Similar to Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local - influence on the network load in an urban energy system (20)
2. 1 2 3 4 5
Agenda
03.07.2020 2
• Motivation
• Simulation Approach (Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo)
• TIMES Local: Model, Scenarios, Results
• Discussion and Summary
• References
Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
3. 1 2 3 4 5
Motivation
03.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local 3
Mobility / Transportation transition
Energy System Transition – „Energiewende“
Intelligent Charging/Loadmanagement
Load[kW]
Time
4
5
2
3
Source [6]
4. 1 2 3 4 5
Approach
03.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local 4
Goal: Analysis of the influence of Electromobility and Charging Strategies on the overall Energy System
Data Basis:
Empirical Study „Mobilität in Deutschland 2008“
Stochastic Simulation tool:
Mobility Load Curve
Simulation of Load Curve of charging infrastructure
Application in Energy System Model TIMES Load Curve of charging infrastructure
(Example)
ElectricLoad[kW]
Daytime of type-day
Load Curve of vehicle-kilometres
(Example)
Vehicle-kilometres
[km]
Daytime of type-day
Sources:
Liebhart (2017); Brodecki (2018); Klempp (2018); [7-9]
5. 1 2 3 4 5
Agenda
503.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
• Motivation
• Simulation Approach (Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo)
• TIMES Local: Model, Scenarios, Results
• Discussion and Summary
• References
6. 1 2 3 4 5
Study „Mobilität in Deutschland 2008“
6
Data Basis
03.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
• Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure (BMVI)
• 26 000 Households
• 193 000 Ways
• 121 Variables per Way
HH-ID P-ID W-ID Year Month Weekday KW Start Time End Time Purpose Origin Destination
Mean of
Transport
Distance
[km]
Duration
[min]
Speed
[km/h]
…
200811 1 1 2008 5 6 18 9:00:00 9:20:00 shopping At home Out of town car (driver) 14.25 20 42.75 …
200811 1 2 2008 5 6 18 10:00:00 10:30:00 home - At home car (driver) 14.25 30 28.5 ...
200811 1 3 2008 5 6 18 11:00:00 11:03:00 shopping - Within town car (driver) 2.85 3 57 …
200811 1 4 2008 5 6 18 11:27:00 11:30:00 home - At home car (driver) 2.85 3 57 …
200812 1 1 2008 8 7 31 13:30:00 14:30:00 Freetime activity At home Roundway On foot 1.96 60 1.96 …
… … … … … … … … … … … … … … … … …
Sources:
infas, 2010b; Liebhart (2017); [7,10]
7. 1 2 3 4 5
Simulation Tool - Concept
Simulation:
Mobility Load Curves
Simulation:
Load Curves of Charging
Infrastructure
Attributes of area:
• Inhabitants
• Season or month
• State / Type of region
Simulationparameters:
• Period (Day or week)
• Number of Households
• …
User Inputs
„Mobilität in
Deutschland“
2008
Simulationparameters:
• Share of electromobility [%]
• Battery Capacity per Vehicle [kWh]
• Electricity consumption [kWh/100km]
• Charging power per station [kW]
• Places electric car can be charged
• …
User Inputs
Load Curve of vehicle-kilometres
(Example)
Vehicle-kilometres[km]
Daytime of type-day
Load Curve of charging infrastructure
(Example)
ElectricLoad[kW]
Daytime of type-daySources:
Liebhart (2017); Brodecki (2018); Klempp (2018); [7-9]
8. 1 2 3 4 5
Mobility Load Curves - General structure
803.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
User Input Household- and Vehicletype simulation
START
Stochastic Calculations
State 0 1 ∑
0 0,6 0,4 1
1 0,2 0,8 1
Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo-Simulation
Veh.-Status Purpose Destination Speed
Repeat for each timeslice and vehicle
Generate daily profile
Vehicle-
kilometres
Daytime of type-day
Vehiclekilometres
Personkilometres
Generate weekly profiles
Hour index of type-day
Vehicle-
kilometres
Vehiclekilometres
Personkilometres
END
Simulationstool
Electric Load
Rep. for each
day of the
simulation
9. 1 2 3 4 5
