Exploring the snake evolution (wild's gravity).pdf
9 jti rpaper_carvalho_francisco
1. 1
WASTE MANAGEMENT INDICATORS
Carvalho Jr., F.H., Civil Enginnering Ph. D. – Brazil - frabeto@gmail.com
Rocha, G.N., Environment Enginnering.- Brazil - nobregleyciane@gmail.com
Aquino. M.D., Fishing Enginnering Ph. D – Brazil - marisete@ufc.br
Juca. J.F.T., Civil Enginnering Ph. D- Brazil- jucah@ufpe.br
ABSTRACT
The rate of generation of municipal solid waste (MSW) has increased much more than the urban population, even in
regions where the birth rate is high. The reasons for this growth can be various, yet the cultural and economic factors
are the most relevant. The environmental impacts of this growth can be noticed especially in large cities such as
Fortaleza, CE, with characteristics of commercial and tourist city. This research sought to examine the reasons for the
growth of the urban waste, particularly in Brazil and in the city of Fortaleza. It was sought as the main hypothesis the
correlation of MSW generation and the economic growth, caused by consumerism. We studied the influential
sustainability indicators for the growth of waste generation. Through the SPSS statistical tool, we selected the related
indicators, and then we applied a multiple regression to find the response equation that quantifies the total of waste to
Fortaleza, in the period between 2001 and 2011. The results obtained represent the indicators well because the
reliability was 80.9% of the predicted value. The remaining 19.1% is explained by other indicators that are not in the
model. Sustainability indicators chosen were: INPC, IPCA, GINI Indicator, power consumption, GDP, consumption of
treated water, time, HDI and the urban population. Among all the indicators analyzed, those ones that showed the
highest correlation to the response equation were, in order, the electricity consumption, GDP, consumption of treated
water, time, HDI and the urban population. According to the equation-response, validated for the city of Fortaleza,
allowed to conclude on the need to involve the model of production and consumption with the modern generation of
municipal solid waste. As the results of this study, we conclude that the environmental sustainability indicators that
influence the generation of municipal solid waste for the city of Fortaleza, hierarchically are: electricity consumption,
GDP at current prices, consumption of treated water, time , HDI and the urban population.
Keywords: Waste generation. Sustainability indicators. Consumerism. Municipal Solid Waste. Correlation.
Environmental Impacts.
INTRODUCTION
The growth and longevity of the population, coupled with the intense urbanization and expansion of the use of new
technologies, lead to the production of large quantities of waste.
About 1.3 billion tons of municipal solid waste (MSW) is generated on Earth each year. This amount could double
in 2025, if not reduce consumerism, most responsible for this exponential growth, especially in developing countries.
This is a great challenge to managers, concerned about the consequences to public and environmental health in cities
(Gardner, 2012).
In Brazil, the need linked to a neo-liberal policy encouraged capitalist economy, the past decades, the unbridled
consumerism. What lasted became disposable, one of the serious environmental challenges faced by large urban
centers, which are increasingly composing the large volumes of waste generated by the population. The option to
accelerate consumerism, towards economic development, society does not take into account the fact that nature has its
time a biogeochemical time is much slower than the need of the consumerist and capitalist society. The total generation
of municipal waste in Brazil, according to research by the Brazilian Association of Public Cleaning and Special Waste
(ABRELPE), registered a growth of 23.58% between 2001 and 2011, higher than the rate of urban population growth
2. 2
rate country, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), was 13.21% in the same period
(ABRELPE, 2010, 2011, IBGE, 2012e, 2012h).
The per capita MSW generation was also subject to an increase in all regions of Brazil, and the Northeast Region in
2011, overcame all, coming to 1.30 kg / inhab.day. Already in Fortaleza, the per capita generation increased 57.94%,
from 1.32 kg / inhab.day in 2001 2.09 kg / inhab.day in 2011. These changes occurred after the economic growth in
recent years (ABRELPE , 2011; ACFOR 2012).
