1. CLASS 13 Lecture 11
July 6th 2015
The International System:
Part II
Crisis Stability
2. TOP BOARD
Uni-polar world: One
Superpower & Six Great
Powers dominate
political relations
MIDDLE BOARD
Multi-polar world:
Global economy
BOTTOM BOARD
Power chaos: Disease,
terrorism, international
crime
5. Liberalism – Institutions and increased information
Institutions are a place for leaders to meet and
talk
Institutions provide information for all countries
Countries create rules* at institutions that make
international relations more predictable
…Institutions help create the long shadow of the
future for all countries.
6. G8
Annual meeting of leaders from 8 of the world’s
wealthiest countries
Make informal agreements on economic and political
issues
7. There is not just one market
States and non-state actors shape and are shaped by
economics
Markets depend upon the rules and institutions of the
space in which they operate.
So, political decisions fundamentally affect how markets
operate
◦ Property rights 財産権
◦ Contract Law 契約法
◦ Tariffs and quotas, etc. 関税と割当
European Central Bank (ECB,欧州中央銀行)
Frankfurt, Germany
8.
9. WTO is multilateral (多国間) instead of bilateral (二者間)
◦ Slowly liberalizes (自由化する) trade in small steps through
multilateral negotiation
◦ Goal is to liberalize trade but not so quickly that it will
hurt domestic employment
◦ Multilateral treaties are more efficient than bilateral
treaties…
◦ The WTO is a forum for concluding 1000s of bargains
among dozens of countries
◦ Periodic meetings or “rounds” to talk about new issues
areas in trade
10. Negotiate and enforce trade agreements
Same rules of trade for all members
Criticism from the left: perpetuates global inequality (不等を永続さ
せる), lowers standards, hurts environmental and labor laws, has
narrow representation (i.e. only wealthy states have power)
Criticism from libertarians (自由主義者) – anti-capitalist, pro-state,
wants to restrict countries ability to decide their own trade policies.
Miscellaneous criticism – complex rules, not democratic, not open
about how it makes decisions, causes jobs to decrease
HQ in Geneva
11. IMF – The International Monetary Fund
Based in Washington, D.C.
Supervise exchange rate system 為替相場制
Offer loans during economic crises
Loans often have policy conditions
12. Different voting rules, but important
issues require a supermajority
85% required for approval
US gets 17% of vote
Ensures wide support necessary,
But also gives US veto power
13. IBRD – International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development …“The World Bank”
Lends money to support development of poor states
Composed of several related organization known as the
World Bank “system”
Different voting rules, but important issues require
supermajority…similar weight as in IMF (i.e. US has
most voting power)
Based in Washington, DC
14. World Bank-funded projects
Money comes from Bank members; Projects are built by
private and public companies who compete for the
contracts.
The Sardar Sarovar Dam in Inida (left)
Huambo Water Supply System, Angola (right)
Highways in Iraq
15. “Institutional threads” & Kantian Triangle
There are many connections between peoples
and states and at many levels (leader-
leader, office-office, school-school, etc.)
These connections prevent violent conflicts
and would be very expensive and take a lot
of time to repair if they were broken.
16. Liberals say that IOs create international society
IOs create peace because they provide information,
rules and places for leaders to talk and to create
shared values
Institutions Peace
17. 2 reasons Why the international system is
stable
2. High level of crisis-stability
Crisis-stability:
The ability to keep control over events in a
tense, dangerous situation and avoid war.
18. Low crisis-stability:
There is a strong incentive for one state to attack
another state during an international crisis.
The state’s leaders believe there is a good chance
to survive and to win
OR
They believe they MUST be the first to attack in
order to survive.
20. High crisis-stability:
There is a strong incentive for BOTH states to
avoid attacking each other.
The states’ leaders believe there is a good
chance that even if their attack is
successful their state (and the people in it)
would be destroyed.
22. Why is high crisis-stability good for
the international system?
1. War is so destructive that even the winner
would be destroyed. So…
2. Countries will look for peaceful solutions
to conflicts.
*Read Nye’s example of the locked room full
of gasoline: Whoever lights a match will
destroy enemy but also himself.
23. The Cold War and crisis-stability.
Why was there no war between the US and the USSR?
M.A.D.
Mutually Assured Destruction
相互確証破壊
24. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Common principle in anarchic system.
When they do not trust their neighbors, states
make alliances with other states that are far away.
Creates a checkerboard pattern on the world map.
25. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
JAPAN-GERMANY-ITALY (WW2)
US-FRANCE-CHINA-USSR (WW2)
US-GERMANY-JAPAN-UK-FRANCE-ITALY (Cold
War) vs CHINA-USSR (until 1960s)
VIETNAM-US (since 2013)
26.
27. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
Common principle in anarchic system.
When they do not trust their neighbors, states
make alliances with other states that are far away.
Creates a checkerboard pattern on the world map.
28. LEVEL WHAT it tries to explain HOW
Individual
Choices made by leaders.
- Bush vs. Gore, Iraq War
Try to analyze psychology
and the perceived wins and
losses for the leader.
State
Why states behave the way
they do.
Study state type (capitalist,
communist, democratic,
authoritarian.)
System
How the logic of the system
creates certain actions.
Analyze the incentives and
power balances in the
international system.
29. IV. Levels of Analysis: The Pacific War
(25 points)
Read Nye’s analysis of the origins of the
Pacific War from Chapter 2 of the
textbook. According to Nye, what are
the individual, state (domestic) and
systemic level explanations for the
decision of Japan to go to war against
the US in 1941? (250 words)
30. Japan before Dec. 7(8), 1941: Summary
Parliamentary democracy in Taisho era (1912-26)
Colonies in Korea (1910), Taiwan (Formosa) (1895)
Militarists took control of government in 1930s
Tried to create Greater East Asia Co-
Prosperity Sphere
Created Manchukuo puppet state in China
(1932) – US begins trade sanctions.
Took control of French Indochina
(Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia). So…
US, UK, Dutch East Indies freeze Japanese
asssets, impose oil embargo
36. Realists say that the “institutional threads” and
“social” can be explained by Hegemonic Stability
Theory (HST)
Pax Americana created of institutions for
international economic cooperation
Hegemonic power Institutions Peace
If the US lost its power today, international
society would become chaotic and dangerous
tomorrow because…
Other Great Powers would compete to become
the new hegemon
