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






Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research
Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
Policy support
Rising income and demand for quality
products to boost consumer expenditure
Indian retail one of the fastest growing
markets in the world due to economic
growth
Favourable government policies to boost
investor confidence and thereby
investments across modern retail formats
Consumer expenditure estimated to be
USD3.6 trillion by 2025 vis-à-vis USD1.0
trillion in 2010
Retail market in India to reach USD866
billion by 2015 from the current USD516
billion
Modern retail market to expand to
USD88.3 billion by 2015 from USD40.5
billion in 2012
40.5
88.3
2012 2015E
Indian modern retail market size (USD billion)
516
866
2012 2015E
Indian retail market size (USD billion)
1
3.6
2010 2020E
India consumption expenditure (USD trillion)
CAGR: 13.6%
CAGR: 18.8%
CAGR: 29.6%
Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research
Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
Policy support
Robust consumption, rural markets to
augment FMCG market
Increasing participation from foreign and
private players to boost retail infrastructure
Rising number of tier-2 and tier-3 cities to
enhance supermarket space in the country
FMCG market expected to increase to
USD100 billion by 2025 from USD12
billion in 2006
Modern retail stores projected to reach
67,100 by 2016 from 11,192 in 2006
Supermarkets to total 8,500 by 2016 from
500 in 2006
500
8,500
2006 2016E
Supermarkets in India
11,192
67,100
2006 2016E
Modern retail formats (store counts)
12
100
2006 2025E
FMCG market in India (USD billions)
CAGR: 7.6%
CAGR: 19.6%
CAGR: 32.8%
• The engineering sector is delicensed;
100 per cent FDI is allowed in the
sector
• Due to policy support, there was
cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into
the sector over April 2000 – February
2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total
FDI into the country in that period
Growing demand
Source: Technopak; Aranca Research
Notes: SITP - Scheme for Integrated Textile Park; FDI - Foreign Direct Investment,
2021 E - Estimated figure for 2020; ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations
Demand potential
• Rapid urbanisation with increasing
purchasing power has led to
growing demand; consumers have
also become more brand
conscious
• The untapped rural market has
high growth potential
Innovation in Financing
• Collective effort of financial
houses and banks with
retailers are providing strength
to consumers to go for durable
products with easy credit
Policy support
• 51 per cent FDI in multi brand retail
• FDI up to 100 per cent in single
brand retail and for cash and carry
(wholesale) trading and exports
• Introduction of Goods and Service
Tax (GST) as a single unified tax
system from next fiscal year
Increasing investments
• Foreign retailers are continuously
entering the Indian market
• Cumulative FDI inflow in retail for
the period April 2000 – January
2013 was USD42.7 million; this is
expected to increase further as 51
per cent FDI in multi brand retail is
approved and limit is raised to 100
per cent in single brand retail
2012
Market
Value:
USD518
billion
2015E
Market
Value:
USD869
billion
Advantage
India
Source: Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd, Aranca Research
• Manufacturers
opened their
own outlets
• Pure play retailers
realised the potential
of the market
• Most of them in
apparel segment
• Substantial
investment
commitments by
large Indian
corporate
• Entry in food and
general
merchandise
category
• Pan-India
expansion to top
100 cities
• Repositioning by
existing players
Initiation
Conceptualisation
Expansion
Consolidation
• Large scale consolidation
• Movement to smaller
cities and rural areas
• More than 5–6 players
with revenues more than
USD700 million
• Large scale entry of
international brands
• FDI in single-brand retail
up to 100 per cent from
51 per cent
• Approval of FDI limit in
multi-brand retail up to
51 per cent
• Rise in private label
brands by retail players
• Increasing investments
in retail infrastructure
Pre 1990s
1990–05
2005–10
2010 onward
Source: Aranca Research
Notes: IT- Information Technology
Mono/exclusive
branded retail shops
Multi-branded retail
shops
Convergence retail
outlets
Exclusive showrooms either owned or
franchised out by a manufacturer
Complete range available for a
given brand, certified product
quality
Focus on particular product categories
and carry most of the brands available
Customers have more choices as
many brands are on display
Display most of convergence as well as
consumer/electronic products, including
communication and IT group
One-stop shop for customers;
many product lines of different
brands on display
e-Trailers
It is an online shopping facility for
buying and selling products and
services; the facility is widely used for
electronics, health and wellness
Highly convenient as it provides
24X7 access, saves time, and
ensures secure transaction
Source: Aranca Research
Grocery Food and beverage Department stores Pharmacy
Books, music and
gifts
RETAIL
Source: Company websites, KPMG, Aranca Research
Departmental stores Hypermarkets
Supermarkets/
Convenience stores
Specialty stores Cash & Carry stores
• Pantaloon has 65
stores
• Trent operates 59
stores
• Shoppers Stop
has 51 stores
• Reliance Retail
has launched
Trends in this
format
• Pantaloon Retail
is the leader in
this format with
160 Big Bazaar
stores
• HyperCITY (4
stores), Trent,
Spencer’s
(Spencer Hyper),
Aditya Birla Retail
(additional 14
stores) and
Reliance are other
players
• Aditya Birla Retail
(additional 509
stores)
• Spencer’s (Daily,
220 stores)
• Reliance Fresh
(458 stores)
• REI 6Ten (350
stores) are the
major players in
this format
• Titan Industries is
a large player,
with 320 World of
Titan, 130
Tanishq and 177
Titan Eye+ shops
• Vijay Sales,
Croma and E-
Zone are into
consumer
electronics
• Landmark, and
Crossword focus
on books and gifts
• Metro started the
cash-and-carry
model in India; the
company
operates five
stores across
Mumbai, Kolkata,
Hyderabad and
Bangalore
• Bharti Walmart
started its cash-
and-carry outlets
in 2011
Retail
Source: KPMG International 2011, Aranca Research
Multiple franchisee model Rural retailing
Collaborative model for
international products
Vertical integration
Collaboration for back-end
resource sharing
Increasing market reach
Innovation in new retail formats Direct sourcing arrangements Focus on private labels
