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Why we have military science and theory of war?
Just because the humanity spent much more time in war then in peace. So the war is quite loyal phenomena escorting the humanity.
What we are waiting from the military science?
Whom future wars will be fought, what they will be about, how they will be fought, what wars will be fought for and why people will participate in it.

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  1. 1. Centre of Excellence - Defence Against Terrorism FFoouurrtthh GGeenneerraattiioonnss ooff MMooddeerrnn WWaarrffaarree ((44GGWW)) COL Engr. JÁNOS TOMOLYA Ph.D. HUN Army UNCLASSIFIED 1/26 Chief of Capabilities
  2. 2. Agenda : 1. Introduction; 2. Different classification of war (epochs, waves, forms); 3. Asymmetric Warfare; 4. Military cultures; 5. Fourth Generation of modern warfare; 2/26
  3. 3. 3/26 The Next War? How can we avoid being like the French knights at the Battle of Agincourt?
  4. 4. 4/26 Future Warfare
  5. 5. 5/26 Or this one?
  6. 6. UNCLASSIFIED 6/26
  7. 7. 7/26 Number of terrorist attacks 2003-2011
  8. 8. 8/26 Military Expenditure UNCLASSIFIED SIPRI: 1531 billions USD in 2009
  9. 9. 9/26
  10. 10. 10/26 1. Different classification of war: Epochs Dr T. Lindsay Moore and Robert J. Bunker : 4 epochs, based on energy sources  human energy  animal-based energy  mechanical energy  post-mechanical energy: UNCLASSIFIED Advanced technology warfare Non-Western warfare
  11. 11. Alvin and Heidi Toffler developed a theory of warfare based on the economic and societal changes of civilization. 11/26 Waves Agricultural war Industrial-based war (late of 17th century) Knowledge-based war (from 1980s) UNCLASSIFIED
  12. 12. 12/26 Forms of warfare Symmetric Dissymmetric Asymmetric /Eric Walters/ After WWII more than 160 armed conflicts; 75% of them were asymmetric UNCLASSIFIED
  13. 13. 13/26 Symmetric In symmetric conflicts, the two opposing adversaries dispose of armed forces that are similar in all aspects such as force structure, doctrine and assets and have comparable tactical, operational and strategic objectives. UNCLASSIFIED
  14. 14. A conflict is dissymmetric when one of the opposing forces is superior by means of force structure, doctrine and assets, but both parties are striving for similar political and military objectives. 14/26 Dissymmetric UNCLASSIFIED
  15. 15. UNCLASSIFIED 15/26
  16. 16. 16/26 2. Asymmetric Warfare (AW) One of the opponents is unable or unwilling to wage the war with comparable force structure, doctrine and assets and has different political and military objectives than his adversary.
  17. 17. 17/26 Asymmetric Warfare (AW)  What is it? David and Goliath warfare Unsophisticated vs. the sophisticated (technologically) Poor countries or entities against rich countries or rich entities Threat can be internal or external (i.e. Israel, Vietnam or Afghanistan) Often state sponsored/supported Attacking opponent via indirect means such as Terrorism Critical infrastructures Avoids combat w/ conventional forces Tends to have a purpose that focuses on a force, but not always the case Misc. unconventional means i.e., poisoning water/food supplies, exploitation of media by staging scenes to sway public opinion.
  18. 18. 18/26 3. Military cultures Clausewitz: „War is an act of force, and there is no logical limit to the application of that force.” The way of application of force depends on the UNCLASSIFIED military culture.
