IT and Transportation Systems

A/Prof Jeffrey Funk
Division of Engineering and Technology
Management
National University of Singapore
For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

The Need for Better Transport
 Vehicle congestion costs the European Union more than
one percent of gross domestic product (GDP)—or over 100
billion Euros per year
 U.S. drivers wasted 4.2 billion hours, 2.8 billion gallons of
fuel and $87.2 billion due to vehicle congestion in 2007
 Twenty percent of CO2 emissions are the by product of
transportation
 Problems also exist for other modes of transport
 Almost one-quarter of U.S. scheduled flights in 2008 were
delayed
 Less than half of container vessels arrive in port on schedule
and empty containers are common
Sources: http://www-07.ibm.com/innovation/my/exhibit/documents/pdf/2_The_Case_For_Smarter_Transportation.pdf
Science, 6 June 2014, Vol 344, Issue 6188

Helsinki Finland’s Goal
 Helsinki wants a private car-free city by 2025
 It plans to create point-to point mobility on demand by
2025
 Use smart phones to weave together on-demand
 Minibuses
 driverless cars
 Bikes
 Conventional buses
 Singapore may have similar goals, supported by high cost
of ownership (COE – cost of entitlement)
 Kishore Mahbubani, Dean of NUS School of Public Policy
wants roads dedicated to Autonomous Vehicles in order to
reduce private car ownership and space for roads.

Can Information Technology Help?
 Rapid rates of improvement (>30%) in
 Microprocessors, memory storage (DRAM, Flash,
magnetic), Internet bandwidth (wireless, wireline),
smart phones
 Lasers, LEDs, MEMS and other sensors
 Moderate rates of improvement in (~15%)
 power electronics
 displays
 Slow rates of improvement (<10%) in
 hydrogen vehicles
 electric vehicle storage densities (and thus range) and
costs

Open Source Software is Also Important
 Use of Open Source Software
Continues to Increase
 One Study Concluded 84% of
software developers had recently
used open source software
http://www.zdnet.com/article/survey-indicates-
four-out-of-five-developers-now-use-open-
source/
 Greater use of open source
software can reduce cost of
software for
 public transport systems (e.g.,
GPS, smart phone apps)
 Dedicated roads to automated
vehicles
 Electric vehicle charging systems

Session Technology
1 Objectives and overview of course
2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?
3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that
better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling
4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems
5 Internet of Things, MEMS and Bio-electronics
6 Chinese New Year
7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays
8 Roll-to Roll Printing, Human-Computer Interfaces
9 Information Technology and Land Transportation
10 DNA Sequencing and Solar Cells
This is the 9th Session of MT5009

Outline
 IT and smart phones facilitates new forms of
transportation*
 State of transportation
 Smart phones and
 buses, multiple passenger ride sharing,
 trucking, bike sharing, and parking
 Roads dedicated to driverless vehicles
 Greater use of electric vehicles
 Energy/Power Storage Density
 Electrification of Vehicles
 Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless
Charging
 Different Cities, Different Futures
Many startups: https://angel.co/ride-sharing-1

Cars, Cars, and more Cars
 Private cars are primary mode of
transportation in most developed
countries
 Particularly in the U.S.
 Less so in Japan and Europe
 They are parked 95% of the time
 When they are driven, they usually
have a single driver and are stuck in
traffic
 Unsustainable!
 Large energy usage and emissions
 Large amounts of space
 Isn’t there a better way?

Public Transportation and Sustainability
 Trains and buses consume less energy than automobiles
 20% and 40% energy per passenger-kilometer in London
 9% and 28% the energy per passenger-kilometer in Japan
 What impacts on these numbers?
 Trains and buses also
 reduce vehicular traffic and thus vehicle congestion
 use less land than do automobiles
 Land is very expensive in downtown areas
 $2,000 to $5,000 SGD per square foot for condos near
Orchard Road
 Probably $20,000 to $50,000 SGD for automobile space on
road
 Who pays for road and parking space?
 What is definition of opportunity cost?

In the U.S. the Governments Pays
Doesn’t Include Gas Taxes, Road Tolls, Land Value, Other User Fees
Source: US PIRG, Frontier Group
http://www.uspirg.org/sites/pirg/files/reports/Who%20Pays%20for%20Roads%20vUS.pdf

Conventional
Wisdom:
High urban
densities
(and
centralized
cities)
are needed for
low energy
consumption
in transport
Newman P, Kenworthy J 1989. Cities and
automobile dependence : a sourcebook.
Aldershot Hants England: Gower Technica

Why do Dense Cities have Lower Energy Usage?
 Shorter distances to travel
 More walking and bicycling in dense than in less dense
cities
 Vehicle, bus, and train trips are shorter
 Better economics of public transportation
 Both lead to lower energy usage in transportation
 Examples of extremes
 Long car commutes in Los Angeles
 Short bus or train commutes in Hong Kong

0
20
40
60
80
100
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Asia
Canada
Australia
US
Density (per hectare)
Public Transport Usage (%) is Higher in Dense Cities
(Asia, Canada, Australia, US)
Newman P, Kenworthy J 1989. Cities and automobile dependence : a sourcebook. Aldershot Hants England: Gower Technica

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
A More Detailed Look at Canada, Australia, and US
New US Cities
Decentralized
Designed for Cars
Old U.S.
Cities
Australia
Canada
Density (per hectare)
Public
Transport
*Note that density data varies by source

Why the Differences?
 Public Transportation tends to be more economic when
 Population is large, population density is high
 Cities are designed around walking (and not cars)
 Cities are centralized and commuting is one direction (e.g.,
Tokyo)
 Public Transportation is often designed for centralized
one direction commuting during peak hours
 Easy to design; just bring people
downtown for work, then back home
 Train and bus routes are fixed,
repeat same routes
 Routes are repeated with only changes
in frequency of service by time of day

