GIC continues to fulfil its mission to preserve and enhance the long-term international purchasing power of the foreign reserves placed under its management. Over 20 years up to 31 March 2019, the GIC Portfolio’s annualised real rate of return was 3.4% per year. This means the international purchasing power of the reserves has nearly doubled between April 1999 and March 2019.
2. S T E A D Y L O N G - T E R M R E T U R N S
L O O K I N G A H E A D ,
Steady long-term returns above global inflation on Singapore’s
foreign reserves, despite the uncertain investment environment.
2
We maintain a cautious portfolio stance, while proactively
seeking attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward.
3. CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
GIC’S MANDATE
To preserve and enhance the long-term international purchasing power
of the reserves placed under our management.
Primary metric to
evaluate investment
performance is the
rolling 20-year
real rate of return
Seek to
achieve good
absolute real returns
over 20 years,
within the Client’s
risk parameters
Long-term performance
assessed on a
total portfolio basis,
alongside the risk taken
to achieve returns
PRIMARY PERFORMANCE METRIC
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
3
4. Annualised real rate of return was 3.4% per year,
over 20 years ending 31 March 2019.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year ended 31 March
%
This means the
international
purchasing power of
the reserves has
nearly doubled
between April 1999
and March 2019.
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
4
5. Our annualised 20-year real return is the average time-weighted return of
our total portfolio over that period. It is a rolling return.
Exceptionally high returns from the late 1990s tech bubble are dropping out
of the 20-year window, while the post-tech bubble declines remain.
Annualised 20-year
return in 2019 covers
2000 to 2019.
ROLLING 20-YEAR RETURN
Illustration of a Portfolio’s Rolling 20-Year Return
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
5
7. Nominal Annualised Return & Volatility of the GIC Portfolio (in USD, for periods ending 31 Mar 2019)
20-Year
10-Year
5-Year
Time Period
8.9%
8.4%
6.2%
Nominal Return Volatility
While the GIC Portfolio is constructed to deliver good 20-year real returns as its primary
metric, we also monitor its ongoing intermediate investment performance.
THE GIC PORTFOLIO
5.5%
8.6%
4.9%
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
7
8. Developed Market Equities
Emerging Market Equities
Nominal Bonds & Cash
Inflation-linked Bonds
Real Estate
Private Equity
Asset Mix
19
18
39
5
7
12
31 Mar 2019 (%) 31 Mar 2018 (%)
23
17
37
5
7
11
The GIC Portfolio is a well-diversified portfolio of growth and defensive assets. The asset mix
reflects GIC’s cautious stance in the highly uncertain environment.
ASSET MIX
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
8
9. Geographical Mix of the GIC Portfolio, as at 31 March 2019
There is no top-down geographical allocation. The geographical distribution of the GIC
Portfolio is fluid and depends primarily on market capacity, economic cycles, and investment
opportunities.
GEOGRAPHICAL MIX
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
9
10. GIC’s
long-term
performance
reflects
three main factors
DYN A MIC S OF T H E
GLOBA L EC ON OMY
P ERF ORMAN C E
OF ASSET
C LASSES
P ERF ORMAN C E OF
SKILL - BASED
STRATEGIES
Cautious
Stance
Proactive
Alpha
Challenging, Uncertain
Environment
10
11. Today’s investment landscape continues to point to
low and volatile returns in the future.
Skewed to
the downside
A highly uncertain environment
High risk asset valuations
Slowing global growth
“Lower for longer” rate path
High political & policy uncertainties
Weak market fundamentals
Persistent structural tensions
Structural
reform
De-globalisation/
protracted trade tension
Secular
stagnation
Upside
productivity
shock
Constrained
policy space
Disorderly unwind
of high debt
LOOKING AHEAD
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
11
A wide range
of possible
outcomes
12. The GIC Portfolio is constructed to harvest different risk premiums over the long run, and
remain resilient across a broad range of conditions. We believe in diversification across
multiple dimensions, such as:
Prepare, not predict
Diversification across
asset classes,
in a mix of growth and
defensive assets
Diversification
across
sectors
Diversification across
geographies,
with investments in
over 40 countries
Diversification
across
investment
partners
GIC remains cautious in this
challenging, uncertain environment.