  19. 19. 19/26 Kinds of Military Cultures Material-centric; Movement-centric; Guerilla warfare Forms: terrorism, guerilla warfare, orthodox warfare;  Types: anarchism; equality-based; tradition-based; pluralist; secessionist; divider; reformer; Used methods: coup d’état; exhausting, focus on military, warfare in build-up areas; UNCLASSIFIED Orthodox warfare
  20. 20. Material-centric Strategy of „indirect approach” Characteristics: Daggering wars; Defence; Strategic objective: exhausting of enemy Indirect warfare- not only with military means Main services: air force, navy Preferred by: maritime powers UNCLASSIFIED 20/26 Indirect approach
  21. 21. 21/26 Movement-centric UNCLASSIFIED Strategy of „direct approach” Characteristics: Blitzkrieg; Offence; Strategic objective: destroy the enemy Direct warfare- decisive maneuvers Main services: land force, Preferred by: continental powers
  22. 22. 22/26 Guerilla warfare UNCLASSIFIED Strategy of „indirect approach in irregular form” Supported by people Characteristics: Hit and run actions; Offence; Strategic objective: exhausting of enemy, provoke a collapse internally Media Indirect warfare- not only with military means Main services: land force
  23. 23. 23/26 4. Generations of Warfare COL BOYD Non-linear warfare Focuses on moral-mental-physical portions of enemy & as single entity Focus on the enemy and environment Knowledge of strategic environment Interact w/ environment appropriately UNCLASSIFIED
  24. 24. 24/26 New dimensions UNCLASSIFIED
  25. 25. 25/26 Trinity Clausewitz: „the war is monopoly of the state” UNCLASSIFIED people government army society
  26. 26. 26/26 1GW= Age of Napoleon Massed manpower UNCLASSIFIED
  27. 27. 27/26 2 GW= Age of Firepower UNCLASSIFIED Massed firepower... But still in lines
  28. 28. 28/26 3 GW= Age of Maneuver UNCLASSIFIED
  29. 29. 4 GW= Age of Independent Action Cells Asymmetric warfare in irregular form UNCLASSIFIED 29/26
  30. 30. 30/26 4 GW= Age of Independent Action Cells
  31. 31. 31/26 Role of Technology in 4GW UNCLASSIFIED
  32. 32. The “generations of war” model Peace of Westphalia Precursor activities – going back to Alexander & Sun Tzu (and before) States & non-states wage war Fall of USSR 3 GW state vs. state New commo & transport networks 4 GW States & non-states wage war Nuclear Weapons Proliferate New 2 GW weapons & concepts State-vs-state— only “legal” form of war Nonstate armed groups: partisans, insurgents, anarchists, criminal organizations, etc. 1 GW 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 UNCLASSIFIED 32/26
  33. 33. 4GW can be defined as a method of warfare that uses the following to achieve a moral victory: 33/26 Definition Formless and most deadly kind of war Undermines enemy strengths (this may seem obvious, but most of modern warfare has involved direct attacks on enemy strengths -- find the enemy army and destroy it). Exploits enemy weaknesses. Uses asymmetric operations (weapons and techniques that differ substantially from opponents). UNCLASSIFIED
  34. 34. The rise of 4GW is both a product and a driver of the following: The loss of the nation-state's 34/26 Drivers UNCLASSIFIED monopoly on violence. The rise of cultural, ethnic, and religious conflict. Globalization (via technological integration).
  35. 35. 35/26 Characteristics Violent non-state actor (VNSA) fighting the state. lacks hierarchal authority lack of formal structure patience and flexibility ability to keep a low profile when needed small size VNSA’s forces are decentralized
  36. 36. 36/26 Tactics 4GW is fought on the tactical level via: Rear area operations -- 4GW warriors do not confront a nation-state's military but rather it society. Psychological operations -- terror. Ad-hoc innovation -- use of the enemy's strengths against itself Human shields
  37. 37. 37/26 Tactics of 4GW Ethnic cleansing Attacking C4I networks Exploitation of rules of engagement (ROEs) and International laws of war (ILOW) Exploitation of humanitarian relief organizations i.e. Red Crescent, CAIR, etc… Shift in focus from enemy’s front to his rear; Use the enemy’s strength against him
  38. 38. Many of the methods used in 4GW aren't new and have robust historical precedent. However, there are important differences in how it is applied today. These include: 38/26 Differences Global -- modern technologies and economic integration enable global operations. Pervasive -- the decline of nation-state warfare has forced all open conflict into the 4GW mold. Granularity -- extremely small viable groups and variety of reasons for conflict. Vulerability -- open societies and economies. UNCLASSIFIED
  39. 39. 39/26 Differences II. Technology -- new technologies have dramatically increased the productivity of small groups of 4GW warriors. Media -- global media saturation makes possible an incredible level of manipulation. Networked -- new organizational types made possible by improvements in technology are much better at learning, surviving, and acting. UNCLASSIFIED
  40. 40. 4th Generation Warfare (4GW) Formless and most deadly kind of war 4GW ops are intelligence driven. Requires constant preparation and resourcefulness Distinguishing a combatant from a non-combatant 40/26 (civil) can be extremely difficult Can hit anytime, anywhere, anything and anyone
  41. 41. Victory in 4GW warfare is won in the moral sphere. The aim of 4GW is to destroy the moral bonds that allows the organic whole to exist -- cohesion. This is done by reinforcing the following (according to Boyd): 41/26 Winning a 4GW conflict Menace. Attacks that undermine or threaten basic human survival instincts. Mistrust. Increases divisions between groups (ie. conservatives and liberals in the US). Uncertainty. Undermine economic activity by decreasing confidence in the future. UNCLASSIFIED
  42. 42. 42/26 Center of Gravity Is The People Leverage unconventional capabilities against insurgents. Become cellular like “them”. Defeat a networked threat with a network. Develop small independent action forces (SIAF). Establish disciplined, well trained and highly mobile, counter guerrilla forces. UNCLASSIFIED
  43. 43. Power of Perception & Influence As 43/26 “Ammo” Money is ammunition Food is ammunition Medicine is ammunition Education is ammunition Fuel is ammunition Employment is ammunition Recognition is ammunition Respect is ammunition Information and knowledge is ammunition
  44. 44. 44/26 Summary UNCLASSIFIED
  45. 45. Questions? UNCLASSIFIED 45/26