Futures thinking slides from SAM Consulting

1. SAMI Consulting
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Welcome
to the
last
Blowing The Cobwebs Off Your Mind
with friends of Laurie Young
The Royal Society
22nd January 2014
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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2. The Cobwebs team
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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3. Laurie Young
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Died suddenly and shockingly
18th September 2013
We are missing him, and
hope that this event captures
some of his voice and ideas.
http://laurieyoungmemorial.wordpress.com/
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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4. Remembering Laurie
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Laurie Young prize,
Summit,
Essay competition,
1% club,
Funding vehicle for consultancies and business schools
to conduct original research into Thought Leadership.
• Richard Chaplin is the architect, has more details, and
would be delighted to talk about it in the break ------

5. Where this came from
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Laurie and Gill's book
Interest in futures & investment
“Cobwebs” meetings to develop the ideas
The cards & advisory work
Impetus to the Thought Leadership book
from last years’ Royal Society event
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6. What we have covered
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Futures trends
Dialogue about the forces
Cognitive bias
Three Horizons
Scenarios
VERGE
In the future, we will all fly organic.
The three horizons framework for layering change lifecycles
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7. Agenda for today
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Thought leadership
– Looking back, models of Thought Leadership
• Three Horizons
• Some Forces for Change
– Choosing a few
• Future models of Thought Leadership
– Feedback
• Just in case you are not convinced of the challenges
ahead
– Briefing on technology driven opportunities
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8. SAMI Consulting
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Thought Leadership
Dr Chris Yapp
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9. Laurie’s Last Book
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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10. The Cynical View
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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11. Why Now?
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Difficult economic times
Shortening product lifecycles
Commodification of services
Short-termism
Globalisation, BRICs, MINT…
• Complexity of change
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12. The Challenge
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Individuals and organisations
What is Thought Leadership?
Where does it come from?
How is it done?
Who does it well?
• What is the value of Thought Leadership?
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13. My Discussions with Laurie
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• It’s often done badly in IT and professional
services
• It’s often scoped wrongly
• Communicating internally and externally needs
to be improved
• Once ideas are out there…
• It’s all about context
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14. The Value of Thought Leadership
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• To individuals
– identity
• To organisations
– attracting & keeping talent
• To stakeholders
– story builds the relationship
• To governments
– ability to embrace the future
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15. Over to You---Robust decisions in uncertain times
• At the table
• Share some examples of Thought
Leadership
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16. SAMI Consulting
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons
Dr Wendy Schultz
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17. The Three Horizons Framework
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Three Horizons Framework for Layering Change Life-cycles
B Sharp, T Hodgson, A Curry

18. Origins of the Three Horizons
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Bill Sharpe, International Futures Forum:
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Technology roadmapping - inadequate
UK Foresight: Intelligent Infrastructures
Emerging practice
Reflection
Three Horizons: The Patterning of Hope
• Curry and Hodgson, cases and article
• Growing community of practice
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19. Three Horizons
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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20. Horizon ONE MANAGERIAL
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Today’s dominant pattern(s) –
accumulations of past decisions & designs
• H1 systems are fully integrated with
surrounding culture – ‘locked in’
• Well-established ways of dealing with
problems frame approaches to new
challenges
• Dominated by quantitative sense of time
as a limited resource
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21. Horizon THREE VISIONARY
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Imagined futures and emerging changes –
transformative shifts from the present
• Explores the ‘full range of possible social
settlements and systems that could be
brought into being’
• Surfaces and questions underlying cultural
assumptions
• Dominated by qualitative awareness of
time as a defining moment of decision
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22. Horizon TWO ENTREPRENEURIAL
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Looks both ways – past and future –
to respond to limitations of H1 and
opportunities of H3
• Creates a zone of innovation and turbulence
• Danger: “H1 capture” – too mired in the past
• Dominated by feelings of opportunity,
engagement and a sense of opportunity cost
– trade-offs that must be made
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23. Three Horizons: Mindsets
Robust decisions in uncertain times
MANAGER
Eg,
MUSIC,
MOVIES,
CDs,
DVDs
ENTREPRENEUR
Eg., MUSIC, MOVIES –
transformational disruptor
- iTunes
VISIONARY
Eg, MUSIC, MOVIES
– paradigm buster Napster

24. Three Horizons: Questions
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• What are the current working assumptions and systems of
production and marketing? What are you taking for granted
when you make management decisions (horizon 1)?
• What changes are emerging as completely new paradigms and
means to understand and undertake various human activities
(horizon 3)? What are visionary leaders saying?
• Which of the immediate changes you see represent a
transition or accommodation for evolving tensions as current
assumptions and work patterns obsolesce, and transformative
changes erupt into possibility (horizon 2)? What opportunities
do you see? What are entrepreneurs building?