Centralized Cities/Rail Lines
(with multiple centers emerging)

Where are Centers?
Multiple centers
quickly emerged in
cities of Arizona,
Texas, California,
Florida and thus no
center of rail system
One Center Multiple Centers

Implications
 Public transport is best for dense centralized cities
 Even though trains, buses running in opposite direction
empty
 Thus, trains and buses have smaller advantages than expected
 Train and bus energy use per passenger-distance are 9% and 28% of
cars in Tokyo and are 20% and 40% of cars in London respectively
 Shorter distances are probably bigger reason for lower energy usage
 Spreading peak demand is often big goal
 For decentralized low-density cities (LA) with multi-
direction travel, increases in public transportation
usage are difficult to achieve
 Private cars may always be dominate mode of transport
 Increased use of public transportation may require large changes in
residential organization or increases in densities

Is there Another Way?
 Can IT and smart phones enable
services that are cheaper, faster, and use
less energy than existing services
 Better bus services
 Multiple passenger ride sharing services
 Driverless vehicles

Riding Buses is a Hassle
 Which bus?
 Where is the bus stop?
 When do the buses arrive?
 Where is that guide to buses?
 Typical American response: Maybe I should
just take a taxi or buy a car…..
 But help is on the way

Global Positioning Systems (GPS)
Space segment -
composed of GPS
satellites that transmit
time & position
in the form of radio
signals to the user
Control segment -
composed of all the
ground-based facilities
that are used to
monitor and control
the satellites
User segment - consists of
the users & GPS receivers

GPS: Improvements in Accuracy
Ref: http://www.gps.gov
ErrorsFall

Improvements in GPS continue to Occur

More Detailed Data on Improvements in Accuracy
(reductions in root mean square for x, y, and z axes)

Along with Improvements in other Electronics,
Phones are Becoming Great Navigation Devices
Many Apps are Also Available

With GPS on
buses and data
made public,
apps for
buses are also
emerging and
getting better

Phones Help Us Know Routes, Bus Stops, and Bus Arrival Times

Can These Apps Increase Bus Ridership?
 Bus apps can (or will eventually) tell you
 Locations of bus stops (and train stations and you)
 Arrival times, within a few minutes.
 When to start walking to bus stop
 Data on riders also helps bus companies do route planning
 Some apps summarize transport alternatives and their comparative
times among buses, trains, bikes
 Smart phones will become cheap enough for all 7 Billion of the
world’s population, and they will continue to get better
 Displays become more sensitive, durable, flexible and conform better to
wrists and other parts of our bodies
 See Sessions 4, 6 and 8 for more information on phones, displays and
human-computer interfaces http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
 Can open source software reduce the capital costs of these systems?
http://www.thirteen.org/metrofocus/2012/03/does-knowing-count-comparing-urban-bus-tracking-systems-and-ridership/
http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/local-buses-to-receive-gps-tracking-upgrades/article_50f648f1-1b68-5ab1-afaa-8221d621840b.html?mode=jqm

Can WiFi Increase Ridership?
 Providing free Wi-Fi to bus and train riders can
increase users of buses and trains
 Cost of Wi-Fi keeps falling so this becomes an
increasingly inexpensive perk for riders
 People can enjoy their public transportation
experience more than they can driving their cars
 Can choose education or entertainment
 No road rage! Uber to Offer Free Wi-Fi in India
http://www.wsj.com/articles/uber-to-offer-india-passengers-free-wi-fi-1440136803

A New Form of Transportation:
Uber’s Services are just the Start!
 Multiple passenger ride sharing
 Can provide costs as low as public transport and times as fast as
private cars and taxis
 IF many people use same routes at same times
 Positioning
 Between public transport and private cars/taxis
 Shared ride could be on bus, mini-bus, van, or passenger vehicle
 We focus on 10-15 passenger van for semantic simplicity
 Improvements in IT facilitate ride sharing
 Smart phones enable booking
 Big data provides better data on routes with many travellers
 GPS and fast computers enable vehicles to have very complex routes

Let’s Design Services that Match Real Demand
 Use big data to understand
 People’s actual starting and ending points by time of day
 Provide direct van services for high demand routes and times
 Full vans can have fewer stops, partly since they are smaller than
traditional buses
 Fewer stops reduce travel times, thus increasing user value
 High demand routes use more vans or buses (and not bigger buses)
 Vans follow multiple routes during day, facilitated by GPS
 Real demand determines fixed routes
 Vans follow demand as it changes from commuting to meetings and
shopping during middle of day
 During non-peak commuting times, vans can also be used for other
transport needs, such as deliveries (see below)

 Jump to multiple passenger ride sharing services
 Slides 13 to 27

What are the Entrepreneurial
Opportunities?


What are the Entrepreneurial
Opportunities?
 New services from private companies
 Do everything? Or
 Lease vehicles from someone
 Lease IT and data from someone
 Use contract as opposed to full-time employees
 Public transport can
 use IT to provide better services
 outsource IT or other functions to private companies
 Private companies can buy public transport companies
 What types of assets become more valuable?

Trucking
 Why do I ask about trucking?
 What do you think is happening?