Source: KPMG International, Aranca Research
Offering discounts
• Most retailers have advanced off-season sales from 15 days to a month with discounts
ranging from 20-70 per cent on certain products
• Higher discounts and other value added services for members
Lowering prices
• Certain retailers adopt ‘First Price Right’ approach. Retailers do not offer discounts under
this strategy – they directly compete on the selling price by offering a best price without
any markdowns
Offering value-added
services
• Companies offer innovative value added services such as customer loyalty programmes,
happy hours on shopping deals
• Offers for senior citizens, contests for students, and lottery gains are now very common
Leveraging partnerships
• In order to keep customers on shop floors for a longer time and increase conversions,
retailers are now pitching to partner with manufacturers, service providers, financial
companies, etc. to create a buzz around certain product categories
Source: Deloitte, indiaretailing.com, Economist
Intelligence Unit, Euro monitor, Aranca Research
Market size over the past few years (USD billion)The retail sector in India is emerging as one of the largest
sectors in the economy
By 2012, the total market size reached USD518 billion,
thereby registering a CAGR of 7.0 per cent since 1998
201 204
238
278
321 368
424
518
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
CAGR: 7.0%
Source: Indian Retail Market September 2011,
Deliotte, Aranca Research
Market break-up by revenues (2012)In 2012, ‘Food and Grocery’ accounted for nearly 60.0 per
cent of total revenues in the retail sector followed by
Apparel (8.0 per cent)
In 2011, 48 per cent of total household income in India was
spent on food and groceries
Demand for Western outfits and readymade garments has
been growing at 40-45 per cent annually; apparel
penetration is expected to increase to 30-35 per cent by
2015
60%
8%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
11%
Food & Grocery
Appareal
Mobile and telecom
Food service
Jewellery
Consumer Electronics
Pharmacy
Others
Source: indiaretailing.com, E&Y Report, Aranca Research
Orgainsed retail penetration (2012)
Organised Retail Penetration (ORP) in India is low (8 per cent) compared to other countries such as the US (85 per cent)
This indicates strong growth potential for organised retail in India
Contribution to organised retail (2012)
92%
8%
Unorganised retail
penetration
Organised retail
penetration
11%
33%
11%
7%
6%
8%
4%
20%
Food & Grocery
Appareal
Mobile and telecom
Food service
Jewellery
Consumer Electronics
Footwear
Others
Source: indiaretailing.com, Deloitte report,
Winning in India’s Retail Sector, Aranca Research
Notes: ‘Mom-and-pop’ stores are small stores that are
typically owned and run by members of a family
Significant scope for expansion in organised retailIndian retail market is in its nascent stage; unorganised
players control the market with 92 per cent market share
during 2012
There are over 12 million mom-and-pop stores
Organised retail is expected to account for 20 per cent of
the overall retail market by 2020 92%
80%
8%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2020
Unorganised retail penetration Organised retail penetration
500
4,000
2006 2011
40
300
2006 2011
10,000
30,000
2006 2011
2
30
2006 2011
Hypermarkets – Number of storesSupermarkets – Number of stores
Speciality stores – Number of stores Cash and carry – Number of stores
Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research
Source: Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd,
Cushman & Wakefield Research
Note: * - NCR, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai,
** - Bangalore, Pune, Hyderabad and Ahmadabad
Additional mall space requirement by 2013-14
(million sq feet)
Grocery sales growth across countries (2010)
18.4%
12.4%
11.1%
10%
3%
2%
0%
India China Russia Brazil UK USA Japan
45
21
Top 4 Cities* Next Four Cities**
Source: IGD International: Indian Retail Forum presentation - 2010
Source: Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd,
Cushman & Wakefield Research
Break-up of all mall space by format (2013-14)India’s ‘Grocery’ retail segment is the most attractive in the
world
Hypermarkets would be the largest retail segment,
accounting for 21 per cent of total retail space by 2013–14 21%
19%
14%
10%
8%
9%
8%
6% 3%
1% Hypermarkets
Apparel stores
Multiplexes, gaming &
food court
Department stores
Footwear stores
Restaurants& fastfood
outlets
Mobile stores
Super markets
Jewellary& time wear
outlets
Pharmacy outlets
Source: Indian Retail Market September 2011, Aranca Analysis
India is ranked fifth in the Global Retail Development Index in 2012
India’s strong growth fundamentals along with increased urbanisation and consumerism opened immense scope for retail
expansion for foreign players
Recent government reforms for attracting FDI and boosting investor sentiment
Rapid emergence of organised retail outlets like mega malls and hypermarkets are augmenting the growth of organised
retail in the country
Constant improvements in supply chains and logistics by retailers for competitive advantage and meeting consumer
demands
Source: A.T.Kearney 2011 Global Retail Development Report,
Aranca Analysis
India ranks sixth in the 2011 Global Apparel IndexIndia ranks fifth in the 2012 Global Retail
Development Index
61.4%
58.9%
48.6%
46.4%
43.9%
42.0%
40.1%
37.4% 37.3% 36.9%
China UAE Kuwait Russia Saudi
Arabia
India Brazil Turkey Vietnam Chile
73.8%
65.3%
63.8% 63.1%
60.8% 60.6%
60.6%
58.9%
58.5%58.0%
Source: A.T.Kearney 2012 FDI Confidence Index, Aranca Analysis
Note: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment;
* - The FDI Confidence Index assesses the impact of political,
economic and regulatory changes on FDI preferences
FDI Confidence Index 2012India has occupied a remarkable position in global retail
rankings; the country has high market potential, low
economic risk, and moderate political risk
In market potential, India ranks second after Brazil
Net retail sales in India is also quite significant among
emerging and developed nations; the country is ranked third
after China and Brazil
From an overall perspective, given its high growth potential,
India scores well among foreign investors compared to
global economy peers; for example, in the FDI Confidence
Index* 2012, India ranks second, up from third position in
2010
1.52
1.52
1.52
1.6
1.73
1.87
0 0.5 1 1.5 2
United States
Germany
Australia
Brazil
India
China
Source: 2012 Global Retail Development Index - AT Kearney, Aranca Research
