A presentation at WEO Week 19 November 2020, discussing Net-Zero Emission pathways. How much carbon dioxide removal do IEA scenarios need, and how to they compare to IEA? Stream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMiBDUjWpyE&ab_channel=InternationalEnergyAgency

1. Is Carbon Dioxide Removal needed?
Glen Peters (CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Norway)
WEO2020-week: Reaching Net-Zero Emissions (remote, 19/11/2020)

2. Net CO2 emissions (black line) are the sum of residual fossil CO2 emissions and carbon dioxide removal:
Residual emissions: Hard- / costly-to mitigate, Removal to offset residual emissions & temperature overshoot
Source: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA); own calculations
Anatomy of a mitigation scenario

3. It is unclear how much carbon dioxide removal would be needed in IEA mitigation scenarios
Most focus on NZE2050 is the period to 2030 (which is critically very important)
Source: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA); own calculations
Do NZE2050 or SDS need CO2 removal?

4. The IEA Net-Zero Emissions 2050 (NZE2050) scenario is completely consistent with other 1.5°C scenarios
The IEA Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS) is consistent with around 1.6-1.7°C (still aggressive)
Source: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA); IEA WEO (2020); own calculations
…compared to IPCC 1.5°C scenarios

5. Coal, oil, gas, and process emissions do not quite go to zero in the SDS (non-CO2 emissions not shown)
Carbon dioxide removal via Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Direct Air Capture & Storage (DACCS)
Source: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA); IEA WEO (2020); own calculations
Sustainable Development Scenario
Sustainable Development Scenario

6. The Sustainable Development Scenario uses much less Bioenergy with CCS than equivalent scenarios assessed by
the IPCC. What about for net-zero in 2050?
Source: IAMC 1.5°C Scenario Explorer (hosted by IIASA); IEA WEO (2020); own calculations
IEA very conservative on CO2 removal

7. • What does the energy system look like at net-zero (2050)?
• What happens after net-zero, do CO2 emissions go negative?
• What carbon dioxide removal (negative emissions) pathways
does the IEA see as realistic (scale & speed)?
– Afforestation? Non-CO2 emissions?
Some level of CO2 removal is needed…

8. Peters_Glen
cicero.oslo.no
cicerosenterforklimaforskning
glen.peters@cicero.oslo.no
Glen Peters

9. Source: MCC-Berlin
Carbon Dioxide Removal