Logistics is still very inefficient
 Food delivery trucks are transporting goods only 10% of the
time (empty 90% of the time)
 Many trucks sit unused at owners HDB parking lot in Singapore
 Logistics accounts for >10% of finished product’s cost and
about 15% of world’s GNP
 $700 billion in US, 335 billion in Europe
 In U.S.
 Logistics is very fragmented
 While top 5 airlines earn 90% of revenues, top 5 logistic
companies earn 20% of revenues
 Many individuals own trucks (owner-operated trucks)
 28% of mileage is empty trucks
Source: Science, 6 June 2014, Vol 344, Issue 6188
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21693946-digital-help-hand-fragmented-and-often-inefficient-industry-appy-trucker

Possible Solutions
 More standardization of containers and communication protocols
for communication (e.g., radio tags)
 More third party services that enable sharing of transportation
assets
 Trucks, warehouses,
 Ships, containers, cranes
 New services (in addition to Uber)
 Cargomatic and Transfix lets shippers list jobs on app and then
truckers bid for them. Drivers are rated for on-time delivery
 Kontainers and Convoy offer services for longer trips, that also involve
ships
 Payments are also faster with apps
 One study concluded that 16% of third-party logistics will be
enabled through mobile platforms by 2025 http://ww2.frost.com/news/press-
releases/uber-trucking-ushering-new-era-north-american-freight-movement-logistics-market/
Source: Science, 6 June 2014, Vol 344, Issue 6188
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21693946-digital-help-hand-fragmented-and-often-inefficient-industry-appy-trucker

Denmark was just
ranked number 1
in terms of happiness

Popular Countries and Cities for
Bicycles
 Mostly Europe and Japan
 http://www.copenhagenize.com/2009/07/worlds-
most-bicycle-friendly-cities.html
 www.spokefly.com/blog/top-10-countries-bicycles-
per-capita/

Other Cities Have Similar Problems

http://inhabitat.com/tokyos-eco-cycle-park-is-a-state-of-the-art-
underground-bicycle-elevator/
http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2013/06/5-robotic-bike-parking-
systems-that-solve-an-urban-dilemma/
Are these the Solutions? More Storage Spaces?

Figure 4. From chaos to order: the benefits of bike storage
Can we Move from Chaos to Order?

How About Bicycle Sharing?
How does it work
Users register for service, borrow bikes using
phones, phones help find bike stations
Advantages
Reduced space for bike storage
Space can be used for
other things
Faster parking and finding
of bicycles
Can facilitate train usage
What is it?
Borrow bikes for short time period
Challenges
Maintenance
Redistribution of
bicycles
Thefts/vandalism
Costs?
Less than one dollar through open source
software and sufficient volumes
http://www.slideshare.net/renartz/sharing-space-time?qid=a5a9db03-bba1-4cc0-b2e2-27c76655899b&v=default&b=&from_search=3

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/3-charts-explain-nyc-bike-share-success-2014-3
Between launch in
May 2013 and
March 2014,
Users of NY City’s
bike share program
took more than 6.5
million Citi Bike
trips, and nearly
100,000 people
have become
annual riders.
Many of these bikes
are used in
combination with
rail.
Bike Sharing can Promote Rail Usage

NY City Placed more of the bike stations close
to rail stations than did Chicago or Washington DC

NY (Citi Bike) vs. Chicago (Divvy) and Washington DC (Capital)

Capital (top) and Operating Costs Can be High
http://www.slideshare.net/renartz/sharing-space-time?qid=a5a9db03-bba1-4cc0-b2e2-27c76655899b&v=default&b=&from_search=3

But Remember
 More users lead to lower capital and operating costs per user
 The cost of these systems will fall as
 cost of information technology (including phones) falls
 and we design better systems, perhaps using open source software
 can universities promote open source software?
 As smart phones get better, sharing bikes becomes easier
 Space for bicycle storage can be sold or leased to finance bike
sharing systems
 Bicycle storage is usually in expensive downtown locations
 Often next to train stations
 This space can be sold or leased to restaurants, cafes, etc. for millions of
dollars each year

http://www.earth-policy.org/plan_b_updates/2013/update112

What are Entrepreneurial
Opportunities?

What are the Entrepreneurial Opportunities?
 Private or public companies provide bike sharing
services
 Provide services to those providing bike sharing
services
 Provide bicycles
 Move and maintain bicycles
 Provide IT
 Find and provide land
 Help generate interest in shared bicycles
 What types of assets become more valuable?

 Will there always be a need for parking?

Parking Problems Are Everywhere
 Some people spend more time looking for parking
spaces than going someplace
 In 15-block stretch of NY’s Upper West side, motorists
were estimated to cruise a total of 366,000 miles a year
(further than moon)
 45% of traffic on streets in Brooklyn related to searching
for parking, 24% in Soho
 Singapore has fewer, but similar problems
 I see the queues for parking garages from my taxi
 Ineffective parking solutions also lead to greater
energy usage and emissions, and frustration!
The Future of Transportation http://nyti.ms/1e4UaZM
http://www.slideshare.net/ChristianMcCarrick/facilitating-mobility-parking-public-and-alternative-transportation?qid=
68d590a9-c62f-4c24-9b5f-236c36c6dda2&v=default&b=&from_search=4

Smart phones Enable New Solutions
 Use phones to find available parking garages and
reserve spots
 This can also increase utilization of parking facilities
 One study found that IT enabled increase from 17% to
38%
 Parking apps are emerging but are very controversial
 MonkeyParking and Haystack allowed bidding for
spots
 The problem is that the app suppliers were selling
something they or their users don’t own
 Cities made the services illegal
The Future of Transportation http://nyti.ms/1e4UaZM
http://www.slideshare.net/ChristianMcCarrick/facilitating-mobility-parking-public-and-alternative-transportation?qid=
68d590a9-c62f-4c24-9b5f-236c36c6dda2&v=default&b=&from_search=4

Smart Phones Enable New Solutions (2)
 In new solution, driver presses app and chooses
destination
 When he arrives, an agent takes his car away
 Zirx has 300 agents parking the cars
 The firm views parking has a first step – washing the
care and changing the oil are the future
 Very expensive………..
 Better ideas
 Cities offer apps, they should be getting the money
 Smart parking meters that adjust prices for demand or
that can be reserved (Internet of Things)
 Reduce number of parking spaces
 Set prices that equal real costs, including opportunity
costs

What are the Entrepreneurial Opportunities?
 Cities need to offer better parking solutions
 But private companies can provide cities with
these better solutions
 IT
 Apps
 What about helping cities plan for parking
 How many parking spots are needed?
 Better understanding of opportunity costs, by area, by
time
 Why are opinions on this matter changing?
 What is the value of land?

