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energy
[r]evolution
A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK




3
                                     1
                                     THE THREE STEP APPROACH
                                     EFFICIENCY / RENEWABLES / STRUCTURE
© GREENPEACE/WILL ROSE




                                                        a blueprint for a global                smart power                       7     renewable energy
                                                        renewable energy future           3                                             = energy security               12
                                                                                                using and producing
                                                        the energy [r]evolution:                smart energy                      8     renewables: no emissions,
                                                        the global context                4                                             no fuel costs, no problem 13
                                                                                                renewable electricity
                                                        working for the climate           5     generation                       10     quitting coal                   14
                                                        shifting the CO2 trend            6     keeping energy affordable 10            phasing out nuclear power 15
             contents
                   image AN INDIGENOUS NENET FAMILY WITH THEIR YOUNGEST SON, OUTSIDE OF THEIR CHUME (TEPEE). IT IS TRADITION THAT THE YOUNGEST SON INHERITS THE CHUME BUT HE
                   ALSO HAS THE RESPONSIBILITY TO LOOK AFTER THE PARENTS WHEN THEY ARE OLD AND SICK. THE INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR
                   REINDEER DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND AND THEY DO NOT OVER FISH THE LAKES. THE YAMAL PENINSULA IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS
                   TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS.


2
“will we look into the eyes                   a blueprint for a global
of our children and confess                   renewable energy future
that we had the opportunity,
but lacked the courage?                       The Energy [R]evolution Scenario provides a practical blueprint
that we had the technology,                   for the world’s renewable energy future, and was developed in
but lacked the vision?”                       conjunction with specialists from the Institute of Technical
                                              Thermodynamics at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and more
                                              than 30 scientists and engineers from universities, institutes and
                                              the renewable energy industry around the world.
                                              The report demonstrates how the world can get from where we are
                                              now, to where we need to be in terms of phasing out fossil fuels,
                                              cutting CO2 while ensuring energy security. This includes illustrating
                                              how the world’s carbon emissions from the energy and transport
                                              sectors alone can peak by 2015 and be cut by over 80% by 2050.
                                              This phase-out of fossil fuels offers substantial other benefits such
                                              as independence from world market fossil fuel prices as well as the
                                              creation of millions of new green jobs.
                                              The Energy [R]evolution Scenario only uses proven technologies
                                              and is based on five key principles:
                                              1. Equity and fairness
                                              2. Respect natural limits
                                              3. Phase out dirty, unsustainable energy
                                              4. Implement renewable solutions and decentralise energy systems
                                              5. Decouple growth from fossil fuel use




                                                                                                                            E
                                                                                                                          TIM
                                                                                                                        MS
                                                                                                                      REA
                                                                                                                 NS/D




 TO SUCCESSFULLY COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE,
                                                                                                                RGE




 WE URGENTLY NEED A REVOLUTION IN THE WAY
                                                                                                             JUE
                                                                                                            ND




 WE PRODUCE, CONSUME AND DISTRIBUTE ENERGY.
                                                                                                         BER
                                                                                                     L. ©
                                                                                                   ANE
                                                                                                 RP
                                                                                               OLA
                                                                                          ge S
                                                                                         ima




                                                                                                                                3
the energy [r]evolution:
      the global context
      The Energy [R]evolution scenario creates greater equity in the      reduce their CO2 emissions earlier than other developing
      use of resources whilst providing a secure and affordable energy    economies, peaking no later than 2015.
      supply and maintaining steady global economic development.
                                                                          Total global emissions need to return to current levels by 2020.
      The report takes into account rapid economic growth areas
                                                                          For this to be achieved, industrialised economies such as the
      such as China, India, Brazil and Africa.
                                                                          USA, the European Community and Australia have to reduce
      The implementation of efficiency standards is an example of         their greenhouse gas emissions by up to 30% below 1990 levels.
      how this can be achieved. By decreasing the per capita energy
                                                                          Developing countries like China and India need to peak CO2
      use in industrialised countries and slowing down the increase of
                                                                          emissions by 2025 and start reducing emissions towards 2030
      energy demand in developing countries, energy consumption can
                                                                          and beyond while providing a secure and affordable energy
      be ‘shared’ in a more balanced way. However, by 2020 the per
                                                                          supply and, critically, maintaining steady worldwide economic
      capita energy use in the USA, Europe or Australia is still higher
                                                                          development. The Energy [R]evolution provides clear pathways
      than in China or India. Therefore OECD countries have to
                                                                          as to how to achieve those reductions.

      figure 1: CO2 emissions per capita

                Middle East

                      Africa

             Developing Asia

                       India

                       China

        Transition Economies

              Latin America

               OECD Pacific
                                                                                                                                     •
                                                                                                                                     •
                                                                                                                                             2050
                                                                                                                                             2020
       OECD North America

               OECD Europe
                                                                                                                                     •       2007




                               0     1      2       3      4      5   6   7     8     9     10     11    12    13     14    15       t/CO2



      THE LONG-TERM GOAL FOR THE ENERGY
      [R]EVOLUTION IS TO CREATE ENERGY EQUITY
      VIA RENEWABLE ENERGY. CUTTING CO2
                                                                                                                                                    © GREENPEACE/JAMES PEREZ
      EMISSIONS DOES NOT MEAN CUTTING
      ECONOMIC GROWTH.


    image LUZ INTERNATIONAL SOLAR POWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA.


4
working for the climate

  The Energy [R]evolution is also creating a green jobs revolution.         figure 2: global employment
  • By 2015 the global power supply sector under the Energy
    [R]evolution scenario could create up to 12.5 million jobs.                    14
    That is 4.5 million more than if business continues as usual.
                                                                                   12                                        •
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                                 OCEAN ENERGY
                                                                                                                                 SOLAR THERMAL
  • By 2020 over 8 million jobs in the renewables sector would
    be created due a much faster uptake of renewables,
                                                                                   10
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                                 GEOTHERMAL
                                                                                                                                 PV
    four-times more than today.
  • By 2030 the Energy [R]evolution scenario will create about
                                                                                    8

                                                                                    6
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                                 WIND
                                                                                                                                 HYDRO

    12 million jobs, that is 8.5 million in the renewables sector
    alone. Without this fast growth in the renewable sector global
                                                                                    4                                        •
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                                 BIOMASS
                                                                                                                                 NUCLEAR

    power jobs will be a mere 2.4 million. Thus by implementing
    the Energy [R]evolution there will be 3.2 million or over
                                                                                    2

                                                                             million 0
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                             •
                                                                                                                                 GAS & OIL
                                                                                                                                 COAL

                                                                                         2015 2020 2030     2015 2020 2030
    33% more jobs by 2030 in the global power supply sector.
                                                                                         REF                Adv E[R]




                                                                                                                                                 © GREENPEACE/DEAN SEWELL
  BY 2020 TWO THIRDS OF THE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO COMES FROM
  RENEWABLE ENERGY, EVEN THOUGH RENEWABLES ACCOUNT FOR ONLY 38% OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION.
  THIS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ELECTRICITY OUTPUT AND JOBS ILLUSTRATES THAT THE RENEWABLES
  SECTOR HAS GREATER “LABOUR INTENSITY” – OR MORE PEOPLE PER UNIT OF POWER PRODUCED.
  INVESTING IN RENEWABLE POWER SAVES FUEL COSTS WHICH MEANS IT CAN INVEST IN WORKERS.


image IN WAUBRA, CENTRAL VICTORIA, ONE OF AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST WIND TURBINE FARMS IS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION.


