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2012 Russian views on NATO missile defense in light of upcoming summit

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2012 Russian views on NATO missile defense in light of upcoming summit

  1. 1. Ivory J. Sostand Advanced Technical Intelligence Center ijsostand@yahoo.com Unclas (808) 753-3111 This Briefing is: UNCLASSIFIED Russian views on NATO missile defense in light of upcoming summit
  2. 2. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Overview • (U) BLUF • (U) Alternative Scenario • (U) Map of Western Russia • (U) Map of Southwest Asia • (U) Assessment • (U) Questions • (U) Back up Slides • (U) Sources • (U) Concluding Remarks
  3. 3. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) BLUF (U) Russia is unlikely to change its opposition to the NATO missile defense shield. Russia views the deployment of the missile shield near it’s borders a U. S. attempt to gain more regional influence in Eastern European states once controlled by Russia.  Russia Fears that the Missile Defense Shield will undermine its own Nuclear Deterrent  Moscow agreed in 2010 to consider NATO’s proposal to cooperate on the U.S.-led missile shield, Russia has insisted that it should be run jointly, which NATO has rejected  Russia opposes the placement of Interceptor missiles in Romania and Poland  Wants written document stating that The missile defense system will not be used against Russia in any way  Russia activated a new incoming missile early warning system in Kaliningrad in response to US plans for a missile shield in Europe
  4. 4. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Alternative Scenario (U) Russia agrees to cooperate on the U.S.-led missile shield  Insisted that it should be run jointly  Wants control of system deployed along it’s borders  Written statement from U.S. that missile system would not be used against Russia  Joint computer-simulated missile defense exercises in Germany in March 2012
  5. 5. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Map of Western Russia UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
  6. 6. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Map of Southwest Asia UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
  7. 7. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Assessment (U) It is likely that Russia will not change it’s stance on opposing the missile defense shield deployment in Poland and Romania (U) It is possible that Russia would work jointly on a missile defense shield if they could control their portion or if The U.S. signed an agreement that the system would not be used against Russia (U) It is highly unlikely other members of NATO would agree to jointly run the missile shield with Russia
  8. 8. Questions Ivory J Sostand Advanced Technical Intelligence Center ijsostand@yahoo.com Unclas (808) 753-3111 This Briefing was: UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED
  9. 9. Backup slides (U) Back up Slides
  10. 10. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Proposed NATO missile shield UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15938494 (U) Infrared satellite system picks up heat signatures of hostile ballistic missiles launched towards NATO target. (U) Information is transmitted to ground stations for processing. (U) Processed information is then sent to NATO command and control network. UNCLASSIFIED
  11. 11. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Proposed NATO missile shield cont. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15938494 (U) The command and control network relays information to sensor and weapons systems in the region. (U) Once the missiles' engines burn out, the infrared satellite can no longer detect them.
  12. 12. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Proposed NATO missile shield cont. unclassified unclassified (U) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15938494 (U) Long-range sensors such as the US AN/TPY-2 high-resolution radar and the Dutch sea-based Air Defense and Command Frigate (ADCF), continue to track the missile to help command system calculate options for destroying them. (U) Information is constantly shared among the sensors and weapons systems
  13. 13. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Proposed NATO missile shield cont. unclassified unclassified (U) http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15938494 (U) Command system has the option of shooting down the hostile missiles while in the upper or lower layers of the atmosphere. As tracking continues, greater accuracy is achieved. Lower-layer shooter systems include the German or Dutch Patriot battery systems connected to the Nato network.
  14. 14. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Key Personnel (U) http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/president-obama (U) President of the United States Barrack Obama (U) http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/who_is_who_56703.htm (U) NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen unclassified unclassified unclassified unclassified
  15. 15. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Key Personnel cont. (U) http://politicalkudzu.com/2008/03/02/dimtry-medvedev-is-the-new-russian-president/ (U) http://02varvara.wordpress.com/category/sergei-lavrov/ (U) Russian President Dmitry Medvedev (U) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov unclassified unclassifiedunclassified unclassified
  16. 16. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) The Group of 8 Counsel (U) Provides an important occasion for busy leaders to discuss major, complex international issues, and to the develop the personal relations that help them respond in effective collective fashion to sudden crises or shocks. The summit also gives direction to the international community by setting priorities, defining new issues and providing guidance to established international organizations
  17. 17. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U)Members of the Group of 8 Counsel (U) Member Nations  United States  Germany  Japan  Britain  Canada  France  Italy  Russia
  18. 18. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Sources (U) All information is drawn from Unclassified, open source research. Regional newspaper referenced is The Moscow News, RT.com, RIA Novosti; Western newspapers and periodicals referenced are WBEZ Chicago public media, BBC News and The New York times  NATO: Going ahead with missile shield despite Russian concerns, threats By Associated Press, Published: February 4, 2012 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nato-going-ahead-with-missile-shield-despite- russian-concerns-threats/2012/02/04/gIQAIjJIpQ_story.html  A Leaner NATO Needs a Tighter Focus Hans Binnendijk Published: February 3, 2012 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/04/opinion/a-leaner-nato-needs-a- tighter-focus.html  Russia, NATO May Hold Missile Defense Drills in March MOSCOW February 2 (RIA Novosti) http://en.rian.ru/world/20120202/171092506.html
  19. 19. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Sources cont.  Russia, NATO May Hold Missile Defense Drills in March MOSCOW February 2 (RIA Novosti) http://en.rian.ru/world/20120202/171092506.html  White House officials in Chicago to talk NATO, G-8 agenda Alex Keefe | Jan. 31, 2012 http://www.wbez.org/story/white-house-officials-chicago-talk- nato-g-8-agenda- 95990  U.S. says will give no missile defense assurances to Russia MOSCOW, January 13 (RIA Novosti) http://en.rian.ru/russia/20120113/170733294.html  Russia may drop NATO summit over missile defense Published: 30 November, 2011, 18:05 http://rt.com/politics/nato-summit-chicago-russia-577/
  20. 20. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Sources cont.  Russia launches new missile defense to cover Atlantic Published: 29 November, 2011, 14:10 Edited: 29 November, 2011, 18:40 http://rt.com/politics/opens-kaliningrad-radar-station-459/  Missile defense sparks diplomatic offensive Published: 28 November, 2011, 16:36 http://rt.com/politics/nato-afghanistan-missile-defense-365/  Russia activates missile early warning radar system BBC News Europe 29 November 2011 Last updated at 09:22 ET http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15938494
  21. 21. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED (U) Sources cont.  G-8 Information Center http://www.g8.utoronto.ca/what_is_g8.html  Western Russia http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.merriam- webster.com/maps/images/maps/russia- west_map.gif&imgrefurl=http://www.merriam- webster.com/maps/russia1.html&h=435&w=370&sz=79&tbnid=zG_xZJI4iJwmr M:&tbnh=86&tbnw=73&zoom=1&docid=3zXpTOsa70szKM&hl=en&sa=X&ei= UP8zT47DKpPMsQKD5rzwAQ&sqi=2&ved=0CDQQ9QEwAg&dur=3052 Map of Southwest Asia https://www.google.com/search?q=map+of+southwest+asia&hl=en&prmd=imvns &tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=y_0zT9TmN6uksQLour3wAQ&sqi= 2&ved=0CCsQsAQ&biw=1372&bih=702

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