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VC Evolution: Geeks Got Next.
  (aka “Software Eats Venture Capital”)




      @DaveMcClure @500Startups
    #GROWconf @ Vancouver (Aug 2012)
Shit I’m Gonna Talk About
                      Pro Tip: Leave Now B4 This Gets Ugly
•   500 Startups: Dude. Srsly. Like, WTF?
•   Angel List: Use It, You Fucking Idiot.
•   Making Venture Work Better (This is Easy)
     –   MoneyBall 4 Startups
     –   Startups #FAIL & VCs #SUCK.
     –   Early Stage Investing = Risk Reduction
     –   Your Diligence Is an Illusion
     –   Guild of Geeks / Mentor Network
•   Making Incubators Work Better (This is Hard)
     –   It Takes A Village: Mentors, Advisors, Investors
     –   Education & Community
     –   Outlier Competition & Success Behavior Modeling
     –   Product, Market, Revenue, Pitch
     –   Customer Acquisition, Growth Hacking, & Platform Distribution
     –   Winners Win, Losers Lose, Tweeners Tween
•   Scaling VC
•   Going Intl
Dave McClure
                        Founding Partner & Sith Lord, 500 Startups




00’s & 10’s:
• Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media
• Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook

80’s & 90’s:
• Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 Startups: SRSLY, WTF?
           Mountain View, CA – Founded 2010
• Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
   –   10,000 sq ft / Silicon Valley HQ
   –   15 people / 7 investing partners
   –   Design, Distribution, Data
   –   US, Brazil, Mexico, India (+ more)
   –   600 Founders / 180+ Mentors
• 350+ Portfolio Co’s / 20+ Countries
   –   Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M)
   –   Twilio
   –   SendGrid
   –   TaskRabbit
   –   MakerBot
   –   9GAG 
   –   Unbounce
   –   HighScoreHouse
   –   StoryPanda
Angel List*: It Fucking Rocks.
     (Use it, You *&#% Idiot)




               • Startups & Investors
               • Activity & Metrics
               • Platform & APIs

               •   *ps – it’s not just for Angels
Making Venture Capital
    Work Better
  This is Actually Pretty Easy,
    Since Most VCs / Funds
           Suck Balls.
MoneyBall 4 Startups




                   http://slideshare.net/paulsingh/
moneyball-a-quantitative-approach-to-angel-investing-austin-tx-aug-2012


     1. Make Lots Of Little Bets
     2. Count Cards (Monitor Progress & Stats)
     3. Double Down on Winners
Startups #FAIL & VCs #SUCK.
                              But You Knew That Already
•   Play Blackjack, Not Roulette. (Count Cards. Make Lots of Little Bets.)
•   Don’t Be An Arrogant, Insufferable Prick.
•   Don’t Assume Your Diligence is 4 Shit.
•   Don’t Assume You. or They are Smart.
•   Build a Fucking Brand That Matters.
•   Increase Sample Size.
•   Don’t Make Big Bets Too Early.
•   Simplify Revenue Model. (as in: HAVE ONE, you fucking idiot)
•   Bet on Hackers, Hustlers, Designers.
•   Create a Community.
•   Invest after they have a functional prototype.
•   Be early and contrarian, or late and right.
•   Use The Tools (you fucking idiot): Twitter, Facebook, Quora, Instagram, Pinterest, etc
•   Talk / Blog / Present about something u know about, care about.
•   Admit Your Faults Frequently.
•   Laugh a little bit. (at yourself, not others).
•   Don’t worry too much about legal structure.
•   Worry a SHIT TON about valuation. (because your exits will be SMALL)
Bet on Singles, Not HomeRuns.
   (Look for Ichiros, Not Barry Bonds)
Early-Stage Risk Reduction
•   Intro: Crazy, Liars or crooks? Fucking idiots?
•   Product: does it work? (crappy, not perfect)
•   Market: are people using it? (not their mom)
•   Revenue: will people pay for it? (just a few)
•   Growth: how will it/they scale?
•   Finance: what will it cost
    – Q1: cost to get a customer?
    – Q2: how & when do you make money?
Your [up-front] Diligence Is An Illusion
        (Real Diligence = Quick Check + 3-6 mo’s)
• You Might Be Able to Detect Idiots & Assholes.
• You Probably Can’t Figure Out Winners (Yet).
• Your Network is Better Than Your Homework.

• Trusted Referrals >> Diligence
• Functional Prototype >> Team.
• Customers/Revenue >> Market.

