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Have	
  you	
  no*ced	
  this	
  ad	
  
for	
  …	
  
…or	
  did	
  you	
  arrive	
  at	
  this	
  search-­‐page	
  without	
  having	
  
ever	
  seen	
  the	
  ad?	
  
A	
  few	
  clicks	
  later	
  you	
  have	
  arrived	
  here	
  to	
  choose	
  
what	
  to	
  buy,	
  where	
  and	
  at	
  what	
  price.	
  
But	
  the	
  day	
  a@er	
  you	
  
are	
  surprised	
  by	
  a	
  
similar	
  newspaper-­‐ad	
  
of	
  another	
  brand.	
  

How	
  confusing.	
  
But	
  confused	
  consumers	
  …	
  compare.	
  	
  
(Aren’t	
  we	
  all	
  confused	
  consumers?)	
  
Brands	
  themselves	
  confuse	
  consumers.	
  
      Deliberately.	
  




http://bit.ly/ZBFHFK
That’s	
  how	
  they	
  do	
  it.	
  
Eventually	
  you	
  ask	
  some	
  car	
  lover-­‐friends	
  which	
  used	
  
car	
  you	
  should	
  buy.	
  Aston	
  Mar*n	
  or	
  BMW.	
  
That’s	
  the	
  social	
  consumer:	
  he/she	
  buys	
  a	
  lot	
  -­‐	
  
not	
  only	
  cars	
  -­‐	
  based	
  on	
  recommenda*ons.	
  
What’s	
  the	
  problem	
  with	
  adver*sing?	
  

“Why	
  now?	
  You	
  interrupt	
  my	
  ac4vi4es”	
  	
  

“Not	
  for	
  me.	
  I	
  just	
  bought	
  my	
  stuff”	
  

“Too	
  many	
  ads.	
  I	
  avoid	
  them”	
  

“So	
  stupid”.	
  

“Nice	
  ad,	
  but	
  so	
  what?	
  Not	
  relevant	
  for	
  me.”	
  

“Haven’t	
  even	
  seen	
  it.”	
  

“I	
  don’t	
  care.	
  Will	
  search	
  when	
  I	
  need	
  something.”	
  

“Don’t	
  trust	
  it.	
  Nothing	
  but	
  lies.	
  I’ll	
  ask	
  my	
  friends	
  or	
  colleagues”	
  
Ad agency



                            Ads



                          Media



                                  you   you




                    you
Brand
“We	
  are	
  not	
  the	
  customers	
  of	
  Facebook,	
  we	
  are	
  the	
  
product.	
  Facebook	
  is	
  selling	
  us	
  to	
  adver*sers.”	
  

                                                                        Douglas Rushkoff




                  Your data
Reviews	
  do	
  the	
  job!	
  
Yelp	
  (2008-­‐2012)	
  s*ll	
  loses	
  money.	
  
About	
  70%	
  of	
  Yelp’s	
  revenue	
  is	
  from	
  ads	
  (!!!)	
  by	
  
local	
  businesses	
  listed	
  on	
  its	
  site.	
  	
  
Prof.	
  Dr.	
  Gerard	
  Tellis	
  




1980-­‐1990:Adver,sing	
  +10%	
  =	
  +2.2%	
  marketshare	
  
2008:Adver,sing	
  +20%	
  =	
  +2.2%	
  marketshare	
  

    “	
  ….	
  the	
  authors	
  conduct	
  a	
  meta-­‐analysis	
  of	
  751	
  short-­‐term	
  and	
  402	
  long-­‐term	
  
    direct-­‐to-­‐consumer	
  brand	
  adver4sing	
  elas4ci4es	
  es4mated	
  in	
  56	
  
    studies	
  published	
  between	
  1960	
  and	
  2008.	
  the	
  study	
  finds	
  several	
  new	
  
    empirical	
  generaliza4ons	
  about	
  adver4sing	
  elas4city.	
  the	
  most	
  important	
  
    are	
  as	
  follows:	
  the	
  average	
  short-­‐term	
  adver4sing	
  elas4city	
  is	
  .12,	
  which	
  
    is	
  substan4ally	
  lower	
  than	
  the	
  prior	
  meta-­‐analy4c	
  mean	
  of	
  .22;	
  there	
  has	
  been	
  a	
  
    decline	
  in	
  the	
  adver4sing	
  elas4city	
  over	
  4me.”	
  

