Presentation to the Transport Planning Society (TPS) on the benefits and challenges of driverless and autonomous cars with an Irish context

2. A DriverlessFuture?
Challenges & Opportunities
TPS – Dublin City Council Wood Quay
February 7th2017
John Holland

3. Contents
Threefold Services
Driverless Cars – Key Benifits
Levelsof Autonomy
New Technology Adoption
Levels of Autonomy over time
Autonomous – Key Challenges
100’s of Autonomous trials globally
National Movers & shakers
Action really is needed now
Some Interesting Video Links

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5. Driverless*cars– KeyBenefits
Social &Environmental
•Safety- Humanerrorisrecognisedasthe
cause~90% of road accidents
•Socialinclusion– Elderly,blind,disabled,
rural,youth
•Lowerpollution-de-carbonisation of
transportation
•De-cluttering of streetscape and
roadscapese.g.roadsigns,gantries
eventrafficlights
•Efficientintegratedtransportsystems
•Lesscommuting stress
•Betteruseofurbanspace
•Driving time= personalorfamily time
Economic
•Capitalefficiency - Carissecondmost
expensivepossessionandutilisation is
~5-7%
•Safety- Economiccost ofroad
accidents in2010intheUS was
$277billion
•Morgan Stanley estimate full
autonomous transportwouldsave$5.6
trillionannually
•TopfiveOEMsspent$46billiononR&D
in2015
*FullyAutonomous
•Driving time= work time

6. Levels ofAutonomy
Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4
HighAutomation
SAE
Level 5
FullAutomation
NHTSAandSAE LevelsofAutomation
Function-specific
Automation
DriverAssistance
Combined
Function
Automation
PartialAutomation
Specific environment
Self-Driving
Automation
ConditionalAutomation
FullSelf-DrivingAutomation
NHTSALevel4
ACC ESC ACC LKA V2V Platoon++ AI
DLNN
EBS

7. NewTechnology Adoption
Allnew innovations
have challenges
and take time to be
fully appreciated
andadopted
Technophobia
and resistanceto
changeis a well
know
phenomenon
with some
justification
We often know
witha high degree
of certainty that
a technology will
be adopted, we
just don’t have
certainty onwhen!

8. LevelsofAutonomyovertime
Handsoff,Feetoff BrainOff IncentivesOff
EarlyAdoption BecomingMainstream Ubiquity
2016 - 2025
•Increasing automation of
driving functions, even on
affordablecars
•Adaptive CruiseControl,
Automatic Emergency
Breaking,Automatic Lane
keeping, Pedestrian collision
avoidance
•Increased charging
infrastructureand
governmentincentives
• AVhighwaydriving
•Innovatorentrepreneurs
starttohireoutAVs
•AV Taxicompanies,
beginningoftaxiindustry
disruption
2025 - 2035
•Accidents/collisions
significantlyreduce
•Fully autonomous vehicles
starttobecome mainstream
• Busservicedisruption
- segregated or guided bus-
ways becomefully
driverlessbringingcosts
down
• AVcity&B-roaddriving
•Vehicleto vehicle,and
vehicletoinfrastructure
communication technology
matures
•Vehicleson demand- no
reductioninavailabilityor
qualityofservices
2035 - on
•Urban road-space
optimisation - narrower
lanes,tighterintersection
etc.
•Reduced need for urban
parking - re-
inventing/relocating car
parks, on-street parking
space for other uses
(walking,cycling, market
stalls)
• Eliminationof
accidents/collisions

9. Autonomous– Some KeyChallenges
Legislation &
regulation
• EU legislation ‘driver’
must be incontrol –
local legislation can
redefine‘driver’
• Trolleydilemma
Politics,Industrial
Relations etc
• Many stakeholders.
Consensus will be
difficult. Early dialogue
and planning to
minimiseissues
Technology
• Technology at early
stages
• Nointernationally
agreedstandards
Borders
• Brexit
• LHD/RHD
Cost
• Fallingrapidly
• Incentives willl be
needed to seed
market
Infrastructure
planning
• Overprovision/
underprovision
• Evolution of planning,
knowledge andtraining
Security
• Cybersecurity
• Privacy
• Failurescenarios
Insurance
• Verybigchanges-
Insured“driver”
• Bigreductions in
claims but also
revenues
Introduction/
Transition
• Acceptance
• Driverbehavior
Other
downsides
• Lowertaxrevenues
• Less organdonors

10. 100’sofAutonomoustrialsglobally
Singapore:
Driverless CabsSince
September2016
Pitsburg:
Uber Driverless Cabs
Since September2016
Tokyo:
Driverless CarsFor
2020Olympics
Beijing:
Baidu AutonomousCars
Commercialby 2019
Milton Keyns:
Public Driverless
Car Trials Oct2016
Paris:
Driverless BusTrials
January2017
Governments around the world are increasing focus &investment

11. NationalMovers&shakers
U.S.
$4 Billion over next 10 years to
EncourageAutonomous/Driverless
Cars–WSJ January 2016
NTATransport Strategy
forthe GreaterDublin
Area 2016 –2035:No reference to
Autonomous/Driverlesscars!

12. Actionin Irelandisneedednow
Start
Stakeholder
dialogue as
soon as
possible
•Department ofTransport
Tourism &Sport
•Department of Jobs
Enterprise andInnovation
•Department ofAn
Taoiseach
•Department ofFinance
•NTA&TII
•RSA
•OEM’s
Develop a
National
Strategy
•Legislation/regulationto
supporttrials
•Fundinganddirectivesto
encourage and promote
trialsandpilots
•Evolvestrategyand
legislationbasedon
international &national
learning’s
•Tie all elements of our
transportationstrategy
togetherunderasingle
entity
• There are
undoubtedlyhuge
benefits to society
from autonomous
vehicles
• The huge effort
to resolve the
challenges willbe
worthit!
• Ireland may not be at
the forefront, but
without action a
betterquality of life
for many as well as
our global
competitiveness will
bedamaged.
Priority #1: Create the right environment through regulation/Legislation

14. SomeInteresting Links
SAE On-Road Automated Driving (ORAD) Comitee http://profiles.sae.org/tevavs/
NHTSA https://www.nhtsa.gov/technology-innovation/automated-vehicles
YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XEebyt6G5kM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSmTF6KoUb8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJ96wnza12E
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZ5bHAcnjzs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z5O4Yl6ZB4k

15. Thank you for listening