Idiro Analytics - What is Rotational Churn and how can we tackle it?

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What is
rotational churn
– and how can
we tackle it?

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What we’ll cover
1. Definition
2. The problem of rotational churn
3. Effects
4. Causes & categories
5. Combating spinning

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What is rotational churn?
(also known as spinning)
• One of your customers gets a new subscription from you
• …and gets rid of the old SIM (and sometimes the phone too)
• …without telling you
So this customer appears
on your systems as 2
people:
•A leaver
•A new joiner

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Rotational Churn in Context
How a typical spinner is likely to behave
when they change their handset
Spin
Churn or spin, to
best new customer
offer
Upgrade
Churn and bring
their number or
upgrade
Brand loyalty
High Low
Loyaltyto
phonenumber
HighLow

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The Cost of Rotational Churn
1. Spinning wastes money and resources on:
• Welcome packs, welcome calls…
• Save / winback,
1. The Churn rate is overstated
2. Acquisition campaign success rates are overstated
3. Spinning can increase churn - many spinners are
potential true churners
4. Valuable customer history data for spinners is lost.

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What Triggers Rotational Churn?
All manner of things...
1. The customer’s phone is stolen or permanently lost.
2. The customer’s phone is broken.
3. The customer gets a new phone with work, from the same
operator as they are currently on.
4. The customer receives a phone as an unsolicited gift
5. The customer wants a new phone e.g. because he / she
perceives her phone is out of date.
6. The customer decides to change her number
7. The customer wishes to avoid a debt and stay on the
same network

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Measuring Rotational Churn
4 methods:
1. IMSI / IMEI matching
2. Market research (calling customers)
3. Name & address matching
4. Idiro Fingerprinting
Of the 4 methods, Idiro Fingerprinting is by far the
most comprehensive. The other 3 should also be use
where possible.

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Idiro Fingerprinting:
the solution
Communication
patterns in
communities
are relatively
stable over
time.

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Idiro Fingerprinting:
the solution
However, if
someone were
to leave the
community…

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Idiro Fingerprinting:
the solution
They leave a
structural hole in
the community.

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Idiro Fingerprinting:
the solution
If a newcomer fills
this structural hole
and re-establishes
many of the links
of the person who
departed then the
newcomer is very
likely to be the
same person who
departed.

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How Idiro Identifies Spinners
Principle 1:
• A subscriber may change the phone number
as a spinner, but this would not change his
community.
Principle 2:
• Social networks are fairly stable over time.
• The community is stable over time and
everyone has his unique community.

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Output of Idiro
Fingerprinting
Churner Newcomer
Probability that Churner and
Newcomer are the same person
7941 111111 7941 222222 99.3%
7941 345345 7941 369369 98.3%
7941 191191 7941 239111 95.0%
7941 909909 7941 897722 94.6%
7941 888111 7941 349922 82,1%
7941 167167 7941 224444 76.8%
7941 611009 7941 300011 71.1%
7941 171411 7941 800022 71.0%
• The Idiro Fingerprinting model matches customers to new
joiners – and gives a probability score
• Idiro also provides consulting support in tackling the
problem of rotational churners

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Exploiting the results
of Idiro Fingerprinting
Measure
Focus
Change
•Correct the headline churn rate
•Correct the acquisition rate and cost per
subscriber
•MIS / market research on spinners to segment
by:
•Acquisition offer (MIS)
•Retail channel (MIS)
•Trigger (mkt research)
•Etc.
•Develop improved upgrade propositions / care
strategy / communications to address different
types of spin -> reduce spin and true churn rates

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For more information on
rotational churn and how to
tackle it, contact Idiro
info@idiro.com
www.idiro.com