    Gerard	
  Tellis,	
  PhD	
  Michigan,	
  is	
  Professor	
  of	
  Marke,ng,	
  Management,	
  and	
  Organiza,on,	
  Neely	
  Chair	
  of	
  American	
  Enterprise,	
  and	
  Director	
  of	
  
    the	
  Center	
  for	
  Global	
  Innova,on,	
  at	
  the	
  USC	
  Marshall	
  School	
  of	
  Business.	
  He	
  is	
  Dis,nguished	
  Visitor	
  of	
  Marke,ng	
  Research,	
  Erasmus	
  
    University,	
  RoUerdam	
  and	
  has	
  been	
  Visi,ng	
  Chair	
  of	
  Marke,ng,	
  Strategy,	
  and	
  Innova,on	
  at	
  the	
  Judge	
  Business	
  School,	
  Cambridge	
  University,	
  
    UK.	
  Tellis	
  specializes	
  in	
  the	
  areas	
  of	
  innova,on,	
  adver,sing,	
  global	
  strategy,	
  market	
  entry,	
  new	
  product	
  growth,	
  promo,on,	
  and	
  pricing.	
  
One	
  of	
  many	
  brands’	
  issues:	
  “Adver*sing	
  is	
  
too	
  expensive.	
  Grows	
  faster	
  than	
  the	
  economy!”	
  	
  




  YOY-growth   +7%    +3,8%   +3,8%   +4,6%   +5,2%
Recommenders	
  directly	
  influence	
  20-­‐50%	
  of	
  all	
  
purchase	
  decisions.	
  
Offline!	
  Thé	
  method	
  of	
  recommenda*on.	
  
The	
  mo*ves	
  of	
  recommenders?	
  
Why	
  do	
  you	
  recommend?	
  And	
  why	
  not?	
  
The	
  difference	
  between	
  a	
  “recommended”	
  beer	
  
and	
  a	
  marke*ng	
  beer.	
  	
  
                                              http://www.ratebeer.com/
The	
  difference	
  in	
  family	
  fortune	
  between	
  a	
  
“recommended”	
  beer	
  and	
  a	
  marke*ng	
  beer.	
  	
  



                  $11 billion




                   € 270 million
“Friends	
  &	
  family”	
  -­‐	
  recommenda*ons	
  lead.	
  
“Friends	
  &	
  family”	
  are	
  the	
  trusted	
  source.	
  
Adver*sing	
  …?	
  
Some	
  buy	
  a	
  lot	
  online	
  and	
  tell	
  it	
  to	
  a	
  lot	
  of	
  
people	
  online	
  too.	
  
Who’s	
  influencing?	
  	
  
Is	
  all	
  that	
  buzzing	
  trustworthy?	
  




                                       “…	
  while	
  consumer	
  electronics	
  buyers	
  pay	
  more	
  
                                       aZen4on	
  to	
  other	
  consumers’	
  reviews	
  than	
  to	
  
                                       editorial	
  reviews	
  –	
  by	
  a	
  margin	
  of	
  more	
  than	
  three	
  
                                       to	
  one	
  (77	
  percent	
  vs.	
  23	
  percent)	
  –	
  a	
  majority	
  are	
  
                                       concerned	
  about	
  the	
  authen4city	
  of	
  consumer	
  
                                       reviews	
  (80	
  percent),	
  leading	
  them	
  to	
  conduct	
  
                                       considerable	
  analysis	
  before	
  making	
  their	
  decision.”	
  
POE:	
  Paid.	
  Owned.	
  Earned.	
  
Recommenda*on	
  measurement	
  started	
  with	
  
Reichheld	
  in	
  2003	
  
Not	
  only	
  we	
  ask	
  clients	
  whether	
  they	
  will/will	
  
not	
  recommend	
  a	
  brand…	
  




                                 8	
  
                                  8
                                   8	
  




                                            NPS	
  
We	
  ask	
  non-­‐clients	
  too.	
  They	
  too	
  judge,	
  talk	
  
and	
  influence.	
  That’s	
  why	
  we	
  ask	
  them.	
  



                                                                 NPS	
  
The	
  actual	
  Holaba	
  B2B-­‐dashboard	
  in	
  China	
  




Net Promoter Score= % promoters (9-10) minus % detractors (0-6)among clients.
Holaba Score = % promoters (9-10) minus % detractors (0-6) among recommenders
From	
  RFM	
  to	
  RRFM	
  to	
  
                                                                                                decide	
  about	
  what	
  to	
  
Recency,	
  frequency,	
  monetary	
  value	
  (RFM)	
  of	
  
                                                                                                invest	
  where.	
  
clients	
  are	
  decisive	
  for	
  investment	
  in	
                RFM	
  -­‐	
  axis	
  
marke,ng	
  communica,on.	
  Therefore	
  lots	
  of	
  
money	
  spent	
  (wasted)	
  in	
  this	
  group	
  of	
  heavy	
  
and	
  recent	
  buyers	
  	
  




