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G I C R E P O R T 2 0 1 8 / 1 9
S T E A D Y L O N G - T E R M R E T U R N S
L O O K I N G A H E A D ,
Steady long-term returns above global inflation on Singapore’s
foreign reserves, despite the uncertain investment environment.
2
We maintain a cautious portfolio stance, while proactively
seeking attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward.
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
GIC’S MANDATE
To preserve and enhance the long-term international purchasing power
of the reserves placed under our management.
Primary metric to
evaluate investment
performance is the
rolling 20-year
real rate of return
Seek to
achieve good
absolute real returns
over 20 years,
within the Client’s
risk parameters
Long-term performance
assessed on a
total portfolio basis,
alongside the risk taken
to achieve returns
PRIMARY PERFORMANCE METRIC
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
3
Annualised real rate of return was 3.4% per year,
over 20 years ending 31 March 2019.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Year ended 31 March
%
This means the
international
purchasing power of
the reserves has
nearly doubled
between April 1999
and March 2019.
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
4
Our annualised 20-year real return is the average time-weighted return of
our total portfolio over that period. It is a rolling return.
Exceptionally high returns from the late 1990s tech bubble are dropping out
of the 20-year window, while the post-tech bubble declines remain.
Annualised 20-year
return in 2019 covers
2000 to 2019.
ROLLING 20-YEAR RETURN
Illustration of a Portfolio’s Rolling 20-Year Return
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
5
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
1900
1901
1903
1905
1907
1908
1910
1912
1914
1915
1917
1919
1921
1922
1924
1926
1928
1929
1931
1933
1935
1936
1938
1940
1942
1943
1945
1947
1949
1950
1952
1954
1956
1957
1959
1961
1963
1964
1966
1968
1970
1971
1973
1975
1977
1978
1980
1982
1984
1985
1987
1989
1991
1992
1994
1996
1998
1999
2001
2003
2005
2006
2008
2010
2012
2013
2015
2017
2019
Rolling 20-Year Real Return of a US 65% stocks/35% bonds portfolio, from 1900 to 2019
5.07%
Average
20-year
return
Investment returns are inherently cyclical and volatile,
even over 20-year periods.
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
6
Nominal Annualised Return & Volatility of the GIC Portfolio (in USD, for periods ending 31 Mar 2019)
20-Year
10-Year
5-Year
Time Period
8.9%
8.4%
6.2%
Nominal Return Volatility
While the GIC Portfolio is constructed to deliver good 20-year real returns as its primary
metric, we also monitor its ongoing intermediate investment performance.
THE GIC PORTFOLIO
5.5%
8.6%
4.9%
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
7
Developed Market Equities
Emerging Market Equities
Nominal Bonds & Cash
Inflation-linked Bonds
Real Estate
Private Equity
Asset Mix
19
18
39
5
7
12
31 Mar 2019 (%) 31 Mar 2018 (%)
23
17
37
5
7
11
The GIC Portfolio is a well-diversified portfolio of growth and defensive assets. The asset mix
reflects GIC’s cautious stance in the highly uncertain environment.
ASSET MIX
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
8
Geographical Mix of the GIC Portfolio, as at 31 March 2019
There is no top-down geographical allocation. The geographical distribution of the GIC
Portfolio is fluid and depends primarily on market capacity, economic cycles, and investment
opportunities.
GEOGRAPHICAL MIX
INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
9
GIC’s
long-term
performance
reflects
three main factors
DYN A MIC S OF T H E
GLOBA L EC ON OMY
P ERF ORMAN C E
OF ASSET
C LASSES
P ERF ORMAN C E OF
SKILL - BASED
STRATEGIES
Cautious
Stance
Proactive
Alpha
Challenging, Uncertain
Environment
10
Today’s investment landscape continues to point to
low and volatile returns in the future.
Skewed to
the downside
A highly uncertain environment
High risk asset valuations
Slowing global growth
“Lower for longer” rate path
High political & policy uncertainties
Weak market fundamentals
Persistent structural tensions
Structural
reform
De-globalisation/
protracted trade tension
Secular
stagnation
Upside
productivity
shock
Constrained
policy space
Disorderly unwind
of high debt
LOOKING AHEAD
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
11
A wide range
of possible
outcomes
The GIC Portfolio is constructed to harvest different risk premiums over the long run, and
remain resilient across a broad range of conditions. We believe in diversification across
multiple dimensions, such as:
Prepare, not predict
Diversification across
asset classes,
in a mix of growth and
defensive assets
Diversification
across
sectors
Diversification across
geographies,
with investments in
over 40 countries
Diversification
across
investment
partners
GIC remains cautious in this
challenging, uncertain environment.
