Pingali a4 nh-ispc
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Joint A4NH/ISPC workshop on nutrition
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Pingali a4 nh-ispc
- 1. Agricultural Policy – getting beyond the pre-occupation with staple crops College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Prabhu Pingali Professor & Director Tata-Cornell Agriculture and Nutrition Initiative
- 2. Agriculture & Food Supply Policies Persistence of Green Revolution focus on staple grains Poor support for coarse grains, legumes, lentils, etc Lack of attention to high relative prices of micro-nutrient dense food – horticulture, livestock products High costs of smallholder linkage to organized food chains 2
- 3. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 World kcal/capita/day Other Animal fats Meat Fruits - Excluding Wine Vegetable Oils Pulses Sugar & Sweeteners Starchy Roots Other cereals Rice (Milled Equivalent) Maize and products Wheat and products Source: FAOSTAT Global average dietary composition, 1969-2011
- 5. 37% 42% 41% 8% 9% 11% 40% 41% 42% 14% 8% 6% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 World kcal/capita/day Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Source: FAOSTAT Global calorie consumption from cereals 1969-2011
- 6. 23% 30% 36% 8% 15% 23% 1% 3% 6% 23% 29% 37% 18% 21% 30% 5% 4% 4% 79% 81% 66% 4% 7% 3% 10% 6% 48% 34% 31% 50% 52% 51% 1% 1% 8% 99% 93% 87% 71% 60% 56% 33% 43% 38% 22% 13% 9% 11% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 India Kenya Thailand Japan Colombia kcal/capita/day Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Source: FAOSTAT Changes in calorie consumption from cereals in select countries, 1969-1971
- 7. Diets in developing countries will continue to diversify... Source: FAO, World agriculture: towards 2015/2030
- 8. … but staple crop production trends don’t reflect diet diversification
- 9. 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Global cereal production, 1969-2011
- 10. 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Global cereal food consumption 1969-2011
- 11. 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Difference in global cereal production and food consumption 1969-2011
- 13. 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Cereal production in Sub-Saharan Africa 1969-2011
- 14. 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Cereal food consumption in Sub- Saharan Africa 1969-2011
- 15. -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Difference in cereal production and food consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa 1969- 2011
- 16. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Cereal production in Southern Asia 1969-2011
- 17. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Cereal consumption in Southern Asia 1969-2011
- 18. -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 1969-1971 1989-1991 2009-2011 1000 tons Wheat and products Maize and products Rice (Milled Equivalent) Other cereals Difference in cereal production and food consumption in Southern Asia 1969-2011
- 19. Source: NSSO Reports: Household Consumption Expenditure in India Declining per capita cereal consumption rural and urban India 1993/94 and 2004/05
- 20. Why is producer response low? Price supports, input subsidies & R&D biased towards stale crop productivity growth Poorly developed market infrastructure for perishable products – fruit, vegetables, dairy & meat High skill & knowledge requirements for switching to higher value crops High transactions costs for smallholder integration into the FFV value chains
- 21. -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 % excess Indian over int'l Excess of Indian over international prices (%) 1983- 2014 Rice Wheat Domestic & International prices for staple cereals – India, 1983 - 2014
- 22. Food Security Policies – staple grain fundamentalism Conflating food security with a narrowly defined set of staple grains High emphasis on price supports & trade distortions High cost of managing and disposing “Food Security Stocks” Disconnect between the policy & the food security needs of the rural poor
- 23. Donor funding and CGIAR priorities are not consistent with the diet transformation
- 24. What are the options for crop- neutral intensification? Level playing field for policy support Infrastructure investments for transport & storage of perishable products Market development – investment in local markets, and reduce transactions costs of integrating into value chains Rationalize food stock policies, including local procurement & stocking options Delinking individual food security from national staple grain self-sufficiency 24
- 25. Thank You Learn more about the Tata-Cornell Agriculture & Nutrition Initiative at http://tci.cals.cornell.edu and http://blogs.cornell.edu/agricultureandnutrition/