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Planning
Process Group
Project Management
Processes PMBOK 5th edition
Hossam Maghrabi,PMP
Planning Process Group
Project Boundaries
Planning Process Group
& Project Risk Management
To be successful, an organization should be committed to address risk
management proactively and consistently throughout the project.
Project Risk could exist at the moment a project is initiated. Moving forward on a
project without a proactive focus on risk management is likely to lead to more
problems arising from unmanaged threats.
Project Risk Management
Knowledge Area
Risk Management's General Concepts -
- Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative
effect on one or more project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, & quality.
- A risk may have one or more causes and, if it occurs, it may have one or more impacts.
A cause may be a given or potential requirement, assumption, constraint, or condition
that creates the possibility of negative or positive outcomes.
- Overall project risk is more than the sum of the individual risks within a project, since
it includes all sources of project uncertainty. It represents the exposure of stakeholders
to the implications of variations in project outcome, both positive and negative.
- The objectives of project risk management are to increase the likelihood and impact
of positive events, and decrease the likelihood and impact of negative events in the
project.
Risk Management's General Concepts -
The Project risk has its origins in the uncertainty present in all projects,
- Known risks are those that have been identified and analyzed, making it possible to
plan responses for those risks.
- Risks & Contingency Reserve – Known Risks that cannot be managed proactively,
should be assigned a contingency reserve. [Known – Unknowns]
- Risks & Management Reserve - Unknown Risks cannot be managed proactively and
therefore may be assigned a management reserve. [Unknown – Unknowns]
- An issue - A negative project risk that has occurred is considered an issue.
Project Risk Management
Knowledge Area
Risk Management's General Concepts
The risk attitudes -
Organizations perceive risk as the effect of uncertainty on projects & organizational objectives.
Organizations and stakeholders are willing to accept varying degrees of risk depending on their risk attitude.
The risk attitudes of both the organization & the stakeholders may be influenced by a number of factors,
which are broadly classified into three themes:
1. Risk Appetite - The degree of uncertainty an entity is willing to take on in anticipation of a
reward.
2. Risk Tolerance - The degree, amount, or volume of risk that an organization or individual will
withstand / hold out.
3. Risk Threshold - Which refers to measures along the level of uncertainty or the level of impact
at which a stakeholder may have a specific interest. Below that risk threshold, the organization
will accept the risk. Above that risk threshold, the organization will not tolerate the risk.
4. Risk Exposure is usually calculated by multiplying the probability of an incident occurring by its
impact or potential losses
The project may be accepted if the risks are within tolerances and are in balance with the rewards
that may be gained by taking the risks.
Project Risk Management
Knowledge Area
Plan Risk Management
Data Flow Diagram
The process of defining how to
conduct risk management activities
for a project.
It ensures that the degree, type, and
visibility of risk management are
commensurate with both the risks
and the importance of the project to
the organization.
To ensure support and perform an
effective Risk Management Process
over the project life cycle it is vital to
obtaining the agreement and support
of all stakeholders.
Plan Risk Management
Inputs
1. The project management plan - Provides baseline or current state of risk-affected
areas including scope, schedule, and cost.
– All approved subsidiary management plans and baselines should be taken into consideration in
order to make the risk management plan consistent with them.
2. Project Charter - Provide various inputs such as high-level risks, high-level project
descriptions, and high-level requirements.
3. Stakeholder Register - Contains all details related to the project’s stakeholders, provides
an overview of their roles.
4. Enterprise Environmental Factors - Include, but are not limited to, risk attitudes,
thresholds, and tolerances that describe the degree of risk that an organization will withstand.
5. Organizational Process Assets - Risk categories, Common definitions of concepts
and terms, Risk statement formats, Standard templates, Roles and responsibilities, Authority levels
for decision making, and Lessons learned.
Plan Risk Management
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
1. Analytical Techniques -To understand and define the overall risk management context of the project.
– Risk management context is a combination of stakeholder risk attitudes and the strategic risk exposure of a
given project based on the overall project context. Ex. A stakeholder risk profile analysis may be performed
to grade and qualify the project stakeholder risk appetite and tolerance. Other techniques, such as the use of
strategic risk scoring sheets, are used to provide a high-level assessment of the risk exposure of the project
based on the overall project context.
– Depending on these assessments, the project team can allocate appropriate resources and focus on the risk
management activities.
2. Expert Judgment - To ensure a comprehensive establishment of the risk management plan. Ex.
Senior management, Project stakeholders, Subject matter experts (SMEs).
3. Meetings - Project teams hold planning meetings to develop the risk management plan.
– High-level plans for conducting the risk management activities are defined in these meetings.
– Risk management cost elements and schedule activities should be developed for inclusion in the project budget and
schedule, respectively.
– Risk contingency reserve application approaches may be established or reviewed.
– Risk management responsibilities should be assigned.
– General organizational templates for risk categories and definitions of terms such as levels of risk, probability by type
of risk, impact by type of objectives, and the probability and impact matrix will be tailored to the specific project.
– The outputs of these activities are summarized in the risk management plan.
Plan Risk Management
Outputs
1. Risk Management Plan - Describes how risk management activities will be structured
and performed. Includes,
– Methodology - Defines the approaches, tools, and data sources that will be used to perform
risk management on the project.
– Roles and responsibilities -
– Budgeting - Estimates funds needed, based on assigned resources, for inclusion in the cost
baseline and establishes protocols for application of contingency and management reserves.
– Timing - Defines when and how often the risk management processes will be performed
throughout the project life cycle, establishes protocols for application of schedule contingency
reserves, and establishes risk management activities for inclusion in the project schedule.
– Risk categories - Provide a means for grouping potential causes of risk.