                                                                                                                                                              5
shifting the CO2 trend

    Global CO2 emissions under the Energy [R]evolution scenario                     figure 4: global regional breakdown of CO2 emissions
    will peak in 2015 and drop afterwards. Compared with today                      in the advanced energy [r]evolution in 2050
    CO2 emissions will be more than 80% lower by 2050 when the
    energy supply is based almost entirely on renewable energies.                                       4%                    7%
                                                                                        LATIN AMERICA                                OECD NORTH AMERICA
    While global emissions fall regional shares shift. OECD                                                                         6%
                                                                                                                                            OECD EUROPE
    countries reduce their emissions faster which see their share                                                                     2%
                                                                                                               13%                          OECD PACIFIC
    of the global output drop from just over 50% today                                                               AFRICA
                                                                                                             4%                          8%
    to 38% in 2020. This is achieved by implementing renewable                                                     MIDDLE EAST                 TRANSITION
                                                                                                                                               ECONOMIES
    energy and energy efficiency standards.

                                                                                                             13%
                                                                                                                                               OTHER ASIA
    figure 3: global development of CO2 emissions
                                                                                                                                         28%
    by sector under the two scenarios                                                                                                              CHINA
                                                                                                                                   15%
                                                                                                                                                    INDIA
    Mil t/a
    50,000                                                                      9,000
                                                                                8,000
    40,000
                                                                                7,000
                                                                                6,000
    30,000
                                                                                5,000
                                                                                4,000
    20,000
                                                                                3,000

    10,000                                                                      2,000
                                                                                1,000
         0                                                                      0
              REF adv    REF adv    REF adv    REF adv    REF adv    REF adv
                  E[R]       E[R]       E[R]       E[R]       E[R]       E[R]

               2007       2015        2020       2030      2040       2050



              •
              •
                   SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES
                  OTHER SECTORS
                                         •     TRANSPORT

              •   INDUSTRY
                                         •     PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP




    BY 2020, OECD COUNTRIES CUT DOWN CO2
    EMISSIONS BY ABOUT 30% - SHIFTING THE
    TREND NO LATER THAN 2015 IS ESSENTIAL TO
                                                                                                                                                            © ITALIANESTRO/DREAMSTIME
    MEET THIS GOAL. THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
    CONCEPT SHOWS HOW IT CAN BE DONE.




6
smart power                                                                On a global scale the Energy [R]evolution can save about
                                                                           70 Exa-Joule compared to business as usual - this is enough
                                                                           to satisfy Europe’s current entire energy demand.
                                                                           Measures such as:
One of the key ways the world can fight climate change is by               • improved insulation and design of our homes and offices
becoming more energy efficient. Efficiency measures also reduce
energy costs to consumers. If we do nothing global energy                  • implementation of super efficient home and office
consumption is expected to increase by 20% by 2020 and up                    appliances via strict mandatory efficiency standards
to 60% by 2050. However if we implement the Energy                         • replacement of electrical heaters and conventional
[R]evolution scenario, energy efficiency measures allow us to                hot water systems with renewable heat production
decrease energy consumption within the next 10 years in                      (such as solar collectors)
industrialised countries by 20%, while allowing for developing
countries to increase their energy consumption by 20%.                     These offer some of the simplest, easiest, most cost effective
                                                                           ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

figure 5: global development of primary energy consumption under the two scenarios
(‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO)

 800,000




 600,000


                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                                   ‘EFFICIENCY’
                                                                                                                   OCEAN ENERGY

 400,000                                                                                                       •
                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                                   GEOTHERMAL
                                                                                                                   SOLAR

                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                                   BIOMASS
                                                                                                                   WIND

 200,000                                                                                                       •
                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                                   HYDRO
                                                                                                                   NATURAL GAS

                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                               •
                                                                                                                   OIL
                                                                                                                   COAL




                                                                                                                                            © PXLAR8/DREAMSTIME
   PJ/a 0
            REF adv         REF adv          REF adv            REF adv      REF adv        REF adv
                                                                                                               •   NUCLEAR


                E[R]            E[R]             E[R]               E[R]         E[R]           E[R]

              2007             2015            2020              2030          2040            2050


“RIGHT NOW ALL COMPUTER SERVERS WORLDWIDE DEVOUR MORE ELECTRICITY THAN THE ENTIRE
DEMAND FROM FRANCE - AND ENERGY USE IS EXPECTED TO DOUBLE AGAIN IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS.
COMPARED TO BEST PRACTICE SERVER TECHNOLOGIES, ABOUT HALF OF THIS ENERGY GOES TO WASTE –
ENOUGH TO POWER AUSTRALIA. A STRICT EFFICIENCY STANDARD FOR SERVERS COULD TAKE 48 COAL
POWER PLANTS OFF THE GRID – SAVING OVER 140 MILLION TONNES OF CO2.”




                                                                                                                                                      7
using and producing
    smart energy
    Business as usual in the way we consume and produce energy               The Energy [R]evolution uses a three step approach:
    is simply not an option any more. Besides catastrophic climate
                                                                             Step 1: Electrical efficiency
    change due to rising CO2 emissions, our resources are limited.
    Fossil fuel prices are increasing and consumers around the               • Exploit all technical potential for electrical efficiency
    world are confronted with unaffordable energy bills. In order              via technical standards
    to achieve a peak in emissions by 2015 and bring emissions
                                                                             Step 2: Structural changes
    down afterwards, we need to implement proven technologies
    in renewable energy and in efficiency now.                               • Change the way we produce energy in large centralised power
                                                                               stations towards a decentralised energy system using large-scale
                                                                               renewable resources which use locally available energy sources
                                                                               such as wind, sun or geothermal
                                                                             • Cogeneration – end the huge amounts of waste energy
                                                                               via cooling towers
                                                                             Step 3: Energy efficient transport
                                                                             • Build up efficient public transport systems
                                                                             • Implement efficient cars, trucks, etc.




                                                                                                                                                               E
                                                                                                                                                             OR .
                                                                                                                                                          SH    K
                                                                                                                                                      O FF MAR GP
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                                                                                                                                                 F OR DEN ENIT
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                                                                                                                                             OR BIN ROCK
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                                                                                                                                                                 © OSCAR1319/DREAMSTIME
    SCENARIO PRINCIPLES IN A NUTSHELL:
    • SMART CONSUMPTION, GENERATION AND DISTRIBUTION




                                                                                                                                                      3
    • ENERGY PRODUCTION MOVES CLOSER TO THE CONSUMER
    • MAXIMUM USE OF LOCALLY AVAILABLE, ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY FUELS



    image THE TECHNOLOGY FOR SOLAR PANELS WAS ORIGINAL INSPIRED BY NATURE.