Note: GRDI - Global Retail Development Index
2012 GRDI country attractiveness in retail investment
Source: MasterCard Worldwide Insights 4Q 2010, Aranca Research
Notes: APMEA - Asia/ Pacific, Middle East and Africa
E-commerce industry in India (USD billion)
E-commerce is expected to be the next major area for retail growth in India. The industry is projected to increase from
USD70 billion in 2011 to USD200 billion in 2020
With growth in the E-commerce industry, online retail is estimated to reach USD70 billion by 2020 from USD0.6 billion in
2011
Online retail in India (USD billion)
0.6
70
2011 2020E
Online retail in India (USD billions)
10
200
2011 2020E
E-commerce industry in India (USD billions)
Source: MasterCard Worldwide Insights 4Q 2010, Aranca Research
Notes: APMEA - Asia/ Pacific, Middle East and Africa
APMEA Master card regional online shopping indexThe key drivers for growing importance of online retail are a
young population aided by easier access to credit and
payment options; increasing internet penetration and speed,
24-hour accessibility, convenient and secured transactions
Computer peripherals, camera and mobiles, and lifestyle
segments account for a majority of total purchases
65
70
25
21
25
28
65
62
30 31 30 33
63
57
38
32 29
36
0
20
40
60
80
South
Korea
Japan China India Hong
Kong
Global
Index
2008 2009 2010
Source: Aranca Research
Favourable
demographics
Rise in income and
purchasing power
Change in
consumer mindset
Easy consumer
credit and increase
in quality products
Brand
consciousness
Source: Aranca Research
1991
1997
2006
2008
2012
Liberalisation: FDI up to 51 per
cent allowed under the automatic
route in select priority sectors
FDI up to 100 per cent allowed
under the automatic
route in Cash & Carry
(wholesale)
Government proposed
introducing FDI in multi-brand
retail (2008); follows up in 2012
by approving plan to raise the FDI
limit to 51 per cent
FDI up to 51 per cent allowed
with prior government
approval in single-brand
retail
Government approved 51 per
cent FDI in multi-brand retail and
increased FDI limit to 100 per
cent (from 51 per cent) in single
brand retail
Increase in employment Infrastructure Investment Removing middlemen
Benefiting Indian
manufacturers
Benefits of FDI in Indian retail
FDI limitSector Entry route
Whole sale cash and
carry trading
Single brand product
retailing
Multi brand, front end
retail
100%
100%
51%
Automatic
Foreign Investment
and Promotion Board
Foreign Investment
and Promotion Board
51% FDI in multi -
brand retail
Status: Policy passed
100% FDI in single
brand retail
Status: Policy passed
• Minimum investment cap is USD100 million
• 30 per cent procurement of manufactured or processed products must be from SMEs
• Minimum 50 per cent of total FDI must be invested in back-end infrastructure (logistics, cold
storage, soil testing labs, seed farming and agro-processing units)
• Removes the middlemen and provides a better price to farmers
• Development in the retail supply chain system
• 50 per cent of the jobs in the retail outlet could be reserved for rural youth and a certain amount
of farm produce could be required to be procured from poor farmers
• To ensure the Public Distribution System (PDS) and Food Security System (FSS), government
reserves the right to procure a certain amount of food grains
• Multi brand retail would keep food and commodity prices under control
• Will cut agricultural waste as mega retailers would develop backend infrastructure
• Consumers will receive higher quality products at lower prices and better service
• Products to be sold under the same brand internationally
• Sale of multi brand goods is not allowed, even if produced by the same manufacturer
• For FDI above 51 per cent, 30 per cent sourcing must be from SMEs
• Consumerism of the retail market
• Any additional product categories to be sold under single brand retail must first receive
additional government approval
Source: Aranca Research
Goods and Service Tax
(GST)
System changes and transition management
• Changes need to be made to accounting and IT
systems in order to record transactions in line with
GST requirements
• Appropriate measures need to be taken to ensure
smooth transition to the GST regime – through
employee training, compliance under GST,
customer education and inventory credit tracking
Supply chain structure
• Introduction of Goods and Service Tax (GST) as a
unified tax regime will lead to a re-evaluation of
procurement and distribution arrangements
• Removal of excise duty on products would result in
cash flow improvements
Cash flow
• Tax refunds on goods purchased for resale implies
a significant reduction in the inventory cost of
distribution
• Distributors are also expected to experience cash
flow from collection of GST in their sales, before
remitting it to the government at the end of the tax-
filing period
Pricing and profitability
• Elimination of tax cascading is expected to lower
input costs and improve profitability
• Application of tax at all points of supply chain is
likely to require adjustments to profit margins,
especially for distributors and retailers
Source: Aranca Research
Multiple drivers are leading to strong growth in Indian retail through a ‘consumption boom’
Significant growth in discretionary income and changing lifestyles are counted among the major growth drivers of Indian
retail
Easy availability of credit and use of ‘plastic money’ have contributed to a strong and growing consumer culture in India
Increasing acceptance and usage of e-trailers by consumers due to convenience and secured financial transactions
Expansion in the size of the upper middle class and advertisement has led to greater spending on luxury products and
high brand consciousness
Source: IMF, Aranca Research
Rising per capita income in IndiaReal income growth projections
4.6%
6.9% 7.6%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
6.2%
6.8%
10.6%
7.2%
7.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.00
500.00
1,000.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
2,500.00
3,000.00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
2013F
2014F
2015F
2016F
2017F
Per capita income,USD Annual growth rate
Source: IMF, Aranca Research
Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research
Future Retail sales growth (USD billion)Revenues expanded at a robust CAGR of 22.7 per cent
during FY08-12
FY12 revenues stood at USD2.7 billion
Hypermarket and supermarket formats have a network of
more than 315 stores encompassing an area of over 11
million square feet.