Agenda
903.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
• Motivation
• Simulation Approach (Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo)
• TIMES Local: Model, Scenarios, Results
• Discussion and Summary
• References
10. 1 2 3 4 5
Decoupling of Charging cycle, storage and use of the electric vehicle
Availability of electromobility and charging profiles based on exogenously given users‘ behaviour
Coupling of consumers in commercial / housing sector and generation via Vehicle-to-grid
Implementation of Prosumers‘ behaviour patterns
10
Charging
Process
Battery Storage
in Hour 1
Distribution-
process
…
Battery Storage
in Hour 2
Battery Storage
in Hour 24
Electric vehicle
Storage-processes
Mobility
Demand
Charging Process
Technology =
Discharging
process
Distribution-
process
Photovoltaic in
Households
Source:
L. Brodecki (2018)
Photovoltaic in
Commercial
…
03.07.2020
11. 1 2 3 4 5
Decoupling of Charging cycle, storage and use of the electric vehicle
Availability of electromobility and charging profiles based on exogenously given users‘ behaviour
Coupling of consumers in commercial / housing sector and generation via Vehicle-to-grid
Implementation of Prosumers‘ behaviour patterns
11
Charging
Process
Battery Storage
in Hour 1
Distribution-
process
…
Battery Storage
in Hour 2
Battery Storage
in Hour 24
Electric vehicle
Storage-processes
Mobility
Demand
Charging Process
Technology =
Discharging
process
Distribution-
process
Photovoltaic in
Households
Source:
L. Brodecki (2018)
Photovoltaic in
Commercial
…
• Definition of a „tube“ for
charging of electromobility via
FLO_FRaction up/lo
0
0.01
FlowFraction
ofLoad
Charging[%]
FLO_FR UP FLO_FR LO
03.07.2020
12. 1 2 3 4 5
Model description TIMES Local
1203.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
TIMES Local: Stuttgart
Goal:
• Investigation of the
requirements for the
energy and transport
system in the Stuttgart
area due to increased
electromobility
• Influence of charging
strategies on the network
load in an urban energy
system
Source:
Lukasz Brodecki (2018)
13. 1 2 3 4 5
Scenario description TIMES Local
1303.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
General scenario framework:
• Linear optimization, bottom-up model
• Perfect foresight and perfect competition
• City of Stuttgart in Germany modelled as
one region
• Focus on supply and demand processes
relevant for a city/district model, all sectors
• Starting point 2010, 5-year-steps until 2050
• Hourly time resolution with 5
representative seasons (original seasons
plus fall peak) adding up to 840 timeslices,
• Endogen investment and dispatch in
eletrical, thermal sevices and mobility
technologies
• Extrapolation of local development based on statistical data
and Masterplan for the city of Stuttgart
• Emission mitigation argets until 2050 as yearly upper bound
(UB) -95% vs. 1990 with linear interpolation for timesteps
between target years
• Conservative development of the Modal Split
• No sufficiency measures
• Fast increase of market share of electromobility
KLIM
• Mitigation targets based on KLIM scenario
• Adjustment of mobility demand based on explicit
specifications in the Masterplan City of Stuttgart
• Compensation of decreasing demand in motorized private
transport via increasing demand in public transport
• Compensation of the declining commercial traffic through
partial shift to rail transport
KLIMPLUS
• Based on KLIMPLUS scenario
• delayed increase in market share of electric mobility
(xEV low)
KLIMPLUS
-
LOW
Based on [11]
14. 1 2 3 4 5
Charging behaviour of Electromobility and Strategies influence the Network Load: Season comparison
1403.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
Summer2050
KLIMscenario
Winter2050
KLIMscenario
15. 1 2 3 4 5
Charging behaviour of Electromobility and Strategies influence the Network Load: Year comparison