8
1
    figure 6: a decentralised energy future
    THE CITY CENTRES OF TOMORROW’S NETWORKED WORLD WILL PRODUCE POWER AND HEAT AS WELL AS CONSUME IT. THE ROOFS AND FAÇADES OF
    PUBLIC BUILDINGS ARE IDEAL FOR HARVESTING SOLAR ENERGY. ‘LOW ENERGY’ WILL BECOME THE STANDARD FOR ALL BUILDINGS. GOVERNMENTS
    COMMITTED TO TIGHT CLIMATE-PROTECTION TARGETS WILL HAVE TO IMPOSE STRICT CONDITIONS AND OFFER INCENTIVES FOR RENOVATING THESE
    BUILDINGS. THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE JOBS.




    city




           1. PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR FAÇADES WILL BE A DECORATIVE ELEMENT    3. SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTORS PRODUCE HOT WATER FOR BOTH
              ON OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS. PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS        THEIR OWN AND NEIGHBOURING BUILDINGS.
              WILL BECOME MORE COMPETITIVE AND IMPROVED DESIGN WILL
              ENABLE ARCHITECTS TO USE THEM MORE WIDELY.                  4. EFFICIENT THERMAL POWER (CHP) STATIONS WILL COME IN A
                                                                             VARIETY OF SIZES - FITTING THE CELLAR OF A DETACHED HOUSE OR
           2. RENOVATION CAN CUT ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF OLD BUILDINGS BY      SUPPLYING WHOLE BUILDING COMPLEXES OR APARTMENT BLOCKS
              AS MUCH AS 80% - WITH IMPROVED HEAT INSULATION, INSULATED      WITH POWER AND WARMTH WITHOUT LOSSES IN TRANSMISSION.
              WINDOWS AND MODERN VENTILATION SYSTEMS.
                                                                          5. CLEAN ELECTRICITY FOR THE CITIES WILL ALSO COME FROM
                                                                             FARTHER AFIELD. OFFSHORE WIND PARKS AND SOLAR POWER
                                                                             STATIONS IN DESERTS HAVE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL.




    suburbs




3          1. PHOTOVOLTAIC

           2. MINI-COGENERATION POWER PLANT
              = COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP)

           3. SOLAR COLLECTORS (HEATING)
                                                                          4. LOW-ENERGY BUILDINGS

                                                                          5. GEOTHERMAL HEAT AND POWER PLANT (CHP)




                                                                                                                                            9
renewable electricity                                                                   keeping energy affordable
generation
The Energy [R]evolution scenario demonstrates how by 2020                               If we carry on, business as usual, electricity supply costs will nearly
an impressive 38% of our electricity needs can be met by                                double by 2020. Unchecked growth in energy demand, increases
renewable energy. Established technologies such as wind and                             in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total
solar take the early lead, but rapidly emerging technologies such                       electricity supply costs rising from today’s $1,450 billion per year
as concentrating solar thermal, geothermal and ocean energy,                            to more than $2,800 billion in 2020, and 5,300 billion by 2050.
all contribute to our 2020 energy mix.




figure 7: global electricity generation today
and in 2020 under the energy [r]evolution scenario


                     2020


                                                                 •
                                                                 •
                                                                      COAL
                                                                      LIGNITE


            18%
                                    31%
                                                   28%
                                                                 •
                                                                 •
                                                                      GAS
                                                                      OIL & DIESEL
 38%

         15%         today
                                                                 •
                                                                 •
                                                                      NUCLEAR
                                                                      RENEWABLES

                                                     3%
               7%                  9%

                      20%


          6%                            22%
                3%




                                                                                        BY MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS AND REDUCING
                                                                                        CARBON EMISSIONS, THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
                                                                                        SCENARIO STABILISES ENERGY COSTS FOR CONSUMERS.
                                                                                        BETWEEN 2015 AND 2020, MOST RENEWABLE ENERGY
                                                                                        SOURCES BECOME CHEAPER THAN COAL.
                                                                                   D.
                                                                                LAN E
                                                                            ZEAMSTIM
                                                                     , NEW/DREA
                                                               PL ANT GH
                                                                     GOU
                                                            ER © JOE
                                                     L   POW
                                                  MA
                                            HER
                                      EOT
                                  ge G
10                          ima
The Energy [R]evolution Scenario not only complies with global CO2               figure 8: global development of total electricity
reduction targets it also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve            supply costs & development of specific electricity
the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and               generation costs under two scenarios
shifting energy supply to renewables leads to long term costs for
electricity generation that are one third lower than if we continue in                6,000                                                         15
our current trends. It becomes clear that pursuing stringent
environmental targets in the energy sector also pays off financially.                 5,000

                                                                                      4,000                                                         10




                                                                                                                                                         $¢/kWh
                                                                                      3,000

                                                                                      2,000                                                         5

                                                                                      1,000

                                                                                     B $/a 0                                                        0
                                                                                               2007    2015     2020      2030      2040     2050

                                                                                               •
                                                                                               •
                                                                                                   ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION - ‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES
                                                                                                   REFERENCE SCENARIO

                                                                                               •   ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO




                                                                                                                                                           © PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GREENPEACE
WITH AN ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION, EVEN BY 2020, WIND FARMS WILL REPLACE THE ELECTRICITY GENERATED
BY 450 MEDIUM-SIZED COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS.
EMERGING ECONOMIES SUCH AS CHINA AND INDIA ARE ALREADY AMONG THE WORLD’S LEADING NATIONS
IN WIND TECHNOLOGY, TOGETHER WITH THE USA, GERMANY, SPAIN AND DENMARK. IN 2009, THE WIND
INDUSTRY EMPLOYED OVER 400,000 PEOPLE.

image TEST WINDMILL N90 2500, BUILT BY THE GERMAN COMPANY NORDEX, IN THE HARBOUR OF ROSTOCK. THIS WINDMILL PRODUCES 2,5 MEGA WATT
AND IS TESTED UNDER OFFSHORE CONDITIONS. TWO TECHNICIANS WORKING INSIDE THE TURBINE.


                                                                                                                                                         11
renewable energy =
     energy security
     Nature offers a variety of freely available options for producing   figure 9: energy resources of the world
     energy. Their exploitation is mainly a question of how to convert
     sunlight, wind, biomass or water into electricity, heat or power
     as efficiently, sustainably and cost-effectively as possible.
                                                                                                     SOLAR ENERGY
                                                                                                     2850 TIMES
     On average, the energy in the sunshine that reaches the earth
     is about one kilowatt per square metre worldwide. According
     to the Research Association for Solar Power, power is gushing
     from renewable energy sources at a rate of 2,850 times more
     energy than is needed in the world.                                                             WIND ENERGY
                                                                                                     200 TIMES
     In one day alone the sunlight which reaches the earth produces
     enough energy to satisfy the world’s current power requirements
                                                                                                                                    BIOMASS
     for eight years. Even though only a percentage of that potential                                                               20 TIMES
     is technically accessible, this is still enough to provide around
     six times more power than the world currently requires.
                                                                                                                         GEOTHERMAL
                                                                                                 HYDROPOWER              ENERGY 5 TIMES
                                                                                 ENERGY     1 TIMES

