Master's defense presentation, in partial fulfillment of the requirements of master diploma in statistics and applied economics. Major applied statistics and econometrics.
Titled by : The impact of climate change on wheat yields, in North Africa.
Student Profile Sample report on improving academic performance by uniting gr...
ย
MASTER's DEFENSE PRESENTATION
1. The Impact of Climate Change on
Wheat Yield in North Africa
(1961-2019)
HOURIA BOUCHAGOUR
Masterโs Thesis Defense Presentation
National Higher School of Statistics And Applied
Economics (ENSSEA), Kolea, Algeria
September 2020
2. Outline
1. Introduction
2. Motivation
3. Research question
4. Methods and materials
5. Hypotheses
6. Results and discussion
27/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019) 2
3. 1. Introduction
Climate change has occurred
throughout many time scales. Since the
pre-industrial era, human activities are
speeding-up the changes in the climate.
It has already had observable effects on
the environment.
327/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
5. 5
3. Research Question
27/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
How much wheat yields change
over climate change in North Africa ?
6. 6
4. Methods & Materials
27/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
โข Just &Pope stochastic production function
๐ ๐๐๐ก, ๐ฝ = ๐ฝ0 + ๐ฝ๐ก ๐ + ๐ฅ๐
๐ฝ๐
๐
โข Cobb-Douglas Econometric specification
๐ = ๐ด ๐ฅ๐
๐๐๐ฟ
๐
7. 7
โข Long Balanced Panel Data (N=5, T=59)
โข Random Coefficient Model
๐๐๐๐๐๐ = ๐ท ๐ ๐๐๐๐ป๐๐ + ๐ท ๐ ๐๐๐๐ท๐๐ + ๐ท ๐ ๐๐๐๐จ๐ณ๐จ๐๐ + ๐ท ๐ ๐๐๐๐ญ๐๐
+๐ท ๐ ๐ป๐๐๐๐ + ๐ถ๐ + ๐๐๐
27/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
4. Methods & Materials
8. 8
Year Country Y T P ALA F
1961 Algeria 410 16,07 6,3 6472 7,57
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
2019 Algeria 1900 21,08 59,92 7069,48 18,15
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
1961 Egypt 2470 15,81 4,95 2499 96,95
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
2019 Libya 1210 23,75 40,82 1769,19 28,3
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
1961 Morocco 380 12,86 21,63 6590 4,39โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
โฆ
2019 Tunisia 2440 21,08 59,92 2996,35 31,07
[Year]: time scale (T=59)
[Country]: cross-sections
or panels (N=5)
[Y]: average annual wheat
yields
[T]: average annual
temperature
[P]: a. a. precipitation
[ALA]: arable land area
[F]: fertilizers
9. 927/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
4. Methods & Materials
10. 10
5. Hypotheses
27/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
โข The 5 countries have different average levels of the
endogenous variables (slopes);
โข Higher temperature will affect the wheat yield negatively
โข Precipitation has beneficial effects;
โข Control variables (F and ALA) and time trend have a
positive effect on wheat yields.
11. IPS(Im, Pesaran & Shin )
๐ป0: All panels contain unit root
๐ป1: Some panels are stationary
๐ป0 is rejected whenever
[ t-stat < t-tab ]
Chow
๐ป0: ๐ฝ๐๐ = ๐ฝ๐
๐ป0 rejected whenever
[ F-stat > P-value ]
11
IPS Unit
Root test
Chow
Poolability
test
Random
Coefficient
Model
12. 12
The estimated Random Coefficient Panel Model
๐๐๐๐๐๐ก = 15.15 โ 0.66 ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก + 0.20 ๐๐๐๐๐๐ก โ 0.98 ๐๐๐๐ด๐ฟ๐ด๐๐ก
+ 0.10 ๐๐๐๐น๐๐ก + 0.02 ๐๐๐๐๐ + ๐๐๐ก
6. Results & discussion
27/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
13. 1327/09/2020 THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WHEAT YIELD IN NORTH AFRICA (1961-2019)
6. Results & discussion
โข All the variables in the model are stationary
โข Our Panel data are not poolable. That is, each Country has
its own slopes for all regressors
โข Both fixed and random effect models may be misleading
โข [T], [P], [Trend], and [intercept] are significant variables in
the model; [F] and [ALA] are not.