Presentation "COVID-19 Impacts on Fish Value Chains in Nigeria" by Ben Belton, MSU/WorldFish. More info and recording of this webinar: https://bit.ly/COVID-FVC

2. PHOTO
COVID-19 Impacts on Fish Value Chains in Nigeria
Ben Belton, Saweda-Liverpool Tasie, Oyinkan Tasie, Iredele Ogunbayo, Ajibola Olaniyi, Thomas Reardon.

3. Survey overview
• Survey 1: WorldFish (FISH CRP): 789 fish
supply chain actors in Bangladesh, Egypt, India,
Myanmar, Timor-Leste, and Nigeria (95
respondents; mainly in SW)
• Survey 2: WorldFish & MSU survey (PIM): 555
fish and poultry supply chain actors, 8
geopolitical zones (national coverage).
• Objectives: Tracking quantities produced & traded; prices; access
to inputs & buyers, transport, labor; challenges; assistance
• Method: Interviews by phone, recall for Feb-April (in May), then
monthly until December 2020

4. Short term effects of lockdown; longer-term impacts
on demand
• Effect of lockdown on
attempted transactions and
ability to access transport
temporary (3-4 months)
• Impacts on input access
longer (5+ months)
• Impact on demand is bigger
and longer lasting than
impact on supply: 6+ months
– no full recovery.
% of respondents attempting a transaction, and able to access
transport, inputs & buyers on all occasions (WorldFish survey)
0
20
40
60
80
100
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Attempted to buy/sell Able to access transport
Able to access inputs Able to find buyers

5. Casual employment recovering after initial decline
% of respondents employing daily laborers,
by gender of laborer (WorldFish survey)
• Employment of casual workers
depressed for 6 months –
recovering February levels in
September
• Dip in employment reflects
constraints on:
• Supply side (Laborers unable
to get to work in April/May due
to lockdown/transport access)
• Demand side (Reduced sales,
suspended operations, cost
savings)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Women Men

6. Challenges evolving over time: lockdown & low
demand → cash flow & input shortages
0
500
1000
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Others Boko Haram/Security isses
Weather/Environment/Seasonality Unable to access transport/High transport cost
Lockdown/Movement restrictions Cash flow problems/Lack of finance
Low demand/Low sales price Input shortage/High input price
Number of challenges reported by respondents, by type of challenge and month
(WorldFish & MSU survey)

7. Evolving challenges: March/April – lockdown,
transport, movement restrictions, access to inputs
• “The major customers I produce for are in Lagos. The shutdown of
businesses therefore affected my business very negatively as there was no
demand for broilers from my customers.”
• “We lost over 50 birds due to the inability of my staff to go and take care of
them as required because of the lockdown.”
• “Getting feed at the right time was a challenge, I usually go through
exchanges and explanations with the security personnel.”
• “The police keep extorting money from drivers whenever there are state
imposed movement restrictions, even when drivers have the permit for
essential services.”
Quotes from respondents to WorldFish & MSU survey

8. Evolving challenges: August/September –
Low demand, cashflow problems, rising prices
• “Things haven't normalized following the pandemic, so people aren't buying
eggs so much. I had to begin sales of other commodities like garri.”
• “Sales were not too good, and fish was expensive. I had to seek cheaper
sources of supply and scout for more customers.”
• “Increased costs and difficulty in sourcing feeds as companies are also
finding it difficult to produce”
• “The customers had to be convinced to purchase [feed] as most customers
quit farming, and the ones still in business were contemplating quitting too.”
• “I had to start downsizing as there wasn’t enough funds to offset the cost of
running the business at full scale.”
Quotes from respondents to WorldFish & MSU survey

9. Downward trend in number of operational
businesses
Share of businesses operating by State and month (WorldFish & MSU survey)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
Kaduna Rivers Kebbi Niger Borno
Oyo Ebonyi Abuja Linear (All)

10. Very little assistance received
• Very little
assistance for
ANY respondents
(<2% in April)
• Almost all
assistance
informal
(family/friends)
N & % of respondents receiving assistance (WorldFish & MSU survey)
FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP
% receiving any
assistance
0.5 0.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.6
Family/friends 2 4 7 5 1 2 2 2
NGO 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
Govt. 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0
Community 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1
Association 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
Other 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0

11. Conclusions
• Business operations recovered from the initial shock of lockdown by
June/July, as logistics & markets began working again
• Challenges faced by businesses are evolving
• Demand has remained slow – transmitted upstream along supply chain
• Businesses face cashflow problems and rising costs/input shortages
• Lagged effects of initial shock – e.g. lower maize production high
inflation, currency devaluation, contributing to higher feed prices.
• Increasing numbers of business closures over time
• Government safety net was not widely implemented - almost no formal
assistance received.

12. Recommendations
• Safeguard ability to access transport and ensure movement of merchandise
by designating fish and supplies of fish production inputs and logistics
services as ‘essentials’.
• Keeping markets open and operating safely is key to safeguarding demand
and keeping the supply chain functioning adequately.
• Provide financial support (e.g. cheap loans, targeted subsidies, reduced fees
and rebates on bills) to actors of supply chain who have lost revenues to
shore up cashflow and continue business activities.
• Rollout social protection to support the vulnerable and stimulate demand.
• Raise awareness of how to use digital channels to market and deliver fish
products and production inputs.

13. Thank you
Please visit https://www.worldfishcenter.org/pages/covid-19/ for more information

14. More info and recording
of this webinar:
https://bit.ly/COVID-FVC