                                                                                 RESOURCES                         WAVE-TIDAL
                                                                                                                   ENERGY 2 TIMES
     table 2: technical potential by renewable energy                            OF THE WORLD
     technology for 2050 vs world primary energy                                        POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE
                                                                                        ENERGY SOURCES ALL RENEWABLE
     demand 2007 WORLD ENERGY DEMAND 2007: 502.9 EJ/A      a
                                                                                        ENERGY SOURCES PROVIDE 3078
                                                                                        TIMES THE CURRENT GLOBAL
                                                                                        ENERGY NEEDS
     TECHNICAL POTENTIAL VERSUS WORLD POWER DEMAND IN 2007
     Solar CSP                                         3.4     times     source WBGU
     Solar PV                                         16.0     times
     Hydro power                                       0.1     times
     Wind on-shore                                     0.8     times
     Wind off-shore                                    0.1     times




                                                                                                                                               © I. MCDONNELL/ISTOCK
     Ocean energy                                      0.7     times
     Geothermal electric                               0.1     times
     TECHNICAL POTENTIAL VERSUS WORLD HEATING DEMAND IN 2007
     Geothermal direct uses                             9.9 times
     Solar water heating                                0.2 times
     TECHNICAL POTENTIAL VERSUS PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND - TOTAL               THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO USES
     TOTAL                                              32 times            ONLY 1.3% OF THE KNOWN AVAILABLE
     source DLR, WUPPERTAL INSTITUTE, ECOFYS; ROLE AND POTENTIAL            RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES OF DEVELOPED
     OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR GLOBAL ENERGY
     SUPPLY; COMMISSIONED BY THE GERMAN FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT                 ECONOMIES BY 2020 ALONE WILL PROVIDE 21%
     AGENCY FKZ 3707 41 108, MARCH 2009; POTENTIAL VERSUS ENERGY
     DEMAND: S. TESKE a IEA 2009
                                                                            OF GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS (BY 2020).



 image BREAKING WAVE, MEXICO.


12
renewables: no emissions,
no fuel costs, no problem
Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, the total financial        The average annual investment in the power sector under the
savings until 2030 outlined in the Energy [R]evolution reach a total   Energy [R]evolution Scenario between 2007 and 2030 would be
of $6.5 trillion, or $282 billion per year A comparison between        approximately $782 billion. This is equal to the current amount
the extra fuel costs associated with business as usual and the extra   of subsidies paid for fossil fuels globally in under three years.
investment costs of the Energy [R]evolution shows that the average
                                                                       These renewable energy sources will produce electricity without any
annual additional fuel costs of the former are higher than the
                                                                       further fuel costs beyond 2030, while the costs for coal and gas
additional investment requirements of the Energy [R]evolution.
                                                                       will continue to be a burden on national economies. The Energy
                                                                       [R]evolution pays for the environment, the climate and the economy.



figure 10: investment shares - reference versus advanced energy [r]evolution




                                                                                                                                                image BIOGAS FACILITY “SCHRADEN BIOGAS” IN GROEDEN NEAR DRESDEN, GERMANY.
REF 2007 - 2030                                                        adv E[R] 2007 - 2030
                               8%               NUCLEAR POWER                                         17%         FOSSIL



        43%                                     RENEWABLES

                                                                                                              13% CHP
       total 11.2 trillion $                                                  total 17.9 trillion $
                                          39%   FOSSIL



                                    10%         CHP                                                     70%       RENEWABLES




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            © LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP
     A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EXTRA FUEL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
     BUSINESS AS USUAL AND THE EXTRA INVESTMENT COSTS OF THE ENERGY
     [R]EVOLUTION SHOWS THAT THE AVERAGE ANNUAL ADDITIONAL FUEL
     COSTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS
     OF THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO.




                                                                                                                                           13
quitting coal
                                                                                          The single biggest contributor to global greenhouse emissions
                                                                                          is burning coal. The Energy [R]evolution shows that by greatly
                                                                                          increasing the amount of renewable energy in our system, using gas
                                                                                          as a transitional fuel and introducing assertive energy efficiency
                                                                                          measures, we can start removing coal fired power from the grid,
                                                                                          shutting them down at the end of their working life. From 2020
                                                                                          onwards, the coal electricity share starts to decrease. By 2020,
                                                                                          30% of the currently operating coal power plants in industrialised
                                                                                          countries are retired and replaced by a mix of renewable,
                                                                                          co-generation and energy efficiency.




                                                                                             AUSTRALIA CAN TAKE COAL FIRED POWER
                                                                                             STATIONS OFF THE GRID AT THE RATE OF MORE
                                                                                             THAN ONE A YEAR. COAL CAN BE PHASED OUT
                                                                            © GP/MURPHY




                                                                                             ENTIRELY IN AUSTRALIA BY 2030.



                                                                                          image UPPER HUNTER VALLEY COAL MINES, NSW, AUSTRALIA.


 image [large] SIGN ON A RUSTY DOOR AT CHERNOBYL ATOMIC STATION, UKRAINE.


14
phasing out nuclear power
Nuclear energy is a relatively minor industry with major problems.              The dangers of nuclear power
It covers just one sixteenth of the world’s primary energy
                                                                                Although the generation of electricity through nuclear power
consumption, a share set to decline over the coming decades.
                                                                                produces much less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels,
The average age of operating commercial nuclear reactors is 23
                                                                                there are multiple threats to people and the environment
years, so more power stations are being shut down than started up.
                                                                                from its operations. The main risks are:
In 2008, world nuclear production fell by 2% compared to 2006,
and the number of operating reactors as of January 2010 was 436,                • Nuclear proliferation
eight less than at the historical peak of 2002.                                 • Nuclear waste
In terms of new power stations, the amount of nuclear capacity added            • Safety risks
annually between 2000 and 2009 was on average 2,500 MWe. This
was six times less than wind power (14,500 MWe per annum between
2000 and 2009). In 2009, 37,466 MW of new wind power capacity
was added globally to the grid, compared to only 1,068 MW of
nuclear. This new wind capacity will generate as much electricity as
12 nuclear reactors; the last time the nuclear industry managed to
add this amount of new capacity in a single year was in 1988.
Despite the rhetoric of a ‘nuclear renaissance’, the industry is
struggling with a massive increase in costs and construction delays
as well as safety and security problems linked to reactor operation,
radioactive waste and nuclear proliferation.




                                                                                                                                                       © DMYTRO/DREAMSTIME
                                                                                                                                                       © I. BRACEGIRDLE/DREAMSTIME
   BY 2020, UNDER THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION
   SCENARIO THE GLOBAL SHARE OF NUCLEAR
                                                                                                                  © ROBERT KNOTH/GP




   ELECTRICITY ENERGY DROPS FROM TODAY’S 14%
   DOWN TO 7%. AFTER 2030 THE SHARE IS ONLY 1%.



images left to right 1. DSUNUSOVA GULSUM (43) IS SUFFERING FROM A BRAIN TUMOUR. SHE LIVES IN THE NUCLEAR BOMB TESTING AREA IN THE EAST KAZAKH REGION
OF KAZAKHSTAN. 2. HIGH MARNHAM COAL-FIRED POWER STATION ON THE RIVER TRENT IN NOTTINGHAMSHIRE, UK.




