SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 40
Download to read offline
GBD 2017: Global Results
November 2018
2
1. Main findings
2. Definitions: GBD and DALYs
3. Population/fertility
4. Mortality
5. Life expectancy
6. Healthy life expectancy (HALE)
7. Years lost due to death and disability (DALYs)
8. Causes of death (YLLs)
9. Morbidity (YLDs)
10. Risk factors
11. SDGs
Outline
Main findings
3
1. In 2017, the top three countries in life expectancy were Singapore
(84.8 years), Japan (84.2 years), and Switzerland (84.0 years); lowest
were Central African Republic (51.9 years), Lesotho (54.7 years), and
Mozambique (58.4 years).
However, the question is whether additional years are spent in good health or poor health –
global trends in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) indicate that more effort is needed to
increase healthy life expectancy.
2. Fertility: In 2017, 91 countries have total fertility rates below the
replacement rate of 2.05, while the opposite is true in 104 countries
where higher total fertility rates which may drive population increases.
3. While females tend to live longer than males, many of these additional
years are spent in poor health.
4. An unintended consequence of greater access to health care globally is
increases in mortality from diseases and disorders linked to antibiotic
resistance.
Main findings (continued)
4
5. Among age groups, the under-5 age group experienced huge
reductions in mortality between 1950 and 2017, while adults
have made much less progress, particularly adult males.
6. HIV remains a massive public health threat, particularly
because global financing has plateaued, domestic health
spending has stayed low among high-burden countries, and its
incidence has not declined as quickly in younger as in older
populations.
7. Risk factors: high blood pressure and smoking are leading
global risk factors linked to early death and disability at all ages.
8. SDGs: Despite progress, achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in
doubt.
To meet SDGs, there is a need to increase progress on health-related
indicators between 2017 and 2030.
What’s new in GBD 2017
5
Improved statistical methods, new and more data sources
1. For the first time, a comprehensive series of population
and fertility estimates were produced
2. Nineteen new causes of death and disability were added, for
a total of 359 causes
3. Mortality
• New population estimates led to substantial changes
in mortality estimates in many countries
• The analysis was extended to start in 1950
5. SDGs: added four new indicators, producing estimates for
41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators
• Subnational analyses of SDGs for subset of countries
and analysis of trends by sex for select indicators
6. Risk factors:
• Bullying victimization added as new risk factor
• Examines how risks change according to level
of development
• More accurate method of estimating smoking risk
What’s new in GBD 2017 (continued)
6
7
What is the Global Burden of Disease?
A systematic, scientific effort to
quantify the comparative magnitude of
health loss due to diseases, injuries,
and risk factors by age, sex, and
geographies for specific points in time.
What is a disability-adjusted life year
(DALY)?
8
Important new feature of GBD: comprehensive population
and fertility estimates produced for the first time.
The GBD study’s new estimates improve upon previously
available estimates in three key ways:
1. Precision. Current standard for population estimates is five-year
age groupings, but GBD estimates are for single years.
2. Standardization. GBD uses the same methodology to estimate
populations across locations, ensuring valid comparisons.
3. Transparency. All data sources/methods are published,
publicly accessible, and free.
Population/fertility
9
Population growth rate, 2010–2017
Recent population growth has been
highest in Africa, Asia, and South America
10
• Global population increased from 2.6 billion in 1950 to 7.6 billion in 2017.
• Despite growth, approximately half of 195 countries recorded total fertility
rates below the replacement rate of approximately 2.05 in 2017.
11
• Immigration can also drive increases in
population despite total fertility rates
below replacement level. This is the
case in several countries in the Middle
East (see top-left quadrant of figure).
• Of the 60 countries with a total fertility
rate of 3.0 or greater in 2017, most are
in sub-Saharan Africa, where the
proportion of women whose
contraceptive needs are being met is
46.5%.
Countries plotted by total fertility rate and population growth rate, 2017
12
Fertility rates for females under 25, by number of countries, 2017
Fertility in females under 25 varies widely by country
• Among countries, total
fertility under age 25 ranged
from a low of 0.08 births to a
high of 2.4 births.
• Since 1990, countries have
achieved nearly universal
declines in fertility under age
25, which is a key indicator
for Sustainable
Development Goal 3.
• Still, in 50 countries, total
fertility was higher in
females younger than 25
than in those 30 or older.
Highlights
1. Rapid progress in life expectancy from 1950 to 2017:
• Males, up from 48 years in 1950 to 71 years in 2017
• Females, up from 53 years in 1950 to 76 years in 2017
2. Among age groups, the under-5 age group experienced huge
reductions in mortality between 1950 and 2017, while adults
have made much less progress, particularly adult males.
3. While females tend to live longer than males, the gap in life
expectancy between them varies substantially by level of
socioeconomic development.
13
Mortality
14
Total number of global deaths, 1950–2017
• The proportion of deaths in
those over age 75 increased
from 12% of total deaths in
1950 to 39% in 2017.
• There have been dramatic
declines in under-5 mortality,
but there were still 5.4 million
deaths among children under
5 worldwide in 2017.
15
*SDI captures three different
aspects of development:
income, education, and fertility
Under-5 mortality by level of socioeconomic development, 1990–2017
• Declines in under-5 mortality
were fastest among countries
in the lowest quintile of
Socio-demographic Index
(SDI)*
16
Life expectancy: Number of years a person is expected to live
based on their present age.
Healthy life expectancy (HALE): the number of years that a
person at a given age can expect to live in full health, taking into
account mortality and disability.
Highlights:
1. In 2017 globally, life expectancy at birth was 73 years,
but healthy life expectancy at birth was only 63 years.
• This means on average, 10 years of life were
spent in poor health in 2017.
2. While females tend to live longer than males, the gap in life
expectancy between them varies substantially by level
of socioeconomic development.
Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy
17
Life expectancy at birth, both sexes, 2017
Life expectancy
There was rapid progress in life expectancy from 1950 to 2017:
• Males, up from 48 years in 1950 to 71 years in 2017
• Females, up from 53 years in 1950 to 76 years in 2017
18
Life expectancy at birth by sex and level of socioeconomic development, 2017
Disparities in life expectancy
between males and females
were greatest in countries at
the high-middle and middle
levels of development.
19
Healthy life expectancy at birth, both sexes, 2017
Healthy life expectancy (HALE)
• Globally, in 2017, life expectancy was 73 years, but HALE was only
63 years – on average, 10 years of life were spent in poor health in 2017.
20
Performance in healthy life expectancy across regions
Healthy life expectancy
above or below expected
amount based on level of
development, GBD super-
regions, 2017
21
Extra years lived by females compared to males
in good health versus poor health, 2017
While females tend to live
longer than males, many of
these extra years are spent in
poor health.
22
Early death and disability is measured in terms of
disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
Highlights
1. From 1990 to 2017, 41% decrease in
communicable diseases and neonatal disorders
2. From 1990 to 2017, 40% increase in
non-communicable diseases
3. Large disparities persist in health and disease
burden by sex and level of development
Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
23
‡Ranking based on number of
all-ages DALYs
§SDI captures three different
aspects of development:
income, education, and fertility
COPD = chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease
Leading causes of early death and disability‡ at
lowest and highest levels of development, 2017
24
Highlights
1. Between 1990 and 2017, early death from enteric infections,
respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and
neonatal disorders dropped, with the greatest declines in the
least developed countries.
2. Progress in reducing mortality from some common diseases
has stalled or reversed, primarily for non-communicable
diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers.
3. An unintended consequence of increased access
to health care globally is increases in mortality from diseases
and disorders linked to antibiotic resistance.
Causes of death
25
Leading causes of early death, 1990–2017
**Ranking based on number of years
lived with disability (YLLs) at all ages
26
Change in mortality* due to extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, 2007–2017
Since 2007, there have been rapid increases in emerging diseases and
disorders due to antibiotic use or resistance, including extensively
drug-resistant tuberculosis, cellulitis, and Clostridium difficile diarrhea.
*Reflects annual rate of change
in all-ages deaths per 100,000
27
**Death rate at all ages
and for both sexes
Global mortality** from cardiovascular diseases, 2007–2017
• Medications that prevent
deaths from cardiovascular
diseases, such as those that
lower blood pressure and
cholesterol, are among the
most cost-effective
interventions available to
health systems.
• Despite this, mortality
from cardiovascular
diseases has increased
since 2007 worldwide.
28
Years lived with disability (YLDs): Years of life lived with any
short-term or long-term health loss
Highlights
1. Globally, the total burden of YLDs increased by 52%
between 1990 and 2017.
2. The burden of disability was driven mainly by non-
communicable diseases (NCDs), which caused 80% of
YLDs in 2017.
3. Disability from metabolic conditions, such as type 2 diabetes
and fatty liver disease, increased around the world and
across levels of development.
Morbidity
29
Number of total YLDs, global, both sexes, by age group and cause, 2017
• The burden of
disability is most
concentrated in
working-age
people.
• Years lived with
disability (YLDs)
represent time
lived in less-than-
ideal health.
30
**Headache disorders mainly include migraine.
†Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Leading causes of global all-age disability, 1990 and 2017
While diabetes emerged as the
fourth-leading cause of disability
globally in 2017, many of the
leading causes of disability in
1990 remain so in 2017, namely
low back pain, headaches, and
depression.
31
Annual change in rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
attributable to risk factors, both sexes, age-adjusted, 1990–2017
Risk factors: changes in early death and
disability attributable to risk factors
32
Leading risk factors causing early death and disability, by sex, 2017
Risk factors
Smoking and high systolic
blood pressure are global
leading risk factors
*Rank based on number
of all-ages DALYs
33
Regional** trends in high blood pressure and smoking
The disease burden caused by these two risk factors, compared to the burden expected
based on the level of socioeconomic development, varied considerably by super-region.
**GBD super-regions
High blood pressure Smoking
34
About the SDG Index: The SDG index is a composite
measure, ranging from 0 to 100, of overall progress toward
meeting the SDGs. It takes into account 40 performance
indicators for the health-related SDGs.
This analysis of the health-related SDGs is based on
GBD 2017 estimates.
Highlights
1. Based on past trends, most countries’ SDG index scores
are projected to rise between 2017 and 2030.
2. By 2030, the under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality,
maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the
most countries likely to attain their targets.
Sustainable Development Goals
35
Sustainable Development Goals Index* score, 2017
Global average SDG index score, 2017: 59.4
36
Global rate of new cases
of HIV, 2017**
Global deaths due to
road injuries, 2017
Global prevalence of
alcohol use, 2017
**Median Estimates
†Heavier drinking was weighted more than light drinking
SDGs: Differences by sex in 2017
37
Global under-5 mortality rate
Looking ahead to 2030: despite progress,
achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in doubt
SDG target:
Reduce under-5 mortality to
25 per 100,000 live births or
below by 2030
38
Global maternal mortality ratio
Looking ahead to 2030: despite progress,
achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in doubt
SDG target:
Reduce maternal mortality
ratio to 70 per 100,000 live
births or below by 2030
39
Global prevalence of overweight in children aged 2 to 4
Looking ahead to 2030: despite progress,
achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in doubt
SDG target:
Eliminate child
overweight by 2030
Questions?
Media contacts
• Kelly Bienhoff
+1-206-897-2884 (office)
+1-913-302-3817 (mobile)
kbien@uw.edu
• Dean Owen
+1-206-897-2858 (office)
+1-206-434-5630 (mobile)
dean1227@uw.edu