Under Future Fashion, the company owns a portfolio of 24
leading brands and covers more than 121 cities
1.4
1.7
2.1
2.7 2.7
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12
CAGR: 22.7%
Source: Company Annual Report,
Aranca Research
Note: msf - Million Square Feet
Has a good understanding of the Indian retail sector and its customers
Future Retail Ltd (FY12)
• Revenue: USD2.7 billion
• Operational retail
space:16.3 msf
• Over 1000 stores in 121
cities
• Employees: 36,000
Ground-up
Development
The Right JV’s at the
Right Time
Winning Team Versatile Retailing
Multiple Formats,
Multiple Brands-A
Comprehensive
Retail Experiment
Pantaloon Retail
Success factors
Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research
Note: First Citizen Loyalty Programme is a membership scheme
for its members to avail discounts and promotional offers
Shoppers Stop business format (2011)The company owns 172 stores in 25 cities with 4.81 million
sq ft space across eight store formats
Successfully introduced a number of international brands
Improved product mix and brand profiles to attract new
customers
Over 2.5 million customers are a part of the First Citizen
Loyalty Programme
77%
21%
2%
SS Department
Stores Business
Subsidiary
Companies
JV Companies
Non Apparels
35%
Apparels
65%
Non Apparels
41%
Apparels
59%
FY 05 FY 11
Shoppers Stop
(apparel, accessories,
footwear, jewelry and
décor)
Homestop
(home furnishing)
Crossword
(Books and other
entertainement)
Mothercare
(infant and toddler
care)
Estee Lauder, Mac
and Clinique
(Beauty)
Shoppers Stop
(Brands and JVs)
276.5 284.7
307.8
491.0
581.7 583.8
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
Shoppers Stop’s diversified portfolioShoppers Stop’s sales growth (USD million)
Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research
CAGR: 16.1%
Average selling price (INR)Footfalls (in million)
Source: Company Annual Report, Business India - March 2013, Aranca Research
Average transaction size (INR)Members ('000)
1,720
1,843
2,029
2,311 2,321
2,443
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13
759
821 856
913 977
1,081
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13
1,013
1,277
1,611
2,017
2,503
2,799
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13
24.9 22.3 23.3
31.0 36.7
29.7
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9M13
Source: KPMG International 2011, Aranca Research
DemandFactors
Higher brand consciousness
Growing young population
and working women
Rising incomes and purchasing power
Changing consumer preferences and
growing urbanisation
Indian Retail Opportunity
Rapid real estate and infrastructure
development
Development of supply chain improving
efficiency
Easy availability of credit
R&D, innovation and new product
development
SupplyFactors
Source: Aranca Research
Notes: FMCG - Fast Moving Consumer Goods
Large number of retail
outlets
• India is the fifth largest preferred retail destination globally
• The sector is experiencing exponential growth, with retail development taking place not
just in major cities and metros, but also in Tier-II and Tier-III cities
Rural markets offer
significant growth
potential
• FMCG players are focusing on rural market as it constitutes over 33 per cent of FMCG
consumer base in India
• With increasing investment in infrastructure, retailers will be able to increase their access
to high-growth potential rural market
Private label
opportunities
• The organised Indian retail industry has begun experiencing an increased level of activity
in the private label space
• Private label strategy is likely to play a dominant role as its share in the US and the UK
markets is 19 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively while its share in India is just 6 per
cent
Sourcing base
• India‘s price competitiveness attracts large retail players to use it as a sourcing base
• Global retailers such as Walmart, GAP, Tesco and JC Penney are increasing their
sourcing from India and are moving from third-party buying offices to establishing their
own wholly-owned/wholly-managed sourcing and buying offices
Source: Indian Retail Market September 2011, Deliotte, Winning
in India’s Retail Sector, PwC, Aranca Research
Investment options in organised retail IndiaRetail component of real estate is an attractive opportunity
which is currently attracting 29 per cent of total investment
in real estate
26 per cent of the overall investors are interested in
investing in Tier II and III cities
Training and warehouse spacing are the other viable
options for investments
29%
26%
20%
10% 8%
4% 3%
Currentrealestate
values
TierII&IIItowns
Trained
manpower
Customised
warehousing
space
IT
Supplychain
management
Moreretail
research
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Migration trend towards urban areas
(Urban population as share of total) (2011)
Employment opportunities, increased urban amenities and
better lifestyle opportunities are attracting rural population
towards cities for better life style every year
In 2011, the urban-rural migration was at 33.0 per cent, up
from 27.8 per cent in 2010
This could be a major driver for the organised retail sector in
future as the working population would consequently
increase
17.3% 18.0%
19.9%
23.3%
25.7%
27.8% 33.0%
1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
Source: KPMG International 2011, Aranca Research
Reliance Industries
Limited
• Partnership arrangement with Marks & Spencer to open 50 stores
• Exclusive franchise agreement with Hamley’s to open 20 Hamley’s toy stores with an
investment of USD26 million in April 2010
Future Group • Partnership with Clarks International UK to sell premium footwear label
RPG Group • Partnership with Chad Valley, UK (owned by Woolworths plc.) to offer its range of toys
through standalone exclusive stores and shop-in-shop formats within the same layout
DLF Group • Mother care plc partnered with DLF Brands Ltd for maternity clothing, baby clothes and
nursery items
Tata Group
• Tesco signed a deal worth USD115 million with the retail arm of Tata Group, wherein the
former will supply products, services and expertise to the latter’s hypermarket business
Star Bazaar
Source: Bloomberg and Thomson ONE Banker, Aranca Research
Acquirer Name Target Name Year Deal Type
Future Venture India Ltd Big Apple (convenience store) Sep 2012 Acquisition
Peter England Ltd Pantaloons Retail India Ltd Sep 2012 Acquisition
Pantaloons Retail India Ltd R&R salons May 2012 Private Equity
Phoenix Mills Ltd Classic Housing Projects Pvt Ltd March 2012 Acquisition
Flipkart online services Pvt Ltd eTree Marketing Pvt Ltd February 2012 Acquisition
Gitanjali Gems Ltd Crown Aim, China December 2011 Acquisition
Shoppers Stop Ltd Gateway Multichannel Retail India Ltd June 2011 Acquisition
TTK Prestige Ltd Triveni Bialetti Pvt Ltd September 2011 Acquisition
TV18 On-graph Technologies Pvt Ltd July 2011 Acquisition
Pantaloons Retail India Ltd Home Solutions Retail(India) Ltd August 2010 Acquisition
Shoppers Stop Ltd HyperCITY Retail India Pvt Ltd (hypermarket) June 2010 Acquisition
TPG Capital, Bain Capital Lilliput Kidswear Ltd (branded kidswear retail) April 2010 Private Equity
Retailers Association of India
111/112, Ascot Centre,
Next to Hotel Le Royal Meridien, Sahar Road, Sahar,
Andheri (E),
Mumbai – 400099.
Tel: 91- 22 - 28269527 - 28
Fax: 91- 22- 28269536
E-mail: info@rai.net.in
Website: www.rai.net.in
The Franchising Association of India
A-13, Kailash Colony
New Delhi – 110048
Tel: 91- 11- 2923 5332
Fax: 91- 11- 2923 3145
Website: www.fai.co.in
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods
FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March)
So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010
IT: Information Technology
MoU: Memorandum of Understanding
MT: Million tonnes
MTPA: Million tonnes per annum
SEZ: Special Economic Zone
USD: US Dollar
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
Year INR equivalent of one US$
2004-05 44.95
2005-06 44.28
2006-07 45.28
2007-08 40.24
2008-09 45.91
2009-10 47.41
2010-11 45.57
2011-12 47.94
2012-13 54.31
Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year)
Year INR equivalent of one US$
2005 45.55
2006 44.34
2007 39.45
2008 49.21
2009 46.76
2010 45.32
2011 45.64
2012 54.69
2013 54.45
Exchange Rates (Calendar Year)
Average for the year
India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared
by Aranca in consultation with IBEF.