                                                                                                                                                       15
we must
     take action
     now!
     Governments around the world must        1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy
     to show they are serious about climate
                                              2. Internalise the external (social and environmental) costs of energy
     change by acting now to bring about
                                                 production through “cap and trade” emissions trading
     an Energy [R]evolution.
     We need our global leaders to:           3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming appliances,
                                                 buildings and vehicles
                                              4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy
                                                 and combined heat and power generation
                                              5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority access
                                                 to the grid for renewable power generators
                                              6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors,
                                                 for example by feed-in tariff programmes
                                              7. Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy
                                                 and energy efficiency



                                              you can make it happen
                                              Get active For a full copy of the report and a chance to join
                                              the revolution go to: www.greenpeace.org/energyrevolution

                                              Note: The Energy [R]evolution report published
                                              in June 2010 has 2 different energy [r]evolution
                                              scenarios. A moderate one with a global target of
                                              reducing 50% energy related CO2 globally by 2050
                                              and an advanced one with a target of over 80% CO2
                                              reduction (Basis 1990 level) In this publication we
                                              only present the results of the advanced energy
                                              [r]evolution scenario.

                                                                                                                           STANDBY POWER IS WASTED POWER.
                                                                                                                           GLOBALLY, WE HAVE 50 DIRTY
                                                                                                                           POWER PLANTS RUNNING JUST
                                                                                                                           FOR OUR WASTED STANDBY POWER.
                                                                                                                           © M. DIETRICH/DREAMSTIME




                                              Help us Greenpeace is an independent campaigning organisation. We do not accept money
                                              from government or corporations. That’s why our financial supporters are our lifeblood,
                                              To find out more go to: www.greenpeace.org/international/supportus

                                              project manager and lead author: Sven Teske, Greenpeace International research & co-authors: DLR, Institute of
                                              Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany: Dr. Wolfram
                                              Krewitt (†), Dr. Thomas Pregger, Dr. Sonja Simon, Dr. Tobias Naegler, Ecofys BV, Utrecht, The Netherlands: Wina Graus,
                                              Eliane Blomen online version of the full Energy [R]evolution scenario: www.energyblueprint.info editor: Alexandra Dawe
                                              design & layout: onehemisphere, Sweden printing: PrimaveraQuint, The Netherlands cover image: © Paul Langrock/
                                              Zenit/Greenpeace contact: sven.teske@greenpeace.org, or info@greenpeace.org June 2010.



16

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A Blueprint for a Global Renewable Energy Future