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
LOOKING AHEAD – CAUTIOUS STANCE
UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
12
Long-term price discipline
Our long investment horizon empowers us to maintain strong price discipline. We are
careful not to overpay for assets, and reduce exposure during interim periods when the
risk-reward trade-off is less favourable.
GIC remains cautious in this
challenging, uncertain environment.
The GIC Portfolio is constructed to harvest different risk premiums over the long run, and
remain resilient across a broad range of conditions. We believe in diversification across
multiple dimensions.
Prepare, not predict
LOOKING AHEAD – CAUTIOUS STANCE
CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT
13
We continue to proactively seek attractive alpha
opportunities with good risk-reward.
LOOKING AHEAD – PROACTIVE ALPHA
Pick our spots: We apply our long-term perspective, cross-asset capabilities and global
network to add value through skill-based “alpha” strategies.
PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE
14
Each active strategy must deliver a return above its cost of capital, to ensure potential
for greater returns without additional systemic risk to the portfolio.
In this uncertain environment, we actively re-examine and replace historical assumptions;
and adjust mindsets and investment assumptions in underwriting businesses.
We also stand ready to take advantage of potential dislocations, as well as work with
our partners to create new opportunities.
We continue to proactively seek attractive alpha
opportunities with good risk-reward,
supported by our capacity to invest across asset classes and develop a range of
approaches (such as co-investments, direct, external funds).
EXAMP LES OF REC EN T IN VESTMEN TS
LOOKING AHEAD – PROACTIVE ALPHA
PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE
15
Provenance Land
Seoul CBD
office tower China fund
JV for six hyperscale
data centres in Europe
Shanghai
twin towers
A S I A ’ S G R O W I N G I M P O R T A N C E
I N T H E G L O B A L E C O N O M Y
A N D F I N A N C I A L M A R K E T S
GIC has been an early & steady investor in Asia, and
continues to take a constructive view on Asia’s long-term future.
16
Asia’s economic footprint has been growing significantly.
ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES
ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA
17
Asia’s share of global economy in purchasing power parity terms
Asia’s share (excl. Japan) of global GDP has risen
from around 10% in 1980 to 36% today.
Asia’s contribution to global growth
Asia accounted for approximately half of global
growth last year.
While exports to the rest of the world remain a key driver, GIC has observed change within the region:
increasing reliance on domestic and regional growth sources, growth of equity, bond and foreign
exchange markets, and valuable lessons learnt from the Asian Financial Crisis.
GR OWT H T H EMES
While Asia’s future growth may be slower as economies mature and populations age, it will
still, in aggregate, likely outpace that of developed and emerging economies outside of Asia.
ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES
ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA
Dynamism
of Asia’s
people and
businesses
STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS
C HALLEN GES
Geopolitical tensions,
such as growing trade
& business restrictions
Structural
reforms, which
must continue
Disruption
from new
technologies
Labour, natural resource
and environmental
constraints
18
Improvements
in
institutions
Room for
urbanisation &
middle-class
growth in
emerging Asia
Continued
investments in
infrastructure
and human
capital
Deeper
regional
integration,
coupled with
globalisation
Attitudes to
globalisation
and
openness
Will Asia’s rise continue?
• GIC has been committed to
Asia’s growth story for several
decades - starting in the
1980s in Japan, and 1990s
in emerging Asia.
• We have provided stable
capital, across all asset
classes to markets in Asia,
through the cycles.
• Our presence in Asia’s
key financial cities
enhance our
on-the-ground expertise and
networks.
ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES
ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA
19
Finding alpha in Asia
GIC’s global offices
Seoul
Beijing
Shanghai
Mumbai
Tokyo
Singapore
S T E A D Y L O N G - T E R M R E T U R N S
L O O K I N G A H E A D ,
Steady long-term returns above global inflation on Singapore’s
foreign reserves, despite the uncertain investment environment.
20
We maintain a cautious portfolio stance, while proactively
seeking attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward.