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
LOOKING AHEAD – CAUTIOUS STANCE
UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
12
13. Long-term price discipline
Our long investment horizon empowers us to maintain strong price discipline. We are
careful not to overpay for assets, and reduce exposure during interim periods when the
risk-reward trade-off is less favourable.
GIC remains cautious in this
challenging, uncertain environment.
The GIC Portfolio is constructed to harvest different risk premiums over the long run, and
remain resilient across a broad range of conditions. We believe in diversification across
multiple dimensions.
Prepare, not predict
LOOKING AHEAD – CAUTIOUS STANCE
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
13
14. We continue to proactively seek attractive alpha
opportunities with good risk-reward.
LOOKING AHEAD – PROACTIVE ALPHA
Pick our spots: We apply our long-term perspective, cross-asset capabilities and global
network to add value through skill-based “alpha” strategies.
PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE
14
Each active strategy must deliver a return above its cost of capital, to ensure potential
for greater returns without additional systemic risk to the portfolio.
In this uncertain environment, we actively re-examine and replace historical assumptions;
and adjust mindsets and investment assumptions in underwriting businesses.
We also stand ready to take advantage of potential dislocations, as well as work with
our partners to create new opportunities.
15. We continue to proactively seek attractive alpha
opportunities with good risk-reward,
supported by our capacity to invest across asset classes and develop a range of
approaches (such as co-investments, direct, external funds).
EXAMP LES OF REC EN T IN VESTMEN TS
LOOKING AHEAD – PROACTIVE ALPHA
PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE
15
Provenance Land
Seoul CBD
office tower China fund
JV for six hyperscale
data centres in Europe
Shanghai
twin towers
16. A S I A ’ S G R O W I N G I M P O R T A N C E
I N T H E G L O B A L E C O N O M Y
A N D F I N A N C I A L M A R K E T S
GIC has been an early & steady investor in Asia, and
continues to take a constructive view on Asia’s long-term future.
16
17. Asia’s economic footprint has been growing significantly.
ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES
ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA
17
Asia’s share of global economy in purchasing power parity terms
Asia’s share (excl. Japan) of global GDP has risen
from around 10% in 1980 to 36% today.
Asia’s contribution to global growth
Asia accounted for approximately half of global
growth last year.
While exports to the rest of the world remain a key driver, GIC has observed change within the region:
increasing reliance on domestic and regional growth sources, growth of equity, bond and foreign
exchange markets, and valuable lessons learnt from the Asian Financial Crisis.
18. GR OWT H T H EMES
While Asia’s future growth may be slower as economies mature and populations age, it will
still, in aggregate, likely outpace that of developed and emerging economies outside of Asia.
ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES
ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA
Dynamism
of Asia’s
people and
businesses
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
C HALLEN GES
Geopolitical tensions,
such as growing trade
& business restrictions
Structural
reforms, which
must continue
Disruption
from new
technologies
Labour, natural resource
and environmental
constraints
18
Improvements
in
institutions
Room for
urbanisation &
middle-class
growth in
emerging Asia
Continued
investments in
infrastructure
and human
capital
Deeper
regional
integration,
coupled with
globalisation
Attitudes to
globalisation
and
openness
Will Asia’s rise continue?
19. • GIC has been committed to
Asia’s growth story for several
decades - starting in the
1980s in Japan, and 1990s
in emerging Asia.
• We have provided stable
capital, across all asset
classes to markets in Asia,
through the cycles.
• Our presence in Asia’s
key financial cities
enhance our
on-the-ground expertise and
networks.
ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES
ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA
19
Finding alpha in Asia
GIC’s global offices
Seoul
Beijing
Shanghai
Mumbai
Tokyo
Singapore
20. S T E A D Y L O N G - T E R M R E T U R N S
L O O K I N G A H E A D ,
Steady long-term returns above global inflation on Singapore’s
foreign reserves, despite the uncertain investment environment.
20
We maintain a cautious portfolio stance, while proactively
seeking attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward.