Outlook for Fish Trade 2030, 10th North Atlantic Seafood Conference, Bergen, 4-5 March 2015
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http://www.fao.org/fishery/en Outlook for Fish Trade 2030, 10th North Atlantic Seafood Conference, Bergen, 4-5 March 2015 ©FAO
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Outlook for Fish Trade 2030, 10th North Atlantic Seafood Conference, Bergen, 4-5 March 2015
- 1. Presentation by Árni M. Mathiesen Assistant Director-General Fisheries and Aquaculture Department Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
- 10. OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections (2022) Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2013-2022 (Table A.26.2). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2010-12 average. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red.
- 11. WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 Projections Source: World Bank Report on Fish to 2030 (Table 3.7). Countries/regions ranked by per capita fish consumption in 2006. Countries/regions with declined per capita fish consumption highlighted in red
- 12. Country/region Fish Demand (2030) Total fish prod. (2012, mil. tonne) S-D gap 2030 (col. 4 minus col. 3) kg/cap. Total (mil. tonne) WORLD 29.1 261.2 156.5 -104.7 S.S. Africa 10.8 15.1 6.9 -8.2 L.A. & C. 12.2 18.3 14.8 -3.4 N. Africa 12.9 3.7 2.8 -0.8 Europe 27.3 23.4 16.0 -7.4 N. America 29.8 12.9 6.7 -6.1 Oceania 31.9 1.8 1.4 -0.3 Asia 37.0 186.3 107.8 -78.5 FAO/FI Fish Supply-Demand Gap Projections Source: Estimation of FI/FAO (preliminary results) Main assumptions: 1) Per capita fish demand affected by income growth. 2) Fish price unchanged. 3) Preference over fish unchanged
- 14. 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2012 Aquaculture for human consumption Capture for human consumption Non-food uses Per capita food fish supply Production (million tonnes live weight) Per capita yearly supply (kg)
- 15. State of World Marine Fish Stocks
- 16. Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9% [Million Tonnes] 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 China 61% Asia 91% Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production
- 19. Fish and healthy human diets Vitamin A Protein DHA EPA Vitamin D Vitamin B12 Zinc Iron Calcium Selenium Iodine Fish, a source of nutrients Daily need (RDI) for children: DHA+EPA (Ω-3); seafood main source 150 (250) µg Vitamin A; 250 million preschool children deficient 150 (250) mg Iron; 1.6 billion people deficient 8.9 mg (at 10% bioavailability) Iodine; seafood natural source, 2 billion people deficient 120 µg Zinc; 800 000 child deaths per year 5.6 mg (at moderate bioavailability)
- 20. • Capture Fisheries 10-20 mil. tonnes • Aquaculture 50-100 mil. tonnes • More for human consumption 10 mil. tonnes • Less waste 15 mil. tonnes Four Pathways:
- 21. Possible? Plausible? What is possible is plausible What has happened before can happen again Optimistic Realistic Skeptical
- 22. • Economic growth and open markets. • Benign climate change and environmental impact. • More effective public and private governance. • High productivity and output in aquaculture. Possible, plausible and realistic
Editor's Notes
- One of the main driving elements behind the BGI is the future predicted scenarios we see in the modeling work we have done in the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of FAO on our own or with others. The OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections to 2022, shown top left on the slide, predicts increasing consumption in most regions of the world up to an average level of almost 21 kg per capita per annum compared to the widely recommended level of around 15 kg per capita per annum. The worrying exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows a drop from the already low level of below 10 kg per capita per annum to below 8 kg in the period. Red figures represent a drop from earlier values, black figures represent an increase. The results from the WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 projections show world consumptions at almost 19 kg per capita per annum. However, there are very varied changes in consumption between the regions. Most of them are positive or do not cause concern but the drop in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa down to below 6 kg, which is consistent with the OECD-FAO predictions, is very worrying as well as the drop in the already low levels in Latin America and the Caribbean region and in the North-Africa and Middle-East region to below 8 and 10 kg respectively. Here we should remember, as I mentioned earlier that the recommended levels are around 15 kg per capita per annum. It is surely obvious to all that were this to be the reality by 2030, it would be totally unacceptable to all of us. The present level of world fisheries and aquaculture consumption is 160 million tons a year. The predictions from the various scenarios in the Fish to 2030 report are all around 200 million tons per year. This is roughly consistent with the OECD-FAO outlook trend. In a simplified demand model done by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department using as drivers population growth and GDP growth based on the link between GDP and fish consumption, and essentially removing all production restrictions, the results are that the world would want to consume 260 million tons of fish by 2030 if supply was available. Under this scenario the world would consume on the average just shy of 30 kg per capita per annum and Sub-Saharan Africa, North-Africa and the Middle-East region and Latin America and the Caribbean region would all consume 3-5 kg more fish per capita per annum or 11-13 kg per capita per annum. This would be a result by 2030 that we could all live with but to get that result we need to produce more fish by 2030, to the tune of 100 million tons a year more than we produce today.