Roads Dedicated to AVs
 Improvements in IT are making this economically feasible
 While not as environmentally friendly as bicycles, buses, and
trains, dedicating roads to AVs can
 reduce inter-vehicle distances on roads
 reduce delays at traffic signals (even eliminate them)
 and thus increase capacity of roads and reduce congestion
 lower congestion will increase fuel efficiency (figure 7) and
reduce carbon emissions
 In the long term, AVs can
 reduce car ownership and
 thus necessary space for roads and parking
 cities can use reduced space to close parking garages and block
vehicles from some streets, thus resulting in higher quality city
environments.

Dedicated Roads Lead to Higher Capacity Roads

Dedicated Roads Lead to Fewer Delays at Traffic Signals

Roads dedicated to AVs can have higher speeds and
thus higher Fuel Efficiencies
Can we move these
cars at 30MPH or faster?

Cost of Autonomous Vehicles (Google Car) Falls as Improvements
in Lasers and Other “Components” Occur
Source: Wired Magazine, http://www.wired.com/magazine/2012/01/ff_autonomouscars/3/

Better Lasers, Camera chips, MEMS, ICs, GPS Are Making these
Vehicles Economically Feasible 1 Radar: triggers alert when something
is in blind spot
2 Lane-keeping: Cameras recognize lane
markings by spotting contrast between road
surface and boundary lines
3 LIDAR: Light Detection and Ranging
system depends on 64 lasers, spinning at
upwards of 900 rpm, to generate a 360-
degree view
4 Infrared Camera: camera detects
objects
5 Stereo Vision: two cameras build a
real-time 3-D image of the road ahead
6 GPS/Inertial Measurement: tells us
location on map
7 Wheel Encoder: wheel-mounted
sensors measure wheel velocity
ICs interpret and act on this data

What an Autonomous Vehicle Sees

When Will AVs Become Economically Feasible?
 Three years ago, the cost of “Google Car” was $150,000
 most for electronic components
 about $70,000 for LIDAR from Velodyne
 Current rates of improvement are 30%-40%
 If costs drop 25% a year, cost of electronics will drop by 90%
in ten years
 May be evolutionary move towards AVs as Sensors are
incorporated into existing vehicles http://www.ti.com/ww/en/analog/car-of-
the-future/?DCMP=gma-tra-carofthefuture-en&HQS=carofthefuture-bs-en
 But many of these costs have dropped faster than this
calculation
 Velodyne offers LIDAR for $8,000
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jun/02/autonomous-cars-expensive-google-
http://www.wsj.com/articles/continental-buys-sensor-technology-for-self-driving-cars-1457042039

When Will AVs Become Economically Feasible?
 Others believe the cost of LIDAR can be further reduced
 Tesla Motor CEO Elon Musk claims 8-camera system is
sufficient
 Can see all around the car
 What about dedicating roads or lanes in roads to AVs?
 Would this reduce the technical requirements of the cars and
thus make them cheaper?
 Cars could rely more on wireless communication, magnetic
stripes and other inexpensive sensors than on LIDAR
 AVs could move very quickly thus reducing travel time, no
more traffic jams!
http://www.wsj.com/articles/continental-buys-sensor-technology-for-self-driving-cars-1457042039

By the Way
 Automation is proceeding faster with
industrial vehicles
 Trucks
 Mining vehicles
 Forklifts
 Automation
 Automatic shifting, braking when
approaching vehicle
 Sound alerts when moving into another
lane
 Show video of blind spots
 Anti-collision
 Blind-spot alerts
 Platooning
http://www.wsj.com/articles/truckers-gain-
an-automated-assist-1438939801

Many Advantages for Autonomous Vehicles
and Roads Dedicated to Them
 Less congestion and higher fuel efficiencies
 More cars per area and thus either higher capacity roads or
fewer roads
 Fewer crashes, accidents, deaths, ambulances, and insurance
expenditures
 Biggest problems for AVs is drivers
 Lighter vehicles might become more common since lower
probability of accidents (higher fuel efficiency)
 Less traffic tickets and police officers
 Along with public transportation, less ownership of vehicles
and less parking spaces
Sources: http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/05/for-self-driving-car-future-traffic.html#more
See next slide for more details on references

