ICOS Science Conference, Session 2

1. Publications:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.13614 Liu et al., Nature Communications, in review
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.07690 Liu et al., Nature Scientific data, in review
Publicly available data, graphics, methods:
https://carbonmonitor.org
https://carbonmonitor.org.cn
Carbon Monitor: near real time monitoring of daily CO2 emissions
Zhu Liu1*†, Philippe Ciais2†, Zhu Deng1†, Ruixue Lei3, Steven J. Davis4, Sha Feng3, Bo Zheng2, Duo Cui1, Xinyu Dou1, Biqing
Zhu1, Rui Guo1, Piyu Ke1, Taochun Sun1, Chenxi Lu1, Pan He1, Yuan Wang5,6, Xu Yue7, Yilong Wang8, Yadong Lei9 , Hao Zhou9,
Zhaonan Cai10, Yuhui Wu11, Runtao Guo12, Tingxuan Han13, Jinjun Xue14, 15, 16, Olivier Boucher17, Eulalie Boucher17, Frédéric
Chevallier2, Katsumasa Tanaka2,27, Yimin Wei18, Haiwang Zhong19, Chongqing Kang19, Ning Zhang20, Bin Chen21, Fengming
Xi22, Miaomiao Liu23, François-Marie Bréon2, Yonglong Lu24, Qiang Zhang1, Dabo Guan1, Peng Gong1, Daniel M. Kammen25,
Kebin He11 and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber26,1
1

2. Aircraft and ship tracks
Pipeline delivery of gas to residential & commercial
buildings
Traffic & mobility data from city to county scale
Hourly to daily electricity data
Including fossil & low carbon mix
Near real time weather
data
Hourly or daily activity data related to C emissions in different sectors

3. CO2 emissions operational analysis system for six sub-sectors
3

4. Examples of real daily emissions data driven models
Per city traffic emission modeling from congestion & mobility
Congestion index is NOT proportional to emissions
Hourly electricity mix and fuel types covarying with production
captures daily fuel mix changes affecting emissions
e.g. low gas price effects -> reduced coal electricity in the U.S. in 2020
Per flight aircraft emissions per country
( domestic and international separated)
Aircraft type included in dataset
Hourly natural gas residential supply for
heating and cooking
4

5. www.carbonmonitor.org www.carbonmonitor.org.cn
5
Start of lockdown

6. 6
• Daily emission estimates reveal all
variations caused by energy price,
weather, climate, weekends and
holidays and COVID-19
• Sharp drops during holidays
• Decrease of 8.8% of global emissions by
July 1st
• Return to pre-COVID levels in China and
some EU countries
• Our data compare within 2-% with
preliminary IEA energy statistics
Liu et al. in review Nature Communication
Liu et al. in review Nature Scientific data
2020 reduction and more

7. 7
Sectorial differences of COVID-19 induced CO2 emissions reductions
Liu et al. in review Nature Communication
Liu et al. in review Nature Scientific data

8. 8
Zoom on the power sector (2) – shift in the diurnal cycle
• Warm weather reduced demand in US
even before the COVID
• In the US : Increase of gas, large decrease
of coal, decreased nuclear
• In Europe : Decreased gas and coal, strong
increase of wind in Feb, increase in solar in
April & May, slight increase of nuclearBiqing Zhu et al. in prep. Do not cite or reproduce

9. Combining Carbon Monitor with daily atmospheric inversions
9
TROPOMI Sentinel-5P spaceborne NO2 observations :
industry emissions snapping back in China after April

10. Next release : daily industrial emissions in each country aggregated from facility level data
Steelworks site in France (dotted
white) with blast furnaces (blue)
High heat, Low heat
February 9, 2020 April 8, 2020
Industrial facilities and sub-facilities level daily
activity using high-resolution satellite imagery
(Sentinel-2 thermal bands and VHR imagery)
Idled furnace
10

11. 11
Next steps : daily mobility data enhanced with SAR radar & cell phone app data

12. Regional and global CH4 emissions from Oil & Gas
TROPOMI CH4 data combined with very high
resolution activity imagery ( Permian area)
12

13. 13
Thank you for your attention