• You’ll Be Wrong 4x out of 5x. (If U Don’t Suck).
• In 6 Months, You’ll Know If They Don’t Suck.
• In 1-2 Years, You’ll Know If They’re Awesome.
TIRED: White Guys in Khakis & Blue Shirts.
WIRED: Guild of Geeks. Mentors. YC, 500.
Making Incubators
  Work Better

(This is Actually Pretty HARD.)
           Find & Fund Potential.
            Help Them Improve.
         Education & Community.
             Access to Mentors.
            Access to Investors.
If You’re Lucky, Discover *a few+ Winners.
It Takes A Village
•   Physical Space.
•   People = Tribe.
•   Mentors (Advise 1st, Invest 2nd)
•   Events, Foods, Awesome.
•   This is YOUR FAMILY. Make Them AWESOME.
•   This is also YOUR BRAND. So Don’t SUCK.
•   Make a Big Tent. (Collaborate, don’t Compete).
Education & Community
•   Mentors, Investors
•   Design, Data, Distribution
•   Platform Partners
•   Sponsors & Strategics
•   Marketing & Visibility
Outlier Competition +
        Modeling Success Behaviors
•   You want min 3-5 “rockstars” to compete
•   Rockstars to model success for others
•   You can’t assume >20% rockstars
•   Therefore, pick 5x5 = 25 teams
•   3-5 rockstar teams emerge, compete, win
•   5-10 *other* non-rockstars learn
•   Prune losers quickly
Product, Market, Revenue
• Product: assess functional use, improve design/UX
• Market: test usage, distribution channels
• Revenue: test cust acq cost, revenue, *timing*

• Work on Pitch, Help Find Co-Investors, etc
Hacker, Hustler, Hipster
• Hacker: engineers & developers
• Hipster: design & UX
• Hustler: marketing & business

1. Build functional prototypes
2. Improve UX so people convert
3. Scale customer acq & distribution
Growth Hacking FTW
• (More Here TBD)
Winners, Losers, Tweeners
• Winners #WIN (with or without you)
• Losers #LOSE (with or without you)
• Tweeners #TWEEN
  – They might win with your help
  – They might lose with your help
  – Be helpful, but don’t dally

  – Note: you might be wrong about the losers &
    tweeners, so don’t be a fucking arrogant asshole.
Scaling VC
• VC is an immature & fragmented market
• It’s Ripe for Disruption
• It Hasn’t Scaled (Yet)
Going International
• Brazil, Mexico, India
• Canada, UK, Japan
• China, Indonesia, Russia, Turkey

• Etc

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GROWtalks - VC Evolution: Geeks Got Next - Dave McClure 500 Startups