Sources from last slide
A highly popular article on Slashdot and Reddit Futurologymakes note that the Google driverless car has not gotten a traffic ticket after driving 700,000
miles. Local government revenue in the USA was $1.73 trillion in 2014. So the traffic tickets make up 0.38% of the local government revenue.
Self driving cars could save $500 billion in the USA from avoided crashes and traffic jams and can boost city productivity by 30% of urban GDP after a
few decades enabling larger and denser cities. So traffic tickets are 1.2% of the $500 billion from avoided crashes and traffic jams in the US. It is even
less worldwide with more crashes and traffic jam costs. It is 0.15% of the 30% of urban GDP. In 2010, there were an estimated 5,419,000 crashes, killing
32,885 and injuring 2,239,000 in the United States. According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), 33,561 people died in
motor vehicle crashes in 2012, up 3.3 percent from 32,479 in 2011. In 2012, an estimated 2,362,000 people were injured in motor vehicle crashes, up
6.5 percent from 2,217,000 in 2011. In 2012, the average auto liability claim for property damage was $3,073; the average auto liability claim for bodily
injury was $14,653. In 2012, the average collision claim was $2,950; the average comprehensive claim was $1,585. The Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention says in 2010 that the cost of medical care and productivity losses associated with motor vehicle crash injuries was over $99 billion, or nearly
$500, for each licensed driver in the United States. All car crash costs in the USA are estimated at $400 billion per year. In 2013, worldwide the total
number of road traffic deaths remains unacceptably high at 1.24 million per year
Traffic Congestion $100 billion cost in the USA
In the USA, using standard measures, waste associated with traffic congestion summed to $101 billion of delay and fuel cost. The cost to the average
commuter was $713 in 2010 compared to an inflation-adjusted $301 in 1982 Sixty million Americans suffered more than 30 hours of delay in 2010 1.9
billion gallons of fuel were wasted because of traffic congestion Traffic congestion caused aggregate delays of 4.8 billion hours. Transport 2012.org puts
a 200 billion Euro price tag on congestion in Europe (approximately 2% of GDP). Central America also has its traffic woes. Let’s not forget other
countries. On the weekend, Panama found that the price of congestion for business and the community was somewhere between $500 million-$2
billion annually. According to the Asian Development Bank, road congestion costs economies 2%–5% of gross domestic product every year due to lost
time and higher transport costs.
More traffic density and Larger, More Productive City populations can boost GDP by 30%
Google told the world it has developed computer driving tech that is basically within reach of doubling (or more) the capacity of a road lane to pass cars.
Pundits don’t seem to realize just how big a deal this is – it could let cities be roughly twice as big, all else equal. Seminal work by Ciccone and Hall
(1996) assessed the impacts of density on productivity in the US, and found that doubling employment density, and keeping all other factors constant,
increased average labor productivity by around 6%. Subsequent work by Ciccone (1999) found that in Europe, all other things being equal, doubling
employment density increased productivity by 5%. A third paper (Harris and Ioannides, 2000) applies the logic directly to metropolitan areas and also
finds a 6% increase in productivity with a doubling of density. More recent work by Dan Graham (2005b, 2006) examines the relationship between
increased effective density (which takes into account time travelled between business units) and increased productivity across different industries.
Graham finds that across the whole economy, the urbanisation elasticity (that is, the response of productivity to changes in density) is 0.125. This
means that a 10% increase in effective density, holding all other factors constant, is associated with a 1.25% increase in productivity for firms in that
area. Doubling the density of an area would result in a 12.5% increase in productivity. Economist Robin Hanson noted that doubling the population of
any city requires only about an 85% increase in infrastructure, whether that be total road surface, length of electrical cables, water pipes or number of
petrol stations. This systematic 15% savings happens because, in general, creating and operating the same infrastructure at higher densities is more
efficient, more economically viable, and often leads to higher-quality services and solutions that are impossible in smaller places. Interestingly, there
are similar savings in carbon footprints — most large, developed cities are ‘greener’ than their national average in terms of per capita carbon emission.
Road capacity could be boosted by 4 times using robotic cars. This could be another 30% boost to productivity.
http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/05/for-self-driving-car-future-traffic.html#more

Real Benefits of AVs Come When Roads are
Dedicated to Them
 Vehicles are Controlled by Wireless
Communication Technologies on Dedicated Roads
 Cars are checked for autonomous capability when
they enter a dedicated road
 Route plans are checked and integrated with other
route plans
 Improvements in computer processing power
facilitate checking and integrating
 Much of these calculations would be done in
secure cloud

Roads Dedicated to AVs also Simplifies Solutions
 Magnets and RFID tags can
be embedded in highways to
help control vehicles
 They create an invisible
railway
 Estimated cost in Singapore
 <200M SGD for magnets
 <110M SGD for RFID
 Very cheap, less than 2SGD
per vehicle

Wireless Communication May Become Main
Method of Controlling AVs
 Vehicles are Controlled by Wireless Communication
Technologies on Dedicated Roads
 Cars are checked for autonomous capability when
they enter a dedicated road
 Route plans are checked and integrated with other
route plans
 Improvements in computer processing power
facilitate checking and integrating
 Much of these calculations would be done in secure
cloud

Improvements in Latency (delay times) Enable
Centralized Control of Vehicles

Latency is Still Falling
 Expected to fall below 0.1 milliseconds with wireless
5G services that will be implemented by early 2020s
 Jones R 2015. Telecom’s Next Goal: Defining 5G, Wall Street Journal, March 9.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/telecom-industry-bets-on-5g-1425895320
 Could AVs become the main market for cellular 5G
services?
 Along with IoT
 Processing is done in cloud and the cost of these
cloud services continues to fall
 Falling latency requires better IT, but this keeps
occurring through Moore’s Law

High Processing Capability is Needed to Control Vehicles
Improvements in Integrated Circuits and Computers Enable this Processing Power
Processing power for 100 km road by vehicle inflow and reaction times
(Several thousands PCs)

Many of the Computer Calculations (price per car)
Would be Done in the Cloud

Moore’s Law Drives Reductions in Cloud
Computing Services (price per car)

Less Ownership of Private Vehicles?
 Autonomous vehicles make autonomous taxis feasible
 Just reserve a taxi with your smart phone
 Combined with other changes, private ownership of
cars will probably continue to drop
 Increased use of public transportation
 New services such as those from Uber (easy to rent taxis)
and Zipcar (rent cars)
 Uber’s service may also revolutionize delivery; rent a
delivery service with your smart phone

Key Issue for Cities
 Do they reduce the amount of road and parking space?
 Or do they keep the same space, and thus allow many
more vehicles on the road?
 How does this choice impact on sustainability and
quality of life?
 Do people ride vehicles more?
 Do they ride them further distances
 The U.S. federal government wants to subsidize AVs
because they are safer than regular vehicles
http://www.wsj.com/articles/obama-administration-proposes-spending-4-billion-on-driverless-car-
guidelines-1452798787

 Average miles driven per capita is
falling
 Fewer car licenses for young people
 City residents don’t own cars
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/01/why-do-the-smartest-cities-have-the-smallest-share-of-cars/283234//
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/09/the-dubious-
future-of-the-american-car-business-in-14-charts/279422/
56%
The End of Car in U.S.?
http://www.advisorperspectives.com/
dshort/updates/DOT-Miles-Traveled.php