One sign of change is the gravimetric composition MSW. The percentage of organic fraction in Fortaleza fell from
45.49% in 2005 to 43% in 2012 (FIRM, 2005; ACFOR 2012). As the Local Authority for the Settlement, Surveillance
and Control of Public Sanitation Services (ACFOR), this happened due to the higher consumption and increased
disposal, mainly packaging (ACFOR 2012).
The situation in Brazil is even more precarious when about 4,000 landfills are in operation, and contributing to the
contamination of the environment and affect the quality of life (Jucá, 2011). The situation is aggravated by the presence
of scavengers and families surviving in the dumps.
The generation of municipal waste depends on several factors, among them the average income of the population.
The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is linked to higher consumption and greater purchasing power. Thus, the largest
waste generation grows according to the purchasing power and not only by population growth.
The expansion of the economy led most popular consumer goods. Indeed, the intensification of trade on a global
scale brings a plethora of goods at low cost and that when obsolete, discarded. One example is the amount of electronic
waste in Brazil, discarded by successive models (Barros, 2012).
The MSW is an indicator of environmental sustainability, as manifest the direction of the economy and social
conditions of a society. It is a kind of record of situations as an economic crisis or an improvement in median household
income. In our daily waste the synthesis of our actions and human actions that identify us is found, and the daily amount
of waste collected in a city is the mean of the way we live and how we feed, clothe, fun, work and what consume.
The aim of this paper was to determine which sustainability indicators that influence the generation of MSW by
developing a specific model for the City of Fortaleza.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
For the study, we selected a set of social, economic and environmental indicators that could influence the generation
of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) for the city of Fortaleza. The data surveyed included a timeframe for the years 2001-
2011. Primary data were collected from several government agencies such as the Local Authority for the Settlement,
Surveillance and Control of Public Sanitation Services (ACFOR), Energy Company of Ceará (COELCE) , Water and
Sewage Company of Ceará (CAGECE) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Were also
supplemented with secondary data found in publications in scientific journals, theses and dissertations.
Applied a statistical treatment of the data by means of SPSS statistical tool for choosing the related indicators that
defined the equation in order to measure the generation of MSW to Fortaleza. Finally, it was found, through the
multiple correlation, the formulation of the equation for calculating the amount of MSW.
Initially, we examined, by means of line graphs, data MSW generation in Brazil, along with indicators of urban
population and GDP in the period 2001-2011 in order to ascertain whether the growth curve of national data externava a
similar behavior with the same data for the city of Fortaleza. This was the element that stimulated and challenged this
search for said County.
After a comparative analysis, other words, a general analysis of the data, we studied in more detail the data the
Municipality of Fortaleza in the same period (2001-2011). We incorporate new sustainability indicators and applied a
statistical analysis to generate a specific model for the City of Fortaleza. We also formulate some questions such as:
what are the social, economic and environmental indicators that influence the generation of MSW? What are the most
influential indicators selected according to a hierarchical order? What is the equation for the generation of MSW, using
sustainability indicators selected?
To answer the questions raised, we made a literature review on the subject. This review aimed to understand what is
going on with the generation of MSW in several Brazilian cities like Fortaleza, Sao Paulo, Porto Alegre, Curitiba and
João Pessoa, and also in some EU countries, USA and LAC. We analyze economic growth, social and environmental
aspects and influence in relation to the generation of MSW and consumerism.
3. 3
For the study, we selected a set of social, economic and environmental indicators that could influence the generation
of MSW for the city of Fortaleza. The data surveyed included a timeframe for the years 2001-2011. Primary data were
collected from several government agencies, such as ACFOR, COELCE, CAGECE and IBGE. Were also supplemented
with secondary data found in publications in scientific journals, theses, dissertations and websites.