 Structure based on project objectives by category.
 A risk breakdown structure (RBS) is a hierarchical representation of risks according to
their risk categories.
Plan Risk Management
Outputs
1. Risk Management Plan - Describes how risk management activities will be structured
and performed. Includes,
– Definitions of risk probability and impact - The quality and credibility of the risk
analysis requires that different levels of risk probability and impact be defined that are
specific to the project context.
– Probability and impact matrix - A probability and impact matrix is a grid for mapping
the probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs.
– Revised stakeholders’ tolerances - Stakeholders’ tolerances, as they apply to the
specific project, may be revised in the Plan Risk Management process.
– Reporting formats - Describes the content and format of the risk register as well as any
other risk reports required.
– Tracking - Tracking documents how risk activities will be recorded for the benefit of the
current project and how risk management processes will be audited.
Plan Risk Management
Outputs
Identify Risks
Data Flow Diagram
The process of
determining which risks
may affect the project
and documenting their
characteristics.
It provides the
knowledge and ability
for the project team to
anticipate the Risk's
events through
documentation.
Identify Risks
General Notes
- Identify risks is an iterative process, because new risks may evolve or
become known as the project progresses through its life cycle.
- The process should involve the project team so they can develop and
maintain a sense of ownership and responsibility for the risks and associated
risk response actions.
- Stakeholders outside the project team may provide additional objective
information.
- The risk statements format should be consistent to ensure that each risk is
understood clearly and unambiguously in order to support effective analysis
and response development.
Identify Risks
Inputs
1. Project Management Plan,
2. Risk Management Plan,
3. Cost Management Plan,
4. Schedule Management Plan,
5. Quality Management Plan,
6. Human Resource Management Plan,
7. Scope Baseline - Project assumptions are found in the project scope statement. The WBS is
a critical input to identifying risks as it facilitates an understanding of the potential risks at both the
micro and macro levels. Risks can be identified and subsequently tracked at summary, control
account, and/or work package levels.
8. Activity Cost Estimates - They provide a quantitative assessment of the likely cost to
complete scheduled activities and ideally are expressed as a range, with the width of the range
indicating the degree(s) of risk.
Identify Risks
Inputs
9. Activity Duration Estimates - Identifying risks related to the time allowances for the
activities or project as a whole.
10. Stakeholder Register - To ensure that key stakeholders, especially the stakeholder,
sponsor, and customer are interviewed or otherwise participate during the Identify Risks process.
11. Project Documents - Project charter, Project schedule, Schedule network diagrams, Issue
log, Quality checklist...
12. Procurement Documents - The complexity and the level of detail of the procurement
documents should be consistent with the value of, and risks associated with, planned procurement.
13. Enterprise Environmental Factors
14. Organizational Process Assets
Identify Risks
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
1. Documentation Reviews - The quality of the plans, as well as consistency between those plans
and the project requirements and assumptions, may be indicators of risk in the project.
2. Information Gathering Techniques -
1. Brainstorming.
- The goal of brainstorming is to obtain a comprehensive list of project risks.
- The project team usually performs brainstorming, often with a multidisciplinary set of experts
who are not part of the team.
- Ideas about project risk are generated under the leadership of a facilitator, either in a traditional
free-form brainstorm session or structured mass interviewing techniques.
- Categories of risk, such as in a risk breakdown structure, can be used as a framework.
- Risks are then identified and categorized by type of risk and their definitions are refined.
2. Delphi technique. A way to reach a consensus of experts.
- Project risk experts participate in this technique anonymously.
- A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the important project risks.
- The responses are summarized and are then recirculated to the experts for further comment.
- Consensus may be reached in a few rounds of this process.
- The Delphi technique helps reduce bias in the data and keeps any one person from having
undue influence on the outcome.
Identify Risks
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
1. Information Gathering Techniques -
3. Interviewing - Interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts
helps to identify risks.
4. Root cause analysis (RCA) - method of problem solving - used to identify a problem, discover
the underlying causes that lead to it, and develop preventive action.
Identify Risks
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
3. Checklist Analysis
– Risk identification checklists are developed based on historical information and knowledge
that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of
information.
– The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.
– Care should be taken to ensure the checklist is not used to avoid the effort of proper risk
identification.
– The checklist should be reviewed during project closure to incorporate new lessons learned
and improve it for use on future projects.
4. Assumptions Analysis - To identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, instability,
inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions.
5. SWOT Analysis - This technique examines the project from each of the strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) perspectives to increase the breadth of identified
risks by including internally generated risks.
6. Expert Judgment - Note: The experts’ bias should be taken into account in this process.
Identify Risks
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
7. Diagramming Techniques
Identify Risks
Outputs
1. Risk Register -
The preparation of the risk register begins in the Identify Risks process with the
following information, and then becomes available to other project management and
risk management processes:
1. List of identified risks.
1. The identified risks are described in as much detail as is reasonable.
2. In addition to the list of identified risks, the root causes of those risks may become more evident.
2. List of potential responses.
- Potential responses to a risk may sometimes be identified during the Identify Risks process. These
responses, if identified in this process, should be used as inputs to the Plan Risk Responses process.
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Data Flow Diagram
Perform Qualitative Risk
Analysis is the process of
prioritizing risks for further
analysis or action by assessing
and combining their probability
of occurrence and impact.
It enables project managers to
reduce the level of uncertainty
and to focus on high-priority
risks.
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
General Notes
- Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis assesses the priority of identified risks using their,
- Relative probability or likelihood of occurrence,
- The corresponding impact on project objectives if the risks occur,
- Other factors such as,
- The time frame for response and the
- Organization’s risk tolerance associated with the project constraints of cost, schedule, scope, and quality,
- Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis usually a rapid and cost-effective means of
establishing priorities for Plan Risk Responses and lays the foundation for Perform
Quantitative Risk Analysis, if required.