  • 1. energy [r]evolution A SUSTAINABLE WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 3 1 THE THREE STEP APPROACH EFFICIENCY / RENEWABLES / STRUCTURE
  • 2. © GREENPEACE/WILL ROSE a blueprint for a global smart power 7 renewable energy renewable energy future 3 = energy security 12 using and producing the energy [r]evolution: smart energy 8 renewables: no emissions, the global context 4 no fuel costs, no problem 13 renewable electricity working for the climate 5 generation 10 quitting coal 14 shifting the CO2 trend 6 keeping energy affordable 10 phasing out nuclear power 15 contents image AN INDIGENOUS NENET FAMILY WITH THEIR YOUNGEST SON, OUTSIDE OF THEIR CHUME (TEPEE). IT IS TRADITION THAT THE YOUNGEST SON INHERITS THE CHUME BUT HE ALSO HAS THE RESPONSIBILITY TO LOOK AFTER THE PARENTS WHEN THEY ARE OLD AND SICK. THE INDIGENOUS NENETS PEOPLE MOVE EVERY 3 OR 4 DAYS SO THAT THEIR REINDEER DO NOT OVER GRAZE THE GROUND AND THEY DO NOT OVER FISH THE LAKES. THE YAMAL PENINSULA IS UNDER HEAVY THREAT FROM GLOBAL WARMING AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND RUSSIA’S ANCIENT PERMAFROST MELTS. 2
  • 3. “will we look into the eyes a blueprint for a global of our children and confess renewable energy future that we had the opportunity, but lacked the courage? The Energy [R]evolution Scenario provides a practical blueprint that we had the technology, for the world’s renewable energy future, and was developed in but lacked the vision?” conjunction with specialists from the Institute of Technical Thermodynamics at the German Aerospace Centre (DLR) and more than 30 scientists and engineers from universities, institutes and the renewable energy industry around the world. The report demonstrates how the world can get from where we are now, to where we need to be in terms of phasing out fossil fuels, cutting CO2 while ensuring energy security. This includes illustrating how the world’s carbon emissions from the energy and transport sectors alone can peak by 2015 and be cut by over 80% by 2050. This phase-out of fossil fuels offers substantial other benefits such as independence from world market fossil fuel prices as well as the creation of millions of new green jobs. The Energy [R]evolution Scenario only uses proven technologies and is based on five key principles: 1. Equity and fairness 2. Respect natural limits 3. Phase out dirty, unsustainable energy 4. Implement renewable solutions and decentralise energy systems 5. Decouple growth from fossil fuel use E TIM MS REA NS/D TO SUCCESSFULLY COMBAT CLIMATE CHANGE, RGE WE URGENTLY NEED A REVOLUTION IN THE WAY JUE ND WE PRODUCE, CONSUME AND DISTRIBUTE ENERGY. BER L. © ANE RP OLA ge S ima 3
  • 4. the energy [r]evolution: the global context The Energy [R]evolution scenario creates greater equity in the reduce their CO2 emissions earlier than other developing use of resources whilst providing a secure and affordable energy economies, peaking no later than 2015. supply and maintaining steady global economic development. Total global emissions need to return to current levels by 2020. The report takes into account rapid economic growth areas For this to be achieved, industrialised economies such as the such as China, India, Brazil and Africa. USA, the European Community and Australia have to reduce The implementation of efficiency standards is an example of their greenhouse gas emissions by up to 30% below 1990 levels. how this can be achieved. By decreasing the per capita energy Developing countries like China and India need to peak CO2 use in industrialised countries and slowing down the increase of emissions by 2025 and start reducing emissions towards 2030 energy demand in developing countries, energy consumption can and beyond while providing a secure and affordable energy be ‘shared’ in a more balanced way. However, by 2020 the per supply and, critically, maintaining steady worldwide economic capita energy use in the USA, Europe or Australia is still higher development. The Energy [R]evolution provides clear pathways than in China or India. Therefore OECD countries have to as to how to achieve those reductions. figure 1: CO2 emissions per capita Middle East Africa Developing Asia India China Transition Economies Latin America OECD Pacific • • 2050 2020 OECD North America OECD Europe • 2007 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 t/CO2 THE LONG-TERM GOAL FOR THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION IS TO CREATE ENERGY EQUITY VIA RENEWABLE ENERGY. CUTTING CO2 © GREENPEACE/JAMES PEREZ EMISSIONS DOES NOT MEAN CUTTING ECONOMIC GROWTH. image LUZ INTERNATIONAL SOLAR POWER PLANT, CALIFORNIA, USA. 4
  • 5. working for the climate The Energy [R]evolution is also creating a green jobs revolution. figure 2: global employment • By 2015 the global power supply sector under the Energy [R]evolution scenario could create up to 12.5 million jobs. 14 That is 4.5 million more than if business continues as usual. 12 • • OCEAN ENERGY SOLAR THERMAL • By 2020 over 8 million jobs in the renewables sector would be created due a much faster uptake of renewables, 10 • • GEOTHERMAL PV four-times more than today. • By 2030 the Energy [R]evolution scenario will create about 8 6 • • WIND HYDRO 12 million jobs, that is 8.5 million in the renewables sector alone. Without this fast growth in the renewable sector global 4 • • BIOMASS NUCLEAR power jobs will be a mere 2.4 million. Thus by implementing the Energy [R]evolution there will be 3.2 million or over 2 million 0 • • GAS & OIL COAL 2015 2020 2030 2015 2020 2030 33% more jobs by 2030 in the global power supply sector. REF Adv E[R] © GREENPEACE/DEAN SEWELL BY 2020 TWO THIRDS OF THE DIRECT EMPLOYMENT IN THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO COMES FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY, EVEN THOUGH RENEWABLES ACCOUNT FOR ONLY 38% OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION. THIS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ELECTRICITY OUTPUT AND JOBS ILLUSTRATES THAT THE RENEWABLES SECTOR HAS GREATER “LABOUR INTENSITY” – OR MORE PEOPLE PER UNIT OF POWER PRODUCED. INVESTING IN RENEWABLE POWER SAVES FUEL COSTS WHICH MEANS IT CAN INVEST IN WORKERS. image IN WAUBRA, CENTRAL VICTORIA, ONE OF AUSTRALIA’S LARGEST WIND TURBINE FARMS IS CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION. 5
  • 6. shifting the CO2 trend Global CO2 emissions under the Energy [R]evolution scenario figure 4: global regional breakdown of CO2 emissions will peak in 2015 and drop afterwards. Compared with today in the advanced energy [r]evolution in 2050 CO2 emissions will be more than 80% lower by 2050 when the energy supply is based almost entirely on renewable energies. 4% 7% LATIN AMERICA OECD NORTH AMERICA While global emissions fall regional shares shift. OECD 6% OECD EUROPE countries reduce their emissions faster which see their share 2% 13% OECD PACIFIC of the global output drop from just over 50% today AFRICA 4% 8% to 38% in 2020. This is achieved by implementing renewable MIDDLE EAST TRANSITION ECONOMIES energy and energy efficiency standards. 13% OTHER ASIA figure 3: global development of CO2 emissions 28% by sector under the two scenarios CHINA 15% INDIA Mil t/a 50,000 9,000 8,000 40,000 7,000 6,000 30,000 5,000 4,000 20,000 3,000 10,000 2,000 1,000 0 0 REF adv REF adv REF adv REF adv REF adv REF adv E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 • • SAVINGS FROM ‘EFFICIENCY’ & RENEWABLES OTHER SECTORS • TRANSPORT • INDUSTRY • PUBLIC ELECTRICITY & CHP BY 2020, OECD COUNTRIES CUT DOWN CO2 EMISSIONS BY ABOUT 30% - SHIFTING THE TREND NO LATER THAN 2015 IS ESSENTIAL TO © ITALIANESTRO/DREAMSTIME MEET THIS GOAL. THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION CONCEPT SHOWS HOW IT CAN BE DONE. 6