- One of the main driving elements behind the BGI is the future predicted scenarios we see in the modeling work we have done in the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of FAO on our own or with others. The OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections to 2022, shown top left on the slide, predicts increasing consumption in most regions of the world up to an average level of almost 21 kg per capita per annum compared to the widely recommended level of around 15 kg per capita per annum. The worrying exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows a drop from the already low level of below 10 kg per capita per annum to below 8 kg in the period. Red figures represent a drop from earlier values, black figures represent an increase. The results from the WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 projections show world consumptions at almost 19 kg per capita per annum. However, there are very varied changes in consumption between the regions. Most of them are positive or do not cause concern but the drop in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa down to below 6 kg, which is consistent with the OECD-FAO predictions, is very worrying as well as the drop in the already low levels in Latin America and the Caribbean region and in the North-Africa and Middle-East region to below 8 and 10 kg respectively. Here we should remember, as I mentioned earlier that the recommended levels are around 15 kg per capita per annum. It is surely obvious to all that were this to be the reality by 2030, it would be totally unacceptable to all of us. The present level of world fisheries and aquaculture consumption is 160 million tons a year. The predictions from the various scenarios in the Fish to 2030 report are all around 200 million tons per year. This is roughly consistent with the OECD-FAO outlook trend. In a simplified demand model done by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department using as drivers population growth and GDP growth based on the link between GDP and fish consumption, and essentially removing all production restrictions, the results are that the world would want to consume 260 million tons of fish by 2030 if supply was available. Under this scenario the world would consume on the average just shy of 30 kg per capita per annum and Sub-Saharan Africa, North-Africa and the Middle-East region and Latin America and the Caribbean region would all consume 3-5 kg more fish per capita per annum or 11-13 kg per capita per annum. This would be a result by 2030 that we could all live with but to get that result we need to produce more fish by 2030, to the tune of 100 million tons a year more than we produce today.
- One of the main driving elements behind the BGI is the future predicted scenarios we see in the modeling work we have done in the Fisheries and Aquaculture Department of FAO on our own or with others. The OECD-FAO Fish Model Projections to 2022, shown top left on the slide, predicts increasing consumption in most regions of the world up to an average level of almost 21 kg per capita per annum compared to the widely recommended level of around 15 kg per capita per annum. The worrying exception is Sub-Saharan Africa, which shows a drop from the already low level of below 10 kg per capita per annum to below 8 kg in the period. Red figures represent a drop from earlier values, black figures represent an increase. The results from the WB-FAO-IFPRI Fish to 2030 projections show world consumptions at almost 19 kg per capita per annum. However, there are very varied changes in consumption between the regions. Most of them are positive or do not cause concern but the drop in consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa down to below 6 kg, which is consistent with the OECD-FAO predictions, is very worrying as well as the drop in the already low levels in Latin America and the Caribbean region and in the North-Africa and Middle-East region to below 8 and 10 kg respectively. Here we should remember, as I mentioned earlier that the recommended levels are around 15 kg per capita per annum. It is surely obvious to all that were this to be the reality by 2030, it would be totally unacceptable to all of us. The present level of world fisheries and aquaculture consumption is 160 million tons a year. The predictions from the various scenarios in the Fish to 2030 report are all around 200 million tons per year. This is roughly consistent with the OECD-FAO outlook trend. In a simplified demand model done by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department using as drivers population growth and GDP growth based on the link between GDP and fish consumption, and essentially removing all production restrictions, the results are that the world would want to consume 260 million tons of fish by 2030 if supply was available. Under this scenario the world would consume on the average just shy of 30 kg per capita per annum and Sub-Saharan Africa, North-Africa and the Middle-East region and Latin America and the Caribbean region would all consume 3-5 kg more fish per capita per annum or 11-13 kg per capita per annum. This would be a result by 2030 that we could all live with but to get that result we need to produce more fish by 2030, to the tune of 100 million tons a year more than we produce today.