- Attention should be paid to following points During the assessments processes
- The risk attitude of the project team and other stakeholders to identifying bias and correcting
for it.
- Establishing definitions of Probability and Impact’s levels can reduce the influence of bias.
- The time criticality of risk-related actions may magnify the importance of a risk.
- The quality of the available information on project risks helps to clarify the assessment of the
risk’s importance to the project.
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Inputs
1. Risk Management Plan -
2. Scope Baseline
3. Risk Register
4. Enterprise Environmental Factors
5. Organizational Process Assets
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
1. Risk Probability and Impact Assessment -
– Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur.
– Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as schedule, cost, quality,
or performance, including both negative effects for threats and positive effects for opportunities.
– Assessment Steps
 The level of probability for each risk and its impact on each objective is evaluated during the interview or
meeting. Project team members and knowledgeable persons external to the project are included.
 Risk probabilities and impacts are rated according to the definitions given in the risk management plan.
 Risks with low ratings of probability and impact will be included within the risk register as part of the watch
list for future monitoring.
2. Probability and Impact Matrix -
• Each risk is rated on its probability of occurrence and
impact on an objective if it does occur.
• The organization should determine which combinations of
probability and impact result in a classification of high risk,
moderate risk, and low risk.
• The risk-rating rules are specified by the organization in
advance of the project and included in organizational
process assets.
• Risk rating rules can be tailored in the Plan Risk
Management process to the specific project.
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
1. Risk Data Quality Assessment - Is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the
data about risks is useful for risk management.
2. Risk Categorization - Risks to the project can be categorized by,
1. Sources of risk (e.g., Using the RBS),
2. The area of the project affected (e.g., Using the WBS), or
3. Risks can also be Categorized by Common Root Causes.
4. Other useful categories (e.g., Project Phase) to determine the areas of the project most exposed to the effects
of uncertainty.
This technique helps determine work packages, activities, project phases or even roles in the project, which can lead
to the development of effective risk responses.
3. Risk Urgency Assessment - Risks requiring near-term responses may be considered
more urgent to address.
In some qualitative analyses, the assessment of risk urgency is combined with the risk ranking that is
determined from the probability and impact matrix to give a final risk severity rating.
4. Expert Judgment.
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Outputs
1. Project Documents Updates -
1. Risk register updates.
Updates to the risk register may include assessments of probability and impacts for each risk,
risk ranking or scores, risk urgency information or risk categorization, and a watch list for low
probability risks or risks requiring further analysis.
2. Assumptions log updates.
The assumptions log needs to be revisited to accommodate this new information becomes
available through the qualitative risk assessment. Assumptions may be incorporated into the
project scope statement or in a separate assumptions log.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Data Flow Diagram
The process of numerically
analyzing the effect of
identified risks on overall
project objectives.
It produces quantitative risk
information to support
decision making in order to
reduce project uncertainty.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Inputs
1. Risk Management Plan
2. Cost Management Plan - Provides guidelines on establishing and managing risk reserves.
3. Schedule Management Plan - Provides guidelines on establishing and managing risk reserves.
4. Risk Register
5. Enterprise Environmental Factors
6. Organizational Process Assets
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
1. Data Gathering and Representation Techniques -
1. Interviewing techniques - Draw on experience and historical data to quantify the probability and
impact of risks on project objectives. Ex. Three-point estimates (PERT)
2. Probability distributions - Continuous probability distributions - Used extensively in modeling
and simulation, represent the uncertainty in values such as durations of schedule activities and costs of
project components. It can be used to represent uncertain events, such as the outcome of a test or a possible
scenario in a decision tree.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques - Use both
event-oriented and project-oriented analysis approaches, including:
I. Sensitivity analysis - Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most
potential impact on the project.
It helps to understand how the variations in project’s objectives correlate with variations in different uncertainties.
Conversely, it examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being studied
when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values.
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques -
II. Expected Monetary Value analysis - is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when
the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen. It Requires a Risk-Neutral Assumption - neither risk
averse nor risk seeking.
Decision Tree Analysis. A common use type of EMV.
The Opportunities are expressed as positive values, while those of Threats are expressed as negative values.
EMV for a project is calculated by multiplying the value of each possible outcome by its probability of occurrence and adding the products together.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques -
III. Modeling and simulation - Uses a model that translates the specified detailed uncertainties of
the project into their potential impact on project objectives. Simulations are typically performed
using The Monte Carlo technique.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
4. Expert Judgment - The ideally using experts with relevant, recent experience is required
to identify potential cost and schedule impacts, to evaluate probability, and to define inputs such as
probability distributions into the tools.
- Expert judgment also comes into play in the interpretation of the data and identify the
weaknesses of the tools as well as their strengths.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Outputs
1. Project Documents Updates - Are updated with,
I. Probabilistic analysis of the project
 Estimates are made of potential project schedule and cost outcomes listing the possible
completion dates and costs with their associated confidence levels.
 This output, often expressed as a cumulative frequency distribution, is used with
stakeholder risk tolerances to permit quantification of the cost and time contingency
reserves.
 Such contingency reserves are needed to bring the risk of overrunning stated project
objectives to a level acceptable to the organization.
II. Probability of achieving cost and time objectives. Ex. The likelihood of achieving
the cost estimate of US$41 million is about 12%.
III. Prioritized list of quantified risks - This list includes those risks that pose the greatest
threat or present the greatest opportunity to the project.
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
Outputs
1. Project Documents Updates - Are updated with,
IV. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results -
- As the analysis is repeated, a trend may become apparent that leads to conclusions
affecting risk responses.