Outline
 IT and smart phones facilitates new forms of
transportation
 State of transportation
 Route planning, scheduling, and tickets
 smart phones and parking
 smart phones and buses
 smart phones and bike sharing
 Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles
 Greater use of electric vehicles
 Energy/Power Storage Density
 Electrification of Vehicles
 Density of Charging Stations and Wired vs. Wireless Charging
 Different Cities, Different Futures

Many Ways to Do Electric Vehicles
 1) Electric vehicle with same range and acceleration as
gasoline engines
 Electric motors have similar power densities as engines
 But low energy and power storage densities of batteries
(and capacitors and flywheels) make this difficult to achieve
 2) Use both gasoline and electric storage, i.e., hybrid
 Very expensive to include both
 Most users choose vehicles based on price
 3) All electric but with low capacity electric storage
and high density of (rapid) charging stations
 Can we recharge more frequently?
 With rapid charging and/or high density of charging
stations?
 With wireless or wired charging?

Source: (Koh and Magee, 2008)
Electric Motors Have Similar Power Density as Engines

Major Bottleneck is Low Energy Storage Density of Batteries
30 times lower for
batteries
Why is this
important?
When will
batteries have
similar levels of
energy density
as gasoline?
1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH
MegaJoulesPerLiter
MegaJoules Per Kg

High Energy Densities
 Are obviously important for vehicles
 The vehicle must carry the fuel/battery
 Vicious cycle: heavier fuel/battery means more
fuel/battery is needed
 Energy/Power densities are important for all
energy technologies
 Higher energy/power density of engines leads to better
fuel efficiency and performance for automobiles,
aircraft, ships
 Even for stationary engines, higher energy/power
densities often lead to lower costs per output since costs
are often related to size

Storage type Specific energy (MJ/kg)
Indeterminate matter and antimatter 89,876,000,000 *
Deuterium-tritium fusion 576,000,000
Uranium-235 used in nuclear weapons 88,250,000
Natural uranium (99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235) in fast breeder reactor 86,000,000
Reactor-grade uranium (3.5% U-235) in light water reactor 3,456,000
30% Pu-238 α-decay 2,200,000
Hf-178m2 isomer 1,326,000
Natural uranium (0.7% U235) in light water reactor 443,000
30% Ta-180m isomer 41,340
Even Higher Energy Densities Exist
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density
*about 4740 kg of antimatter could have supplied humans with all their energy needs in 2008. for more information
on anti-matter, see Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, New York: Doubleday, 2008

Another way to look at energy density:
This is from the perspective of land
Source: Vaclav Smil

Source: Koh and Magee, 2008
Returning to Energy Storage Density for Batteries
(Improvements per weight)
1 megajoule = 0.28 kwH
Batteries

Improvements in Energy Storage Density (per volume)
Batteries

Improvements in Energy Storage (per cost)
Batteries
2012
Electric
Vehicle

Sources: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future, presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October
19-20. http://electronicdesign.com/power/here-comes-electric-propulsion http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/12/panasonic-20091225.html
More Recent Data on Li-Ion Batteries (5% per year)

http://qnovo.blogspot.sg/2014/11/30.html
Bad News: Vehicle Batteries are more Expensive (and
have lower Energy Densities) than Laptop Batteries

Batteries have Large Impact on Vehicle Costs
 Ford Motor Co. CEO Alan Mulally said in April 2012
 Battery weighs 600-700 pounds and provides 23 kilowatt hours
(120 km?)
 Battery costs 12-15,000 USD
 In other words, the batteries represent a significant fraction
of total price ($12,000 to $15,000 for car that normally sells for
about $22,000).
 total price about $39,200 for Ford’s Focus EV
 Electric and hybrid vehicle suppliers depend on subsidies
 See below
 There’s only 3 suppliers of batteries for vehicles, small
number for such an important technology……………
http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304432704577350052534072994
http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-is-a-compliance-company-1438987210
http://www.wsj.com/articles/auto-industrys-ranks-of-electric-car-battery-suppliers-narrow-1440021009?mod=LS1

Howell D 2014. Overview of the DOE Advances Battery R&D Program.
http://theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/347491/making-low-carbon-future-better-well-cheaper
Gasoline has 70 times
higher energy density
than do electric vehicle
batteries
Faster rate of improve
ment for EV batteries
 19% per year for
energy density
 25% per year for costs
But it will take 25 years
for batteries to equal
gasoline in energy
density, if trend continues
Gasoline has 44.4 MJ Per kg and 32.5
MJ per Liter. Since 1 MJ equals
0.28 kWh, gasoline has 12.4 kWh per
kg and 9.1 kWh per liter. 70 times
more
Good News: Vehicle Batteries Might be Experiencing
Faster Rates of Improvement than Laptop/Phone Batteries

Nature (http://www.nature.com/news/the-rechargeable-revolution-a-better-battery-1.14815), March 2014
And scientists believe Li-ion batteries are
reaching their limits and something else is
needed (Note: Gasoline has 12,000 Wh/kg and 330
Wh/kg = 600 Wh/L)

Batteries will Likely be Bottleneck for Decades
 How can we solve this problem?
 Flywheels and capacitors have faster rates of
improvement
 Capacitors are fastest but much lower levels than the others
 Flywheels have similar levels as batteries and faster rates of
improvement
 Both are used in Formula 1 vehicles
 How can we reduce need for high energy storage
densities?
 Hybrids is current option, but they will always be more
expensive than conventional vehicles
 Can we recharge more frequently? With rapid charging
and/or high density of charging stations?
 Should we use wired or wireless charging?