- This graph shows the state of world fisheries production. It is obvious to all and we all know, that under present conditions, capture fisheries are leveling off at the same time as consumption per capita per year increases. This is made possible by the growth in aquaculture, the fastest growing food sector, which is now almost equal to capture fisheries for human consumption but we still have a sizeable portion going for non-human food consumption, mostly animal feed.
- However, as mentioned earlier, aquaculture production has expanded greatly. This growth has been disproportionate around the world, which gives us reason to believe that there is still great scope for expansion for years to come. Asia, and particularly China, lead both in production of aquaculture products as well as in consumption of fish in general.
- The situation of wild stocks is unacceptable, too many stocks, or around 30% of stocks, are overfished. Even though the last two SOFIA reports have not reported an increase in this section the statistical trend has not changed. We both have to and can change this. The dark blue area in the graph shows the stocks which are harvested within biologically sustainable levels and the light blue shows the stocks that are fished unsustainably.
- Climate change will impact capture fisheries in many ways, like fish migration, breeding, spawning and feeding patterns. Fish populations will likely shift, are even already shifting away from tropical latitudes to higher latitudes, more to the north than to the south. There could also be high local extinction rates in the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Fish seize might change: large fish will have a smaller maximum body size due to reduced oxygen capacity of seawater. But new fishing areas will become available from decreases in ice cover. The climate changes can lead to economic and governance issues for fisheries. Shifting fish stocks in international waters may present issues for governments attempting to reach fishing agreements. On the whole global fisheries’ losses are estimated at 17-41 billion USD by 2050? Fish yield is projected to be increased by 30-70% in high latitudes but to fall by 40-60% in the tropics and Antarctica. Potential negative implications for aquaculture are: Inability to catch sufficient feed-fish due to ower catches impacting fishmeal and fish oil production Acidic water affecting shellfish growth Increasing flood risks to fish and shrimp ponds Coastal species at increased risk of extinction Algal blooms causing possible mass die-offs in farmed fish But positive impacts could be: Faster growth rates; Better food conversion efficiency; Longer growing seasons; Range expansion for suitable growing areas; To put things realistically, many potential changes but I believe that potentially we can handle them, if we work together.
- The fact is that from the point of view of an ecological footprint, as can be seen from this slide, aquaculture does very well compared to terrestrial animal protein food systems and some of them, like mollusks, supply additional ecosystem services beyond their food production. In general, then the run-of-the-mill aquaculture species does about as well, if not better, than the best of the terrestrial species are doing in this respect. I am not saying “stop producing meat” in terrestrial livestock food systems. Being an old terrestrial animal veterinarian I wouldn’t dream of doing that, but don’t tell me there are more environmental constraints to producing fish than other animal proteins, when the facts show the exact opposite.
- Let us now return to fish. As you can see from the bottom left-hand corner, fish is full of essential micronutrients, high quality proteins and fats which supply both energy and essential omega 3 fatty acids. The table on the bottom right shows how relatively little is needed on a daily basis to fulfill these requirements. One little fish like the one on the right can supply all of these needs if ingested whole. Protein is however considered conventionally as the most important nutritional element supplied by fish. In the graph in the top left-hand corner you can see that fish supplies almost 17 percent of the world’s animal protein, variable between regions and lowest in fact in Latin America and the Caribbean region. It is relatively more important in Low Income Food Deficit Countries. In the graph in the top right corner you can see that the lower the total animal protein intake is, the higher the level of fish protein is. The blue and red dots of the African and Asian countries all cluster towards the y-axis or the left in the graph. The size of the bubbles, especially in the case of the Asia, represented by red bubbles, indicates the size of the populations behind the country statistics. The story to take home from this graph is that LIFDCs are especially sensitive to any reduction in the supply of fish protein which would reflect very negatively in their total animal protein intake. The role of the omega 3 fatty acids is an especially important one and the medical doctor Professor Michael Crawford of Imperial Collage London maintains that Homo Sapiens, that is our own species, didn’t start to think rationally until we moved to the coast or to the rivers and started fishing and eating fish. He further says that the future of mankind therefore relies on fish and the oceans. A sobering thought.
- So what can we do? The Blue Growth has four paths to respond to this and obviously also to a number of very closely linked challenges and these pathways are itemized in in this slide: Capture fisheries. Aquaculture. Non-traditional ecosystem services. And the trade, post-harvest and social support path.