  • 7. smart power On a global scale the Energy [R]evolution can save about 70 Exa-Joule compared to business as usual - this is enough to satisfy Europe’s current entire energy demand. Measures such as: One of the key ways the world can fight climate change is by • improved insulation and design of our homes and offices becoming more energy efficient. Efficiency measures also reduce energy costs to consumers. If we do nothing global energy • implementation of super efficient home and office consumption is expected to increase by 20% by 2020 and up appliances via strict mandatory efficiency standards to 60% by 2050. However if we implement the Energy • replacement of electrical heaters and conventional [R]evolution scenario, energy efficiency measures allow us to hot water systems with renewable heat production decrease energy consumption within the next 10 years in (such as solar collectors) industrialised countries by 20%, while allowing for developing countries to increase their energy consumption by 20%. These offer some of the simplest, easiest, most cost effective ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. figure 5: global development of primary energy consumption under the two scenarios (‘EFFICIENCY’ = REDUCTION COMPARED TO THE REFERENCE SCENARIO) 800,000 600,000 • • ‘EFFICIENCY’ OCEAN ENERGY 400,000 • • GEOTHERMAL SOLAR • • BIOMASS WIND 200,000 • • HYDRO NATURAL GAS • • OIL COAL © PXLAR8/DREAMSTIME PJ/a 0 REF adv REF adv REF adv REF adv REF adv REF adv • NUCLEAR E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] E[R] 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 “RIGHT NOW ALL COMPUTER SERVERS WORLDWIDE DEVOUR MORE ELECTRICITY THAN THE ENTIRE DEMAND FROM FRANCE - AND ENERGY USE IS EXPECTED TO DOUBLE AGAIN IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS. COMPARED TO BEST PRACTICE SERVER TECHNOLOGIES, ABOUT HALF OF THIS ENERGY GOES TO WASTE – ENOUGH TO POWER AUSTRALIA. A STRICT EFFICIENCY STANDARD FOR SERVERS COULD TAKE 48 COAL POWER PLANTS OFF THE GRID – SAVING OVER 140 MILLION TONNES OF CO2.” 7
  • 8. using and producing smart energy Business as usual in the way we consume and produce energy The Energy [R]evolution uses a three step approach: is simply not an option any more. Besides catastrophic climate Step 1: Electrical efficiency change due to rising CO2 emissions, our resources are limited. Fossil fuel prices are increasing and consumers around the • Exploit all technical potential for electrical efficiency world are confronted with unaffordable energy bills. In order via technical standards to achieve a peak in emissions by 2015 and bring emissions Step 2: Structural changes down afterwards, we need to implement proven technologies in renewable energy and in efficiency now. • Change the way we produce energy in large centralised power stations towards a decentralised energy system using large-scale renewable resources which use locally available energy sources such as wind, sun or geothermal • Cogeneration – end the huge amounts of waste energy via cooling towers Step 3: Energy efficient transport • Build up efficient public transport systems • Implement efficient cars, trucks, etc. E OR . SH K O FF MAR GP / F OR DEN ENIT S G, /Z OR BIN ROCK T O RO G D NGK LAN IN I L W N R PAU G I IN Y © UC RG OD NE e PR D E N ag WI i m © OSCAR1319/DREAMSTIME SCENARIO PRINCIPLES IN A NUTSHELL: • SMART CONSUMPTION, GENERATION AND DISTRIBUTION 3 • ENERGY PRODUCTION MOVES CLOSER TO THE CONSUMER • MAXIMUM USE OF LOCALLY AVAILABLE, ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY FUELS image THE TECHNOLOGY FOR SOLAR PANELS WAS ORIGINAL INSPIRED BY NATURE. 8
  • 9. 1 figure 6: a decentralised energy future THE CITY CENTRES OF TOMORROW’S NETWORKED WORLD WILL PRODUCE POWER AND HEAT AS WELL AS CONSUME IT. THE ROOFS AND FAÇADES OF PUBLIC BUILDINGS ARE IDEAL FOR HARVESTING SOLAR ENERGY. ‘LOW ENERGY’ WILL BECOME THE STANDARD FOR ALL BUILDINGS. GOVERNMENTS COMMITTED TO TIGHT CLIMATE-PROTECTION TARGETS WILL HAVE TO IMPOSE STRICT CONDITIONS AND OFFER INCENTIVES FOR RENOVATING THESE BUILDINGS. THIS WILL HELP TO CREATE JOBS. city 1. PHOTOVOLTAIC, SOLAR FAÇADES WILL BE A DECORATIVE ELEMENT 3. SOLAR THERMAL COLLECTORS PRODUCE HOT WATER FOR BOTH ON OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS. PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS THEIR OWN AND NEIGHBOURING BUILDINGS. WILL BECOME MORE COMPETITIVE AND IMPROVED DESIGN WILL ENABLE ARCHITECTS TO USE THEM MORE WIDELY. 4. EFFICIENT THERMAL POWER (CHP) STATIONS WILL COME IN A VARIETY OF SIZES - FITTING THE CELLAR OF A DETACHED HOUSE OR 2. RENOVATION CAN CUT ENERGY CONSUMPTION OF OLD BUILDINGS BY SUPPLYING WHOLE BUILDING COMPLEXES OR APARTMENT BLOCKS AS MUCH AS 80% - WITH IMPROVED HEAT INSULATION, INSULATED WITH POWER AND WARMTH WITHOUT LOSSES IN TRANSMISSION. WINDOWS AND MODERN VENTILATION SYSTEMS. 5. CLEAN ELECTRICITY FOR THE CITIES WILL ALSO COME FROM FARTHER AFIELD. OFFSHORE WIND PARKS AND SOLAR POWER STATIONS IN DESERTS HAVE ENORMOUS POTENTIAL. suburbs 3 1. PHOTOVOLTAIC 2. MINI-COGENERATION POWER PLANT = COMBINED HEAT AND POWER (CHP) 3. SOLAR COLLECTORS (HEATING) 4. LOW-ENERGY BUILDINGS 5. GEOTHERMAL HEAT AND POWER PLANT (CHP) 9
  • 10. renewable electricity keeping energy affordable generation The Energy [R]evolution scenario demonstrates how by 2020 If we carry on, business as usual, electricity supply costs will nearly an impressive 38% of our electricity needs can be met by double by 2020. Unchecked growth in energy demand, increases renewable energy. Established technologies such as wind and in fossil fuel prices and the cost of CO2 emissions result in total solar take the early lead, but rapidly emerging technologies such electricity supply costs rising from today’s $1,450 billion per year as concentrating solar thermal, geothermal and ocean energy, to more than $2,800 billion in 2020, and 5,300 billion by 2050. all contribute to our 2020 energy mix. figure 7: global electricity generation today and in 2020 under the energy [r]evolution scenario 2020 • • COAL LIGNITE 18% 31% 28% • • GAS OIL & DIESEL 38% 15% today • • NUCLEAR RENEWABLES 3% 7% 9% 20% 6% 22% 3% BY MOVING AWAY FROM FOSSIL FUELS AND REDUCING CARBON EMISSIONS, THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO STABILISES ENERGY COSTS FOR CONSUMERS. BETWEEN 2015 AND 2020, MOST RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES BECOME CHEAPER THAN COAL. D. LAN E ZEAMSTIM , NEW/DREA PL ANT GH GOU ER © JOE L POW MA HER EOT ge G 10 ima
  • 11. The Energy [R]evolution Scenario not only complies with global CO2 figure 8: global development of total electricity reduction targets it also helps to stabilise energy costs and relieve supply costs & development of specific electricity the economic pressure on society. Increasing energy efficiency and generation costs under two scenarios shifting energy supply to renewables leads to long term costs for electricity generation that are one third lower than if we continue in 6,000 15 our current trends. It becomes clear that pursuing stringent environmental targets in the energy sector also pays off financially. 5,000 4,000 10 $¢/kWh 3,000 2,000 5 1,000 B $/a 0 0 2007 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 • • ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION - ‘EFFICIENCY’ MEASURES REFERENCE SCENARIO • ADVANCED ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO © PAUL LANGROCK/ZENIT/GREENPEACE WITH AN ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION, EVEN BY 2020, WIND FARMS WILL REPLACE THE ELECTRICITY GENERATED BY 450 MEDIUM-SIZED COAL-FIRED POWER STATIONS. EMERGING ECONOMIES SUCH AS CHINA AND INDIA ARE ALREADY AMONG THE WORLD’S LEADING NATIONS IN WIND TECHNOLOGY, TOGETHER WITH THE USA, GERMANY, SPAIN AND DENMARK. IN 2009, THE WIND INDUSTRY EMPLOYED OVER 400,000 PEOPLE. image TEST WINDMILL N90 2500, BUILT BY THE GERMAN COMPANY NORDEX, IN THE HARBOUR OF ROSTOCK. THIS WINDMILL PRODUCES 2,5 MEGA WATT AND IS TESTED UNDER OFFSHORE CONDITIONS. TWO TECHNICIANS WORKING INSIDE THE TURBINE. 11