Light	
  and	
  non	
  frequent	
  buyers	
  are	
  o_en	
  
“neglected”	
  	
  
The	
  recommenda*on	
  
                                                                                                   power	
  of	
  clients	
  
                                                                                                   becomes	
  the	
  decisive	
  
                                                                                                   tool	
  to	
  decide	
  on	
  
                                                                                                   marcom-­‐investments	
  
                                    RFM	
  -­‐	
  axis	
  




                                                                                                           Does	
  not	
  mean	
  they	
  all	
  give	
  posi4ve	
  
+RFM	
  &	
  -­‐	
  REC	
                                      +RFM	
  &	
  +	
  REC	
                                              recommenda4ons	
  



                                                             Recommenda7on	
  axis	
  
                                                                                                                    Frequency	
  and	
  intensity	
  of	
  
                                                                                                                           recommenda*on.	
  




                                                                 -­‐	
  RFM	
  &	
  +	
  REC	
  
-­‐	
  RFM	
  &	
  -­‐	
  REC	
  
To	
  influence	
  these	
  influencers,	
  iden*fy	
  them.	
  
Con*nuously.	
  	
  Everywhere.	
  
Jan	
  Van	
  den	
  Bergh	
  杨⽂文博	
  
jevedebe@gmail.com	
  
hFps://www.facebook.com/jevedebe	
  
hFps://www.facebook.com/holaba	
  
TwiFer:@holaba	
  	
  
Skype:jevedebechina	
  

+86	
  136	
  2179	
  9450	
  (CH)	
  
+32	
  	
  475	
  427	
  882	
  (BEL)	
  