- Organizational historical information on project schedule, cost, quality, and performance
should reflect new insights gained through the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
process. Such history may take the form of a quantitative risk analysis report. This report
may be separate from, or linked to, the risk register.
Plan Risk Responses
Data Flow Diagram
The process of developing options and
actions to enhance opportunities & to
reduce threats to project objectives.
It addresses the risks by their priority,
inserting resources and activities into
the budget, schedule and project
management plan as needed.
It follows the Perform Quantitative Risk
Analysis process (if used).
Plan Risk Responses
Inputs
1. Risk Management Plan – Include,
Roles & Responsibilities, Risk Analysis definitions, Timing for Reviews, and Risk
Thresholds for low, moderate, and high risks.
Risk thresholds help identify those risks for which specific responses are needed.
2. Risk Register – Include,
Root Causes of Risks, Lists of Potential Responses, Risk Owners, Symptoms &
Warning Signs, The relative Rating or Priority List of Project Risks, Risks Requiring
Responses in the Near Term, Risks for Additional Analysis & Response, Trends in
Qualitative Analysis Results, and a Watch List, which is a List of Low Priority Risks
within the risk register.
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats -
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats -
1. Avoid - The project team acts to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact.
I. Some risks that arise early in the project can be avoided by clarifying requirements,
obtaining information, improving communication, or acquiring expertise.
II. The project manager may isolate the project objectives from the risk’s impact or change the
objective that is in jeopardy through changing the project management plan. For Ex.
Extending the schedule, changing the strategy, or reducing scope.
III. The most radical avoidance strategy is to shut down the project entirely.
2. Mitigate - The project team acts to reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of an adverse
risk to be within acceptable threshold limits.
I. Taking early action to reduce the probability and/or impact of a risk occurring on the project is
often more effective than trying to repair the damage after the risk has occurred.
II. Where it is not possible to reduce probability, a mitigation response might address the risk
impact by targeting linkages that determine the severity.
Example of mitigation actions, Adopting less complex processes, conducting more tests, or choosing a more stable
supplier, using prototype …
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats -
3. Transfer - The project team shifts the impact of a threat to a third party, together with ownership of the
response.
I. Transferring the risk simply gives another party responsibility for its management—it does not
eliminate it.
II. Transferring does not mean disowning the risk by transferring it to a later project or another person
without his or her knowledge or agreement.
III. Transference tools may include, the use of insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees, etc.
IV. Contracts or agreements may be used to transfer liability for specified risks to another party.
In many cases, use of a cost-plus contract may transfer the cost risk to the buyer, while a fixed-price
contract may transfer risk to the seller.
4. Accept. The project team decides to acknowledge the risk and not take any action unless the risk
occurs because they are unable to identify any other suitable response strategy. This strategy can be
either passive or active.
Passive acceptance requires no action except to document the strategy, the project team deal with the risks
as they occur, and periodically review the threat to ensure that it does not change significantly.
Active acceptance strategy is to establish a contingency reserve, including amounts of time, money, or
resources to handle the risks as they occur.
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities -
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities -
1. Exploit- The project team acts to eliminate the uncertainty associated with a particular upside
risk by ensuring the opportunity definitely happens.
Examples of directly exploiting responses include assigning an organization’s most talented resources to the project
to reduce the time to completion or using new technologies or technology upgrades to reduce cost and duration
required to realize project objectives.
2. Enhance- The project team acts to increase the probability and/or the positive impacts of an
opportunity. Identifying and maximizing key drivers of these positive-impact risks may increase
the probability of their occurrence.
Examples of enhancing opportunities include adding more resources to an activity to finish early.
3. Share- The project team acts to allocating some or all of the ownership of the opportunity to a
third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project.
Examples of sharing actions include forming risk-sharing partnerships, teams, special-purpose companies, or joint
ventures, which can be established with the express purpose of taking advantage of the opportunity so that all parties
gain from their actions.
4. Accept- Accepting an opportunity is being willing to take advantage of the opportunity if it
arises, but not actively pursuing it.
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
2. Contingent Response Strategies -
Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur.
– Risk responses identified using this technique are often called Contingency Plans or
Fallback Plans and include identified triggering events that set the plans in effect.
– The project team make a response plan that will only be executed under certain predefined
conditions, if it is believed that there will be sufficient warning to implement the plan.
– Events that trigger the contingency response should be defined and tracked.
Ex. Missing intermediate milestones or gaining higher priority with a supplier,
3. Expert Judgment -
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)
General Steps and Recommendation,
 Several risk response strategies are available so analysis tools, such as decision tree analysis
can be used to select one or mix of strategies most likely to be effective for each risk.
 Specific actions are developed to implement the strategy, including primary and backup
strategies, as necessary.
 Identify & Assign one person (an owner for risk response) to take responsibility for each
agreed-to and funded risk response.
 A fallback plan can be developed for implementation if the selected strategy turns out not to
be fully effective or if an accepted risk occurs.
 Secondary risks should also be reviewed. Secondary risks are risks that arise as a direct result
of implementing a risk response.
1. Project Management Plan Updates, include
1. Schedule management plan.
2. Cost management plan.
3. Quality management plan.
4. Procurement management plan.
5. Human resource management plan.
6. Scope baseline.
7. Schedule baseline.
8. Cost baseline.
2. Project Documents Updates, include
- The risk register should be written to a level of detail that corresponds with the priority ranking and
the planned response. Often, the high and moderate risks are addressed in detail.
The Risks judged to be of low priority are included in a watch list for periodic monitoring.
1. Other project documents updated could include, Assumptions log updates, Technical
documentation updates, and Change requests.
