Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020

VOTING
INTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public3
Voting Intention:
March 2020
All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention
Conservative lead = +20Conservative lead = +22
52%
30%
9%
0%
4%
5%
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dems
Brexit Party
Green
Other
51%
31%
8%
0%
4%
6%
Conservative
Labour
Lib Dem
Brexit Party
Green
Other
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 713. Margin of error is
displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance
that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind
when calculating party lead figures.
How do you intend to vote in the General Election? Will you vote…?

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Mar17
May17
Jul17
Sep17
Nov17
Jan18
Mar18
May18
Jul18
Sep18
Nov18
Jan19
Mar19
May19
Jul19
Sep19
Nov19
Jan20
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
Headline voting intention:
2015 General Election
4
52%
Conservative
%
March
2020
Johnson as PM
(July 19)
Mar20
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General
Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
30%
Labour
General Election
How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan04
Apr04
Jul04
Oct04
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Oct16
Jan17
Apr17
Jul17
Oct17
Jan18
Apr18
Jul18
Oct18
Jan19
Apr19
Jul19
Oct19
Jan20
Miliband elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
Johnson as PM
(July 19)
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(June 07)
Headline voting intention:
January ‘04 – March ’20
%
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General
Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
March
2020
52% Conservative
30% Labour
9% Lib Dem
0% The Brexit Party
4% Green
0% UKIP
General Election
5
How would you vote if there were an election tomorrow?
Mar20

SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY LEADERS

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | March 2020 | Version 1 | Public
Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The Government
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: March 2020
7
68%
14%
19%
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Satisfied
+5% swing
from Feb 2020
+8.5% swing
from Feb 2020
Net=-49
38%
9%
52%
Net=+7Net=+14%
+5.5% swing
from Feb 2020
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+ 13 - 16 March 2020. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and
% “dissatisfied”
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country / doing his/her job.
as Prime Minister /Leader of the Labour Party?
41%
10%
48%

Boris Johnson:
Satisfaction
Net = +14
March 2020
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-20
52%
Satisfied
9%
Don’t know
38%
Dissatisfied
July 2019 – March 2020
52%
Satisfied
38%
Dissatisfied
8
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?
52%
9%
38%
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13-16 March 2020

Boris Johnson:
Satisfaction among Conservative supporters
Net = +78%
March 2020
87%
Satisfied
4%
Don’t know
9%
Dissatisfied
July 2019 – March 2020
Base: 411 Conservative party supporters 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020
9
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing his job as prime minister?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jul-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
87%
Satisfied
9%
Dissatisfied
87%
4%
9%

Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2020)
10
Number of months after becoming prime minister
Netsatisfaction
Johnson
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Blair
Major
Cameron
Johnson
Brown
Thatcher
May
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his/her job as prime minister?

Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2020)
11
Blair’s gov
Major’s gov
Cameron’s gov
Johnson’s gov
Brown’s gov
Thatcher’s gov
May’s gov
Netsatisfaction
Johnson
Number of months after assuming government
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jeremy Corbyn:
Satisfaction
Net = -49%
March 2020
19%
Satisfied
14%
Don’t know
68%
Dissatisfied
September 2015 – March 2020
19%
Satisfied
68%
Dissatisfied
12
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the Labour
Party?
19%
14%
68%
Mar20

Corbyn
Corbyn
Blair
Smith
Kinnock
Miliband
Foot
Cameron
Duncan-smith
Hague
Howard
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders
(1980 – 2020)
Netsatisfaction
Number of months after becoming opposition leader
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
13
How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jeremy Corbyn:
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
Net = -10%
March 2020
41%
Satisfied
9%
Don’t know
51%
Dissatisfied
September 2015 – March 2020
41%
Satisfied
51%
Dissatisfied
Base: 284 Labour Party supporters aged 18+, 13-16 March 2020
14
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as leader of the
Labour party?
Mar-20
41%
10%
51%

ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

Economic Optimism Index
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
EOI = -54
March 2020
January 2007– March 2020
15%
Improve
13%
Stay the same
69%
Get worse
69%
13%
15%
3%
69%
Get worse
13%
Stay the
same
15%
Improve
3%
Don’t know
16
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get
worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, 13 – 16 March 2020

Economic Optimism Index
(1998-2020)
17
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1998
Oct1998
Jul1999
Apr2000
Jan2001
Oct2001
Jul2002
Apr2003
Jan2004
Oct2004
Jul2005
Apr2006
Jan2007
Oct2007
Jul2008
Apr2009
Jan2010
Oct2010
Jul2011
Apr2012
Jan2013
Oct2013
Jul2014
Apr2015
Jan2016
Oct2016
Jul2017
Apr2018
Jan2019
Oct2019
Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Net optimism
-54%
Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get
worse over the next 12 months?
Mar2020

LABOUR
LEADERSHIP
CONTEST
THE
CORONAVIRUS

Handling of the
Coronavirus
outbreak
39%
41%
47%
49%
52%
23%
13%
38%
35%
14%
Overall, how well or badly
do you think each of the
following have handled
the coronavirus outbreak
so far? If you do not know
who the person is, please
say so.
Fieldwork: 13-16 March
19
Boris Johnson
The Government
Very/fairly well
Net
well
+38
Very/fairly badly
Chris Whitty
The Chief Medical
Officer for England
Rishi Sunak
Chancellor of
the Exchequer
Matt Hancock
Secretary of State
for Health and Social Care
+14
+9
+28
+16

Government
measures in
response to the
Coronavirus
20
When thinking about the
different measures the
Government has taken so
far in order to tackle the
coronavirus outbreak, which
of the following statements
comes closest to your view?
3%
50%
42%
4%
The measures the
Government has taken go too
far and not all are necessary
The measures the Government
has taken are about right
The measures the Government
has taken do not go far enough
and more should be done
Don’t know

Likelihood of
self-isolating for
a week
21
34%
39%
1%
2%
13%
19%
25%
23%
14%
2%
Less than half
More than half
Don’t know
None of them
Hardly any of them
Less than half of them
Around half of them
More than half of them
Nearly all of them
All of them
As you may know, the
government has advised people
with mild symptoms, such as
having a high temperature or
continuous cough, to self-isolate
and stay at home for 7 days,
regardless of whether they have
been tested for the coronavirus.
How many people, if any, with
mild symptoms do you think will
follow this advice and self-isolate
themselves for seven days?