All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The
same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium
by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in
any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF.
This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this
presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the
content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice.
Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in
this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of
any reliance placed on this presentation.
Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on
the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.

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India : Retail Sector Report_August 2013

  • 1.
  • 3. Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Policy support Rising income and demand for quality products to boost consumer expenditure Indian retail one of the fastest growing markets in the world due to economic growth Favourable government policies to boost investor confidence and thereby investments across modern retail formats Consumer expenditure estimated to be USD3.6 trillion by 2025 vis-à-vis USD1.0 trillion in 2010 Retail market in India to reach USD866 billion by 2015 from the current USD516 billion Modern retail market to expand to USD88.3 billion by 2015 from USD40.5 billion in 2012 40.5 88.3 2012 2015E Indian modern retail market size (USD billion) 516 866 2012 2015E Indian retail market size (USD billion) 1 3.6 2010 2020E India consumption expenditure (USD trillion) CAGR: 13.6% CAGR: 18.8% CAGR: 29.6%
  • 4. Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research Note: CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Policy support Robust consumption, rural markets to augment FMCG market Increasing participation from foreign and private players to boost retail infrastructure Rising number of tier-2 and tier-3 cities to enhance supermarket space in the country FMCG market expected to increase to USD100 billion by 2025 from USD12 billion in 2006 Modern retail stores projected to reach 67,100 by 2016 from 11,192 in 2006 Supermarkets to total 8,500 by 2016 from 500 in 2006 500 8,500 2006 2016E Supermarkets in India 11,192 67,100 2006 2016E Modern retail formats (store counts) 12 100 2006 2025E FMCG market in India (USD billions) CAGR: 7.6% CAGR: 19.6% CAGR: 32.8%
  • 5. • The engineering sector is delicensed; 100 per cent FDI is allowed in the sector • Due to policy support, there was cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into the sector over April 2000 – February 2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total FDI into the country in that period Growing demand Source: Technopak; Aranca Research Notes: SITP - Scheme for Integrated Textile Park; FDI - Foreign Direct Investment, 2021 E - Estimated figure for 2020; ASEAN - Association of Southeast Asian Nations Demand potential • Rapid urbanisation with increasing purchasing power has led to growing demand; consumers have also become more brand conscious • The untapped rural market has high growth potential Innovation in Financing • Collective effort of financial houses and banks with retailers are providing strength to consumers to go for durable products with easy credit Policy support • 51 per cent FDI in multi brand retail • FDI up to 100 per cent in single brand retail and for cash and carry (wholesale) trading and exports • Introduction of Goods and Service Tax (GST) as a single unified tax system from next fiscal year Increasing investments • Foreign retailers are continuously entering the Indian market • Cumulative FDI inflow in retail for the period April 2000 – January 2013 was USD42.7 million; this is expected to increase further as 51 per cent FDI in multi brand retail is approved and limit is raised to 100 per cent in single brand retail 2012 Market Value: USD518 billion 2015E Market Value: USD869 billion Advantage India
  • 6. Source: Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd, Aranca Research • Manufacturers opened their own outlets • Pure play retailers realised the potential of the market • Most of them in apparel segment • Substantial investment commitments by large Indian corporate • Entry in food and general merchandise category • Pan-India expansion to top 100 cities • Repositioning by existing players Initiation Conceptualisation Expansion Consolidation • Large scale consolidation • Movement to smaller cities and rural areas • More than 5–6 players with revenues more than USD700 million • Large scale entry of international brands • FDI in single-brand retail up to 100 per cent from 51 per cent • Approval of FDI limit in multi-brand retail up to 51 per cent • Rise in private label brands by retail players • Increasing investments in retail infrastructure Pre 1990s 1990–05 2005–10 2010 onward
  • 7. Source: Aranca Research Notes: IT- Information Technology Mono/exclusive branded retail shops Multi-branded retail shops Convergence retail outlets Exclusive showrooms either owned or franchised out by a manufacturer Complete range available for a given brand, certified product quality Focus on particular product categories and carry most of the brands available Customers have more choices as many brands are on display Display most of convergence as well as consumer/electronic products, including communication and IT group One-stop shop for customers; many product lines of different brands on display e-Trailers It is an online shopping facility for buying and selling products and services; the facility is widely used for electronics, health and wellness Highly convenient as it provides 24X7 access, saves time, and ensures secure transaction
  • 8. Source: Aranca Research Grocery Food and beverage Department stores Pharmacy Books, music and gifts RETAIL
  • 9. Source: Company websites, KPMG, Aranca Research Departmental stores Hypermarkets Supermarkets/ Convenience stores Specialty stores Cash & Carry stores • Pantaloon has 65 stores • Trent operates 59 stores • Shoppers Stop has 51 stores • Reliance Retail has launched Trends in this format • Pantaloon Retail is the leader in this format with 160 Big Bazaar stores • HyperCITY (4 stores), Trent, Spencer’s (Spencer Hyper), Aditya Birla Retail (additional 14 stores) and Reliance are other players • Aditya Birla Retail (additional 509 stores) • Spencer’s (Daily, 220 stores) • Reliance Fresh (458 stores) • REI 6Ten (350 stores) are the major players in this format • Titan Industries is a large player, with 320 World of Titan, 130 Tanishq and 177 Titan Eye+ shops • Vijay Sales, Croma and E- Zone are into consumer electronics • Landmark, and Crossword focus on books and gifts • Metro started the cash-and-carry model in India; the company operates five stores across Mumbai, Kolkata, Hyderabad and Bangalore • Bharti Walmart started its cash- and-carry outlets in 2011 Retail
  • 10. Source: KPMG International 2011, Aranca Research Multiple franchisee model Rural retailing Collaborative model for international products Vertical integration Collaboration for back-end resource sharing Increasing market reach Innovation in new retail formats Direct sourcing arrangements Focus on private labels