What About Tesla?
 $30 Billion Market Capitalization, but no profits
 Popular CEO, Elon Musk
 Making big investments in electric vehicles and Li-ion
batteries
 Sells at a loss, in spite of heavy subsidies from governments
 $7500 from US government
 Up to $6000 in some states
 Resalable ZEV (zero emission vehicle) credits in some states (up
to $35,000 per car)
 When averaged over Tesla’s vehicles, $20,000 per car
 Will Tesla succeed?
 Interestingly, its supplier of batteries has a $2.4 billion market
capitalization
http://nyti.ms/1JCo1jT http://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-secures-lithium-hydroxide-supply-for-its-battery-factory-1440767689
http://www.wsj.com/articles/voters-should-be-mad-at-electric-cars-1457737805

Electrification of Vehicles (1)
 It’s not just the addition of an energy storage devices;
electrical controls are replacing mechanical controls
 water and oil pumps, radiator cooling fans
 steering systems, brakes, throttles, shock absorbers
 The next great step, which has already occurred in
locomotives, large trucks, and aircraft
 Electric drive trains will replace the gearbox, driveshaft,
differential
 They have higher power densities and are more reliable
than drives that rely on shafts, gears, belts, and hydraulic
fluids
 This enables significant reduction in weight of car and
thus amount of energy storage density in batteries

More general source: Peter Huber, Mark Mills, 2006, The Bottomless Well:
The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy

http://cesa-automotive-electronics.blogspot.sg/2012/09/dual-voltage-power-supply-system-with.html

Electrification of Vehicles (2)
 Part of the trend towards electrical controls are being
driven by improvements in semiconductors
 Electrical controls use semiconductors
 Power semiconductors experience improvements each year
as do integrated circuits (ICs)
 Improvements occur in dimension of more power per area
(through new materials) and thus lower costs
 but not to the extent of microprocessors and memory
 Several types of power electronics/semiconductors
 Greater power requires more expensive power electronics
 Faster rates of improvement with lower power
Sources: http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/eper_07.htm and The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the
Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy, Peter Huber and Mark P. Mills

http://www.appliedmaterials.com/nanochip/nanochip-fab-
Greater Power Requires More Expensive Power Electronics
(Insulated Gate
Bipolar Transistor)
Metal Oxide Semiconductor
Field Effect Transistors)

Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies-
challenge-assembly-and-system-setups
Improvements in IGBTs are Slow – only 3.4% per year
(Reductions in Voltages for same Current and thus reductions in area and cost)

Source: http://www.embedded.com/design/components-and-packaging/4371098/New-power-semiconductor-technologies-
challenge-assembly-and-system-setups
Improvements in MOSFETs are Much Faster (16% per year)
(Reductions in Resistance for same Current and thus Reductions in Area and Costs)

http://www.eetimes.com/document.asp?doc_id=1272514
New Materials Have Even Lower Resistance and Higher
Breakdown Voltages, which Leads to Higher Current Densities

Timing for Electrification of Vehicles
 It is going to happen very soon
 Much faster than doubling of energy storage densities
 Electrification will reduce weight of vehicle and
thus necessary size of energy storage device
 It will have a larger percentage impact on small
than large cars
 It can be another facilitator of electric vehicles
 Let’s return to electric vehicles
 Where improvements in power electronics are also
improving the economic feasibility of charging
equipment for electric vehicles

Many Ways to Do Electric Vehicles
 1) Electric vehicle with same range and acceleration as
gasoline engines
 Electric motors have similar power densities as engines
 Low energy and power storage densities of batteries (and
capacitors and flywheels) make this difficult to achieve
 2) Use both gasoline and electric storage, i.e., hybrid
 Very expensive to include both
 Most users choose vehicles based on price
 3) All electric but with low capacity electric storage and
high density of (rapid) charging stations
 Can we recharge more frequently?
 With rapid charging and/or high density of charging stations?
 With wired or wireless charging?

High Density of (Rapid) Charging Stations
 Greater density of charging stations enables greater
frequency of battery charging and thus less battery
capacity
 Fast charging can also reduce the need for battery
capacity (and need for high density of charging stations)
 Both cost and speed of charging stations depend on
power electronics and their rates of improvement
 Other improvements in IT also facilitate public charging
 GPS enables cars to more easily find and reserve a charger
 Smart payment systems and smart grids facilitate decentralized
sale of electricity and charging

Many Inefficiencies in Charging:
25.4 kWh at wall plug is reduced to 21.4 (84% efficiency)

 Cost of charging station?
 Rate of charging?
 How much more expensive for fast
charging?
 Is wireless cheaper or faster?
Can Put Charging Stations Anywhere

Cost of Charging Stations
http://www.driveclean.ca.gov/pev/Charging.php
$500-$3000
$12000-
$15000

Will the Cost of Charging Stations Fall?
Depends on the cost of power electronics and microprocessors
Microprocessor
Control Unit

Cost of Charging Stations will Fall Rapidly
 Cost of power electronics (MOSFETs) fall 16% each year
 Highest power also rises and thus rates of charging also
rise over time
 Result is both
 falling costs
 higher rates of charging
 For example, if price of 15,000 USD charger falls 10% per
year
 In 10 years the cost will be 5770 USD
 If 1,000,000 chargers (139,000 chargers/km2 or 0.139 chargers
/m2) are need in Singapore to effectively use 100,000 electric
vehicles, 5.77 Billion USD in chargers

Wireless vs. Wired Charging
 Advantages of Wireless (mostly resonant induction)
 Protected connections (away from water/oxygen)
 Durability (less wear and tear); Faster connections
 Disadvantages
 Lower efficiency/slower charging particularly as distance becomes
larger than coil diameter
 More expensive, and multiple standards
 Improvements in electronics are reducing the disadvantages

Eight Innovations for Successful Wireless Charging
 Inductive, bidirectional charging system
with 22 kilowatts and 95 percent efficiency
 Position car precisely over inductive charging
station using laser scanner
 Charging components integrated in
underground shaft
 Cloud-based charging management
 On-board unit ensures seamless
communication between fleet of shard
vehicles
 Users register, personalize profiles, book a
car or charging station with phone
 Cloud collects mobility-relevant data over
internet connection
 Cars location known via Wi-Fi positioning
system, GPS, inertial sensors
http://www.iao.fraunhofer.de/lang-en/business-areas/mobility-and-urban-systems-engineering/1111-e-car-sharing-comes-of-age.html