Social indicators chosen were the Human Development Index - HDI, the Gini Index and the urban population of
Fortaleza. Economic indicators were total GDP, GDP per capita, the National Consumer Price Index - IPCA and the
National Consumer Price Index - INPC. Environmental indicators suggested for this research were treated water
consumption, energy consumption, generation of MSW and its per capita. All indicators chosen have influence on
consumerism and hence the generation of MSW.
Indeed, the selection of indicators was based on identification of key aspects of the theme, in this case, consumerism
and the generation of MSW. Statistical tool that permitted the constitution of a system, which would be from those who
have greater correlation to those who have them, ie we try to verify that the most appropriate and available to perform
this measurement indicators were was used.
After application of statistical analysis to the data, was made choice of indicators that defined the equation in order
to measure the generation of MSW to Fortaleza. A ranking of the most influential indicators was to answer one of the
questions posed in the beginning of the research.
Finally, we found through multiple regression, the formulation of the equation for calculating the amount of MSW.
Was therefore applied this equation to validate the model. To which the answer would be leading indicators, according
to a hierarchical order, the growth curve of MSW generation, we decided to do research on an analysis of the set of all
aggregate indicators.
The other point to be raised concerns the interpenetration of the dimensions of sustainability, which makes it
sometimes difficult to define what would be the most suitable for the insertion of a particular subject area indicator.
Thus, when necessary, we use a set of indicators in more than one dimension, as in the case of the indicator energy
consumption, which could be inserted both in the environmental area as the economic.
The selected indicators have not worked with assigning weights, as this would be arbitrary, which would escape the
scope of work.
Some limitations occurred. The first was the search for reliable data. Often, discloses a given, but then there is a fix.
This situation was resolved, we check always looking for sources and work with the most updated rates possible during
the preparation of the article. The choice of the period between 2001 to 2011 occurred by the data obtained with greater
reliability. Social, economic and environmental - in all, nine indicators were surveyed.The second limitation relates to
the difficulty of aggregating multiple indicators without distorting the result of the amount of MSW. Maybe it was one
of the causes when, in the beginning, use a tool for multicriteria choice of indicators. The third limitation was applied to
the data are found in their ranges. This decision arose from the need to do a model for the city of Fortaleza, in a
practical manner using the proposed equation.
In summary, the methodology of the study was to select a set of environmental sustainability indicators that could
draw a socioeconomic and environmental context of the city of Fortaleza in relation to the generation of MSW. Thus, it
was possible to build future scenarios for the generation of MSW from Fortaleza, in using the selected indicators and
applying equation.
The application of the new equation aims to find the amount of MSW to Fortaleza, providing less error sizing the
public waste collection services, treatments and equipment, especially when approaching the projection of the amount
of MSW. Will also serve to monitor the per capita production of MSW and its correlations with indicators of
sustainability.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The rate of generation of MSW has grown much more than the urban population. The reasons for this growth can be
various, yet the cultural and economic factors are the most relevant. The environmental impacts of this growth can be
noticed, especially in large cities, like the City of Fortaleza, with characteristics of commercial and tourist city.
The total generation of MSW in Brazil, according to research by the Brazilian Association of Public Cleaning and
Special Waste (ABRELPE), registered a growth of 1.8% between 2010 and 2011, higher than the rate of urban
population growth rate of the country that, according to the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), was
4. 4
Generation
of MSW
Economic Indicators:
PIB - INPC - IPCA
Social Indicators:
HDI - GINI Index - Urban
Population
Environmental indicators: Water
Consumpt/Eletric Power
Consumpt
0.9% in the same period. Already a per capita generation of MSW in Brazil grew 6.18% between the years 2000-2011,
being 359.40 kg / hab.ano to 381.60 kg / hab.ano respectively (ABRELPE, 2010, 2011, IBGE , 2012).
The per capita MSW generation was also subject to an increase in all regions of Brazil, and the Northeast Region in
2011, overcame all, coming to 1.30 kg / inhab.day. Already in Fortaleza, the per capita generation increased 57.94%,
from 1.32 kg / inhab.day in 2001 2.09 kg / inhab.day in 2011. These changes occurred after the economic growth in
recent years (ABRELPE , 2011; ACFOR 2012).