  • 11. Source: KPMG International, Aranca Research Offering discounts • Most retailers have advanced off-season sales from 15 days to a month with discounts ranging from 20-70 per cent on certain products • Higher discounts and other value added services for members Lowering prices • Certain retailers adopt ‘First Price Right’ approach. Retailers do not offer discounts under this strategy – they directly compete on the selling price by offering a best price without any markdowns Offering value-added services • Companies offer innovative value added services such as customer loyalty programmes, happy hours on shopping deals • Offers for senior citizens, contests for students, and lottery gains are now very common Leveraging partnerships • In order to keep customers on shop floors for a longer time and increase conversions, retailers are now pitching to partner with manufacturers, service providers, financial companies, etc. to create a buzz around certain product categories
  • 12. Source: Deloitte, indiaretailing.com, Economist Intelligence Unit, Euro monitor, Aranca Research Market size over the past few years (USD billion)The retail sector in India is emerging as one of the largest sectors in the economy By 2012, the total market size reached USD518 billion, thereby registering a CAGR of 7.0 per cent since 1998 201 204 238 278 321 368 424 518 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 CAGR: 7.0%
  • 13. Source: Indian Retail Market September 2011, Deliotte, Aranca Research Market break-up by revenues (2012)In 2012, ‘Food and Grocery’ accounted for nearly 60.0 per cent of total revenues in the retail sector followed by Apparel (8.0 per cent) In 2011, 48 per cent of total household income in India was spent on food and groceries Demand for Western outfits and readymade garments has been growing at 40-45 per cent annually; apparel penetration is expected to increase to 30-35 per cent by 2015 60% 8% 6% 5% 4% 3% 3% 11% Food & Grocery Appareal Mobile and telecom Food service Jewellery Consumer Electronics Pharmacy Others
  • 14. Source: indiaretailing.com, E&Y Report, Aranca Research Orgainsed retail penetration (2012) Organised Retail Penetration (ORP) in India is low (8 per cent) compared to other countries such as the US (85 per cent) This indicates strong growth potential for organised retail in India Contribution to organised retail (2012) 92% 8% Unorganised retail penetration Organised retail penetration 11% 33% 11% 7% 6% 8% 4% 20% Food & Grocery Appareal Mobile and telecom Food service Jewellery Consumer Electronics Footwear Others
  • 15. Source: indiaretailing.com, Deloitte report, Winning in India’s Retail Sector, Aranca Research Notes: ‘Mom-and-pop’ stores are small stores that are typically owned and run by members of a family Significant scope for expansion in organised retailIndian retail market is in its nascent stage; unorganised players control the market with 92 per cent market share during 2012 There are over 12 million mom-and-pop stores Organised retail is expected to account for 20 per cent of the overall retail market by 2020 92% 80% 8% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 2020 Unorganised retail penetration Organised retail penetration
  • 16. 500 4,000 2006 2011 40 300 2006 2011 10,000 30,000 2006 2011 2 30 2006 2011 Hypermarkets – Number of storesSupermarkets – Number of stores Speciality stores – Number of stores Cash and carry – Number of stores Source: indiaretailing.com, Aranca Research
  • 17. Source: Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd, Cushman & Wakefield Research Note: * - NCR, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai, ** - Bangalore, Pune, Hyderabad and Ahmadabad Additional mall space requirement by 2013-14 (million sq feet) Grocery sales growth across countries (2010) 18.4% 12.4% 11.1% 10% 3% 2% 0% India China Russia Brazil UK USA Japan 45 21 Top 4 Cities* Next Four Cities** Source: IGD International: Indian Retail Forum presentation - 2010
  • 18. Source: Technopak Advisors Pvt Ltd, Cushman & Wakefield Research Break-up of all mall space by format (2013-14)India’s ‘Grocery’ retail segment is the most attractive in the world Hypermarkets would be the largest retail segment, accounting for 21 per cent of total retail space by 2013–14 21% 19% 14% 10% 8% 9% 8% 6% 3% 1% Hypermarkets Apparel stores Multiplexes, gaming & food court Department stores Footwear stores Restaurants& fastfood outlets Mobile stores Super markets Jewellary& time wear outlets Pharmacy outlets
  • 19. Source: Indian Retail Market September 2011, Aranca Analysis India is ranked fifth in the Global Retail Development Index in 2012 India’s strong growth fundamentals along with increased urbanisation and consumerism opened immense scope for retail expansion for foreign players Recent government reforms for attracting FDI and boosting investor sentiment Rapid emergence of organised retail outlets like mega malls and hypermarkets are augmenting the growth of organised retail in the country Constant improvements in supply chains and logistics by retailers for competitive advantage and meeting consumer demands
  • 20. Source: A.T.Kearney 2011 Global Retail Development Report, Aranca Analysis India ranks sixth in the 2011 Global Apparel IndexIndia ranks fifth in the 2012 Global Retail Development Index 61.4% 58.9% 48.6% 46.4% 43.9% 42.0% 40.1% 37.4% 37.3% 36.9% China UAE Kuwait Russia Saudi Arabia India Brazil Turkey Vietnam Chile 73.8% 65.3% 63.8% 63.1% 60.8% 60.6% 60.6% 58.9% 58.5%58.0%
  • 21. Source: A.T.Kearney 2012 FDI Confidence Index, Aranca Analysis Note: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment; * - The FDI Confidence Index assesses the impact of political, economic and regulatory changes on FDI preferences FDI Confidence Index 2012India has occupied a remarkable position in global retail rankings; the country has high market potential, low economic risk, and moderate political risk In market potential, India ranks second after Brazil Net retail sales in India is also quite significant among emerging and developed nations; the country is ranked third after China and Brazil From an overall perspective, given its high growth potential, India scores well among foreign investors compared to global economy peers; for example, in the FDI Confidence Index* 2012, India ranks second, up from third position in 2010 1.52 1.52 1.52 1.6 1.73 1.87 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 United States Germany Australia Brazil India China
  • 22. Source: 2012 Global Retail Development Index - AT Kearney, Aranca Research Note: GRDI - Global Retail Development Index 2012 GRDI country attractiveness in retail investment
  • 23. Source: MasterCard Worldwide Insights 4Q 2010, Aranca Research Notes: APMEA - Asia/ Pacific, Middle East and Africa E-commerce industry in India (USD billion) E-commerce is expected to be the next major area for retail growth in India. The industry is projected to increase from USD70 billion in 2011 to USD200 billion in 2020 With growth in the E-commerce industry, online retail is estimated to reach USD70 billion by 2020 from USD0.6 billion in 2011 Online retail in India (USD billion) 0.6 70 2011 2020E Online retail in India (USD billions) 10 200 2011 2020E E-commerce industry in India (USD billions)