Plan Risk Responses
Tools & Techniques (T&T)

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Pmbok 5th planning process group part four _ Project Risk Management

  • 1. Planning Process Group Project Management Processes PMBOK 5th edition Hossam Maghrabi,PMP
  • 3. Planning Process Group & Project Risk Management To be successful, an organization should be committed to address risk management proactively and consistently throughout the project. Project Risk could exist at the moment a project is initiated. Moving forward on a project without a proactive focus on risk management is likely to lead to more problems arising from unmanaged threats.
  • 4. Project Risk Management Knowledge Area Risk Management's General Concepts - - Project risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on one or more project objectives such as scope, schedule, cost, & quality. - A risk may have one or more causes and, if it occurs, it may have one or more impacts. A cause may be a given or potential requirement, assumption, constraint, or condition that creates the possibility of negative or positive outcomes. - Overall project risk is more than the sum of the individual risks within a project, since it includes all sources of project uncertainty. It represents the exposure of stakeholders to the implications of variations in project outcome, both positive and negative. - The objectives of project risk management are to increase the likelihood and impact of positive events, and decrease the likelihood and impact of negative events in the project.
  • 5. Risk Management's General Concepts - The Project risk has its origins in the uncertainty present in all projects, - Known risks are those that have been identified and analyzed, making it possible to plan responses for those risks. - Risks & Contingency Reserve – Known Risks that cannot be managed proactively, should be assigned a contingency reserve. [Known – Unknowns] - Risks & Management Reserve - Unknown Risks cannot be managed proactively and therefore may be assigned a management reserve. [Unknown – Unknowns] - An issue - A negative project risk that has occurred is considered an issue. Project Risk Management Knowledge Area
  • 6. Risk Management's General Concepts The risk attitudes - Organizations perceive risk as the effect of uncertainty on projects & organizational objectives. Organizations and stakeholders are willing to accept varying degrees of risk depending on their risk attitude. The risk attitudes of both the organization & the stakeholders may be influenced by a number of factors, which are broadly classified into three themes: 1. Risk Appetite - The degree of uncertainty an entity is willing to take on in anticipation of a reward. 2. Risk Tolerance - The degree, amount, or volume of risk that an organization or individual will withstand / hold out. 3. Risk Threshold - Which refers to measures along the level of uncertainty or the level of impact at which a stakeholder may have a specific interest. Below that risk threshold, the organization will accept the risk. Above that risk threshold, the organization will not tolerate the risk. 4. Risk Exposure is usually calculated by multiplying the probability of an incident occurring by its impact or potential losses The project may be accepted if the risks are within tolerances and are in balance with the rewards that may be gained by taking the risks. Project Risk Management Knowledge Area
  • 7. Plan Risk Management Data Flow Diagram The process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project. It ensures that the degree, type, and visibility of risk management are commensurate with both the risks and the importance of the project to the organization. To ensure support and perform an effective Risk Management Process over the project life cycle it is vital to obtaining the agreement and support of all stakeholders.
  • 8. Plan Risk Management Inputs 1. The project management plan - Provides baseline or current state of risk-affected areas including scope, schedule, and cost. – All approved subsidiary management plans and baselines should be taken into consideration in order to make the risk management plan consistent with them. 2. Project Charter - Provide various inputs such as high-level risks, high-level project descriptions, and high-level requirements. 3. Stakeholder Register - Contains all details related to the project’s stakeholders, provides an overview of their roles. 4. Enterprise Environmental Factors - Include, but are not limited to, risk attitudes, thresholds, and tolerances that describe the degree of risk that an organization will withstand. 5. Organizational Process Assets - Risk categories, Common definitions of concepts and terms, Risk statement formats, Standard templates, Roles and responsibilities, Authority levels for decision making, and Lessons learned.
  • 9. Plan Risk Management Tools & Techniques (T&T) 1. Analytical Techniques -To understand and define the overall risk management context of the project. – Risk management context is a combination of stakeholder risk attitudes and the strategic risk exposure of a given project based on the overall project context. Ex. A stakeholder risk profile analysis may be performed to grade and qualify the project stakeholder risk appetite and tolerance. Other techniques, such as the use of strategic risk scoring sheets, are used to provide a high-level assessment of the risk exposure of the project based on the overall project context. – Depending on these assessments, the project team can allocate appropriate resources and focus on the risk management activities. 2. Expert Judgment - To ensure a comprehensive establishment of the risk management plan. Ex. Senior management, Project stakeholders, Subject matter experts (SMEs). 3. Meetings - Project teams hold planning meetings to develop the risk management plan. – High-level plans for conducting the risk management activities are defined in these meetings. – Risk management cost elements and schedule activities should be developed for inclusion in the project budget and schedule, respectively. – Risk contingency reserve application approaches may be established or reviewed. – Risk management responsibilities should be assigned. – General organizational templates for risk categories and definitions of terms such as levels of risk, probability by type of risk, impact by type of objectives, and the probability and impact matrix will be tailored to the specific project. – The outputs of these activities are summarized in the risk management plan.
  • 10. Plan Risk Management Outputs 1. Risk Management Plan - Describes how risk management activities will be structured and performed. Includes, – Methodology - Defines the approaches, tools, and data sources that will be used to perform risk management on the project. – Roles and responsibilities - – Budgeting - Estimates funds needed, based on assigned resources, for inclusion in the cost baseline and establishes protocols for application of contingency and management reserves. – Timing - Defines when and how often the risk management processes will be performed throughout the project life cycle, establishes protocols for application of schedule contingency reserves, and establishes risk management activities for inclusion in the project schedule. – Risk categories - Provide a means for grouping potential causes of risk.  Structure based on project objectives by category.  A risk breakdown structure (RBS) is a hierarchical representation of risks according to their risk categories.