The expansion of the economy led most popular consumer goods. Indeed, the intensification of trade on a global
scale brings a plethora of goods at low cost and that when obsolete, discarded. One example is the amount of electronic
waste in Brazil, discarded by successive models (Barros, 2012).
The MSW is an indicator of environmental sustainability, as manifest the direction of the economy and social
conditions of a society. It is a kind of record of situations as an economic crisis or an improvement in median household
income. In our daily waste the synthesis of our actions and human actions that identify us is found, and the daily amount
of waste collected in a city is the mean of the way we live and how we feed, clothe, fun, work and what consume.
Sustainability Indicators Studied
The sustainability indicators chosen for analysis were divided into environmental and health indicators, social
indicators and economic indicators. Figure 1 shows the independent variables on the basis of the dependent variable
(generation of MSW).
Figure 1 - Variables studied.
Source: Carvalho Jr., 2015.
Statistical analysis began by descriptive statistics, then there was the statistical inference, which craved infer
characteristics of a population mainstay in the observed data. To analyze the normality of the data, we applied the
Shapiro-Wilk. After, was realized multivariate analysis and correlation. Was achieved with the correlation of the data,
and then using the method of multiple regression, we found the desired prediction equation. After choosing the method
of Pearson correlation was obtained, in Table 1, the degree of relationship between variables.
Table 1 - Degree of relationship between the variables selected to Fortaleza - 2001-2011.
Year
R$ Million
GDP at
current
prices(x1000)
HDI
Urban
Population
INPC IPCA Gini
Energy
Accumulated
(kWh / year)
Water
Consumption
(m³ / year)
MSW
generation
(t / year)
Year 100,0%
R$ Million
GDP at current
prices (x 1000)
99,1% 100,0%
HDI 67,1% 73,5% 100,0%
Urban
Population
93,0% 87,9% 46,4% 100,0%
5. 5
000
200.000
400.000
600.000
800.000
1.000.000
1.200.000
1.400.000
1.600.000
1.800.000
2.000.000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
RSU-ton/ano
Geracao RSU (Real) - ton/ano
Geracao RSU ( Curva de Regressão) -
ton/ano
Periodo
INPC -61,0% -53,1% -10,4% -74,9% 100,0%
IPCA -59,9% -52,8% -8,1% -72,7% 96,4% 100,0%
Gini -53,4% -44,7% 4,9% -63,7% 50,3% 48,3% 100,0%
Energy
Accumulated
(kWh / year)
93,2% 96,7% 83,9% 76,8% -44,1% -44,7% -25,1% 100,0%
Water
Consumption (m³
/ year)
99,1% 99,4% 73,3% 90,1% -56,4% -56,7% -42,8% 95,9% 100,0%
MSW generation
(t/year)
83,4% 88,3% 82,8% 61,6% -26,2% -31,6% -29,2% 92,9% 86,0% 100,0%
Source: Carvalho Jr., 2015.
It was noted that the generation of MSW in Fortaleza, between the years 2001 to 2011, had a strong correlation,
other words, above 70% (83.44%). This proves that not only was growth linked to the urban population, but especially
with growth in economy standards, because of consumption, especially of social classes which amounted in recent
years.
Importantly, the variables that had a stronger positive correlation with the generation of solid waste were: Energy
Consumption (R = 92.85%), GDP (R = 88.29%), water consumption (R = 86%), time (R = 83.44%), and HDI (R =
82.84%), other words, these variables express a relationship of cause and effect with the generation of MSW. Means
that, as these variables increase, the generation of waste is subject to an increase correspondingly. Other variables:
IPCA, INPC and the GINI index are the least relate to the generation of MSW. So not been selected to formulate the
equation response. Found regression model can thus be defined by the equation-response (1):
Y = (-18.863.381,14) + 0,052X1 + 28.231.315,30X2 – 1,27X3 + 0,00046X4 - 0,017X5 (1),
This:
Y = Generation of MSW to Fortaleza
X1 = GDP
X2 = HDI
X3 = Urban Population
X4 = Accumulated Energy
X5 = Water Consumption
The two growth curves of generation of MSW for the Municipality of Fortaleza are shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2 - Growth curves of generation of MSW to Fortaleza - 2001-2011.