25. Three Horizons Insights
Robust decisions in uncertain times
“Instead of seeing a world of stability to which
change and uncertainty ‘happen,’ we instead
become aware that everything that seems
fixed and stable is just part of a slow process
of change, embedded in other processes that
extend out as far as we want to explore.”
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26. Horizon One Questions
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Discuss Chris Yapp’s overview of thought leadership
models:
– What additional leadership models from the past would you add
to the list? What are traditional approaches to innovation?
– What current approaches to leadership and thought leadership
do most people take for granted?
– How do most businesspeople and managers assume innovation
will happen?
• Note each past & current model on a post-it, and add
them onto the Horizon One space on your table map.
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27. Horizon Three Questions
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Please review the 15 challenging changes we’ve
provided as a card deck at your table.
• Which of the changes significantly challenge traditional
and current models of thought leadership, either for the
good or ill? Place them on the Third Horizon.
• Are there challenging changes or visions that you would
add? Jot each addition down on a post it, and add those
to the Third Horizon as well.
• Look at your First Horizon thought leadership models.
• Which are the most challenged by change? Star those.
• Which changes challenge the most thought leadership models?
Star those.
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28. SAMI Consulting
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Emerging models?
Dr Chris Yapp
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29. Why Do We Need New Models?
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Deep uncertainties
• Influencing agendas
• Demographics – skills
– New disciplines: interdisciplinarity
• West to East
– Changing world order
• Environment
– Sustainability
• Technology
– Global networks
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30. Pro-Am
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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31. Wiki
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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32. Wisdom of Crowds
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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33. Big Data
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Government Open Data
• Large Corporate Data sets
• Internet of Things
• BUT how to use to generate insight?
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34. Open Innovation
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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Open vs Closed models
Co-design, co-delivery
Clusters, supply-chains and ecosystems
“Open Source”
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35. Overcoming the hype
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• "We can't solve problems
by using the same kind of
thinking we used when
we created them."
• "Any intelligent fool can
make things bigger, more
complex, and more
violent. It takes a touch of
genius -- and a lot of
courage -- to move in the
opposite direction."
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36. Potential Models
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Pro-Am:
– co-operation with known rules
• Wiki
– experts edit the rules
• Wisdom of Crowds
– diversity on complex problems
• Big data
– so what? How to make sense?
• Open Innovation
– eco-system of experts
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37. Horizon Two Questions
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Discuss Chris Yapp’s introduction of new thought
leadership models:
– Do these replace older models completely?
– Do any of the new models address or overcome the challenges
you’ve just identified as most significant?
– Can you look at the emerging changes and imagine any
additional, transformative, novel models of thought leadership?
• Identify to report back:
– The most significant, challenging change to thought leadership;
– The most profound new model of thought leadership emerging;
– The most surprising new need for thought leadership emerging.
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38. Your group’s summary
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Before reporting:
– Review the highlights of your discussion
– What one change presents the greatest
challenge?
– What was the most profound new model
for thought leadership that emerged?
– What was the most surprising new need
for thought leadership?
• Report back: three bullet points only!
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39. In Closing
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Laurie was Chairman of the Strategic Planning Society
– He suggested the formation of Special Interest Groups, SIGs
– We are planning to launch the Futures & Strategy SIG with a
series of events
– 30th April, 23rd July, 22nd October
• We are also planning Futures Bootcamps at Wolfson
College, Oxford
– Details from Wendy Schultz
• Watch for the announcements of the Laurie Young
Memorial Prize, the summit, the 1% Club, ---• And perhaps we may all meet again next year at The
Royal Society
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40. Thank You
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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