  • 11. Plan Risk Management Outputs 1. Risk Management Plan - Describes how risk management activities will be structured and performed. Includes, – Definitions of risk probability and impact - The quality and credibility of the risk analysis requires that different levels of risk probability and impact be defined that are specific to the project context. – Probability and impact matrix - A probability and impact matrix is a grid for mapping the probability of each risk occurrence and its impact on project objectives if that risk occurs. – Revised stakeholders’ tolerances - Stakeholders’ tolerances, as they apply to the specific project, may be revised in the Plan Risk Management process. – Reporting formats - Describes the content and format of the risk register as well as any other risk reports required. – Tracking - Tracking documents how risk activities will be recorded for the benefit of the current project and how risk management processes will be audited.
  • 13. Identify Risks Data Flow Diagram The process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics. It provides the knowledge and ability for the project team to anticipate the Risk's events through documentation.
  • 14. Identify Risks General Notes - Identify risks is an iterative process, because new risks may evolve or become known as the project progresses through its life cycle. - The process should involve the project team so they can develop and maintain a sense of ownership and responsibility for the risks and associated risk response actions. - Stakeholders outside the project team may provide additional objective information. - The risk statements format should be consistent to ensure that each risk is understood clearly and unambiguously in order to support effective analysis and response development.
  • 15. Identify Risks Inputs 1. Project Management Plan, 2. Risk Management Plan, 3. Cost Management Plan, 4. Schedule Management Plan, 5. Quality Management Plan, 6. Human Resource Management Plan, 7. Scope Baseline - Project assumptions are found in the project scope statement. The WBS is a critical input to identifying risks as it facilitates an understanding of the potential risks at both the micro and macro levels. Risks can be identified and subsequently tracked at summary, control account, and/or work package levels. 8. Activity Cost Estimates - They provide a quantitative assessment of the likely cost to complete scheduled activities and ideally are expressed as a range, with the width of the range indicating the degree(s) of risk.
  • 16. Identify Risks Inputs 9. Activity Duration Estimates - Identifying risks related to the time allowances for the activities or project as a whole. 10. Stakeholder Register - To ensure that key stakeholders, especially the stakeholder, sponsor, and customer are interviewed or otherwise participate during the Identify Risks process. 11. Project Documents - Project charter, Project schedule, Schedule network diagrams, Issue log, Quality checklist... 12. Procurement Documents - The complexity and the level of detail of the procurement documents should be consistent with the value of, and risks associated with, planned procurement. 13. Enterprise Environmental Factors 14. Organizational Process Assets
  • 17. Identify Risks Tools & Techniques (T&T) 1. Documentation Reviews - The quality of the plans, as well as consistency between those plans and the project requirements and assumptions, may be indicators of risk in the project. 2. Information Gathering Techniques - 1. Brainstorming. - The goal of brainstorming is to obtain a comprehensive list of project risks. - The project team usually performs brainstorming, often with a multidisciplinary set of experts who are not part of the team. - Ideas about project risk are generated under the leadership of a facilitator, either in a traditional free-form brainstorm session or structured mass interviewing techniques. - Categories of risk, such as in a risk breakdown structure, can be used as a framework. - Risks are then identified and categorized by type of risk and their definitions are refined. 2. Delphi technique. A way to reach a consensus of experts. - Project risk experts participate in this technique anonymously. - A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the important project risks. - The responses are summarized and are then recirculated to the experts for further comment. - Consensus may be reached in a few rounds of this process. - The Delphi technique helps reduce bias in the data and keeps any one person from having undue influence on the outcome.
  • 18. Identify Risks Tools & Techniques (T&T) 1. Information Gathering Techniques - 3. Interviewing - Interviewing experienced project participants, stakeholders, and subject matter experts helps to identify risks. 4. Root cause analysis (RCA) - method of problem solving - used to identify a problem, discover the underlying causes that lead to it, and develop preventive action.
  • 19. Identify Risks Tools & Techniques (T&T) 3. Checklist Analysis – Risk identification checklists are developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information. – The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist. – Care should be taken to ensure the checklist is not used to avoid the effort of proper risk identification. – The checklist should be reviewed during project closure to incorporate new lessons learned and improve it for use on future projects. 4. Assumptions Analysis - To identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, instability, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions. 5. SWOT Analysis - This technique examines the project from each of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) perspectives to increase the breadth of identified risks by including internally generated risks. 6. Expert Judgment - Note: The experts’ bias should be taken into account in this process.
  • 20. Identify Risks Tools & Techniques (T&T) 7. Diagramming Techniques
  • 21. Identify Risks Outputs 1. Risk Register - The preparation of the risk register begins in the Identify Risks process with the following information, and then becomes available to other project management and risk management processes: 1. List of identified risks. 1. The identified risks are described in as much detail as is reasonable. 2. In addition to the list of identified risks, the root causes of those risks may become more evident. 2. List of potential responses. - Potential responses to a risk may sometimes be identified during the Identify Risks process. These responses, if identified in this process, should be used as inputs to the Plan Risk Responses process.
  • 22. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Data Flow Diagram Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis is the process of prioritizing risks for further analysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact. It enables project managers to reduce the level of uncertainty and to focus on high-priority risks.
  • 23. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis General Notes - Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis assesses the priority of identified risks using their, - Relative probability or likelihood of occurrence, - The corresponding impact on project objectives if the risks occur, - Other factors such as, - The time frame for response and the - Organization’s risk tolerance associated with the project constraints of cost, schedule, scope, and quality, - Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis usually a rapid and cost-effective means of establishing priorities for Plan Risk Responses and lays the foundation for Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis, if required. - Attention should be paid to following points During the assessments processes - The risk attitude of the project team and other stakeholders to identifying bias and correcting for it. - Establishing definitions of Probability and Impact’s levels can reduce the influence of bias. - The time criticality of risk-related actions may magnify the importance of a risk. - The quality of the available information on project risks helps to clarify the assessment of the risk’s importance to the project.