Source: Carvalho Jr., 2015.
6. 6
The model represents the data well because the dependability was 80.9%, ie 80.9% of predicted value, being
explained by the variables were in the model. The remaining 19.1% is explained by other variables that are not those in
the model, and there is no way to control these.
Checking the residual standard error, or standard error of the estimate for the average solid waste, we found that the
observed values are ranging on average 12.8% over the values predicted by the model, other words, a low error ideal for
a good prediction model.
This model can be used to correctly predict the amount of solid waste generated; however, only the response
equation for the City of Fortaleza can be used.
For other cities, it is necessary to analyze the local sustainability indicators, which can test the same indicators of
sustainability of this research, following the steps above. Each city will however have your model.
CONCLUSION
Depending on the results of this study, we conclude that the environmental sustainability indicators that influence
the generation of municipal solid waste for the city of Fortaleza, hierarchically are: electricity consumption, GDP at
current prices, consumption of treated water, time , HDI and the urban population.
Additional indicators analyzed as the IPCA, the GINI index and the INPC, are variables that have a weak correlation
with the generation of municipal waste to Fortaleza. Therefore, it is useful to say that there is no significant relation of
cause and effect between them. Therefore, they were not selected to be part of the equation-response.
The indicated-like equation to quantify the response of MSW generation model is efficient and can be used for the
city of Fortaleza.
It was found specifically in the city of Fortaleza, Ceará, there is an increase in the generation of MSW from the last
decade, due not only to the increase of urban population in Brazil, but mainly because of fluctuations the economy in a
country that is rapidly developing. These changes result from the consumerism that encourages people, spreading a set
of values and behaviors centered on the expansion of consumption and disposal of material, exponentially increasing
the generation of MSW.
We can see the change in the type of MSW, where the inorganic fraction and plastics are growing at the expense of
the organic part of leftover food. Also the apparent specific weight of MSW, in general, been declining, due to the
greater amount of packaging.
These changes result from the consumerism that encourages people, spreading a set of values and behaviors
centered on the expansion of consumption and disposal of material, exponentially increasing the generation of MSW.
The use of this methodology in other regions it is recommended, checking that environmental sustainability
indicators influencing the growth of per capita generation of municipal solid waste, with the goal of finding a K factor
that represents the related indicators for each city studied, and thus avoid sizing errors of collection, treatment and
disposal of MSW equipment.
The indicated-like equation to quantify the response of MSW generation model is efficient and can be used for the
city of Fortaleza.
BIBLIOGRAPHICAL REFERENCES
BRAZILIAN ASSOCIATION OF CLEANING COMPANIES PUBLIC AND SPECIAL WASTE - ABRELPE.
Overview of the Solid Waste in Brazil - 2010. 199 p. 2010.
_______. Overview of the Solid Waste in Brazil - 2011. 184 p. 2011.
AUTARCHY REGULARIZATION, SUPERVISION AND CONTROL OF PUBLIC SANITATION - ACFOR.
The Management Report of Solid Waste from Fortaleza. Fortaleza - CE: Office of Solid Waste. 2005.
Barros et al, Determinants of the decline in income inequality in Brazil. Discussion papers no. In 1460. IPEA.
Available at: <http://desafios.ipea.gov.br/>. Accessed: Apr 13. 2013.
BRAZILIAN INSTITUTE OF GEOGRAPHY AND STATISTICS - IBGE. Brazil in numbers. Rio de Janeiro:
Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management, vol. 20, 2012a.