  • 12. renewable energy = energy security Nature offers a variety of freely available options for producing figure 9: energy resources of the world energy. Their exploitation is mainly a question of how to convert sunlight, wind, biomass or water into electricity, heat or power as efficiently, sustainably and cost-effectively as possible. SOLAR ENERGY 2850 TIMES On average, the energy in the sunshine that reaches the earth is about one kilowatt per square metre worldwide. According to the Research Association for Solar Power, power is gushing from renewable energy sources at a rate of 2,850 times more energy than is needed in the world. WIND ENERGY 200 TIMES In one day alone the sunlight which reaches the earth produces enough energy to satisfy the world’s current power requirements BIOMASS for eight years. Even though only a percentage of that potential 20 TIMES is technically accessible, this is still enough to provide around six times more power than the world currently requires. GEOTHERMAL HYDROPOWER ENERGY 5 TIMES ENERGY 1 TIMES RESOURCES WAVE-TIDAL ENERGY 2 TIMES table 2: technical potential by renewable energy OF THE WORLD technology for 2050 vs world primary energy POTENTIAL OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES ALL RENEWABLE demand 2007 WORLD ENERGY DEMAND 2007: 502.9 EJ/A a ENERGY SOURCES PROVIDE 3078 TIMES THE CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS TECHNICAL POTENTIAL VERSUS WORLD POWER DEMAND IN 2007 Solar CSP 3.4 times source WBGU Solar PV 16.0 times Hydro power 0.1 times Wind on-shore 0.8 times Wind off-shore 0.1 times © I. MCDONNELL/ISTOCK Ocean energy 0.7 times Geothermal electric 0.1 times TECHNICAL POTENTIAL VERSUS WORLD HEATING DEMAND IN 2007 Geothermal direct uses 9.9 times Solar water heating 0.2 times TECHNICAL POTENTIAL VERSUS PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND - TOTAL THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO USES TOTAL 32 times ONLY 1.3% OF THE KNOWN AVAILABLE source DLR, WUPPERTAL INSTITUTE, ECOFYS; ROLE AND POTENTIAL RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES OF DEVELOPED OF RENEWABLE ENERGY AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY FOR GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLY; COMMISSIONED BY THE GERMAN FEDERAL ENVIRONMENT ECONOMIES BY 2020 ALONE WILL PROVIDE 21% AGENCY FKZ 3707 41 108, MARCH 2009; POTENTIAL VERSUS ENERGY DEMAND: S. TESKE a IEA 2009 OF GLOBAL ENERGY NEEDS (BY 2020). image BREAKING WAVE, MEXICO. 12
  • 13. renewables: no emissions, no fuel costs, no problem Because renewable energy has no fuel costs, the total financial The average annual investment in the power sector under the savings until 2030 outlined in the Energy [R]evolution reach a total Energy [R]evolution Scenario between 2007 and 2030 would be of $6.5 trillion, or $282 billion per year A comparison between approximately $782 billion. This is equal to the current amount the extra fuel costs associated with business as usual and the extra of subsidies paid for fossil fuels globally in under three years. investment costs of the Energy [R]evolution shows that the average These renewable energy sources will produce electricity without any annual additional fuel costs of the former are higher than the further fuel costs beyond 2030, while the costs for coal and gas additional investment requirements of the Energy [R]evolution. will continue to be a burden on national economies. The Energy [R]evolution pays for the environment, the climate and the economy. figure 10: investment shares - reference versus advanced energy [r]evolution image BIOGAS FACILITY “SCHRADEN BIOGAS” IN GROEDEN NEAR DRESDEN, GERMANY. REF 2007 - 2030 adv E[R] 2007 - 2030 8% NUCLEAR POWER 17% FOSSIL 43% RENEWABLES 13% CHP total 11.2 trillion $ total 17.9 trillion $ 39% FOSSIL 10% CHP 70% RENEWABLES © LANGROCK/ZENIT/GP A COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EXTRA FUEL COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH BUSINESS AS USUAL AND THE EXTRA INVESTMENT COSTS OF THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SHOWS THAT THE AVERAGE ANNUAL ADDITIONAL FUEL COSTS ARE HIGHER THAN THE ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT REQUIREMENTS OF THE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO. 13
  • 14. quitting coal The single biggest contributor to global greenhouse emissions is burning coal. The Energy [R]evolution shows that by greatly increasing the amount of renewable energy in our system, using gas as a transitional fuel and introducing assertive energy efficiency measures, we can start removing coal fired power from the grid, shutting them down at the end of their working life. From 2020 onwards, the coal electricity share starts to decrease. By 2020, 30% of the currently operating coal power plants in industrialised countries are retired and replaced by a mix of renewable, co-generation and energy efficiency. AUSTRALIA CAN TAKE COAL FIRED POWER STATIONS OFF THE GRID AT THE RATE OF MORE THAN ONE A YEAR. COAL CAN BE PHASED OUT © GP/MURPHY ENTIRELY IN AUSTRALIA BY 2030. image UPPER HUNTER VALLEY COAL MINES, NSW, AUSTRALIA. image [large] SIGN ON A RUSTY DOOR AT CHERNOBYL ATOMIC STATION, UKRAINE. 14
  • 15. phasing out nuclear power Nuclear energy is a relatively minor industry with major problems. The dangers of nuclear power It covers just one sixteenth of the world’s primary energy Although the generation of electricity through nuclear power consumption, a share set to decline over the coming decades. produces much less carbon dioxide than fossil fuels, The average age of operating commercial nuclear reactors is 23 there are multiple threats to people and the environment years, so more power stations are being shut down than started up. from its operations. The main risks are: In 2008, world nuclear production fell by 2% compared to 2006, and the number of operating reactors as of January 2010 was 436, • Nuclear proliferation eight less than at the historical peak of 2002. • Nuclear waste In terms of new power stations, the amount of nuclear capacity added • Safety risks annually between 2000 and 2009 was on average 2,500 MWe. This was six times less than wind power (14,500 MWe per annum between 2000 and 2009). In 2009, 37,466 MW of new wind power capacity was added globally to the grid, compared to only 1,068 MW of nuclear. This new wind capacity will generate as much electricity as 12 nuclear reactors; the last time the nuclear industry managed to add this amount of new capacity in a single year was in 1988. Despite the rhetoric of a ‘nuclear renaissance’, the industry is struggling with a massive increase in costs and construction delays as well as safety and security problems linked to reactor operation, radioactive waste and nuclear proliferation. © DMYTRO/DREAMSTIME © I. BRACEGIRDLE/DREAMSTIME BY 2020, UNDER THE ENERGY [R]EVOLUTION SCENARIO THE GLOBAL SHARE OF NUCLEAR © ROBERT KNOTH/GP ELECTRICITY ENERGY DROPS FROM TODAY’S 14% DOWN TO 7%. AFTER 2030 THE SHARE IS ONLY 1%. images left to right 1. DSUNUSOVA GULSUM (43) IS SUFFERING FROM A BRAIN TUMOUR. SHE LIVES IN THE NUCLEAR BOMB TESTING AREA IN THE EAST KAZAKH REGION OF KAZAKHSTAN. 2. HIGH MARNHAM COAL-FIRED POWER STATION ON THE RIVER TRENT IN NOTTINGHAMSHIRE, UK. 15
  • 16. we must take action now! Governments around the world must 1. Phase out all subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear energy to show they are serious about climate 2. Internalise the external (social and environmental) costs of energy change by acting now to bring about production through “cap and trade” emissions trading an Energy [R]evolution. We need our global leaders to: 3. Mandate strict efficiency standards for all energy consuming appliances, buildings and vehicles 4. Establish legally binding targets for renewable energy and combined heat and power generation 5. Reform the electricity markets by guaranteeing priority access to the grid for renewable power generators 6. Provide defined and stable returns for investors, for example by feed-in tariff programmes 7. Increase research and development budgets for renewable energy and energy efficiency you can make it happen Get active For a full copy of the report and a chance to join the revolution go to: www.greenpeace.org/energyrevolution Note: The Energy [R]evolution report published in June 2010 has 2 different energy [r]evolution scenarios. A moderate one with a global target of reducing 50% energy related CO2 globally by 2050 and an advanced one with a target of over 80% CO2 reduction (Basis 1990 level) In this publication we only present the results of the advanced energy [r]evolution scenario. STANDBY POWER IS WASTED POWER. GLOBALLY, WE HAVE 50 DIRTY POWER PLANTS RUNNING JUST FOR OUR WASTED STANDBY POWER. © M. DIETRICH/DREAMSTIME Help us Greenpeace is an independent campaigning organisation. We do not accept money from government or corporations. That’s why our financial supporters are our lifeblood, To find out more go to: www.greenpeace.org/international/supportus project manager and lead author: Sven Teske, Greenpeace International research & co-authors: DLR, Institute of Technical Thermodynamics, Department of Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment, Stuttgart, Germany: Dr. Wolfram Krewitt (†), Dr. Thomas Pregger, Dr. Sonja Simon, Dr. Tobias Naegler, Ecofys BV, Utrecht, The Netherlands: Wina Graus, Eliane Blomen online version of the full Energy [R]evolution scenario: www.energyblueprint.info editor: Alexandra Dawe design & layout: onehemisphere, Sweden printing: PrimaveraQuint, The Netherlands cover image: © Paul Langrock/ Zenit/Greenpeace contact: sven.teske@greenpeace.org, or info@greenpeace.org June 2010. 16