Why didn’t we foresee the rise of social TV? Social TV is the biggest change in television since it was invented. Audiences are increasingly engaging with television via second screens (laptops, mobiles and tablets) and connected TV systems. This transforms medium and industry and gives social networks key commercial roles in the TV business. The rise of social TV raises a crucial issue for our understanding of forecasting and innovation: Why did we not foresee this major development in television? The Futurescape presentation Social TV, Forecasting and Innovation reveals how 1995 predictions about the future of TV missed social TV and proposes how such blind spots in forecasting can be remedied. The presentation covers Social TV: a synthesis of TV and social networking 1. Transforming the medium of TV 2. A radical shift in power for the TV industry 3. How does social TV power manifest itself? Forecasting and Innovation 4. The future of TV as seen from 1995 5. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 – social TV 6. Why didn’t we anticipate it? 7. Implications for forecasting and innovation For more insights into the future of social media and television, download our white paper How Connected Television Transforms The Business of TV (adapted from Futurescape’s strategy report, Social TV).

1. Social TV, Forecasting and Innovation Why didn’t we foresee the rise of social TV? Colin Donald Director www.futurescape.tv

3. 1. Social TV – transforming the medium of television

27. 2. Social TV – a radical shift in power for the TV industry

28. Two-screen viewing and Internet TVs give social activity considerable influence over the television industry

29. Social activity gives more power to the companies facilitating it

31. Facebook and Twitter are now major players in global television

32. Without making a single programme

33. Without broadcasting a single TV channel

35. 3. How does social TV power manifest itself?

47. Television can benefit from social networks

48. However…

49. Facebook CTO predicts Social networks will disrupt media – just like gaming

51. Facebook CTO predicts “ We haven't seen tons of other industries as impacted as games by Facebook, and we think that the next big change is seeing the next few industries being disrupted by social platforms in the same way gaming has been.” “ It's probably going to be orientated around media or news, because they are so social. When you watch a television show with your friend, it's such an engaging social activity.” BBC interview with Facebook CTO Bret Taylor, 10 February 2011

52. Facebook and Twitter can compete for ad revenue, too

53. With socially-targeted advertising

54. Adidas World Cup video ad

55. Why did we not foresee this social TV revolution in television?

56. And what does this mean for forecasting and innovation?

57. Forecasting and Innovation

58. 4. The future of TV as seen from 1995

72. 5. What we didn’t foresee in 1995 – social TV

79. 6. Why didn’t we anticipate it?

94. 7. Implications for forecasting and innovation

95. How can we generalise from the experience of forecasting the future of TV?