1503.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
Summer2030
KLIMPLUSscenario
Summer2050
KLIMPLUSscenario
16. 1 2 3 4 5
Agenda
1603.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
• Motivation
• Simulation Approach (Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo)
• TIMES Local: Model, Scenarios, Results
• Discussion and Summary
• References
17. 1 2 3 4 5
Summary, Conclusion and Discussion
1703.07.2020
Peak loads as well as the resulting grid load are largely dependent on the charging behaviour of the
electric car users and the time of analysis
Peak loads of households and Charging Load of electromobility can differ in time
Potential for load peak reduction by system/grid beneficial control mechanisms
Densely built-up residential areas as a challenge with high Load requirements by electric vehicle
charging in low voltage grid
High charging energy demand in the industrial/commercial sector (e.g. car park) can be supplied via
charging stations in the medium-voltage grid
Independently of free transformer capacities, local construction measures within the grid network
can become necessary due to high/increasing charging loads
Through model coupling (simulation+TIMES), actor behaviour can be considered in “system models”
Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
18. 1 2 3 4 5
Agenda
1803.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
• Motivation
• Simulation Approach (Markov-Chain-Monte-Carlo)
• TIMES Local: Model, Scenarios, Results
• Discussion and Summary
• References
19. 1 2 3 4 5
References
1903.07.2020Consumer behaviour for electromobility and charging strategies in TIMES Local
1 https://www.audi.com/de/experience-audi/mobility-and-trends/e-mobility/e-tron-charging-service.html
2 Daniel Seeger; „Stabilere Stromversorgung durch Kombination von Photovoltaik und Windkraft“; PV Magazine; https://www.pv-
magazine.de/2018/03/06/stabilere-stromversorgung-durch-photovoltaik-und-windkraft/; Foto Conda
3 Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit; Elektromobilität: Allgemeine Informationen; Foto iStock.com/ewg3D
4 https://www.virta.global/blog/what-is-dynamic-load-management
5 M. Litzlbauer, „Erstellung und Modellierung von stochastischen Ladeprofilen mobiler Energiespeicher“. 11. Symposium Energieinnovation,
Graz, Feb. 2010.
6 M. Nauland; “Quantifizierung der Auswirkungen intelligenter Ladestrategien von batterie-elektrischen Fahrzeugen auf das deutsche
Elektrizitätsversorgungssystem“; IER, Universität Stuttgart, 2019
7 Julian Liebhart, Lukasz Brodecki, Nikolai Klempp; „Simulation hochaufgelöster Mobilitätsganglinien“; IER, Universität Stuttgart; 2017
8 Lukasz Brodecki, Markus Blesl; „Modellgestützte Bewertung von Flexibilitätsoptionen und Versorgungsstrukturen eines Bilanzraums mit hohen
Eigenversorgungsgraden mit Energie “; 15. Symposium Energieinnovation, Graz; 2018
9 D. Schneider, L. Langenbucher, L. Brodecki, M. Blesl, R. Wörner;
Analysis of an emission-free public transport (xEV) ; 33nd Electric Vehicle Symposium (EVS33) Portland, Oregon, June 14 - 17, 2020
10 Institut für angewandte Sozialwissenschaft GmbH. (2010b). Mobilität in Deutschland 2008. Nutzerhandbuch, Bonn und Berlin. Zugriff am
02.05.2017
11 Wörner R.; Bauer P.; Schneider D.; Kagerbauer M.; Kostorz N.; Jochem P.; Märtz A.; Blesl M.; Wiesmeth M.; Mayer D.; Körner C.; Schmalen J.;
„Elektromobilität im urbanen Raum - Analysen und Prognosen im Spannungsfeld von Elektromobilität und Energieversorgung am Fallbeispiel
Stuttgart“, Stuttgart, 2019
20. e-mail
phone +49 (0) 711 685-
fax +49 (0) 711 685-
Universität Stuttgart
Thank you!
IER Institute for Energy Economics
and Rational Energy Use
Lukasz Brodecki
878 58
878 73
Institut e for Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER)
lukasz.brodecki@ier.uni-stuttgart.de
Heßbrühlstraße 49a, 70565 Stuttgart