Presentation "COVID-19 risk and food value chains: Insights from India" by Sudha Narayanan, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research. More info and full recording of this webinar: https://bit.ly/COVID-FVC

1. W E B I N AR
COVID-19 RISK AND FOOD VALUE CHAINS
December 11, 2020 / 10:00 – 11:00 AM EDT
PRESENTERS:
Kalle Hirvonen, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Sudha Narayanan, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research
Ben Belton, Michigan State University / WorldFish
MODERATOR:
Nick Minot, IFPRI
DISCUSSANT:
Frank Place, CGIAR Research Program on
Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

2. COVID-19 RISK AND FOOD VALUE
CHAINS
Insights from India
Sudha Narayanan
Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), Mumbai, India
December 11, 2020

3. The COVID19 Crisis in India
• Both a health crisis and an
economic crisis
• First case was detected on
January 31, 2020
• Early action: nationwide
lockdown imposed on March
24, 2020 (until May 31,
2020).
• Government “one step
behind”, reactive
• Economic crisis triggered;
health crisis continues to
unfold…

4. Food supply chains unraveled
• Farming operations – access to own farms; availability of labour and
machinery
• Intermittent mandi closures, high risk areas
• Village itinerant traders stopped coming; reluctant to procure and offering
low prices
• Transport challenges (costs doubled; truckers/loaders unavailable)
• Warehouses/cold storages too faced labour constraints
• Agroprocessors were operating below capacity, if at all (30-50%)
• Bottlenecks through to the retail end, including exports, demand collapse
(HORECA)
• Plantation crops and livestock/poultry/fisheries particularly badly hit

5. Mandi (regulated markets) operations in 2020

6. Market arrivals of 40 major crops

7. Consumer prices rose in cities…

8. Consumer prices for animal products

9. Prices farmers receive crashed, just recovering

10. Operational challenges of retailers (three waves
between April and July 2020; n=50)

11. Lockdown had affected them very badly 39%
A household member lost his/her job 23.5%
Had to borrow food, rely on others for food or skip a meal at least once in the past 1
week?
23%
Faced a problem
- Getting food in adequate quantity and variety in the village 40.7%
- Finding work 70.5%
- Earning income 81.2%
- Paying back loans (for those with debt) 85.1%
Coping Strategy
Borrowing 38%
Cutting back on expenses 85%
Selling assets 3%
Relying on Friends and relative 20%
Farmer Survey –April-May 2020 (˜370 farmers from 9 states)
Findings consistent across surveys

12. Key insights and concluding remarks
• Public procurement has helped; as has private innovation
• Role of FPOs and agri-tech firms – small scale, but effective
Online food delivery orders (referred to as “foodtech”) dropped by 75% in April 2020, relative to January
2020 (e-commerce fell by 83% over this period), e-grocery in contrast rose by 27%. (Redseer), but e-
grocers struggled.
• Informal food retailers have been crucial.
• Role of the state (especially by state governments)
• Procurement of rice, wheat, pulses and oil seeds
• In-kind food grain distribution (milk, tea, fruits and vegetables in some
states)
• Food insecurity remains high
• Consumer demand down
• In July, overall food expenditure 12% lower, y-o-y (CMIE data); 18% lower for
cereals; dairy, eggs and meat 10% lower.
• Inflation remains high.

13. More info and recording
of this webinar:
https://bit.ly/COVID-FVC