More Related Content

What's hot

International health regulations(ihr).pptx
International health regulations(ihr).pptxInternational health regulations(ihr).pptx
International health regulations(ihr).pptxADESH MEDICAL COLLEGE
 
Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?
Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?
Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?Renzo Guinto
 
Universal health coverage
Universal health coverageUniversal health coverage
Universal health coverageVineetha K
 
Introduction to DALY and burden of disease
Introduction to DALY and burden of diseaseIntroduction to DALY and burden of disease
Introduction to DALY and burden of diseaseDr Arindam Basu
 
Burden of Disease Analysis
Burden of Disease AnalysisBurden of Disease Analysis
Burden of Disease Analysissourav goswami
 
Social Determinants of Health Inequities
Social Determinants of Health InequitiesSocial Determinants of Health Inequities
Social Determinants of Health InequitiesRenzo Guinto
 
Social Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of HealthSocial Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of Healthrheaju
 
Social determinant of health
Social determinant of healthSocial determinant of health
Social determinant of healthAbdur Rouf
 
Social Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of HealthSocial Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of HealthChad Leaman
 
International health regulation
International health regulationInternational health regulation
International health regulationVenu Bolisetti
 
Evolution of public health- Dr Subraham Pany
Evolution of public health- Dr Subraham PanyEvolution of public health- Dr Subraham Pany
Evolution of public health- Dr Subraham PanySubraham Pany
 
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil Tumaini
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil TumainiStandardization of rates by Dr. Basil Tumaini
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil TumainiBasil Tumaini
 
International health Regulations
International health RegulationsInternational health Regulations
International health Regulationsbitan sengupta
 

What's hot (20)

International health regulations(ihr).pptx
International health regulations(ihr).pptxInternational health regulations(ihr).pptx
International health regulations(ihr).pptx
 
Epidemiologic Transition
Epidemiologic Transition Epidemiologic Transition
Epidemiologic Transition
 
Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?
Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?
Social Determinants of Health: Why Should We Bother?
 
Global health
Global healthGlobal health
Global health
 
Universal health coverage
Universal health coverageUniversal health coverage
Universal health coverage
 
Introduction to DALY and burden of disease
Introduction to DALY and burden of diseaseIntroduction to DALY and burden of disease
Introduction to DALY and burden of disease
 
Burden of Disease Analysis
Burden of Disease AnalysisBurden of Disease Analysis
Burden of Disease Analysis
 
GHSA Global Health Security Agenda general presentation
GHSA Global Health Security Agenda general presentationGHSA Global Health Security Agenda general presentation
GHSA Global Health Security Agenda general presentation
 
Social Determinants of Health Inequities
Social Determinants of Health InequitiesSocial Determinants of Health Inequities
Social Determinants of Health Inequities
 
Public health powerpoint
Public health powerpointPublic health powerpoint
Public health powerpoint
 
Social Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of HealthSocial Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of Health
 
Social determinant of health
Social determinant of healthSocial determinant of health
Social determinant of health
 
Social Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of HealthSocial Determinants of Health
Social Determinants of Health
 
International health regulation
International health regulationInternational health regulation
International health regulation
 
Evolution of public health- Dr Subraham Pany
Evolution of public health- Dr Subraham PanyEvolution of public health- Dr Subraham Pany
Evolution of public health- Dr Subraham Pany
 
Universal health care
Universal health care Universal health care
Universal health care
 
Social medicine
Social medicineSocial medicine
Social medicine
 
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil Tumaini
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil TumainiStandardization of rates by Dr. Basil Tumaini
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil Tumaini
 
Public health emergencies
Public health emergenciesPublic health emergencies
Public health emergencies
 
International health Regulations
International health RegulationsInternational health Regulations
International health Regulations
 

Similar to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study findings

Dr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging Nation
Dr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging NationDr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging Nation
Dr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging NationDr Dev Kambhampati
 
Dr Yousef Elshrek is One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...
Dr Yousef Elshrek is  One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...Dr Yousef Elshrek is  One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...
Dr Yousef Elshrek is One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...Univ. of Tripoli
 
Unit I -Indian Society.pptx
Unit I -Indian Society.pptxUnit I -Indian Society.pptx
Unit I -Indian Society.pptxCDSukte
 
Demography and Family Plannining Lecture
Demography   and Family Plannining Lecture Demography   and Family Plannining Lecture
Demography and Family Plannining Lecture Dr.Farhana Yasmin
 
Demographic transition and its relation to NCD
Demographic transition and its relation to NCDDemographic transition and its relation to NCD
Demographic transition and its relation to NCDBSMMU
 
Sustainable development goals b
Sustainable development goals bSustainable development goals b
Sustainable development goals bAbdulsamadIbrahim
 
WorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdf
WorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdfWorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdf
WorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdfjovensalabre1
 
Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016 lancet 2017
Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016   lancet 2017Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016   lancet 2017
Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016 lancet 2017Luis Sales
 
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in less developed countries, Sa...
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in  less developed countries, Sa...Causes and consequences of mortality decline in  less developed countries, Sa...
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in less developed countries, Sa...Nishat Zareen
 
Ageing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECDAgeing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECDOECD Governance
 
Ageing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECDAgeing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECDOECD Governance
 
Millenium development goals
Millenium development goalsMillenium development goals
Millenium development goalshariprakashdr
 
Demo graphic transition
Demo graphic transition Demo graphic transition
Demo graphic transition zafrid hussain
 
Clinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of Ibd
Clinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of IbdClinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of Ibd
Clinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of IbdHeidi Barrera
 
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONCAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONGeorge Dumitrache
 
OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...
OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...
OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...StatsCommunications
 
Social and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in india
Social and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in indiaSocial and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in india
Social and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in indiaDr. Dharmendra Gahwai
 

Similar to Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study findings (20)

Dr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging Nation
Dr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging NationDr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging Nation
Dr Dev Kambhampati | Census-USA- An Aging Nation
 
Dr Yousef Elshrek is One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...
Dr Yousef Elshrek is  One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...Dr Yousef Elshrek is  One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...
Dr Yousef Elshrek is One co-authors in this study >>>> Global, regional, and...
 
Demography lecture ppt
Demography lecture pptDemography lecture ppt
Demography lecture ppt
 
Unit I -Indian Society.pptx
Unit I -Indian Society.pptxUnit I -Indian Society.pptx
Unit I -Indian Society.pptx
 
Demography ppt
Demography pptDemography ppt
Demography ppt
 
Demography and Family Plannining Lecture
Demography   and Family Plannining Lecture Demography   and Family Plannining Lecture
Demography and Family Plannining Lecture
 
Demographic transition and its relation to NCD
Demographic transition and its relation to NCDDemographic transition and its relation to NCD
Demographic transition and its relation to NCD
 
Sustainable development goals b
Sustainable development goals bSustainable development goals b
Sustainable development goals b
 
WorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdf
WorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdfWorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdf
WorldPopulationAgeing2019-Highlights.pdf
 
Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016 lancet 2017
Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016   lancet 2017Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016   lancet 2017
Analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016 lancet 2017
 
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in less developed countries, Sa...
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in  less developed countries, Sa...Causes and consequences of mortality decline in  less developed countries, Sa...
Causes and consequences of mortality decline in less developed countries, Sa...
 
Ageing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECDAgeing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
 
Ageing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECDAgeing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
Ageing: Fiscal implications and policy responses -- Chris James, OECD
 
Millenium development goals
Millenium development goalsMillenium development goals
Millenium development goals
 
Demo graphic transition
Demo graphic transition Demo graphic transition
Demo graphic transition
 
Clinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of Ibd
Clinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of IbdClinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of Ibd
Clinical Signs, Morbidity And Mortality Rates Of Ibd
 
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITIONCAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
CAMBRIDGE AS GEOGRAPHY REVISION: POPULATION - 4.2 DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
 
OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...
OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...
OECD Well-being and Mental Health Conference, Sir Michael Marmot, UCL Institu...
 
demography
demographydemography
demography
 
Social and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in india
Social and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in indiaSocial and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in india
Social and economic implications of noncommunicable diseases in india
 

More from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - University of Washington

More from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - University of Washington (20)

Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation Plan
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation PlanSalud Mesoamerica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation Plan
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation Plan
 
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the third operation measure...
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the third operation measure...Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the third operation measure...
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the third operation measure...
 
Salud Mesoamerica Process Evaluation: Evidence on Culture Change in Health Sy...
Salud Mesoamerica Process Evaluation: Evidence on Culture Change in Health Sy...Salud Mesoamerica Process Evaluation: Evidence on Culture Change in Health Sy...
Salud Mesoamerica Process Evaluation: Evidence on Culture Change in Health Sy...
 
Salud Mesoamérica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation Plan
Salud Mesoamérica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation PlanSalud Mesoamérica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation Plan
Salud Mesoamérica Initiative: Mixed-Methods Evaluation Plan
 
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the second operation measur...
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the second operation measur...Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the second operation measur...
Salud Mesoamerica Initiative: Select results from the second operation measur...
 
Salud Mesoamérica Initiative: Select results from the baseline measurement
Salud Mesoamérica Initiative: Select results from the baseline measurementSalud Mesoamérica Initiative: Select results from the baseline measurement
Salud Mesoamérica Initiative: Select results from the baseline measurement
 
Quality of under-5 mortality statistics in Yucatán, Mexico (Spanish)
Quality of under-5 mortality statistics in Yucatán, Mexico (Spanish)Quality of under-5 mortality statistics in Yucatán, Mexico (Spanish)
Quality of under-5 mortality statistics in Yucatán, Mexico (Spanish)
 
Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2017 Results dissemination work...
Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2017 Results dissemination work...Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2017 Results dissemination work...
Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2017 Results dissemination work...
 
Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2021 Results dissemination work...
Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2021 Results dissemination work...Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2021 Results dissemination work...
Under-5 mortality and healthcare in Yucatán – 2021 Results dissemination work...
 
