This presentation to the World Future Studies Federation in Bucharest in June tackles the issue of how futurists can be effective in helping organisations anticipate and prepare for the future. Based on the work published in "Here be Dragons" and using the work of the European Forum on Forward Looking Activities in developing the ability of the European Commission to anticipate the future, it scopes some of the hurdles and suggests ways of tackling them.

1. Robust decisions in uncertain times
WFSF: 21st World Conference
8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1
“Here be Dragons”
Connecting a changing world to strategic
decisions
Gill Ringland
CEO & Fellow, SAMI Consulting
June 2013

2. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Here be dragons ------
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©2009 Ringland

3. Robust decisions in uncertain times
WEF Global Risks 2011
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1000
100
PerceivedimpactUSBN$
Perceived likelihood in next 10 years

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Energy pressures
400
300
200
100
0
Gigajoules per capita
0 10 20 30 40
GDP per capita
USA
Europe, Japan, Korea
China, India

5. Robust decisions in uncertain times
The logarithm of the ratio of the current situation to the probable
long term sustainable limit: these have been breached already
0
Carbon dioxide
Species extinction rate
Nitrogen cycle
Phosphorus cycle
Stratospheric
ozone depletion
Ocean acidification
Freshwater use
Change in land use
Sustainable limit
Environmental pressures
©Beyond Crisis, Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow, John Wiley 2010
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6. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Effective at renewal ?
Efficiency
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Asset allocation
Traditional hierarchy
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Ad hoc
activities,
lobbying etc
Present and future operating environment
Organisations facing change

7. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Role of futurists ?
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Organisation
knows the answer doesn’t know the answer
Individual
Knowstheanswerdoesn’tknowtheanswer

8. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Futures Council, TCBE
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Consultant Line manager

9. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Line manager, Corporate Strategist Scenarios Future
Engineer manager thinker
Early indicators Portfolio Ideas & systems Alternate “843” trends
Decisions, management Planning worlds interconnected
Timelines Options
Decisions
Thinking styles
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Foxes and hedgehogs
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11. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Effective at renewal,
foxes
Efficiency, hedgehogs
Asset allocation
Traditional hierarchy
©2009 Lustig, Ringland, Sparrow
Planning
and ensuring
renewal
machinery
works
Present and future operating environment
Organisations and change

12. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Applying to the EC
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©2009 Ringland
• EFFLA (European Forum on Forward Looking
Activities) set up to
– aggregate existing forward looking studies and data
– and involve public and private stakeholders to
improve the evidence base of future (R&I) policies
• Advisory Board to DG RTD, set up in September
2011
• Adopted a strategy cycle from TEKES in Finland
as the basis for aligning to DG RTD cycle

13. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Necessary elements of the future EU strategic process
Foresight (I) > Insight (II) > Strategy (III) > Action (IV)

14. Robust decisions in uncertain times
EC DG RTD context
• Strategic process:
– Strategic Intelligence – cast wide
– Stronger systematic sense-making using SI data – role of
experts and individuals
– Sense making strong link to Selecting priorities
– Political dynamics & Member States important in Selecting
Priorities
• “Hub”
– NODE (close to decision-makers) to give access and be an
anchor for effectiveness;
– also to act as an INTERFACE to translate issues and engage at
the right time
– NETWORK to provide a broad range of outside sources,
antennas across EU and beyond; increasingly involves semi-
automated scanning

15. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Horizon scanning
SS
ANZ
HSN
Meta AJASN
RAHS
Risk Assessment
& Horizon
Scanning
SS
Sigma
Scan
ANZ
HSN
Aus & NZ
Horizon
Scanning
Network
Meta
Metafore/
SemaDyson
AJASN
Aus Joint
Agencies
scanning
Network
RAHS iK
iKNow
iK

16. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Sense making steps
• Need for sponsor – what question are we trying
to answer?
– Exploring different visions
– Analysing trends
– Analysing drivers
– Creating different scenarios
– Building the strategy options
– Selection of priorities
• Links from Strategic Intelligence and to Selecting
Priorities
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How to integrate the process into real life?
Example – preparing H2030
Activity 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Process management
Phase I
Strategic intelligence
Phase II
Sense-making
Phase III
Selecting priorities
Phase IV
Implementation
Start Mid-term evaluation of H2020
Involves input
from
knowledge
stakeholders
and MS
The process is NOT linear but cyclic with constant feedback (Ref. Slide No 3).
Involves MS
and
Commission.
Involves
European
Parliament and
Commission.
Involves
Council.
Involves MS and
Commission.

18. Robust decisions in uncertain times
Thank you!
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