A	
  :	
  上海市新闸路831号丽都新贵13层F室,	
  200041	
  
13-F,	
  No	
  831	
  Xin	
  Zha	
  Road,	
  Shanghai,	
  200041	
  

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R'dam rsm - 20130314

  • 1.
  • 2. Have  you  no*ced  this  ad   for  …  
  • 3. …or  did  you  arrive  at  this  search-­‐page  without  having   ever  seen  the  ad?  
  • 4. A  few  clicks  later  you  have  arrived  here  to  choose   what  to  buy,  where  and  at  what  price.  
  • 5. But  the  day  a@er  you   are  surprised  by  a   similar  newspaper-­‐ad   of  another  brand.   How  confusing.  
  • 6. But  confused  consumers  …  compare.     (Aren’t  we  all  confused  consumers?)  
  • 7. Brands  themselves  confuse  consumers.   Deliberately.   http://bit.ly/ZBFHFK
  • 8. That’s  how  they  do  it.  
  • 9. Eventually  you  ask  some  car  lover-­‐friends  which  used   car  you  should  buy.  Aston  Mar*n  or  BMW.  
  • 10. That’s  the  social  consumer:  he/she  buys  a  lot  -­‐   not  only  cars  -­‐  based  on  recommenda*ons.  
  • 11. What’s  the  problem  with  adver*sing?   “Why  now?  You  interrupt  my  ac4vi4es”     “Not  for  me.  I  just  bought  my  stuff”   “Too  many  ads.  I  avoid  them”   “So  stupid”.   “Nice  ad,  but  so  what?  Not  relevant  for  me.”   “Haven’t  even  seen  it.”   “I  don’t  care.  Will  search  when  I  need  something.”   “Don’t  trust  it.  Nothing  but  lies.  I’ll  ask  my  friends  or  colleagues”  
  • 12. Ad agency Ads Media you you you Brand
  • 13. “We  are  not  the  customers  of  Facebook,  we  are  the   product.  Facebook  is  selling  us  to  adver*sers.”   Douglas Rushkoff Your data
  • 14.
  • 15. Reviews  do  the  job!  
  • 16. Yelp  (2008-­‐2012)  s*ll  loses  money.  
  • 17. About  70%  of  Yelp’s  revenue  is  from  ads  (!!!)  by   local  businesses  listed  on  its  site.    
  • 18. Prof.  Dr.  Gerard  Tellis   1980-­‐1990:Adver,sing  +10%  =  +2.2%  marketshare   2008:Adver,sing  +20%  =  +2.2%  marketshare   “  ….  the  authors  conduct  a  meta-­‐analysis  of  751  short-­‐term  and  402  long-­‐term   direct-­‐to-­‐consumer  brand  adver4sing  elas4ci4es  es4mated  in  56   studies  published  between  1960  and  2008.  the  study  finds  several  new   empirical  generaliza4ons  about  adver4sing  elas4city.  the  most  important   are  as  follows:  the  average  short-­‐term  adver4sing  elas4city  is  .12,  which   is  substan4ally  lower  than  the  prior  meta-­‐analy4c  mean  of  .22;  there  has  been  a   decline  in  the  adver4sing  elas4city  over  4me.”   Gerard  Tellis,  PhD  Michigan,  is  Professor  of  Marke,ng,  Management,  and  Organiza,on,  Neely  Chair  of  American  Enterprise,  and  Director  of   the  Center  for  Global  Innova,on,  at  the  USC  Marshall  School  of  Business.  He  is  Dis,nguished  Visitor  of  Marke,ng  Research,  Erasmus   University,  RoUerdam  and  has  been  Visi,ng  Chair  of  Marke,ng,  Strategy,  and  Innova,on  at  the  Judge  Business  School,  Cambridge  University,   UK.  Tellis  specializes  in  the  areas  of  innova,on,  adver,sing,  global  strategy,  market  entry,  new  product  growth,  promo,on,  and  pricing.  
  • 19. One  of  many  brands’  issues:  “Adver*sing  is   too  expensive.  Grows  faster  than  the  economy!”     YOY-growth +7% +3,8% +3,8% +4,6% +5,2%
  • 20. Recommenders  directly  influence  20-­‐50%  of  all   purchase  decisions.  
  • 21. Offline!  Thé  method  of  recommenda*on.  
  • 22. The  mo*ves  of  recommenders?  
  • 23. Why  do  you  recommend?  And  why  not?  
  • 24. The  difference  between  a  “recommended”  beer   and  a  marke*ng  beer.     http://www.ratebeer.com/
  • 25. The  difference  in  family  fortune  between  a   “recommended”  beer  and  a  marke*ng  beer.     $11 billion € 270 million
  • 26. “Friends  &  family”  -­‐  recommenda*ons  lead.  
  • 27. “Friends  &  family”  are  the  trusted  source.   Adver*sing  …?  
  • 28. Some  buy  a  lot  online  and  tell  it  to  a  lot  of   people  online  too.  
  • 29. Who’s  influencing?     Is  all  that  buzzing  trustworthy?   “…  while  consumer  electronics  buyers  pay  more   aZen4on  to  other  consumers’  reviews  than  to   editorial  reviews  –  by  a  margin  of  more  than  three   to  one  (77  percent  vs.  23  percent)  –  a  majority  are   concerned  about  the  authen4city  of  consumer   reviews  (80  percent),  leading  them  to  conduct   considerable  analysis  before  making  their  decision.”  
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32. POE:  Paid.  Owned.  Earned.  
  • 33. Recommenda*on  measurement  started  with   Reichheld  in  2003  
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. Not  only  we  ask  clients  whether  they  will/will   not  recommend  a  brand…   8   8 8   NPS  
  • 38. We  ask  non-­‐clients  too.  They  too  judge,  talk   and  influence.  That’s  why  we  ask  them.   NPS  
  • 39. The  actual  Holaba  B2B-­‐dashboard  in  China   Net Promoter Score= % promoters (9-10) minus % detractors (0-6)among clients. Holaba Score = % promoters (9-10) minus % detractors (0-6) among recommenders
  • 40. From  RFM  to  RRFM  to   decide  about  what  to   Recency,  frequency,  monetary  value  (RFM)  of   invest  where.   clients  are  decisive  for  investment  in   RFM  -­‐  axis   marke,ng  communica,on.  Therefore  lots  of   money  spent  (wasted)  in  this  group  of  heavy   and  recent  buyers     Light  and  non  frequent  buyers  are  o_en   “neglected”    
  • 41. The  recommenda*on   power  of  clients   becomes  the  decisive   tool  to  decide  on   marcom-­‐investments   RFM  -­‐  axis   Does  not  mean  they  all  give  posi4ve   +RFM  &  -­‐  REC   +RFM  &  +  REC   recommenda4ons   Recommenda7on  axis   Frequency  and  intensity  of   recommenda*on.   -­‐  RFM  &  +  REC   -­‐  RFM  &  -­‐  REC  
  • 42. To  influence  these  influencers,  iden*fy  them.   Con*nuously.    Everywhere.  
  • 43. Jan  Van  den  Bergh  杨⽂文博   jevedebe@gmail.com   hFps://www.facebook.com/jevedebe   hFps://www.facebook.com/holaba   TwiFer:@holaba     Skype:jevedebechina   +86  136  2179  9450  (CH)   +32    475  427  882  (BEL)   A  :  上海市新闸路831号丽都新贵13层F室,  200041   13-F,  No  831  Xin  Zha  Road,  Shanghai,  200041