The Global Fund Prospective Country Evaluation
The Global Fund Prospective Country EvaluationThe Global Fund Prospective Country Evaluation
The Global Fund Prospective Country Evaluation
 
Prospective Country Evaluation 2019 Synthesis Findings
Prospective Country Evaluation 2019 Synthesis FindingsProspective Country Evaluation 2019 Synthesis Findings
Prospective Country Evaluation 2019 Synthesis Findings
 
Expected Human Capital: Key themes and talking points
Expected Human Capital: Key themes and talking pointsExpected Human Capital: Key themes and talking points
Expected Human Capital: Key themes and talking points
 
Global Health Financing
Global Health FinancingGlobal Health Financing
Global Health Financing
 
Maternal and Child Mortality in the United States
Maternal and Child Mortality in the United StatesMaternal and Child Mortality in the United States
Maternal and Child Mortality in the United States
 
Salud Mesoamérica 2015 Initiative: Select results from the first operation me...
Salud Mesoamérica 2015 Initiative: Select results from the first operation me...Salud Mesoamérica 2015 Initiative: Select results from the first operation me...
Salud Mesoamérica 2015 Initiative: Select results from the first operation me...
 
Chronic diseases and their risk factors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Chronic diseases and their risk factors in the Kingdom of Saudi ArabiaChronic diseases and their risk factors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Chronic diseases and their risk factors in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
 
Speyer communicating dataforimpact_2015
Speyer communicating dataforimpact_2015Speyer communicating dataforimpact_2015
Speyer communicating dataforimpact_2015
 
Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery in Ghana
Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery in GhanaUnderstanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery in Ghana
Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery in Ghana
 
ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...
ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...
ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...
 
ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...
ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...
ABCE: Understanding the costs of and constraints to health service delivery ...
 

Recently uploaded

PAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdf
PAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdfPAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdf
PAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdfDolisha Warbi
 
Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.
Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.
Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.kishan singh tomar
 
Neurological history taking (2024) .
Neurological  history  taking  (2024)  .Neurological  history  taking  (2024)  .
Neurological history taking (2024) .Mohamed Rizk Khodair
 
AORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissection
AORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissectionAORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissection
AORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissectiondrhanifmohdali
 
SGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA .pdf
SGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA    .pdfSGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA    .pdf
SGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA .pdfHongBiThi1
 
Using Data Visualization in Public Health Communications
Using Data Visualization in Public Health CommunicationsUsing Data Visualization in Public Health Communications
Using Data Visualization in Public Health Communicationskatiequigley33
 
EXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung function
EXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung functionEXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung function
EXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung functionkrishnareddy157915
 
ayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologyppt
ayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologypptayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologyppt
ayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologypptPradnya Wadekar
 
Basic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptx
Basic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptxBasic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptx
Basic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptxkomalt2001
 
How to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturally
How to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturallyHow to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturally
How to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturallyZurück zum Ursprung
 
Breast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptx
Breast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptxBreast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptx
Breast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptxNaveenkumar267201
 
Unit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.ppt
Unit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.pptUnit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.ppt
Unit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.pptPradnya Wadekar
 
Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024
Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024
Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024EwoutSteyerberg1
 
Mental health Team. Dr Senthil Thirusangu
Mental health Team. Dr Senthil ThirusanguMental health Team. Dr Senthil Thirusangu
Mental health Team. Dr Senthil Thirusangu Medical University
 
CONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdf
CONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdfCONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdf
CONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdfDolisha Warbi
 
SGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdf
SGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdfSGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdf
SGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdfHongBiThi1
 
High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)
High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)
High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)kishan singh tomar
 
SGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdf
SGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdfSGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdf
SGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdfHongBiThi1
 

Recently uploaded (20)

PAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdf
PAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdfPAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdf
PAIN/CLASSIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT OF PAIN.pdf
 
Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.
Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.
Different drug regularity bodies in different countries.
 
Neurological history taking (2024) .
Neurological  history  taking  (2024)  .Neurological  history  taking  (2024)  .
Neurological history taking (2024) .
 
AORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissection
AORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissectionAORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissection
AORTIC DISSECTION and management of aortic dissection
 
SGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA .pdf
SGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA    .pdfSGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA    .pdf
SGK NGẠT NƯỚC ĐHYHN RẤT LÀ HAY NHA .pdf
 
Using Data Visualization in Public Health Communications
Using Data Visualization in Public Health CommunicationsUsing Data Visualization in Public Health Communications
Using Data Visualization in Public Health Communications
 
EXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung function
EXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung functionEXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung function
EXERCISE PERFORMANCE.pptx, Lung function
 
ayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologyppt
ayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologypptayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologyppt
ayurvedic formulations herbal drug technologyppt
 
American College of physicians ACP high value care recommendations in rheumat...
American College of physicians ACP high value care recommendations in rheumat...American College of physicians ACP high value care recommendations in rheumat...
American College of physicians ACP high value care recommendations in rheumat...
 
