Presentation to Strategic Planning Society by Gill Ringland

1. Scenario Planning
Strategic Webinar Series
15 May 2013

2. Agenda
• Opening remarks - Fiona Carter, Executive Officer SPS
• Scenarios for India and China to 2015 - Gill Ringland, CEO SAMI
Consulting
• Q&A
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3. The Strategic Planning Society
SPS was formed in 1967 and is a global network dedicated to the
development of strategic thinking, strategic management and strategic
leadership.
Our Members are individuals, corporate organizations and business
schools.
We are dedicated to supporting Members to develop their strategic
management and leadership capabilities.
Our Vision
a dynamic, global strategic
management community
Our Mission
improve the practice,
development and recognition of
strategic management
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4. About the SPS Strategic Webinar series
A series of Webinars launched in January 2013 for SPS Members
worldwide.
Topics chosen for their broad application and appeal to the
Membership of SPS.
To provide insight and practical recommendations for strategic
managers and leaders.
Future sessions are planned to address subject areas such as strategy
and sustainability, strategy and organizational design and strategy
implementation.
Let us know if you would like to contribute to an SPS Webinar.
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5. Scenario Planning
•
There is on-going turbulence of the world economy
•
Scenario planning is being increasingly used in the public, private and NGO
sectors.
•
Asset managers are realising that 80% of their concern needs to be with the global
business environment, and 20% with the specific investment – a reversal from the
boom years to 2008.
Our speaker will share a case study with you:
•
A set of scenarios for India and China to 2015, examining how they were
generated, what the scenarios got right and what not, lessons learnt.
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6. Our speaker
Gill Ringland
• CEO of SAMI Consulting.
• Previously head of strategy at ICL now part of Fujitsu.
• Currently working with the European Commission, Eurocontrol,
the Technology Strategy Board and ACCA.
• Scenario planning books,
• Also Beyond Crisis ,co-authored with Oliver Sparrow and Patricia
Lustig,
• In Safe Hands? on Financial Services to 2050
• Here be Dragons, Exploring how organisations can incorporate
thinking about the future into their day to day planning and
projects.
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7. SAMI
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Our offer
– To enhance the capability to anticipate
– To transform emergent thinking into strategy and
implementation
– Consulting, backed up by executive education and research
to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times”
• “You can never plan the future by the past”
– Edmund Burke, 1729-1797
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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8. India and China to 2015
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Study commissioned by the City of London in
2006
• The City was concerned at the impact of India
and China on London’s Financial Services
– Were India and China the same or different?
– Were India and China a threat or an opportunity?
• 5,000 copies of the report were distributed
• Report in pdf on the SAMI web site
– www.samiconsulting.co.uk.under News &
Publications.
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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9. Scenarios for India and China
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Methodology
– Worked with Oxford Analytica’s country experts to
develop the scenarios
– Held workshops in the City of London to explore
implications for asset management, insurance and
international banking
– Published report in October 2006
• Will focus here on
– What were the scenarios and what has happened
since?
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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10. Comparing China and India
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• It is a mistake to see them as homogeneous – there are many
Chinas and Indias.
• The dynamics of development apply to China or India as much
as they do anywhere else.
• China or India can be thought of as a producer, a political power
or a marketplace, each raising distinct questions leading to
distinct approaches
• Our approach was - what are these countries going to be like as
places to do business, in which to invest, with which to
collaborate or compete?
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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11. Comparing China and India
Robust decisions in uncertain times
70
60
Attitudinal Distance
50
40
30
20
10
Australia
Canada
Market
USA
UK
Industrial
Germany
France
Japan
Collective
Spain
Brazil
China
Korea
Future-oriented
Chile
S Africa
Peru
Ecuador
Developing
Mld Inc
Guatemala
Mexico
Pakistan
Mixed views
Thailand
Turkey
India
Kenya
Poor
Indonesia
Nigeria

12. Comparing China and India
Robust decisions in uncertain times
20
Annual real GNP growth
China
10
India
0
-10
Indexed GDP, 1960=100 (constant money)
-20
Relative size in 2004
-30
1960
1965 1970 1975
1980 1985 1990 1995
2000
China
2000
China
India
1500
Middle
income
Lower middle
income
1000
Lower
middle
income
500
Middle
income
India
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000

13. The big questions for India
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• India is a very complex and consensus driven society
• Would frustration about
– China’s example
– Loss of esteem in Asia
– New generation with new views
lead to further liberalisation of economic, regulatory
and social controls?
• How would the balance of power between a federal
style of government with localism, and a more
centralised system, play out?
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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14. Scenarios for India
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Federal style of governance
Retreat to the
Woods
The Elephant
Lumbers along
Liberalisation is
reversed
Liberalisation
accelerates
2006
The
Elephant
Breaks its
Chains
Centralised system of
governance

15. What has happened in India?
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• India is one of the fastest growing economies in the
world as a result of liberalization of the last decades,
covering manufacturing, agriculture and financial
services.
• The balance of power between the central government
and the states has shifted slightly towards central
government as India moves to play a bigger part on the
world stage viz-a-viz the UN, Pakistan, etc. For
comparison purposes, the central government of India
has more power than the US Federal Government.
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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16. Scenarios for India: Direction
Robust decisions in uncertain times
Federal style of governance
Retreat to the
Woods
The Elephant
Lumbers along
Liberalisation is
reversed
Liberalisation
accelerates
2006
The Elephant
Breaks its Chains
Centralised system of
governance

17. The big questions for China
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• How long can China’s rapid economic growth
persist?
– Can China cope with the complexity it is creating?
– What are the adaptation mechanisms?
• How will China interact with the rest of the world?
– Will she be seen as a source of economic wealth and
growth?
– And/or a threat on the world stage, a source of instability?
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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18. Scenarios for China
Robust decisions in uncertain times
2006
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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19. What has happened in China
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• China’s economic growth has continued
– No longer as connected to US trade after 2008:
– focus on growing internal consumer markets
– 7.7% growth annualised in last quarter
• China has a foreign policy to protect its interests
– investments in raw materials in Africa, Latin America,
SE Asia, ex-USSR countries ,--– Seen as a source of cyber-crime
– aggressive in South China Sea
– Supports North Korea (shared road bridge)
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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20. Scenarios for China: Direction
Robust decisions in uncertain times
2006
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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21. What can we learn from these?
Robust decisions in uncertain times
• Scenarios need to build on history but not be constrained
by the past
– Experts can find it difficult to recognise signs of change
• Thinking about the trajectory – how the organisation
might get from A to B is important for identifying early
indicators that might show which scenario was emerging
– Elephant Breaks its Chains – early indicator: Indian companies
off-shoring to lower wage economies.
– Lion leads the Dance – early indicator: gradual liberalisation of
the renminbi $ exchange rate
• The scenarios allowed for discussion of previously less
explored future directions for China and India.
www.samiconsulting.co.uk
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22. Thank you!
Robust decisions in uncertain times
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