  • 24. Source: MasterCard Worldwide Insights 4Q 2010, Aranca Research Notes: APMEA - Asia/ Pacific, Middle East and Africa APMEA Master card regional online shopping indexThe key drivers for growing importance of online retail are a young population aided by easier access to credit and payment options; increasing internet penetration and speed, 24-hour accessibility, convenient and secured transactions Computer peripherals, camera and mobiles, and lifestyle segments account for a majority of total purchases 65 70 25 21 25 28 65 62 30 31 30 33 63 57 38 32 29 36 0 20 40 60 80 South Korea Japan China India Hong Kong Global Index 2008 2009 2010
  • 25. Source: Aranca Research Favourable demographics Rise in income and purchasing power Change in consumer mindset Easy consumer credit and increase in quality products Brand consciousness
  • 26. Source: Aranca Research 1991 1997 2006 2008 2012 Liberalisation: FDI up to 51 per cent allowed under the automatic route in select priority sectors FDI up to 100 per cent allowed under the automatic route in Cash & Carry (wholesale) Government proposed introducing FDI in multi-brand retail (2008); follows up in 2012 by approving plan to raise the FDI limit to 51 per cent FDI up to 51 per cent allowed with prior government approval in single-brand retail Government approved 51 per cent FDI in multi-brand retail and increased FDI limit to 100 per cent (from 51 per cent) in single brand retail
  • 27. Increase in employment Infrastructure Investment Removing middlemen Benefiting Indian manufacturers Benefits of FDI in Indian retail FDI limitSector Entry route Whole sale cash and carry trading Single brand product retailing Multi brand, front end retail 100% 100% 51% Automatic Foreign Investment and Promotion Board Foreign Investment and Promotion Board
  • 28. 51% FDI in multi - brand retail Status: Policy passed 100% FDI in single brand retail Status: Policy passed • Minimum investment cap is USD100 million • 30 per cent procurement of manufactured or processed products must be from SMEs • Minimum 50 per cent of total FDI must be invested in back-end infrastructure (logistics, cold storage, soil testing labs, seed farming and agro-processing units) • Removes the middlemen and provides a better price to farmers • Development in the retail supply chain system • 50 per cent of the jobs in the retail outlet could be reserved for rural youth and a certain amount of farm produce could be required to be procured from poor farmers • To ensure the Public Distribution System (PDS) and Food Security System (FSS), government reserves the right to procure a certain amount of food grains • Multi brand retail would keep food and commodity prices under control • Will cut agricultural waste as mega retailers would develop backend infrastructure • Consumers will receive higher quality products at lower prices and better service • Products to be sold under the same brand internationally • Sale of multi brand goods is not allowed, even if produced by the same manufacturer • For FDI above 51 per cent, 30 per cent sourcing must be from SMEs • Consumerism of the retail market • Any additional product categories to be sold under single brand retail must first receive additional government approval
  • 29. Source: Aranca Research Goods and Service Tax (GST) System changes and transition management • Changes need to be made to accounting and IT systems in order to record transactions in line with GST requirements • Appropriate measures need to be taken to ensure smooth transition to the GST regime – through employee training, compliance under GST, customer education and inventory credit tracking Supply chain structure • Introduction of Goods and Service Tax (GST) as a unified tax regime will lead to a re-evaluation of procurement and distribution arrangements • Removal of excise duty on products would result in cash flow improvements Cash flow • Tax refunds on goods purchased for resale implies a significant reduction in the inventory cost of distribution • Distributors are also expected to experience cash flow from collection of GST in their sales, before remitting it to the government at the end of the tax- filing period Pricing and profitability • Elimination of tax cascading is expected to lower input costs and improve profitability • Application of tax at all points of supply chain is likely to require adjustments to profit margins, especially for distributors and retailers
  • 30. Source: Aranca Research Multiple drivers are leading to strong growth in Indian retail through a ‘consumption boom’ Significant growth in discretionary income and changing lifestyles are counted among the major growth drivers of Indian retail Easy availability of credit and use of ‘plastic money’ have contributed to a strong and growing consumer culture in India Increasing acceptance and usage of e-trailers by consumers due to convenience and secured financial transactions Expansion in the size of the upper middle class and advertisement has led to greater spending on luxury products and high brand consciousness
  • 31. Source: IMF, Aranca Research Rising per capita income in IndiaReal income growth projections 4.6% 6.9% 7.6% 9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 6.2% 6.8% 10.6% 7.2% 7.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F Per capita income,USD Annual growth rate Source: IMF, Aranca Research
  • 32. Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research Future Retail sales growth (USD billion)Revenues expanded at a robust CAGR of 22.7 per cent during FY08-12 FY12 revenues stood at USD2.7 billion Hypermarket and supermarket formats have a network of more than 315 stores encompassing an area of over 11 million square feet. Under Future Fashion, the company owns a portfolio of 24 leading brands and covers more than 121 cities 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.7 2.7 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 CAGR: 22.7%
  • 33. Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research Note: msf - Million Square Feet Has a good understanding of the Indian retail sector and its customers Future Retail Ltd (FY12) • Revenue: USD2.7 billion • Operational retail space:16.3 msf • Over 1000 stores in 121 cities • Employees: 36,000 Ground-up Development The Right JV’s at the Right Time Winning Team Versatile Retailing Multiple Formats, Multiple Brands-A Comprehensive Retail Experiment Pantaloon Retail Success factors
  • 34. Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research Note: First Citizen Loyalty Programme is a membership scheme for its members to avail discounts and promotional offers Shoppers Stop business format (2011)The company owns 172 stores in 25 cities with 4.81 million sq ft space across eight store formats Successfully introduced a number of international brands Improved product mix and brand profiles to attract new customers Over 2.5 million customers are a part of the First Citizen Loyalty Programme 77% 21% 2% SS Department Stores Business Subsidiary Companies JV Companies