Wireless chargers are also made from
power and other electronics

Big Differences between Wired and Wireless
is Thin Film Coils
 Cables are replaced by thin film coils in both
 Charging stations
 Vehicles
 Thin film is the basis for all electronics
 Semiconductors, lasers, photo-sensors, magnetic storage
 Liquid crystal displays. organic displays, many solar cells
 And many other technologies that experience rapid
improvements
 Cost improvements occur as
 New materials are used
 Substrate size is increased (already done with semiconductor
wafers and liquid crystal displays)
 New processes such as roll-to roll printing

If Thin Film Coils Become Cheap,
charging can be done while driving
Old Style Tram with Rails New Style Car with coils
and Overhead Lines embedded in road
Singapore has built a test track

Continuous Charging
 Dramatically reduces size of battery
 Increases efficiency of charging since the motor is
directly charged by the coils, bypassing the battery
 But construction costs will rise………

How High are Construction Costs?
 For Wireless and Wired Charging?
 Can we find ways to reduce these costs?
 Electricity cables are everywhere underground,
particularly in Singapore and other dense cities
 How can we connect chargers to the cables?
 Place charging stations in sewers, on backs of manhole
covers, or other places?
 Only place them inside roads when road and other
construction is being implemented?
 Road construction is always being done for some
reason…..
 In the end, all of these new technologies require
innovative methods of implementing them

Different Cities, Different Futures
 Some cities will always have more public transport
than others
 Some cities will have trouble increasing their usage
of public transport
 Some reasons include differences in:
 Population density
 Early investments in public vs. private transport
 Spatial distribution of work and residences
 Direction of commutes

But some things can be said for all cities (1)
 Most cities will (and should) experience increases in
public transportation or multiple passenger ride
sharing because of
 increases in population densities
 improvements in information technologies
 Public transportation and multiple passenger ride
sharing are the most viable means of handling
large numbers of travellers
 Information technology will make it easier for
people to use buses, trains, and bicycles
 This will reduce energy usage and carbon emissions

 Most cities will (and should) experience increases in
automated vehicles because they
 have many advantages over conventional vehicles
 These advantages are particularly large when roads
are dedicated to them
 More cars per area of road and higher fuel efficiencies
 Cities can use automated vehicles and public
transportation to reduce
 need for private vehicles
 amount of space for roads and parking

 Falling cost of power and other electronics means that
cost of charging stations will also fall
 Improvements in materials will also enable faster
charging
 Both will enable electric vehicles with smaller batteries
and thus lighter and cheaper electric vehicles
 Wireless charging may end up being the most
convenient due to lower maintenance and easier
connections

Conclusions
 Information technology
 is improving the economics of public transportation
 is making new forms of transport possible
 All of these methods require effective implementation
plans and incentives
 Public and private firms should be considering rates of
improvement in information technology and other
technologies when they think of the future for
transportation
 In the end, sustainability is all about designing systems
that use less resources and provide overall benefits to
their users
 Rapidly improving technologies can help do this

Implementation Requires Better
Partnerships
 Between local governments, high tech suppliers, local
businesses, and local universities
 Local universities can help cities do planning and
evaluation
 They can also help develop open source software for
Bus GPS, shared bikes, roads dedicated to AVs, and
electric vehicle charging systems
 Privatization also has important role
 Privatize GPS services for buses, charging stations, roads
dedicated to AVs

Session 9 Topics for Write-ups
 Identify all the entrepreneurial opportunities
for one of the following technologies
 Dedicated roads for autonomous vehicles
in Singapore
 Electric vehicles in Singapore

What are Entrepreneurial Opportunities?
 They are not applications!!
 They are products and services that offer potential
revenues to their providers
 Not the same as applications!
 Not just final product or service, but any component,
software, service, or manufacturing equipment that is
needed to commercialize the technology
 Think about vertical disintegration
 Applications should be analyzed in terms of the products
and services that are needed to satisfy the applications
 Different applications may require different types of products
and services
 The more specific you can be, the better your grade

emissions.
Figure 3: Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Standards for Various Countries
Source: ICCT
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/the-future-of-the-electric-car

1 month ago by Mark Kane 59Comments
Lithium-ion battery costs (source: RTCC – Responding to Climate Change)
http://insideevs.com/declining-battery-prices-boost-electric-car-market/

We Can and Are Solving This Problem

Software is eating public
transport, December 2013

And the Services are also Changing and Expanding

Big Data is Also Useful
 Analyze user trip data to better understand actual trips
 Where do their trips start and stop?
 Use this data to do better
 route planning of buses and trains and location of stations
 integration of bus and subway routes
 guide private vehicle trips
 Traffic was reduced by 25% in Stockholm through better data
 IBM helped users better understand traffic patterns
 Data is now available from driving apps such as Automatic” from
Automatic Labs
 Reduce breakdowns through better sensing and pattern analysis
 Seoul claims that it improved its system through better IT and Big
Data http://www.slideshare.net/simrc/seoul-public-transportation?qid=68d590a9-c62f-4c24-9b5f-
236c36c6dda2&v=default&b=&from_search=10
 Singapore is also doing Big Data with public transportation
https://www.techinasia.com/ibm-create-smarter-singapore-starting-transport-system/

Smart Traffic Lights
 More sophisticated algorithms can be used to guide
traffic lights
 Time of day
 Changes when there is an accident
 But challenges
 Traffic hacking is currently very easy
 Friendly hackers have demonstrated problems but most
suppliers choose to ignore problem
 Malicious hackers can shut down cities
 Many US lawmakers don’t want to force private
companies to do anything different

IT and Transportation Systems

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