Basic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptx
Basic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptxBasic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptx
Basic structure of hair and hair growth cycle.pptx
 
How to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturally
How to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturallyHow to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturally
How to cure cirrhosis and chronic hepatitis naturally
 
Breast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptx
Breast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptxBreast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptx
Breast cancer -ONCO IN MEDICAL AND SURGICAL NURSING.pptx
 
Unit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.ppt
Unit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.pptUnit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.ppt
Unit I herbs as raw materials, biodynamic agriculture.ppt
 
Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024
Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024
Trustworthiness of AI based predictions Aachen 2024
 
Mental health Team. Dr Senthil Thirusangu
Mental health Team. Dr Senthil ThirusanguMental health Team. Dr Senthil Thirusangu
Mental health Team. Dr Senthil Thirusangu
 
CONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdf
CONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdfCONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdf
CONNECTIVE TISSUE (ANATOMY AND PHYSIOLOGY).pdf
 
SGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdf
SGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdfSGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdf
SGK RỐI LOẠN TOAN KIỀM ĐHYHN RẤT HAY VÀ ĐẶC SẮC.pdf
 
High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)
High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)
High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography (HPTLC)
 
SGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdf
SGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdfSGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdf
SGK LEUKEMIA KINH DÒNG BẠCH CÂU HẠT HAY.pdf
 
How to master Steroid (glucocorticoids) prescription, different scenarios, ca...
How to master Steroid (glucocorticoids) prescription, different scenarios, ca...How to master Steroid (glucocorticoids) prescription, different scenarios, ca...
How to master Steroid (glucocorticoids) prescription, different scenarios, ca...
 

Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study findings

  • 1. GBD 2017: Global Results November 2018
  • 2. 2 1. Main findings 2. Definitions: GBD and DALYs 3. Population/fertility 4. Mortality 5. Life expectancy 6. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) 7. Years lost due to death and disability (DALYs) 8. Causes of death (YLLs) 9. Morbidity (YLDs) 10. Risk factors 11. SDGs Outline
  • 3. Main findings 3 1. In 2017, the top three countries in life expectancy were Singapore (84.8 years), Japan (84.2 years), and Switzerland (84.0 years); lowest were Central African Republic (51.9 years), Lesotho (54.7 years), and Mozambique (58.4 years). However, the question is whether additional years are spent in good health or poor health – global trends in non-communicable diseases (NCDs) indicate that more effort is needed to increase healthy life expectancy. 2. Fertility: In 2017, 91 countries have total fertility rates below the replacement rate of 2.05, while the opposite is true in 104 countries where higher total fertility rates which may drive population increases. 3. While females tend to live longer than males, many of these additional years are spent in poor health. 4. An unintended consequence of greater access to health care globally is increases in mortality from diseases and disorders linked to antibiotic resistance.
  • 4. Main findings (continued) 4 5. Among age groups, the under-5 age group experienced huge reductions in mortality between 1950 and 2017, while adults have made much less progress, particularly adult males. 6. HIV remains a massive public health threat, particularly because global financing has plateaued, domestic health spending has stayed low among high-burden countries, and its incidence has not declined as quickly in younger as in older populations. 7. Risk factors: high blood pressure and smoking are leading global risk factors linked to early death and disability at all ages. 8. SDGs: Despite progress, achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in doubt. To meet SDGs, there is a need to increase progress on health-related indicators between 2017 and 2030.
  • 5. What’s new in GBD 2017 5 Improved statistical methods, new and more data sources 1. For the first time, a comprehensive series of population and fertility estimates were produced 2. Nineteen new causes of death and disability were added, for a total of 359 causes 3. Mortality • New population estimates led to substantial changes in mortality estimates in many countries • The analysis was extended to start in 1950
  • 6. 5. SDGs: added four new indicators, producing estimates for 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators • Subnational analyses of SDGs for subset of countries and analysis of trends by sex for select indicators 6. Risk factors: • Bullying victimization added as new risk factor • Examines how risks change according to level of development • More accurate method of estimating smoking risk What’s new in GBD 2017 (continued) 6
  • 7. 7 What is the Global Burden of Disease? A systematic, scientific effort to quantify the comparative magnitude of health loss due to diseases, injuries, and risk factors by age, sex, and geographies for specific points in time.
  • 8. What is a disability-adjusted life year (DALY)? 8
  • 9. Important new feature of GBD: comprehensive population and fertility estimates produced for the first time. The GBD study’s new estimates improve upon previously available estimates in three key ways: 1. Precision. Current standard for population estimates is five-year age groupings, but GBD estimates are for single years. 2. Standardization. GBD uses the same methodology to estimate populations across locations, ensuring valid comparisons. 3. Transparency. All data sources/methods are published, publicly accessible, and free. Population/fertility 9
  • 10. Population growth rate, 2010–2017 Recent population growth has been highest in Africa, Asia, and South America 10 • Global population increased from 2.6 billion in 1950 to 7.6 billion in 2017. • Despite growth, approximately half of 195 countries recorded total fertility rates below the replacement rate of approximately 2.05 in 2017.
  • 11. 11 • Immigration can also drive increases in population despite total fertility rates below replacement level. This is the case in several countries in the Middle East (see top-left quadrant of figure). • Of the 60 countries with a total fertility rate of 3.0 or greater in 2017, most are in sub-Saharan Africa, where the proportion of women whose contraceptive needs are being met is 46.5%. Countries plotted by total fertility rate and population growth rate, 2017
  • 12. 12 Fertility rates for females under 25, by number of countries, 2017 Fertility in females under 25 varies widely by country • Among countries, total fertility under age 25 ranged from a low of 0.08 births to a high of 2.4 births. • Since 1990, countries have achieved nearly universal declines in fertility under age 25, which is a key indicator for Sustainable Development Goal 3. • Still, in 50 countries, total fertility was higher in females younger than 25 than in those 30 or older.
  • 13. Highlights 1. Rapid progress in life expectancy from 1950 to 2017: • Males, up from 48 years in 1950 to 71 years in 2017 • Females, up from 53 years in 1950 to 76 years in 2017 2. Among age groups, the under-5 age group experienced huge reductions in mortality between 1950 and 2017, while adults have made much less progress, particularly adult males. 3. While females tend to live longer than males, the gap in life expectancy between them varies substantially by level of socioeconomic development. 13 Mortality
  • 14. 14 Total number of global deaths, 1950–2017 • The proportion of deaths in those over age 75 increased from 12% of total deaths in 1950 to 39% in 2017. • There have been dramatic declines in under-5 mortality, but there were still 5.4 million deaths among children under 5 worldwide in 2017.
  • 15. 15 *SDI captures three different aspects of development: income, education, and fertility Under-5 mortality by level of socioeconomic development, 1990–2017 • Declines in under-5 mortality were fastest among countries in the lowest quintile of Socio-demographic Index (SDI)*
  • 16. 16 Life expectancy: Number of years a person is expected to live based on their present age. Healthy life expectancy (HALE): the number of years that a person at a given age can expect to live in full health, taking into account mortality and disability. Highlights: 1. In 2017 globally, life expectancy at birth was 73 years, but healthy life expectancy at birth was only 63 years. • This means on average, 10 years of life were spent in poor health in 2017. 2. While females tend to live longer than males, the gap in life expectancy between them varies substantially by level of socioeconomic development. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy
  • 17. 17 Life expectancy at birth, both sexes, 2017 Life expectancy There was rapid progress in life expectancy from 1950 to 2017: • Males, up from 48 years in 1950 to 71 years in 2017 • Females, up from 53 years in 1950 to 76 years in 2017
  • 18. 18 Life expectancy at birth by sex and level of socioeconomic development, 2017 Disparities in life expectancy between males and females were greatest in countries at the high-middle and middle levels of development.
  • 19. 19 Healthy life expectancy at birth, both sexes, 2017 Healthy life expectancy (HALE) • Globally, in 2017, life expectancy was 73 years, but HALE was only 63 years – on average, 10 years of life were spent in poor health in 2017.
  • 20. 20 Performance in healthy life expectancy across regions Healthy life expectancy above or below expected amount based on level of development, GBD super- regions, 2017
  • 21. 21 Extra years lived by females compared to males in good health versus poor health, 2017 While females tend to live longer than males, many of these extra years are spent in poor health.
  • 22. 22 Early death and disability is measured in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Highlights 1. From 1990 to 2017, 41% decrease in communicable diseases and neonatal disorders 2. From 1990 to 2017, 40% increase in non-communicable diseases 3. Large disparities persist in health and disease burden by sex and level of development Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs)
  • 23. 23 ‡Ranking based on number of all-ages DALYs §SDI captures three different aspects of development: income, education, and fertility COPD = chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Leading causes of early death and disability‡ at lowest and highest levels of development, 2017
  • 24. 24 Highlights 1. Between 1990 and 2017, early death from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders dropped, with the greatest declines in the least developed countries. 2. Progress in reducing mortality from some common diseases has stalled or reversed, primarily for non-communicable diseases such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers. 3. An unintended consequence of increased access to health care globally is increases in mortality from diseases and disorders linked to antibiotic resistance. Causes of death
  • 25. 25 Leading causes of early death, 1990–2017 **Ranking based on number of years lived with disability (YLLs) at all ages
  • 26. 26 Change in mortality* due to extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, 2007–2017 Since 2007, there have been rapid increases in emerging diseases and disorders due to antibiotic use or resistance, including extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, cellulitis, and Clostridium difficile diarrhea. *Reflects annual rate of change in all-ages deaths per 100,000
  • 27. 27 **Death rate at all ages and for both sexes Global mortality** from cardiovascular diseases, 2007–2017 • Medications that prevent deaths from cardiovascular diseases, such as those that lower blood pressure and cholesterol, are among the most cost-effective interventions available to health systems. • Despite this, mortality from cardiovascular diseases has increased since 2007 worldwide.
  • 28. 28 Years lived with disability (YLDs): Years of life lived with any short-term or long-term health loss Highlights 1. Globally, the total burden of YLDs increased by 52% between 1990 and 2017. 2. The burden of disability was driven mainly by non- communicable diseases (NCDs), which caused 80% of YLDs in 2017. 3. Disability from metabolic conditions, such as type 2 diabetes and fatty liver disease, increased around the world and across levels of development. Morbidity
  • 29. 29 Number of total YLDs, global, both sexes, by age group and cause, 2017 • The burden of disability is most concentrated in working-age people. • Years lived with disability (YLDs) represent time lived in less-than- ideal health.
  • 30. 30 **Headache disorders mainly include migraine. †Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease Leading causes of global all-age disability, 1990 and 2017 While diabetes emerged as the fourth-leading cause of disability globally in 2017, many of the leading causes of disability in 1990 remain so in 2017, namely low back pain, headaches, and depression.
  • 31. 31 Annual change in rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to risk factors, both sexes, age-adjusted, 1990–2017 Risk factors: changes in early death and disability attributable to risk factors
  • 32. 32 Leading risk factors causing early death and disability, by sex, 2017 Risk factors Smoking and high systolic blood pressure are global leading risk factors *Rank based on number of all-ages DALYs
  • 33. 33 Regional** trends in high blood pressure and smoking The disease burden caused by these two risk factors, compared to the burden expected based on the level of socioeconomic development, varied considerably by super-region. **GBD super-regions High blood pressure Smoking
  • 34. 34 About the SDG Index: The SDG index is a composite measure, ranging from 0 to 100, of overall progress toward meeting the SDGs. It takes into account 40 performance indicators for the health-related SDGs. This analysis of the health-related SDGs is based on GBD 2017 estimates. Highlights 1. Based on past trends, most countries’ SDG index scores are projected to rise between 2017 and 2030. 2. By 2030, the under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries likely to attain their targets. Sustainable Development Goals
  • 35. 35 Sustainable Development Goals Index* score, 2017 Global average SDG index score, 2017: 59.4
  • 36. 36 Global rate of new cases of HIV, 2017** Global deaths due to road injuries, 2017 Global prevalence of alcohol use, 2017 **Median Estimates †Heavier drinking was weighted more than light drinking SDGs: Differences by sex in 2017
  • 37. 37 Global under-5 mortality rate Looking ahead to 2030: despite progress, achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in doubt SDG target: Reduce under-5 mortality to 25 per 100,000 live births or below by 2030
  • 38. 38 Global maternal mortality ratio Looking ahead to 2030: despite progress, achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in doubt SDG target: Reduce maternal mortality ratio to 70 per 100,000 live births or below by 2030
  • 39. 39 Global prevalence of overweight in children aged 2 to 4 Looking ahead to 2030: despite progress, achievement of SDGs by 2030 is in doubt SDG target: Eliminate child overweight by 2030
  • 40. Questions? Media contacts • Kelly Bienhoff +1-206-897-2884 (office) +1-913-302-3817 (mobile) kbien@uw.edu • Dean Owen +1-206-897-2858 (office) +1-206-434-5630 (mobile) dean1227@uw.edu

