Embracing Theory of Change
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This document discusses theories of change and how they are being used at ILRI to guide planning and ensure accountability. It provides an example of a theory of change diagram for an index-based livestock insurance project. The key points are: 1. Theories of change emphasize how research outputs will translate into impacts and explain the assumptions behind this causal logic. 2. An example theory of change diagram for an index-based livestock insurance project is presented, showing how research, products, outcomes, and impacts are linked. 3. Theories of change need to clarify the evidence supporting the causal pathways, assumptions being made, and how change will occur at different levels and spheres of influence.
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Embracing Theory of Change
- 1. Embracing theory of change Tom Randolph, Jane Poole and Michael Kidoido ILRI Institute Planning Meeting 4-7 October 2016
- 2. What is this talk about Theory of Change? • Accountability and need to explain how our activities will lead to the impact we want • We used to use logical framework (logframes) – Focus on activities and outputs with leaps of faith to objectives and goals • Theory of Change framework adopted by CGIAR – More emphasis on how outputs will translate into impact – Understanding how change will happen and assumptions we are making – Being mainstreamed for M&E and learning Learn to talk the ToC !! Theory ?!??! Isn’t that what science is about: explaining cause & effect??
- 3. Health warning • No agreed standard interpretation or presentation An art form – as many different interpretations as there are people working with ToC Focus on the general spirit, not on the details • Needs to explain: 1. Our cause-effect logic 2. Our responsibility 3. How change happens at all levels
- 4. At the Core: Our theory of why it will work (IBLI example)Research Economic principles + Remote sensing Output Index- based Insurance concept Outcome Inclusive commer cial insuranc e product Outcome Poor livestock keepers are clients Development Outcome Higher and more stable income Impact Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers The GOALA possible SOLUTION
- 5. Research Economic principles + Remote sensing Output Index- based Insurance concept Outcome Inclusive commer cial insuranc e product Outcome Poor livestock keepers are clients Development Outcome Higher and more stable income Impact Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers The GOALA possible SOLUTION At the Core: Our theory of why it will work (IBLI example)
- 6. Research Economic principles + Remote sensing Output Index- based Insurance concept Outcome Inclusive commer cial insuranc e product Outcome Poor livestock keepers are clients Development Outcome Higher and more stable income Impact Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers • What evidence supports this theory? • If evidence is weak, what assumptions are we making? Economic simulation modeling Role of income smoothing in poverty studies Pastoralists perceive benefits and are willing to pay repeatedly Product can be profitable for commercial companies Pay-outs effectively smooth income At the Core: Our theory of why it will work (IBLI example)
- 7. Sphere of Interest Sphere of Influence Sphere of Control Setting it in an Impact Pathway: How? Who?Research Economic principles + Remote sensing Output Index- based Insurance concept ResearchOutcome Inclusive commercial insurance product - Pilot - At scale DevelopmentOutcome Poor livestock keepers are clients - Pilot - At scale DevelopmentOutcome Higher and more stable income Impact Stronger resilience for poor cattle keepers
- 8. Sphere of Interest MEL for Development Effectiveness Sphere of Influence MEL for Research Use & Effectiveness Sphere of Control MEL for Research Relevance & Quality STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT SDGs Sub-IDOs, IDOs, SLOs Changes in policies and institutions Rapid assessment and learning loops Credit: Tonya Scheutz, Indicators Task Force Highlighting how change will happen
- 9. Strong growth systems Fragile growth systems High growth with externalities Corporate Services People & Organizational Development Communications and Knowledge Management Business Development Capacity Development Intellectual Property / Legal Regional Representation Research Methods Sustainabl e Livestock Systems Policy, Value Chains and Livelihood s BECA Impact at Scale Livestock Genetics Feed and Forages Developme nt Animal and Human Health An initial ILRI theory of change Sphere of control Sphere of influence Sphere of interest . SO3:Increasedcapacities SO1:ImprovedPractices SO2:Increasedinvestment What we do… Goals (Impacts)Outcomes ImprovedFood&NutritionSecurity ReducedPoverty Develop, test, adapt and promote science- cased practices; Provide compelling evidence in ways that persuade decision makers; increase capacity among ILRI key stakeholders and the institution itself Assumptions (Critical success factors) • Science is right • ILRI is able to influence decision makers • ILRI grows capacity • ILRI is fit for purpose • ILRI is able to secure sustainable funding Sustainability Increased productivity Increased resilience Improved food safety Increased income & employment IDOs
- 10. Livestock CRP Flagship ToC
- 11. Why is it important for us to talk the ToC? • Being applied to guide our planning at various levels: ILRI, programs, CRPs • Makes us keep an eye on impact and how it will be achieved • Plays to our training as scientists – Emphasizes the role of evidence – Challenge our assumptions • Can make us more convinced ….. and more convincing!
- 12. Extracted from: Strategic overview of CGIAR Research programs Part I. Theories of Change and Impact Pathways (December 2012), ISPC
- 13. This presentation is licensed for use under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence. better lives through livestock ilri.org ILRI thanks all donors and organizations who globally supported its work through their contributions to the CGIAR system
Editor's Notes
- There MUST be a CGIAR logo or a CRP logo. You can copy and paste the logo you need from the final slide of this presentation. Then you can delete that final slide To replace a photo above, copy and paste this link in your browser: http://www.flickr.com/photos/ilri/sets/72157632057087650/detail/ Find a photo you like and the right size, copy and paste it in the block above.
- Do we want to differentiate between Research Outcomes and Development Outcomes??
- Do we want to differentiate between Research Outcomes and Development Outcomes??
- Typically we focus on our output and wave our hands about how it will translate into impact ToC makes us spell out why it will work and helps us sharpen our thinking and prioritize what we need to pay attention to
- Typically we focus on our output and wave our hands about how it will translate into impact ToC makes us spell out why it will work and helps us sharpen our thinking and prioritize what we need to pay attention to
- Typically we focus on our output and wave our hands about how it will translate into impact ToC makes us spell out why it will work and helps us sharpen our thinking and prioritize what we need to pay attention to
- Typically we focus on our output and wave our hands about how it will translate into impact ToC makes us spell out why it will work and helps us sharpen our thinking and prioritize what we need to pay attention to
- Approach for identifying indicators needs to be position within a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework. It is not the whole range of responsibility for the task force, but since as a system we did not have one the group developed / drafted one.
- Not sure if to include ‘impact pathways’ on the diagram or better to call them ‘trajectories’ as per the strategy – less confusion? Did we agree if to include Research and Development Outcomes – if so then we need to split the middle part! I would put in-between the middle and the end a list of the sorts of Development Outcomes that need to happen to get reduced poverty and improved food security (BY ILRI) which somehow relate to our programs – like: increased productivity, improved human & animal health, sustainably managed eco-systems goods & services, increase resilience of the poor to climate change & other shocks (i.e. just poach some of the IDOs!!)
- Approach for identifying indicators needs to be position within a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning Framework. It is not the whole range of responsibility for the task force, but since as a system we did not have one the group developed / drafted one.
- Do we want to differentiate between Research Outcomes and Development Outcomes??
- Another option for explaining…