From grid infrastructure analytics to consumer analytics, the true power of data is starting to be realized. Greentech Media Co-Founder and President, Rick Thompson, sets the stage for the days presentations and panels.
3. Cumulatively, 57 million smart meters will have been deployed in the United States in the next two years
US AMI Penetration 2015
4. Substation Automation System
AMI
Workforce Management
RTU Upgrades
GIS Integration
OMS Upgrade
Distribution Automation
Smart Homes
PMUs
Time
Source: EPRI, GTM Research
You Are Here
AnnualRateofDataIntake(TB)
“Due to economies of
scale, the faster and
cheaper the devices
become, the faster and
cheaper data creation
itself becomes. This
creates something of a
positive feedback loop
which is hurtling us
quickly toward the
‘internet of things’”
GTM Analyst Note
Utility Data Generation Curve
5. “GTM Research
forecasts cumulative
global spending on
smart-grid-related
analytics to top $20
billion between the
years 2013-2020, with
an annual spend of
$3.98 billion globally in
the year 2020. We
estimate, the achieved
return on this
investment will exceed
$120 billion globally
over the same period”
$1.11
$1.57
$1.95
$2.28
$2.60
$2.98
$3.60
$3.98
$0
$1
$1
$2
$2
$3
$3
$4
$4
$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
AnnualSpending(Billions)
CumulativeSpending(Billions)
China Europe North America
Asia-Pacific Latin America
CAGR 17 %
Soft Grid Regional Forecast 2013 - 2020
GTM Analyst Note
Global Utility Analytics Spending 2013 - 2020
7. • Grid Optimization and Operational
Intelligence
• Asset Management Analytics
• Crisis Management Analytics
• DMS Analytics
• Outage Management Analytics/Fault
• Detection and Correction
• Weather/Location data
• Mobile Workforce Management
• Energy Theft
Soft Grid investment momentum globally is beginning to focus on some key markets. Some
segments of the analytics market will grow quicker than others due to their immediate application.
Enterprise
Analytics
Grid
Analytics
Consumer
Analytics
• Behavioral Analytics
• Tiered Pricing -
Trading, Selling Megawatts
(DR)
• Building Energy
Management
• Power Analytics (Load Flow)
• Social Media Data
Integration
• DG/EV/Microgrid Analytics
2
1
3
• Moving from Traditional, Historical Analytics to
Real-Time Predictive Analytics
• Complete Situational Awareness
• Business Intelligence
• Trading with “live look” at the Grid
• Simulation/Visualization
$8.7b
$4.2b
$7.1b
Soft Grid
Investment
Portfolio
$20b Cumulative Market by 2020
“Many of these analytics
and/or capabilities will rely on
the same data, such that
sound enterprise IT
architecture design will play a
vital role in their success”
GTM Analyst Note
All $ amounts represent cumulative market value by 2020
Investing in Soft Grid: Applications
8. GRID ANALYTICS
Rank Application Key Features
Implementation
Complexity
Maturity
Primary
Value Stream
Key
Markets
1
Outage
Management
More efficient
detection and
restoration of
service outages
Low High
Avoided
Operational
Costs
North
America
2
Voltage
Optimization
Dynamically
adjusting voltages
via closed-loop
feedback
Medium Medium
Recovered
Costs
Universal
3
Asset
Management
Aggregation of
metering endpoints
to a common asset
(e.g., secondary
transformers)
Medium to high
depending on data
utilization
Medium
Avoided
Capital Costs
Universal
High-Value Applications: Grid Analytics
9. CONSUMER ANALYTICS
Rank Application Key Features
Implementatio
n Complexity
Maturity
Primary
Value
Stream
Key Markets
1
Revenue
Protection
Ability to compare
and correlate
usage patterns
with other similar
customer profiles
to detect unbilled
consumption
Variable,
depending on
level of theft
sophistication
Medium
Cost
Recovery
Canada,
Latin
America,
India
2
Load
Forecasting
Creating individual
consumption
profiles for each
consumer
Medium Medium
Avoided
Costs
Germany,
Australia,
Japan,
United States
3
Customer
Segmentation
Fusion of customer
consumption data
with secondary
data sources such
as housing data,
demographic data,
and lifestyle
information
Medium Medium
Avoided
Costs
Markets with
retail access
(e.g.. most of
Europe,
Texas)
High-Value Applications: Consumer Analytics
10. Source: GTM, SAS High-Performance Analytics for the Smart Grid
Reliability is the Leading Driver
12. An Undeniable Inflection Point
• 2/3rds of total US distributed PV deployed in the last 2.5 years alone
• By 2016 there will be a new PV installation nearly every minute
“If FERC does not ensure the grid is ready to integrate the growing marketplace
demand for distributed solar and other distributed resources, we are going to have
problems with grid reliability and overall grid costs.” – Jon Wellinghoff, August 2013
13. A Next-Generation Energy System
“Grid Edge comprises the technologies, solutions and business
models advancing the transition towards a
decentralized, distributed and transactive electric grid.” –GTM
Research
AMI bit slower growth but a larger overall market.Analytics is growing faster but a smaller overall market.
GTM Research recently conducted a survey of top utility executives examining investment drivers in analytics. What we found is that improving the reliability, quality and efficiency of the distribution networks is paramount for executives currently.
There are a few key trends to note in. In North America, we’re expecting to surpass 58 million meters by the end of the year. In the U.S. specifically, most large investor-owned utilities have already deployed, are in the process of deploying, or are awaiting regulatory approval with the notable exception of Con Edison in the State of New York. Con Edison is an interesting example of a utility which received the maximum stimulus funding but choose to allocate the funding to distribution upgrades. In Canada, the province of Ontario has deployed rough 4.5 million smart meters and under the Ontario Green Energy Act via more than 90 independent distribution companies. Looking to the West Coast of Canada, BC Hydro and Fortis BC are both nearing completion.In Europe, the story is a bit more interesting. Under the 20-20-20 initiatives, EU members states were required to determine the cost-effectiveness on an individual basis while other member states like Italy moved forward with their own deployments. The most recent news out of Europe has been the announcement of “preferred” vendors in the U.K. as well as Germany’s decision to pursue a roll out on a case by case basis. Germany’s market is complicated due to inherent fragmentation created by being served by over 500 DSOs. In addition, ERDF, the distribution arm of France received approval by the French Prime Minister to mover forward with a staged deployment of 3.5 million meters which will eventually expand into 35million meters. In Latin America, in 2012, the Brazilian regulator ruled that it would not be mandatory to deploy smart meters – outside of new customers. In addition, the regulator ruled that the distributors would bear the costs of furnishing a basic time of use meter.The biggest news out of APAC was TEPCO’s announcement that they had selected Landis+Gyr to provide a combination of cellular, power line carrier, and RF mesh to be deployed to 27 million customers over 10 years. In addition, the deployment will include Landis+Gyr’s meter data management system which it acquired through Ecologic Analytics in 2011. Just a few notes on China – State Grid, China’s national power company stated that it expects to install 300 million meters by 2020. We tend to think these estimates are pretty optimistic. In addition, the tender process is incredibly fragmented and many contracts have been awarded to domestic vendors.