  • 24. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Inputs 1. Risk Management Plan - 2. Scope Baseline 3. Risk Register 4. Enterprise Environmental Factors 5. Organizational Process Assets
  • 25. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques (T&T) 1. Risk Probability and Impact Assessment - – Risk probability assessment investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. – Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as schedule, cost, quality, or performance, including both negative effects for threats and positive effects for opportunities. – Assessment Steps  The level of probability for each risk and its impact on each objective is evaluated during the interview or meeting. Project team members and knowledgeable persons external to the project are included.  Risk probabilities and impacts are rated according to the definitions given in the risk management plan.  Risks with low ratings of probability and impact will be included within the risk register as part of the watch list for future monitoring. 2. Probability and Impact Matrix - • Each risk is rated on its probability of occurrence and impact on an objective if it does occur. • The organization should determine which combinations of probability and impact result in a classification of high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. • The risk-rating rules are specified by the organization in advance of the project and included in organizational process assets. • Risk rating rules can be tailored in the Plan Risk Management process to the specific project.
  • 26. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques (T&T) 1. Risk Data Quality Assessment - Is a technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management. 2. Risk Categorization - Risks to the project can be categorized by, 1. Sources of risk (e.g., Using the RBS), 2. The area of the project affected (e.g., Using the WBS), or 3. Risks can also be Categorized by Common Root Causes. 4. Other useful categories (e.g., Project Phase) to determine the areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty. This technique helps determine work packages, activities, project phases or even roles in the project, which can lead to the development of effective risk responses. 3. Risk Urgency Assessment - Risks requiring near-term responses may be considered more urgent to address. In some qualitative analyses, the assessment of risk urgency is combined with the risk ranking that is determined from the probability and impact matrix to give a final risk severity rating. 4. Expert Judgment.
  • 27. Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis Outputs 1. Project Documents Updates - 1. Risk register updates. Updates to the risk register may include assessments of probability and impacts for each risk, risk ranking or scores, risk urgency information or risk categorization, and a watch list for low probability risks or risks requiring further analysis. 2. Assumptions log updates. The assumptions log needs to be revisited to accommodate this new information becomes available through the qualitative risk assessment. Assumptions may be incorporated into the project scope statement or in a separate assumptions log.
  • 28. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Data Flow Diagram The process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives. It produces quantitative risk information to support decision making in order to reduce project uncertainty.
  • 29. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Inputs 1. Risk Management Plan 2. Cost Management Plan - Provides guidelines on establishing and managing risk reserves. 3. Schedule Management Plan - Provides guidelines on establishing and managing risk reserves. 4. Risk Register 5. Enterprise Environmental Factors 6. Organizational Process Assets
  • 30. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques (T&T) 1. Data Gathering and Representation Techniques - 1. Interviewing techniques - Draw on experience and historical data to quantify the probability and impact of risks on project objectives. Ex. Three-point estimates (PERT) 2. Probability distributions - Continuous probability distributions - Used extensively in modeling and simulation, represent the uncertainty in values such as durations of schedule activities and costs of project components. It can be used to represent uncertain events, such as the outcome of a test or a possible scenario in a decision tree.
  • 31. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques (T&T) 2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques - Use both event-oriented and project-oriented analysis approaches, including: I. Sensitivity analysis - Sensitivity analysis helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project. It helps to understand how the variations in project’s objectives correlate with variations in different uncertainties. Conversely, it examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being studied when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values.
  • 32. 2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques - II. Expected Monetary Value analysis - is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen. It Requires a Risk-Neutral Assumption - neither risk averse nor risk seeking. Decision Tree Analysis. A common use type of EMV. The Opportunities are expressed as positive values, while those of Threats are expressed as negative values. EMV for a project is calculated by multiplying the value of each possible outcome by its probability of occurrence and adding the products together. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques (T&T)
  • 33. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques (T&T) 2. Quantitative Risk Analysis and Modeling Techniques - III. Modeling and simulation - Uses a model that translates the specified detailed uncertainties of the project into their potential impact on project objectives. Simulations are typically performed using The Monte Carlo technique.
  • 34. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Tools & Techniques (T&T) 4. Expert Judgment - The ideally using experts with relevant, recent experience is required to identify potential cost and schedule impacts, to evaluate probability, and to define inputs such as probability distributions into the tools. - Expert judgment also comes into play in the interpretation of the data and identify the weaknesses of the tools as well as their strengths.
  • 35. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Outputs 1. Project Documents Updates - Are updated with, I. Probabilistic analysis of the project  Estimates are made of potential project schedule and cost outcomes listing the possible completion dates and costs with their associated confidence levels.  This output, often expressed as a cumulative frequency distribution, is used with stakeholder risk tolerances to permit quantification of the cost and time contingency reserves.  Such contingency reserves are needed to bring the risk of overrunning stated project objectives to a level acceptable to the organization. II. Probability of achieving cost and time objectives. Ex. The likelihood of achieving the cost estimate of US$41 million is about 12%. III. Prioritized list of quantified risks - This list includes those risks that pose the greatest threat or present the greatest opportunity to the project.
  • 36. Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Outputs 1. Project Documents Updates - Are updated with, IV. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results - - As the analysis is repeated, a trend may become apparent that leads to conclusions affecting risk responses. - Organizational historical information on project schedule, cost, quality, and performance should reflect new insights gained through the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process. Such history may take the form of a quantitative risk analysis report. This report may be separate from, or linked to, the risk register.