Handling of the
Coronavirus
outbreak
54%
77%
65%
40%
17%
27%As you may know, this
week’s /last week’s Budget
included measures to help
deal with the coronavirus
outbreak. From what you
know or have heard, how
helpful, if at all, do you
think these measures will
be overall in tackling the
coronavirus outbreak?
22
Very/fairly helpful
Net
helpful
+38
Among all
Among Conservative party supporters
Among Labour party supporters
Not very/at all helpful
+60
+14
Base: 1,003 British adults 18+, Conservative party supporters (411), Labour party supporters (284), 13-16 March 2020

Support for
Budget measures
in response to the
Coronavirus
77%
81%
82%
84%
87%
92%
10%
6%
5%
6%
6%
3
And to what extent, if at
all, do you support or
oppose each of the
following policies
announced in the Budget
to respond to the
coronavirus outbreak?
23
Support
Net
support
+89
Oppose
Providing a £5billion emergency
response fund for the NHS and
other public services
+81
+78
+75
+67
Providing a £500 million
hardship fund for councils in
England to help vulnerable
people in their areas
Meeting the costs of up to two
weeks’ worth of sick pay payments
for firms with fewer than 250 staff
Suspending business rates for a
year for companies such as shops,
cinemas, restaurants and hotels with
rateable value of less than £51,000
Providing “business interruption”
loans of up to £1.2million for small
businesses
Providing statutory sick pay for
all those advised to self-
isolate, even if they have not
presented with symptoms
+77

Response to the Coronavirus:
Bank of England Interest Rate Cut
As you may know, the Bank of England recently announced it was cutting base interest rates from 0.75
to 0.25 per cent to help deal with the potential economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. To what
extent, if at all, do you support or oppose this interest rate cut? Fieldwork: 13-16 March
24
Support
70% 12%
Oppose
Net support: +58

Cancellation of
events due to
coronavirus
71%
73%
75%
79%
19%
17%
14%
12%
And would you support or
oppose cancelling each of
the following events in
light of the coronavirus
outbreak? Fieldwork: 13-16
March
25
The UEFA
European Football
Championship
The remainder of the
season for the main
football leagues around
Britain
Support Net
support
+67
+61
+56
Oppose
+52
The FA Cup
The Wimbledon Tennis
Championships

Response to the Coronavirus:
Local and Mayoral Elections postponement
26
Support
72% 20%
Oppose
Net support: +52
As you may know England was scheduled to hold local and mayoral elections on the 7th of May
this year, but the government has announced these will now be postponed for a year due to the
coronavirus. Do you support or oppose postponing these elections? Fieldwork: 13-16 March

THE BUDGET

Rishi Sunak: Satisfaction
28
Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as
Chancellor of the Exchequer?
37%
32%
30%
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
Don’t know
Among all Among Conservative party supporters
45%
17%
37%
63%7%
30%
Net satisfaction: +28 Net satisfaction: +56

Satisfaction with the Chancellor of the Exchequer: 1976-2020
29
Base: c.1,000 British adults 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Can you tell me whether you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way … is doing his job as Chancellor
of the Exchequer?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-76
Mar-77
Apr-78
Jul-80
Mar-82
Jun-83
Mar-85
Mar-86
Mar-87
Mar-88
Mar-89
Mar-90
Mar-91
Mar-92
Mar-93
Dec-93
Dec-94
Nov-95
Dec-95
Nov-96
Dec-96
Jul-97
Feb-98
Mar-98
Mar-99
Feb-00
Mar-00
Jul-00
Sep-00
Nov-00
Mar-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Mar-04
Nov-05
Feb-06
Dec-06
Apr-07
Mar-08
Mar-10
Jun-10
Mar-11
Dec-11
Apr-12
Mar-13
Apr-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Mar-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Nov-17
Nov-18
Oct-19
Mar-20
HEALEY HOWE LAWSON MAJOR LAMONT CLARKE BROWN DARLING OSBORNE HAMMOND
%SATISFIED
JAVID
Rishi
Sunak

Opinion on the Budget proposals: 2014-2020
30
As you may know, the Government announced its 2020 budget this week/ last week. From what you
know or have heard, do you think the Budget proposals are a good thing or a bad thing….?
You personally For the country
54%
41%
38%
30%
46%
48%
22%
38%
42%
53%
44%
33%
March 2020
November 2017
March 2017
March 2016
July 2015
April 2014
45%
35%
33%
35%
45%
43%
24%
36%
39%
40%
38%
35%
March 2020
November 2017
March 2017
March 2016
July 2015
April 2014

Gideon Skinner
Research Director
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
Glenn Gottfried
Research Manager
glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com
Cameron Garrett
Senior Research Executive
cameron.garrett@ipsos.com
Ipsos MORI
March 2020 Political Monitor
For more information
Dylan Spielman
Research Executive
dylan.spielman@ipsos.com

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - March 2020