ICOS Science Conference, Session 8

1. A VISION FOR A 21ST CENTURY
INTEGRATED OCEAN CARBON
OBSERVING SYSTEM
Richard Sanders, Andrew Watson and Ute Schuster
ICOS Ocean Thematic Centre

2. 29%
11.6 GtCO2/yr
Without this ‘sink’ Climate Change would be happening much faster and our response
would need to be faster, larger and more expensive
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton and Nassikas 2017; Hansis et al 2015; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
22%
8.9 GtCO2/yr
34.4 GtCO2/yr
87%
13%
5.3 GtCO2/yr
17.3 GtCO2/yr
44%
5%
1.9 GtCO2/yr
Budget
Imbalance:
The Ocean take up about 20% of the C we release to the atmosphere

3. Significant acceleration of uptake in early 2000s
Cause uncertain although much debated
The future behavior of the ocean sink will affect
• The size and timing of GHG emission reductions
• The size and timing of any negative emissions
technologies we need to deploy
• The cost of all of the above
If the ocean sink were to decline tomorrow how would
we know?
Early warning gives us maximum time to modify our
current plans
This ocean service has not always occurred at todays rate
Adapted from “BAMS State
of Climate Report 2018”

4. We have the tools to do the job
Vassilis Kitidis, PML, U.K.
Definitive study of N Sea published in
2020
2015 net atmospheric influx was 26.2
± 4.7 Tg C y-1)
What is happening now?

5. We have the tools to do the job
• Macovei et al, (2020)
Progress in Oceanography.
• Local Strengthening of sink in
NE Atlantic over last 2
decades
• Ship no longer operating,
what is happening now?

6. New Tools are coming on stream to
improve data quality and reduce costs
• Saildrone autonomous systems to
calibrate ocean buoys and sample
hard to reach systems
• Biogeochemical Argo Floats
• In water measurements of ocean pH
in remote areas
No one tool can do the job alone

7. We have a demonstrated ability to routinely
measure the Ocean C sink, and to reduce costs
and increase data flow via new technology
• Most of the pieces exist now – no need
to reinvent the wheel
• Linking them together offers the
potential of an early warning system
around change in Ocean C sink
• Early warning of changes reduces costs
associated with
• Accelerating emission reductions
• Altering negative emission technology plans
• But the key ‘research infrastructures’
this depends on are not stable
• The N Sea study was supported by
short duration project funding and took 5
years to be published
• The key ship operating across the
Atlantic ceased operations due to lack
of funding
• Our ability to observe the ocean is
degrading

8. ICOS Survey of Funding
Sustainability of Stations 2020-
2023
• From this year around 75% of stations do not have enough
investment going into them.
• In 2 years time, around half the stations will have inadequate
running costs and people
• These are the basic data we use to quantify the (changing?) role
of the ocean in the global C cycle.

9. Funding sustainability of the environmental
in situ observing networks in Europe
https://insitu.copernicus.eu/news/funding-sustainability-of-
the-environmental-in-situ-observing-networks-in-europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Meteorological (n=122) Atmospheric
Composition (n=20)
Ocean (n=91)
Funding Source
Institutional funds
External Funds (National/ EU Research projects/ Other Funds)
68
30 2827
40
52
3
7
2
30
9
4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Meteorological (n=122) Atmospheric
Composition (n=20)
Ocean (n=91)
Sustainability
Sustained funding
Some near term uncertainty
No Current but expect some soon
Severe funding problems
Uncertain

10. Summary Points
• Only around 30% of ocean and atmospheric composition in situ observations have sustained
institutional funding, while the remaining part is dependent on external funding primarily linked
to research funds (national or EU) with the degree of uncertainty and time limitation that this
implies.
• The relatively high degree of sustained institutional funding for meteorological observations
clearly reflects the way the meteorological community is organised.
• In general in each country there is one dedicated meteorological service with national
responsibilities and international commitments to contribute to the global meteorological
observation network under WMO (World Meteorological Organization).
• The clear difference in the funding sustainability in the meteorological, ocean and atmospheric
composition communities reflects the fact that the ocean and atmospheric composition
communities, as opposed to the meteorological community, do not have the same national and
international commitments to monitor the environment on a regular and operational basis, a
majority of their observations are linked to research activities.
https://insitu.copernicus.eu/news/funding-sustainability-of-
the-environmental-in-situ-observing-networks-in-europe

11. Our ambition
• To build an operational end to end system of existing systems capable of
delivering the ‘Ocean Carbon Moonshot’
• An annual, databased estimate of ocean C uptake delivered to the COP, each
year, every year to support decision making.
• Step 1. Define the system; how many ships, how many sections, how many
gliders, how many floats, how many autonomous surface vessels, which satellites,
what data centres, where, how often, who?
• Step 2. Work with funding agencies to transfer support for the individual elements
away from current research funding streams to operational funding streams similar
to those which support meteorological operations
• In the same way that we need meteorological observations to forecast weather, we
need ocean carbon observations to forecast climate

12. We invite all interested agencies, NGOs
and private donors to support this dream
• ‘Workshop of the willing’ to define the plan; Summer 2021
• Ship operators, satellite operators, datacentres, float operators, funding
agencies, philanthropists, oceanography centres, met offices etc, etc
• Publish plan in late 2021, broken down into bitesized chunks
• Present plan at COP in 2021 and secure funding commitments for long term
support
• Launch system in 2022
• First annual databased estimate of Ocean C uptake in 2023
‘Together we can build an integrated ocean carbon observing system’

13. Return on
Investment
• We know the ocean C sink is valuable
• 2.5 GT C x 100$/ tonne air capture cost estimated in
10 years time = 0.25 Tn $/ yr to replicate ocean sink
• But how much is extra information about its behaviour
that comes from research worth?
• If sink increases, need fewer emission controls, if sink
declines need more
• It depends on how uncertain we are about its size and
future behaviour – things we don’t know well
• But: estimated that the value of a long term research
programme into a comparable ocean flux is 0.025
Trillion dollars per year (25 billion dollars per year).
• If cost is 250 million per year then ROI is about 100
fold
• In 2014 the total cost to run the entire NOAA
Observing system was about 500 million dollars

14. One component of the ‘digital ocean’
Pollution Nature based
solutions
Energy – offshore wind Energy - Fisheries/
Aquaculture
Climate EDnA
New Technology – to make
the digital ocean operate faster
Observing Systems to gather
data in real time from diverse
platforms
Data Products for decision
makers, assimilation,
validation
Links to end users, building a
legacy Industry, Regulators, Spatial Planners
Data aggregators/ Centres
Research Infrastructures/ Satellites
Technology Clusters/ linked to Research Institutes
Near realtime information on ocean health and functioning from multiple
platforms to support evidence based decision making

15. Summary/ Conclusions
• The Ocean takes up about 25% of the C we emit to the atmosphere, a service worth around
0.25 Tn $/ yr.
• It is not constant and in the recent past has changed substantially,
• Were it to do so again we might need to reduce emissions faster/ burn less fossil fuel or
devise and implement new geoengineering schemes all of which would cost real money
• The costs will be lower the sooner we detect change, we have a proven capacity to deliver
the early warning system needed
• However it is currently not operational, 75% of ocean observations are funded in research
rather than operational mode – a step change in funding is required
• We propose the construction of a fully operational Ocean Carbon Observing System as part
of the ‘digital ocean’ and invite the community to join us in creating a blueprint for this vision.
• The ROI of building such a system is estimated to be 50-100 fold.
• Further details at @OTCCO2