  • 35. Non Apparels 35% Apparels 65% Non Apparels 41% Apparels 59% FY 05 FY 11 Shoppers Stop (apparel, accessories, footwear, jewelry and décor) Homestop (home furnishing) Crossword (Books and other entertainement) Mothercare (infant and toddler care) Estee Lauder, Mac and Clinique (Beauty) Shoppers Stop (Brands and JVs) 276.5 284.7 307.8 491.0 581.7 583.8 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 Shoppers Stop’s diversified portfolioShoppers Stop’s sales growth (USD million) Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research CAGR: 16.1%
  • 36. Average selling price (INR)Footfalls (in million) Source: Company Annual Report, Business India - March 2013, Aranca Research Average transaction size (INR)Members ('000) 1,720 1,843 2,029 2,311 2,321 2,443 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13 759 821 856 913 977 1,081 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13 1,013 1,277 1,611 2,017 2,503 2,799 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9MFY13 24.9 22.3 23.3 31.0 36.7 29.7 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 9M13
  • 37. Source: KPMG International 2011, Aranca Research DemandFactors Higher brand consciousness Growing young population and working women Rising incomes and purchasing power Changing consumer preferences and growing urbanisation Indian Retail Opportunity Rapid real estate and infrastructure development Development of supply chain improving efficiency Easy availability of credit R&D, innovation and new product development SupplyFactors
  • 38. Source: Aranca Research Notes: FMCG - Fast Moving Consumer Goods Large number of retail outlets • India is the fifth largest preferred retail destination globally • The sector is experiencing exponential growth, with retail development taking place not just in major cities and metros, but also in Tier-II and Tier-III cities Rural markets offer significant growth potential • FMCG players are focusing on rural market as it constitutes over 33 per cent of FMCG consumer base in India • With increasing investment in infrastructure, retailers will be able to increase their access to high-growth potential rural market Private label opportunities • The organised Indian retail industry has begun experiencing an increased level of activity in the private label space • Private label strategy is likely to play a dominant role as its share in the US and the UK markets is 19 per cent and 39 per cent, respectively while its share in India is just 6 per cent Sourcing base • India‘s price competitiveness attracts large retail players to use it as a sourcing base • Global retailers such as Walmart, GAP, Tesco and JC Penney are increasing their sourcing from India and are moving from third-party buying offices to establishing their own wholly-owned/wholly-managed sourcing and buying offices
  • 39. Source: Indian Retail Market September 2011, Deliotte, Winning in India’s Retail Sector, PwC, Aranca Research Investment options in organised retail IndiaRetail component of real estate is an attractive opportunity which is currently attracting 29 per cent of total investment in real estate 26 per cent of the overall investors are interested in investing in Tier II and III cities Training and warehouse spacing are the other viable options for investments 29% 26% 20% 10% 8% 4% 3% Currentrealestate values TierII&IIItowns Trained manpower Customised warehousing space IT Supplychain management Moreretail research
  • 40. Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research Migration trend towards urban areas (Urban population as share of total) (2011) Employment opportunities, increased urban amenities and better lifestyle opportunities are attracting rural population towards cities for better life style every year In 2011, the urban-rural migration was at 33.0 per cent, up from 27.8 per cent in 2010 This could be a major driver for the organised retail sector in future as the working population would consequently increase 17.3% 18.0% 19.9% 23.3% 25.7% 27.8% 33.0% 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011
  • 41. Source: KPMG International 2011, Aranca Research Reliance Industries Limited • Partnership arrangement with Marks & Spencer to open 50 stores • Exclusive franchise agreement with Hamley’s to open 20 Hamley’s toy stores with an investment of USD26 million in April 2010 Future Group • Partnership with Clarks International UK to sell premium footwear label RPG Group • Partnership with Chad Valley, UK (owned by Woolworths plc.) to offer its range of toys through standalone exclusive stores and shop-in-shop formats within the same layout DLF Group • Mother care plc partnered with DLF Brands Ltd for maternity clothing, baby clothes and nursery items Tata Group • Tesco signed a deal worth USD115 million with the retail arm of Tata Group, wherein the former will supply products, services and expertise to the latter’s hypermarket business Star Bazaar
  • 42. Source: Bloomberg and Thomson ONE Banker, Aranca Research Acquirer Name Target Name Year Deal Type Future Venture India Ltd Big Apple (convenience store) Sep 2012 Acquisition Peter England Ltd Pantaloons Retail India Ltd Sep 2012 Acquisition Pantaloons Retail India Ltd R&R salons May 2012 Private Equity Phoenix Mills Ltd Classic Housing Projects Pvt Ltd March 2012 Acquisition Flipkart online services Pvt Ltd eTree Marketing Pvt Ltd February 2012 Acquisition Gitanjali Gems Ltd Crown Aim, China December 2011 Acquisition Shoppers Stop Ltd Gateway Multichannel Retail India Ltd June 2011 Acquisition TTK Prestige Ltd Triveni Bialetti Pvt Ltd September 2011 Acquisition TV18 On-graph Technologies Pvt Ltd July 2011 Acquisition Pantaloons Retail India Ltd Home Solutions Retail(India) Ltd August 2010 Acquisition Shoppers Stop Ltd HyperCITY Retail India Pvt Ltd (hypermarket) June 2010 Acquisition TPG Capital, Bain Capital Lilliput Kidswear Ltd (branded kidswear retail) April 2010 Private Equity
  • 43. Retailers Association of India 111/112, Ascot Centre, Next to Hotel Le Royal Meridien, Sahar Road, Sahar, Andheri (E), Mumbai – 400099. Tel: 91- 22 - 28269527 - 28 Fax: 91- 22- 28269536 E-mail: info@rai.net.in Website: www.rai.net.in The Franchising Association of India A-13, Kailash Colony New Delhi – 110048 Tel: 91- 11- 2923 5332 Fax: 91- 11- 2923 3145 Website: www.fai.co.in
  • 44. FDI: Foreign Direct Investment FMCG: Fast Moving Consumer Goods FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March) So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010 IT: Information Technology MoU: Memorandum of Understanding MT: Million tonnes MTPA: Million tonnes per annum SEZ: Special Economic Zone USD: US Dollar Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
  • 45. Year INR equivalent of one US$ 2004-05 44.95 2005-06 44.28 2006-07 45.28 2007-08 40.24 2008-09 45.91 2009-10 47.41 2010-11 45.57 2011-12 47.94 2012-13 54.31 Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year) Year INR equivalent of one US$ 2005 45.55 2006 44.34 2007 39.45 2008 49.21 2009 46.76 2010 45.32 2011 45.64 2012 54.69 2013 54.45 Exchange Rates (Calendar Year) Average for the year
  • 46. India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by Aranca in consultation with IBEF. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.