T H A N K Y O U

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Summary of GIC Report 2018/2019

  • 1. G I C R E P O R T 2 0 1 8 / 1 9
  • 2. S T E A D Y L O N G - T E R M R E T U R N S L O O K I N G A H E A D , Steady long-term returns above global inflation on Singapore’s foreign reserves, despite the uncertain investment environment. 2 We maintain a cautious portfolio stance, while proactively seeking attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward.
  • 3. CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT GIC’S MANDATE To preserve and enhance the long-term international purchasing power of the reserves placed under our management. Primary metric to evaluate investment performance is the rolling 20-year real rate of return Seek to achieve good absolute real returns over 20 years, within the Client’s risk parameters Long-term performance assessed on a total portfolio basis, alongside the risk taken to achieve returns PRIMARY PERFORMANCE METRIC STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS 3
  • 4. Annualised real rate of return was 3.4% per year, over 20 years ending 31 March 2019. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Year ended 31 March % This means the international purchasing power of the reserves has nearly doubled between April 1999 and March 2019. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT 4
  • 5. Our annualised 20-year real return is the average time-weighted return of our total portfolio over that period. It is a rolling return. Exceptionally high returns from the late 1990s tech bubble are dropping out of the 20-year window, while the post-tech bubble declines remain. Annualised 20-year return in 2019 covers 2000 to 2019. ROLLING 20-YEAR RETURN Illustration of a Portfolio’s Rolling 20-Year Return CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS 5
  • 6. -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 1900 1901 1903 1905 1907 1908 1910 1912 1914 1915 1917 1919 1921 1922 1924 1926 1928 1929 1931 1933 1935 1936 1938 1940 1942 1943 1945 1947 1949 1950 1952 1954 1956 1957 1959 1961 1963 1964 1966 1968 1970 1971 1973 1975 1977 1978 1980 1982 1984 1985 1987 1989 1991 1992 1994 1996 1998 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006 2008 2010 2012 2013 2015 2017 2019 Rolling 20-Year Real Return of a US 65% stocks/35% bonds portfolio, from 1900 to 2019 5.07% Average 20-year return Investment returns are inherently cyclical and volatile, even over 20-year periods. INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS 6
  • 7. Nominal Annualised Return & Volatility of the GIC Portfolio (in USD, for periods ending 31 Mar 2019) 20-Year 10-Year 5-Year Time Period 8.9% 8.4% 6.2% Nominal Return Volatility While the GIC Portfolio is constructed to deliver good 20-year real returns as its primary metric, we also monitor its ongoing intermediate investment performance. THE GIC PORTFOLIO 5.5% 8.6% 4.9% INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS 7
  • 8. Developed Market Equities Emerging Market Equities Nominal Bonds & Cash Inflation-linked Bonds Real Estate Private Equity Asset Mix 19 18 39 5 7 12 31 Mar 2019 (%) 31 Mar 2018 (%) 23 17 37 5 7 11 The GIC Portfolio is a well-diversified portfolio of growth and defensive assets. The asset mix reflects GIC’s cautious stance in the highly uncertain environment. ASSET MIX INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS 8
  • 9. Geographical Mix of the GIC Portfolio, as at 31 March 2019 There is no top-down geographical allocation. The geographical distribution of the GIC Portfolio is fluid and depends primarily on market capacity, economic cycles, and investment opportunities. GEOGRAPHICAL MIX INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE – STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS 9
  • 10. GIC’s long-term performance reflects three main factors DYN A MIC S OF T H E GLOBA L EC ON OMY P ERF ORMAN C E OF ASSET C LASSES P ERF ORMAN C E OF SKILL - BASED STRATEGIES Cautious Stance Proactive Alpha Challenging, Uncertain Environment 10
  • 11. Today’s investment landscape continues to point to low and volatile returns in the future. Skewed to the downside A highly uncertain environment High risk asset valuations Slowing global growth “Lower for longer” rate path High political & policy uncertainties Weak market fundamentals Persistent structural tensions Structural reform De-globalisation/ protracted trade tension Secular stagnation Upside productivity shock Constrained policy space Disorderly unwind of high debt LOOKING AHEAD CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTSTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS 11 A wide range of possible outcomes
