / build and
battle / etc.).

71. Quadrant 2
Strategy: Subsidized marketing costs through brand
recognition.
Risks:
Pitfalls:
Brand mismatch. Brand doesn’t resonate with
fans of the game type (match 3 / build and
battle / etc.).
Onerous IP licensing terms prevent profitability
of marketing. Social media reach of IP owner is
overestimated.

72. Cookie Jam

73. Cookie Jam
Developer SGN (USA) / NetEase (CHI) SGN (USA)
Release Date: February 27, 2014 March 29, 2014
Top Downloaded Rank
Reached (US):
15 17
Days from Release to
Top Downloaded Rank:
36 141

74. Top Downloaded, iOS (US)

75. Top Grossing, iOS (US)
#26

76. Top Downloaded, iOS (US)

77. Quadrant 3

78. Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable
unit economics.

79. Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable
unit economics.
Risks: Inability to scale unit economics beyond a
minimal threshold.

80. Quadrant 3
Strategy: Sustainable growth driven through profitable
unit economics.
Risks:
Pitfalls:
Inability to scale unit economics beyond a
minimal threshold.
Lack of organizational commitment to reach
consumer “break through” on IP. Lack of
analytical sophistication.

81. Presentation Structure
I.
Product Positioning StrategyII.
State of the Market / Current Challenges
Three case studiesIII.
ConclusionIV.

82. Take-aways

83. Take-aways
• Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy
accordingly, pre-product;

84. Take-aways
• Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy
accordingly, pre-product;
• Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent
goal unto itself;

85. Take-aways
• Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy
accordingly, pre-product;
• Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent
goal unto itself;
• Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale
than LTV / CPI;

86. Take-aways
• Consider your quadrant and build marketing strategy
accordingly, pre-product;
• Initial download velocity / chart position is not a prudent
goal unto itself;
• Product / Market fit is a better way to think about scale
than LTV / CPI;
• Don’t try to emulate a competitor’s title unless you know
their financials.

87. Thank you, Priori Data!
• Provided the data used in this presentation
• Berlin-based app store analytics start-up
• http://prioridata.com

88. Thanks!
eric@mobiledevmemo.com
@eric_seufert