Una corretta logica di gestione della supply chain non può fare a meno della capacità di comprendere la complessità della domanda di mercato, e un’azienda che dispone di strumenti strategici per analizzare la domanda, ridurre le scorte e migliorare il livello di servizio può aumentare le proprie performance in maniera significativa. Essere in grado di scambiare vicendevolmente le informazioni in azienda è un fattore chiave per rispondere al mercato. Per fare questo è assolutamente prioritario ottenere valori di forecast affidabili in grado di supportare un’efficiente pianificazione, in termini di fabbisogni, produzione e distribuzione. L’elaborazione di un piano della domanda coerente e fattibile richiede una visione globale e condivisa tra le varie funzioni aziendali, la capacità di sfruttare tutte le informazioni disponibili, per arrivare a disporre del cosiddetto “one number” che permetta di basare la pianificazione futura (a breve, medio e lungo termine) con gli stessi valori per sales, marketing, operations ecc. Grazie a tecnologie avanzate di analisi della domanda e piattaforme native integrate per soddisfare i bisogni di chi deve pianificare la supply chain e le attività commerciali, è possibile scambiare idee, condividere numeri in tempo reale e finalmente agire per il bene comune della propria azienda.

1. Bologna, 26 Marzo 2015
ONE NUMBER – UN PIANO DELLA DOMANDA
CONDIVISO E AFFIDABILE GARANTISCE LA
SODDISFAZIONE DEL MERCATO
Francesco Stolfo
Partner - Sales Director ToolsGroup Italy

2. Company Confidential All Rights Reserved2Company Confidential
All Rights Reserved
EUROPE
Amsterdam
Milan
Munich
Barcelona
London
Stockholm
AMERICA
Boston(*)
Ontario
Mexico D.F.
ASIA
Malaysia
India
Japan
MIDDLE EAST
Israel
AFRICA
Cape Town
Our Vision
Accelerating Business Performance through
Market Driven Demand Analytics and Supply
Chain Optimization
Our Mission
To be the leading provider of
“Powerfully Simple” software solutions that
deliver business value in
complex, demand driven environments
Our Approach
Best practices leveraging
quantitative and qualitative data
to deliver predictive demand signals
to enhance the effectiveness of
the planning process
2013 - Winner of
European Supply Chain Excellence Award
Category: Technology
www.supplychainexcellenceawards.com
(*) HQs

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SO99+: our software solution for Planning & Optimization
Supply Chain
distribution intensive industries
CPG
Sales Mktg.
Manufacturing
Comprehensive Statistical Model
ERP/SCP/SCE
Demand
Planning
Demand Modelling
Statistical Forecasting
Promo, media, NPI
Demand Sensing
Demand
Collaboration Hub
Inventory
Optimization
Inventory Modeling
Service Planning
Mix, Stage & Lot Size
Optimization
Multi-Echelon
Replenishment
Planning
Dynamic Min/Max
projected requirements
SC Monitoring & Visibility
Level Loading
VMI
Supply Collaboration Hub
Transportation Plan
Comprehensive Statistical Model
Predictive Demand
Analytics
Market clustering
Segmentation
Trade Promotion
Optimization
Media event and
trend indicators
ROI
Production Planning
and Scheduling
Mill allocation
Finite capacity plan
ATP
Production Scheduling
MES

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Customer References
Consumer Durables
250+ customer businesses in 31 countries
loyalty greater than 95%
Food-CPG
Healthcare | Pharma | Chemical
Fashion & Apparel
Retail & Wholesale
Automotive & Aftermarket
TLC | Steel | Engineering

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ToolsGroup - Sales Inventory & Operation Planning (SIOP approach)

6. Demand Planning
Inventory Planning & Optimization
Replenishment Planning
Company Confidential
All Rights Reserved
The Myth of the ONE NUMBER Planning

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Prologue
S&OP and the ONE NUMBER Planning

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S&OP and The One Number Planning
Metà anni ‘80: Dick C. Ling, consulente della Oliver Wight, fu il
primo ad annunciare un nuovo processo (S&OP)... that would
help companies align their manufacturing operations and
resources planning with the anticipated demand for their
products.
Christopher Turner, collega di Ling, fu tra i primi a definire l’approccio
dei 5 passi tipico del S&OP.