  • 1. VC Evolution: Geeks Got Next. (aka “Software Eats Venture Capital”) @DaveMcClure @500Startups #GROWconf @ Vancouver (Aug 2012)
  • 2. Shit I’m Gonna Talk About Pro Tip: Leave Now B4 This Gets Ugly • 500 Startups: Dude. Srsly. Like, WTF? • Angel List: Use It, You Fucking Idiot. • Making Venture Work Better (This is Easy) – MoneyBall 4 Startups – Startups #FAIL & VCs #SUCK. – Early Stage Investing = Risk Reduction – Your Diligence Is an Illusion – Guild of Geeks / Mentor Network • Making Incubators Work Better (This is Hard) – It Takes A Village: Mentors, Advisors, Investors – Education & Community – Outlier Competition & Success Behavior Modeling – Product, Market, Revenue, Pitch – Customer Acquisition, Growth Hacking, & Platform Distribution – Winners Win, Losers Lose, Tweeners Tween • Scaling VC • Going Intl
  • 3. Dave McClure Founding Partner & Sith Lord, 500 Startups 00’s & 10’s: • Investor: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Companies: Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio, WildFire, SendGrid • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O’Reilly Media • Speaker: Lean Startup, Web 2.0, Stanford/Facebook 80’s & 90’s: • Entrepreneur: Founder/CEO Aslan Computing (acq’d) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins‘88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  • 4. 500 Startups: SRSLY, WTF? Mountain View, CA – Founded 2010 • Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator – 10,000 sq ft / Silicon Valley HQ – 15 people / 7 investing partners – Design, Distribution, Data – US, Brazil, Mexico, India (+ more) – 600 Founders / 180+ Mentors • 350+ Portfolio Co’s / 20+ Countries – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) – Twilio – SendGrid – TaskRabbit – MakerBot – 9GAG  – Unbounce – HighScoreHouse – StoryPanda
  • 5. Angel List*: It Fucking Rocks. (Use it, You *&#% Idiot) • Startups & Investors • Activity & Metrics • Platform & APIs • *ps – it’s not just for Angels
  • 6. Making Venture Capital Work Better This is Actually Pretty Easy, Since Most VCs / Funds Suck Balls.
  • 7. MoneyBall 4 Startups http://slideshare.net/paulsingh/ moneyball-a-quantitative-approach-to-angel-investing-austin-tx-aug-2012 1. Make Lots Of Little Bets 2. Count Cards (Monitor Progress & Stats) 3. Double Down on Winners
  • 8. Startups #FAIL & VCs #SUCK. But You Knew That Already • Play Blackjack, Not Roulette. (Count Cards. Make Lots of Little Bets.) • Don’t Be An Arrogant, Insufferable Prick. • Don’t Assume Your Diligence is 4 Shit. • Don’t Assume You. or They are Smart. • Build a Fucking Brand That Matters. • Increase Sample Size. • Don’t Make Big Bets Too Early. • Simplify Revenue Model. (as in: HAVE ONE, you fucking idiot) • Bet on Hackers, Hustlers, Designers. • Create a Community. • Invest after they have a functional prototype. • Be early and contrarian, or late and right. • Use The Tools (you fucking idiot): Twitter, Facebook, Quora, Instagram, Pinterest, etc • Talk / Blog / Present about something u know about, care about. • Admit Your Faults Frequently. • Laugh a little bit. (at yourself, not others). • Don’t worry too much about legal structure. • Worry a SHIT TON about valuation. (because your exits will be SMALL)
  • 9. Bet on Singles, Not HomeRuns. (Look for Ichiros, Not Barry Bonds)
  • 10. Early-Stage Risk Reduction • Intro: Crazy, Liars or crooks? Fucking idiots? • Product: does it work? (crappy, not perfect) • Market: are people using it? (not their mom) • Revenue: will people pay for it? (just a few) • Growth: how will it/they scale? • Finance: what will it cost – Q1: cost to get a customer? – Q2: how & when do you make money?
  • 11. Your [up-front] Diligence Is An Illusion (Real Diligence = Quick Check + 3-6 mo’s) • You Might Be Able to Detect Idiots & Assholes. • You Probably Can’t Figure Out Winners (Yet). • Your Network is Better Than Your Homework. • Trusted Referrals >> Diligence • Functional Prototype >> Team. • Customers/Revenue >> Market. • You’ll Be Wrong 4x out of 5x. (If U Don’t Suck). • In 6 Months, You’ll Know If They Don’t Suck. • In 1-2 Years, You’ll Know If They’re Awesome.
  • 12. TIRED: White Guys in Khakis & Blue Shirts. WIRED: Guild of Geeks. Mentors. YC, 500.
  • 13. Making Incubators Work Better (This is Actually Pretty HARD.) Find & Fund Potential. Help Them Improve. Education & Community. Access to Mentors. Access to Investors. If You’re Lucky, Discover *a few+ Winners.
  • 14. It Takes A Village • Physical Space. • People = Tribe. • Mentors (Advise 1st, Invest 2nd) • Events, Foods, Awesome. • This is YOUR FAMILY. Make Them AWESOME. • This is also YOUR BRAND. So Don’t SUCK. • Make a Big Tent. (Collaborate, don’t Compete).
  • 15. Education & Community • Mentors, Investors • Design, Data, Distribution • Platform Partners • Sponsors & Strategics • Marketing & Visibility
  • 16. Outlier Competition + Modeling Success Behaviors • You want min 3-5 “rockstars” to compete • Rockstars to model success for others • You can’t assume >20% rockstars • Therefore, pick 5x5 = 25 teams • 3-5 rockstar teams emerge, compete, win • 5-10 *other* non-rockstars learn • Prune losers quickly
  • 17. Product, Market, Revenue • Product: assess functional use, improve design/UX • Market: test usage, distribution channels • Revenue: test cust acq cost, revenue, *timing* • Work on Pitch, Help Find Co-Investors, etc
  • 18. Hacker, Hustler, Hipster • Hacker: engineers & developers • Hipster: design & UX • Hustler: marketing & business 1. Build functional prototypes 2. Improve UX so people convert 3. Scale customer acq & distribution
  • 19. Growth Hacking FTW • (More Here TBD)
  • 20. Winners, Losers, Tweeners • Winners #WIN (with or without you) • Losers #LOSE (with or without you) • Tweeners #TWEEN – They might win with your help – They might lose with your help – Be helpful, but don’t dally – Note: you might be wrong about the losers & tweeners, so don’t be a fucking arrogant asshole.
  • 21. Scaling VC • VC is an immature & fragmented market • It’s Ripe for Disruption • It Hasn’t Scaled (Yet)
  • 22. Going International • Brazil, Mexico, India • Canada, UK, Japan • China, Indonesia, Russia, Turkey • Etc