  • 12. The GIC Portfolio is constructed to harvest different risk premiums over the long run, and remain resilient across a broad range of conditions. We believe in diversification across multiple dimensions, such as: Prepare, not predict Diversification across asset classes, in a mix of growth and defensive assets Diversification across sectors Diversification across geographies, with investments in over 40 countries Diversification across investment partners GIC remains cautious in this challenging, uncertain environment. CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS LOOKING AHEAD – CAUTIOUS STANCE UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT 12
  • 13. Long-term price discipline Our long investment horizon empowers us to maintain strong price discipline. We are careful not to overpay for assets, and reduce exposure during interim periods when the risk-reward trade-off is less favourable. GIC remains cautious in this challenging, uncertain environment. The GIC Portfolio is constructed to harvest different risk premiums over the long run, and remain resilient across a broad range of conditions. We believe in diversification across multiple dimensions. Prepare, not predict LOOKING AHEAD – CAUTIOUS STANCE CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT 13
  • 14. We continue to proactively seek attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward. LOOKING AHEAD – PROACTIVE ALPHA Pick our spots: We apply our long-term perspective, cross-asset capabilities and global network to add value through skill-based “alpha” strategies. PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE 14 Each active strategy must deliver a return above its cost of capital, to ensure potential for greater returns without additional systemic risk to the portfolio. In this uncertain environment, we actively re-examine and replace historical assumptions; and adjust mindsets and investment assumptions in underwriting businesses. We also stand ready to take advantage of potential dislocations, as well as work with our partners to create new opportunities.
  • 15. We continue to proactively seek attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward, supported by our capacity to invest across asset classes and develop a range of approaches (such as co-investments, direct, external funds). EXAMP LES OF REC EN T IN VESTMEN TS LOOKING AHEAD – PROACTIVE ALPHA PROACTIVE ALPHA ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE 15 Provenance Land Seoul CBD office tower China fund JV for six hyperscale data centres in Europe Shanghai twin towers
  • 16. A S I A ’ S G R O W I N G I M P O R T A N C E I N T H E G L O B A L E C O N O M Y A N D F I N A N C I A L M A R K E T S GIC has been an early & steady investor in Asia, and continues to take a constructive view on Asia’s long-term future. 16
  • 17. Asia’s economic footprint has been growing significantly. ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA 17 Asia’s share of global economy in purchasing power parity terms Asia’s share (excl. Japan) of global GDP has risen from around 10% in 1980 to 36% today. Asia’s contribution to global growth Asia accounted for approximately half of global growth last year. While exports to the rest of the world remain a key driver, GIC has observed change within the region: increasing reliance on domestic and regional growth sources, growth of equity, bond and foreign exchange markets, and valuable lessons learnt from the Asian Financial Crisis.
  • 18. GR OWT H T H EMES While Asia’s future growth may be slower as economies mature and populations age, it will still, in aggregate, likely outpace that of developed and emerging economies outside of Asia. ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES ASIAUNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA Dynamism of Asia’s people and businesses STEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS C HALLEN GES Geopolitical tensions, such as growing trade & business restrictions Structural reforms, which must continue Disruption from new technologies Labour, natural resource and environmental constraints 18 Improvements in institutions Room for urbanisation & middle-class growth in emerging Asia Continued investments in infrastructure and human capital Deeper regional integration, coupled with globalisation Attitudes to globalisation and openness Will Asia’s rise continue?
  • 19. • GIC has been committed to Asia’s growth story for several decades - starting in the 1980s in Japan, and 1990s in emerging Asia. • We have provided stable capital, across all asset classes to markets in Asia, through the cycles. • Our presence in Asia’s key financial cities enhance our on-the-ground expertise and networks. ASIA – A CONSTELLATION OF DYNAMIC, OPEN ECONOMIES ASIASTEADY LONG-TERM RETURNS UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENT CAUTIOUS STANCE PROACTIVE ALPHA 19 Finding alpha in Asia GIC’s global offices Seoul Beijing Shanghai Mumbai Tokyo Singapore
  • 20. S T E A D Y L O N G - T E R M R E T U R N S L O O K I N G A H E A D , Steady long-term returns above global inflation on Singapore’s foreign reserves, despite the uncertain investment environment. 20 We maintain a cautious portfolio stance, while proactively seeking attractive alpha opportunities with good risk-reward.
  • 21. T H A N K Y O U