This document discusses the importance of futuring to understand potential threats and opportunities that may not be obvious through traditional strategic planning. It notes that futuring can help companies identify potential disruptions through exploring plausible futures over longer time horizons of 10-15 years. The document describes an example futuring project that The Inovo Group facilitates where a core team collaboratively builds scenarios and stories of potential futures. The project aims to produce action plans and an ongoing monitoring system to help organizations adapt to changing futures. An example case study is provided of a company in agriculture that developed a new strategic direction through such a futuring project to address threats from automation.

1. Futuring
Understanding the Futures that are Critical to your
Growth
Copyright © 2016 The Inovo Group LLC
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2. Why explore the future?
Those who rely exclusively on strategic planning processes
will miss non-obvious threats and opportunities.
Traditional Competitors Surprise Disruptors
Classic
Example
Happening
Today
Potential
Future
2

3. » Strategic planning is not sufficient to
prepare for potential disruption
» Mega-forces and trends analysis tells us
little that others don’t also see
» Cognitive biases make us poor predictors
Crux of the Problem
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“We always overestimate the
change that will occur in the
next two years and
underestimate the change
that will occur in the next
ten.”
Bill Gates

4. Futuring is Emerging as a Strategic Necessity
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Futuring is about what to do today.
Time (years)
-5 0 +5 +10 +15
Future
reality
Typical basis for
strategic planning
• Typical strategic plans: 2-3 year horizon and
based on linear trends
• In increasingly VUCA world, the linear future
never happens
• A 2-3 year window for disruptive
opportunities/attacks isn’t enough
• In response, the future cannot be predicted, but it
can be thought about systematically
Volatile Uncertain Complex Ambiguous

5. Imagine: A Collaborative Futuring Project
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Create a shared understanding of
plausible futures, collaboratively
Discover proprietary futures
specific to your company
Identify potential disruptions
Establish a direct connection to today
Duration: 1-6 months
Team Size: 2-8 core team members
Key Events: 1-4 group sessions

6. Using A Proven Futuring Methodology
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Turning research into action.
Storytelling
Gathering
& Learning
Activation
& Monitoring
Scenario
Building

7. Collaboratively Producing These Sorts of Deliverables
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a set of articulated futures that convey the situations and
experiences of people 10 – 15 years from now
Future scenarios and stories:
forecasts of specific outcomes provides a basis for discussion
and metrics for monitoring what is happening
Super-forecasts:

8. Ending with a Structured Way to Monitor the Future
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what to look for, where to look, who to engage with and
what projects to initiate as the future unfolds
a system for on-going, continuously updated tracking of
the items listed in the action plans
Action plans: Sensing-Action Monitor:
Future Times

9. A Case Study in Agriculture
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» A $100M business division making precision food processing
equipment with an 80% market share in their segment was
seeing indications that due to AI and robotics, their main
product line would eventually become extinct
» In a 3 month project, they developed insights into
alternative futures that indicated a new strategic
direction
» Combining several key insights, the company established
a completely new, non-adjacent business and they’re
very excited about the prospects for its future
Labor Woes
– Robots &
Automation
Plant
Factories
Protein Sources
and Freshness
Energy
& Light

10. The Inovo Group
Copyright © 2016 The Inovo Group LLC 10
For more information, check out the futuring
resources on our website, or drop Larry a line.
With Inovo as collaboration
partner and guide, clients
transform their offerings,
cultures and innovation
capabilities.
Larry Schmitt
Managing Partner and Co-founder
Ann Arbor, Michigan
P: +1 (734) 604-3887
E: lschmitt@TheInovoGroup.com