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S&OP and The One Number Planning
• Demand Planning ([...] “combination of actual sales activity and forecast
combined with other forms of market insight” - Steve Hochman of AMR
Research);
• Centralized Demand Planning Meeting (the multiple forecasts for each
product family — often from different regions — are rolled up into a consensus
outlook - the forecast is unconstrained);
• Capacity and Supply Planning (production planners might note that a
certain supplier has been late on shipments, or that the amount of product expected
would mean additional worker overtime);
• Pre-S&OP Meeting (Here, problems and imbalances are identified and
financial implications are considered. Issues that can't be resolved by the manager-
/director-level participants are elevated to the next step);
• Executive S&OP Meeting (The senior executives involved. Typical decisions
include increasing procurement budgets or adjusting production schedules at various
plants — high-cost activities that demand executive sign-off);
S&OP: 5 step process

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S&OP and The One Number Planning
Nei primi anni ‘90 solo il 20% delle aziende che partecipano al
programma di ricerca MIT Supply Chain 2020 avevano tentato di
implementare processi di S&OP. Nel 2007 erano diventate l’80%.
MIT Supply Chain 2020 Program

11. Company Confidential All Rights Reserved11
S&OP and The One Number Planning
• Demand Planning ([...] “combination of actual sales activity and forecast
combined with other forms of market insight” - Steve Hochman of AMR
Research);
• Centralized Demand Planning Meeting (the multiple forecasts for each
product family — often from different regions — are rolled up into a consensus
outlook - the forecast is unconstrained);
• Capacity and Supply Planning (production planners might note that a
certain supplier has been late on shipments, or that the amount of product expected
would mean additional worker overtime);
• Pre-S&OP Meeting (Here, problems and imbalances are identified and
financial implications are considered. Issues that can't be resolved by the manager-
/director-level participants are elevated to the next step);
• Executive S&OP Meeting (The senior executives involved. Typical decisions
include increasing procurement budgets or adjusting production schedules at various
plants — high-cost activities that demand executive sign-off);
S&OP: 5 step process

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One Number Planning
The first step

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The One Number Planning

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Sales & Marketing effects on the Demand Signal
A
B
C
Availabl
e
spending
budget
Growing noise and loss of visibility
Discount
3x2
Point
Noise from competitor promo
activities
What is the
store’s
contribution to
an individual
promotion?

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How to support the Demand Planning

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How to support the Demand Planning
Calculation of the baseline and
support for shaping promotional
uplifts
Via the use of data based on sell-in
revenue/volumes, the filtering of
external factors and the consultation of
all available proprietary and
competitor calendars, the baseline at
customer/product/period level can be
obtained and the relative uplift effect
of the individual phenomenon (both in
the past and in the future).
Baseline Calculation &
Promotion Modelling
A brand new application frontier
for Artificial Intelligence
Machine Learning technology
clusters all past promotion
activities into “like-effect” groups,
and identifies the drivers. On this
basis it is able to identify and
classify all new planned campaigns
in accordance with their
characteristics.
Statistical forecast model at
Product/Market Structure
For every Product / Market
Structure, a robust and accurate
demand baseline is generated.
The baseline is cleansed of every
promotional or external effect.
An accurate baseline is
fundamental to identifying
elements of promotional uplift.

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The One Number Planning:

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The One Number Planning
[…] ToolsGroup customer Granarolo, an Italian dairy products company, uses data analysis to help juggle
the
shelf-life of many of its products. For instance fresh milk lasts for six days while the company’s yoghurt
has 40
days to sit in the supermarket.
Seasonal taste adds to the complexity of shipping products across Europe, with items such as mozzarella
cheese selling better in summer. Another factor is that 60 per cent of Granarolo’s products are sold via
promotions and discounts. The consumer response to each of these deals has to be carefully calculated
by the
Bologna-based company.
Granarolo, applying past experience of how well promotions have worked in different outlets, uses the
machine learning program to
generate suggested stock levels. These predictions rely on data from 60,000 sites across Europe. […]

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One Number Planning
A step forward!

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Synergy across Functions: One Number Planning

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Synergy across Functions: One Number Planning

22. Trade Promotion Optimization System Company Confidential All Rights Reserved
Powerfully Simple
Synergy across Functions: One Number Planning
OPERATIONS SALES
Uplift (%)
Baseline (Vol)
Sales Team Members validate Promo
events (Net Uplift and Net ROI) which best
fits with Business OBJs and share them to
Supply Chain Team
Mid-term Promo Plans in compliance
with financial objectives built up from
lowest level of detail
Supply Chain
Key
Account
Trade
Marketing
Finance
Advanced promo & forecast models are
shared with sales teams in order to provide
an analytical basis business decision making

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Powerfully Simple
How to improve Promotion & Media ADV Effectiveness
Dynamic Market
Modelling
IN-STORE
ANALYSIS
Product location
Attractiveness
OOS
Planogram
MEDIA
FORECASTING
PROMOTION
FORECASTING
CATALOGUE &
ADVERTISING
Web and Flyers
Syndicated &
Sell-Out
Data
Supply Chain
Planning
Demand Forecast
Short, Medium &
Long term
Trade Promotion
Decision
Support System
by objective
and ROI

24. Demand Planning
Inventory Planning & Optimization
Replenishment Planning
Company Confidential
All Rights Reserved
Thank you for your attention