  • 37. Plan Risk Responses Data Flow Diagram The process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities & to reduce threats to project objectives. It addresses the risks by their priority, inserting resources and activities into the budget, schedule and project management plan as needed. It follows the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process (if used).
  • 38. Plan Risk Responses Inputs 1. Risk Management Plan – Include, Roles & Responsibilities, Risk Analysis definitions, Timing for Reviews, and Risk Thresholds for low, moderate, and high risks. Risk thresholds help identify those risks for which specific responses are needed. 2. Risk Register – Include, Root Causes of Risks, Lists of Potential Responses, Risk Owners, Symptoms & Warning Signs, The relative Rating or Priority List of Project Risks, Risks Requiring Responses in the Near Term, Risks for Additional Analysis & Response, Trends in Qualitative Analysis Results, and a Watch List, which is a List of Low Priority Risks within the risk register.
  • 39. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T) Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats -
  • 40. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T) Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats - 1. Avoid - The project team acts to eliminate the threat or protect the project from its impact. I. Some risks that arise early in the project can be avoided by clarifying requirements, obtaining information, improving communication, or acquiring expertise. II. The project manager may isolate the project objectives from the risk’s impact or change the objective that is in jeopardy through changing the project management plan. For Ex. Extending the schedule, changing the strategy, or reducing scope. III. The most radical avoidance strategy is to shut down the project entirely. 2. Mitigate - The project team acts to reduce the probability of occurrence or impact of an adverse risk to be within acceptable threshold limits. I. Taking early action to reduce the probability and/or impact of a risk occurring on the project is often more effective than trying to repair the damage after the risk has occurred. II. Where it is not possible to reduce probability, a mitigation response might address the risk impact by targeting linkages that determine the severity. Example of mitigation actions, Adopting less complex processes, conducting more tests, or choosing a more stable supplier, using prototype …
  • 41. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T) Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats - 3. Transfer - The project team shifts the impact of a threat to a third party, together with ownership of the response. I. Transferring the risk simply gives another party responsibility for its management—it does not eliminate it. II. Transferring does not mean disowning the risk by transferring it to a later project or another person without his or her knowledge or agreement. III. Transference tools may include, the use of insurance, performance bonds, warranties, guarantees, etc. IV. Contracts or agreements may be used to transfer liability for specified risks to another party. In many cases, use of a cost-plus contract may transfer the cost risk to the buyer, while a fixed-price contract may transfer risk to the seller. 4. Accept. The project team decides to acknowledge the risk and not take any action unless the risk occurs because they are unable to identify any other suitable response strategy. This strategy can be either passive or active. Passive acceptance requires no action except to document the strategy, the project team deal with the risks as they occur, and periodically review the threat to ensure that it does not change significantly. Active acceptance strategy is to establish a contingency reserve, including amounts of time, money, or resources to handle the risks as they occur.
  • 42. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T) Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities -
  • 43. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T) Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities - 1. Exploit- The project team acts to eliminate the uncertainty associated with a particular upside risk by ensuring the opportunity definitely happens. Examples of directly exploiting responses include assigning an organization’s most talented resources to the project to reduce the time to completion or using new technologies or technology upgrades to reduce cost and duration required to realize project objectives. 2. Enhance- The project team acts to increase the probability and/or the positive impacts of an opportunity. Identifying and maximizing key drivers of these positive-impact risks may increase the probability of their occurrence. Examples of enhancing opportunities include adding more resources to an activity to finish early. 3. Share- The project team acts to allocating some or all of the ownership of the opportunity to a third party who is best able to capture the opportunity for the benefit of the project. Examples of sharing actions include forming risk-sharing partnerships, teams, special-purpose companies, or joint ventures, which can be established with the express purpose of taking advantage of the opportunity so that all parties gain from their actions. 4. Accept- Accepting an opportunity is being willing to take advantage of the opportunity if it arises, but not actively pursuing it.
  • 44. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T) 2. Contingent Response Strategies - Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur. – Risk responses identified using this technique are often called Contingency Plans or Fallback Plans and include identified triggering events that set the plans in effect. – The project team make a response plan that will only be executed under certain predefined conditions, if it is believed that there will be sufficient warning to implement the plan. – Events that trigger the contingency response should be defined and tracked. Ex. Missing intermediate milestones or gaining higher priority with a supplier, 3. Expert Judgment -
  • 45. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T) General Steps and Recommendation,  Several risk response strategies are available so analysis tools, such as decision tree analysis can be used to select one or mix of strategies most likely to be effective for each risk.  Specific actions are developed to implement the strategy, including primary and backup strategies, as necessary.  Identify & Assign one person (an owner for risk response) to take responsibility for each agreed-to and funded risk response.  A fallback plan can be developed for implementation if the selected strategy turns out not to be fully effective or if an accepted risk occurs.  Secondary risks should also be reviewed. Secondary risks are risks that arise as a direct result of implementing a risk response.
  • 46. 1. Project Management Plan Updates, include 1. Schedule management plan. 2. Cost management plan. 3. Quality management plan. 4. Procurement management plan. 5. Human resource management plan. 6. Scope baseline. 7. Schedule baseline. 8. Cost baseline. 2. Project Documents Updates, include - The risk register should be written to a level of detail that corresponds with the priority ranking and the planned response. Often, the high and moderate risks are addressed in detail. The Risks judged to be of low priority are included in a watch list for periodic monitoring. 1. Other project documents updated could include, Assumptions log updates, Technical documentation updates, and Change requests. Plan Risk Responses Tools & Techniques (T&T)