Editor's Notes

  1. Mortality: includes 622 new data sources, for a total of 8,259 data sources Cause of Death: Estimated mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries from 1980 to 2017 19 causes added compared to GBD 2017 Numerous data sources, including including 127 country-years of vital registration data and 502 country-years of cancer registry data. YLDs/disability Based on more data than ever before and includes 68,781 data sources used for the analysis of nonfatal causes of disease and injury GBD 2017 added 19 new causes to its nonfatal analysis, for a total of 354 causes The study includes a more detailed analysis of disability than previous versions of GBD. Changes to GBD 2017 Cause list (as of December 2017)   New Causes Added to GBD 2017 Cause List Non-rheumatic valvular heart disease Non-rheumatic calcific aortic valve disease Child cause of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease Non-rheumatic degenerative mitral valve disease Child cause of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease Other non-rheumatic valve diseases Child cause of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/Non-alcoholic seatohepatitis (NFLP/NASH) Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) Poliomyelitis Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) Poisoning by carbon monoxide Poisoning by other means Subarachnoid hemorrhage Child cause of Stroke Diabetes mellitus type 1 Child cause of Diabetes mellitus Diabetes mellitus type 2 Child cause of Diabetes mellitus Myelodysplastic, myeloproliferative, and other hematopoietic neoplasms Child cause of Other neoplasms Benign and in situ intestinal neoplasms Child cause of Other neoplasms Benign and in situ cervical and uterine neoplasms Child cause of Other neoplasms Liver cancer due to NASH Child cause of Liver cancer   Causes Combined in GBD 2017 Cause List Autistic spectrum disorders Combined Autism and Asperger syndrome into one cause   Causes Split in GBD 2017 Cause List Abortion and miscarriage Previously maternal abortion, miscarriage, and ectopic pregnancy Ectopic pregnancy Split from maternal abortion, miscarriage, and ectopic pregnancy Refraction disorders Split from refraction and accommodation disorders Presbyopia Split from refraction and accommodation disorders   Causes Replaced in GBD 2017 Cause List Chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 1 Replaced CKD due to diabetes mellitus Chronic kidney disease due to diabetes mellitus type 2 Replaced CKD due to diabetes mellitus  
  2. SDGs Updated and improved analysis of progress toward the SDGs. Produces estimates for 41 of the 52 health-related SDG indicators, including four new indicators. It also includes subnational analyses of SDG progress for a subset of countries and analysis of trends by sex for select indicators. Revised methods to project progress between 2017 and 2030. Risk factors Based on more data than ever before and includes 46,749 sources used for the analysis of risk factors affecting health GBD 2017 added one new risk factor (bullying victimization) to the analysis The study also examines how risks change according to level of development and includes a more accurate method of estimating smoking risk.
  3. Figure attribution: http://d-rev.org/2014/04/dalys-cost-effectiveness-analysis-brilliance/ (accessed November, 2018)
  4. Precision. The current standard for population estimates is five-year age groupings (for example, number of 5–9-year-olds in a population), but GBD estimates are for single years (for example, number of 6-year-olds in a population). Converting these five-year groupings into one-year groupings requires mathematical steps that can introduce errors and uncertainty into the one-year estimates. Estimating single-year groupings from the start is more accurate Standardization. GBD uses same methodology to estimate population for every location and year. Ensures valid comparisons between different places and/or times. Transparency. All data sources and methods used are published and publicly accessible free of charge.
  5. Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) is the number of years that a person at a given age can expect to live in full health, taking into account mortality and disability.
  6. Lower is better.
  7. From GBD 2017 Collab version of tools Link: https://collab2017.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ username: GBDCollaborator password: GBD2017
  8. From GBD 2017 Collab version of tools Link: https://collab2017.healthdata.org/gbd-compare/ username: GBDCollaborator password: GBD2017
  9. For more explanation of SDG methods, please refer to publication “Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017”
  10. The analysis broke down several SDG indicators by sex. Here, we highlight three indicators: rate of new HIV cases, deaths due to road injuries, and prevalence of alcohol use. As shown below, males had worse outcomes for most indicators.