Energy-Water-Land Nexus in Germany: A case study Ms. Vera Sehn, University of Stuttgart - IER

1. Energy-Water-Land Use
Nexus in Germany:
A case study
Vera
Sehn

2. Previous publications on the Nexus:
• Without methodology:
• Conceptualization of the energy-water land/food nexus (70% of the 245 articles
examined by Albrecht et al. 1))
• With methodology and scenario analysis:
• Coupling of several sub-models
• No energy system model with integrated water and land use interactions
____________________________________________
1 T. R. Albrecht, A. Crootof, and C. A. Scott. 2018: The Water-Energy-Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus
assessment The Water-Energy-Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment, Environ. Res. Lett..
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Literature
1. Introduction

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2. Methodological development in TIMES PanEU

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Dissaggrigation of the agricultural sector in TIMES PanEU
2. Methodological developments

5. climate goal:
90 % GHG
reduction
Nexus model Energy model
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Scenario definition
2. Methodological development

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Bioenergy crop cultivation
3. Results
• Nexus modelling includes fertilizer
emissions → leads to less biomass
demand
• Biomass cultivation potential is not
used due to additional nitrous oxide
emissions
• Medium-term: sugar beet cultivation
involves less specific nitrous oxide
emissions than rapeseed cultivation
• Long-term: woody crops favoured
biomass type, as there are hardly any
specific nitrous oxide emissions
• Irrigation is applied
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
statistics
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
2015 2030 2040 2050
Landuse[ha]
woody crops
irrigated
woody crops
rainfed
starchy crops
irrigated
starchy crops
rainfed
sugar crops
rainfed
rape seed
rainfed

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Net electricity generation (public and non public)
3. Results
Nexus extensions lead to
• more wind and solar
energy use
• less bioenergy use
• slightly faster
decarbonization
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
statistics
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
nexusmodel
energymodel
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
netelectricitygeneration[TWh]
storage
net electricity import
others, non-renewable
waste
other renewable
energies
biomass, renew. waste
Solar PV
Wind offshore
Wind onshore
hydro energy incl. pump
storage
nuclear
natural gas
mineral oil
coal
lignite

8. • Agricultural sector has the most unavoidable
process emissions of the entire energy system
• Further reduction measures through a change
in demand are imaginable:
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Remaining GHG emissions of all sectors in 2050 (90% GHG reduction, without any CCS or CCU)
3. Results
Nexus model

9. • Agricultural sector has the most unavoidable
process emissions of the entire energy system
• Further reduction measures through a change
in demand are imaginable:
• Food waste prevention measure (14 % of the
total food demand according to ISWA study)
could save 4.5 Mt CO2-eq and 2.3 million ha of
land
• Meat innovation measure (laboratory meat and
innovative alternative products (development
according to ATKearney study)) could save 9.1
Mt CO2-eq and 4.9 million ha of land area
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Remaining GHG emissions of all sectors in 2050 (90% GHG reduction, without any CCS or CCU)
3. Results
Nexus model

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Total water demand from all sectors with variation of the climate target
3. Results
• The stricter the climate target, the
more biomass is used and the higher
the demand for irrigation water/total
water demand
• Measure Water Resource Efficiency:
Reuse of waste water for irrigation of
woody crops 0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Statistics
ETS(nexusmodel)
GHG90(nexusmodel)
CUM95(nexusmodel)
ETS(nexusmodel)
GHG90(nexusmodel)
CUM95(nexusmodel)
ETS(nexusmodel)
GHG90(nexusmodel)
CUM95(nexusmodel)
ETS(nexusmodel)
GHG90(nexusmodel)
CUM95(nexusmodel)
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
wateruse[millionm3]
Irrigation Biomass
Lignite mining water
withdrawal
Cooling water Biogas /
Biofuel
Cooling water Biomass
solid / Waste ren.
Cooling water Waste
non renewable
Cooling water Nuclear
Cooling water Natural
Gas
Cooling water Oil
Cooling water Coal &
Lignite
Industrial Water
Supply
Public Water Supply

11. Water point of view
• The higher the GHG reduction target, the
higher the demand for irrigation water/total
water demand
• Reuse of waste water for irrigation of woody
crops
• Water price is a functional incentive to avoid
biomass irrigation in an optimization
environment
• Climate change forecasts of water availability
vary greatly from region to region
Land use point of view
• Less use of agricultural biomass (due to fertilizer
emissions)
• Woody crops future preferred biomass type
• Measures to change the demand for agricultural
products could save up to 7 million hectares of
land without changing essential nutritional
habits
• New potential for renewable energies or GHG
sinks? More cooperation between the
agricultural and energy sectors
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4. Summary

12. • T. R. Albrecht, A. Crootof, and C. A. Scott. 2018: The Water-Energy-Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment The Water-Energy-
Food Nexus : A systematic review of methods for nexus assessment, Environ. Res. Lett..
• H. H. Rogner et al., “Seeking CLEWS - Climate, Land, Energy and Water Strategies - A pilot case study in Mauritius,” no. Sei, pp. 1–24, 2011.
• C. Ringler, D. Willenbockel, N. Perez, M. Rosegrant, T. Zhu, and N. Matthews, “Global linkages among energy , food and water : an economic assessment,” J
Env. Stud Sci, vol. 6, pp. 161–171, 2016.
• D. P. van Vuuren et al., “Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm,” Glob. Environ. Chang., vol. 42, pp.
237–250, 2017.
• I. Mouratiadou et al., “The impact of climate change mitigation on water demand for energy and food: An integrated analysis based on the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways,” Environ. Sci. Policy, vol. 64, pp. 48–58, 2016.
• M. Hejazi et al., “Long-term global water projections using six socioeconomic scenarios in an integrated assessment modeling framework,” Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Change, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 205–226, 2014.
• M. Li, Q. Fu, V. P. Singh, D. Liu, C. Zhang, and T. Li, “An optimal modelling approach for managing agricultural water-energy-food nexus under uncertainty,”
Sci. Total Environ., vol. Volume 651, pp. 1416–1434, 2019.
• R. E. Engström, G. Destouni, M. Howells, V. Ramaswamy, H. Rogner, and M. Bazilian, “Cross-scalewater and land impacts of local climate and energy policy-
A local Swedish analysis of selected SDG interactions,” Sustain., vol. 11, no. 7, 2019.
• Lucas et al., 2007: Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency
• Sehn V., Blesl M., The implications of national climate targets on the energy-water nexus applied on a case study of Germany. (in press).
• Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde, 2019: Mitteilung vom 15.04.2019.
• Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Agrarpolitik, Ernährung und gesundheitlicher Verbraucherschutz und Wissenschaftlicher Beirat Waldpolitik beim BMEL, 2016:
Klimaschutz in der Land- und Forstwirtschaft sowie den nachgelagerten Bereichen Ernährung und Holzverwendung. Gutachten. Berlin
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Sources

13. E-Mail
University Stuttgart
Thank you for your attention!
IER Institut für Energiewirtschaft
und Rationelle Energieanwendung
Vera Sehn
Institute of energey economics and rational energy use
Vera.sehn@ier.uni-stuttgart.de