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The global livestock sector: Opportunities and challenges


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Presented by Jimmy Smith at the ILRI-World Bank High Level Consultation on the Global Livestock Agenda by 2020, Nairobi, 12- 13 March 2012

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The global livestock sector: Opportunities and challenges

  1. 1. The Global Livestock Sector Production systems for the future: Opportunities and Challenges balancing trade-offs between food production, efficiency, livelihoods and the environment Jimmy Smith (ILRI) M. Herrero and P.K. Thornton WCCA/Nairobi Forum PresentationILRI-World Bank High Level Consultation on the Global st Livestock Agenda by 2020 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi Nairobi, 12- 13 March 2012
  2. 2. Overview The big picture–global drivers and trends • Feeding the world • Price fluctuations • Population and urbanization • Poverty Trends in the global livestock sector • Consumption • Food production • Trade Pressing issues in the global livestock sector • Climate change • Water • Land • Human and animal diseases • Over consumption Challenging issues–divergent views
  3. 3. The big picture –global drivers andtrends
  4. 4. Feeding the world 2.5 billion more1 billion hungry today to feed by 2050 ? FAO: SOFA2011
  5. 5. Additional food needed 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Additional grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 Human Livestock consumption 430 million MTMonogastrics mostly 458 million MT Biofuels 160 million MT
  6. 6. Volatile pricesImpacts on livestock sector and the poor? Blip or emerging trend? FAO: SOFA2011
  7. 7. A growing–and urbanizing– population Photo by NYT
  8. 8. Population growth by region 1750−2050
  9. 9. Urbanization Source: Economist
  10. 10. Changes in global poverty indicators % of population living on less than $1.25/day • 1990−41.7% • 2005−25.2% Millions of people living on less than $1.25/day • 1990−1,818 • 2005−1,374
  11. 11. Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day−2010> 8060−8040−6020−40< 20 11 data
  12. 12. Trends in theglobal livestocksector
  13. 13. Consumption of livestock products Consumption continues to rise with income and urbanization Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption Highest rates of increase are in the developing world Livestock products contribute: 17% of global kilocalorie consumption 33% of global protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008) Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food-insecure people (Gerber et al. 2007)
  14. 14. Projected global consumption in 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption Year Meat Milk (kg) Meat Milk (Mt) (kg) (Mt)Developing 2002 28 44 137 222countries 2050 44 78 326 585Developed 2002 78 202 102 265countries 2050 94 216 126 295 Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
  15. 15. Global value of production of all livestock products Herrero et al. 2011
  16. 16. Where does theworld’s food come from? Herrero et al. 2009
  17. 17. Growing trade in livestock commodities– with impacts also at local level FAO: SOFA 2009
  18. 18. Pressing global issuesin the livestock sector ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  19. 19. Climate change What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity?Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050 Courtesy of Andy Jarvis
  20. 20. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kg of animal protein producedLarge inefficiencies in the developing world–an opportunity? Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
  21. 21. A global water crisis 2 billion people lack access Demand is growing; freshwater is getting scarcer 70% of total freshwater use is for agriculture, of which 31% is for livestock
  22. 22. Livestock and land use Land use • 3.4 billion hectares (about 26% of emerged lands) • low intensity in developing countries but growing in Latin America (this accounts for 80% of deforestation in LAC) • marginal land frontier exhausted • 20% of rangelands are degraded (higher in the dry lands) Extent of feed-crops • 470 million hectares (about 33% of arable land) • cereals: production growth mainly based on intensification / regional distribution of crops • soybean: production growth based on expansion in a limited number of countries (20% of deforestation in the neotropics) 22 Steinfeld et al 2006
  23. 23. What role for rangelands?• Largest land use system• Increasingly fragmented• Potentially a large C sink• PES: important source of income diversification• Difficulties in: Measuring and monitoring C stocks Establishment of payment schemes Dealing with mobile pastoralists Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)
  24. 24. World Land Acquisition
  25. 25. Livestock and human disease Animal source foods are the biggest contributor to food-borne disease Diseases transmitted from livestock and livestock products kill more people each year than HIV or malaria One new human disease emerges every 2 months− 20% of these from livestock (Jones et al., 2008)
  26. 26. Projected global consumption in 2050 Enough? Annual per capita Total consumption consumption Year Meat Milk Meat Milk (kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt)Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 2050 44 78 326 585Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 2050 94 216 126 295 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2009 Too much?
  27. 27. Animal welfare?
  28. 28. Challenging issues –divergent views ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  29. 29. Large or small farms? Land consolidation vs growth and intensification of the smallholder sector Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment) Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services? Smallholder sector fragmented: What actors are needed to support it? Trajectory of change?
  30. 30. Supermarkets or informal sector? ‘Supermarket revolution’ took off in 1990s Increases in market share vary around the world General features • Impacts the rich first • Vertical integration of food markets • Threat to smallholder participation Effects not same for all products • First in processed foods (flour, oil, condiments) • Last in fresh foods (meat, dairy, fruits and veg) Informal milk market ILRI/Mann 80% in India
  31. 31. Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods Use of biomass– for soil or feed (or fuel) Reduction of animal numbers– implications for livelihoods Producing with smaller environmental footprint
  32. 32. To eat or not to eat . . . meat, milk and fish1 billion 2 billionundernourished overweight
  33. 33. Main messages The big picture • Feeding the world is possible • Sustaining the natural resource base is possible • Reducing absolute poverty is possible Trends • Demand for livestock products continues to rise • Livestock systems producing much of the World’s food • Vast divide between regions and countries but increasingly interconnected Pressing issues • Livestock impact on all global development issues • Need for reliable evidence-based assessments of hard trade-offs Challenging issues • Organization within the sector • Managing trade offs at multiple scales • Achieving equity