Strategic Thinking About Long-Term 'Above Ground' Orebody Complexity Using Scenarios

STRATEGIC THINKING ABOUT LONG-
TERM 'ABOVE GROUND' OREBODY
COMPLEXITY USING SCENARIOS
J.P. Sykes1234, A. Trench125, T.C. McCuaig16, M. Jessell1, and T. Craske7
1. Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia (UWA)
2. Business School, UWA
3. MinEx Consulting Pty Ltd, Melbourne, VIC
4. Director, Greenfields Research Ltd, North Yorkshire, UK
5. CRU Group, London, UK.
6. BHP Geoscience Centre of Excellence, Perth, WA
7. Thinkercafé and Geowisdom, Perth, WA
Complex Orebodies Conference
Brisbane, QLD
19-20 November 2018

19 Nov 2018
Strategic Thinking About Long-Term 'Above Ground' Orebody Complexity Using Scenarios
Slide 2 of 35
“The test of a first-rate
intelligence is the ability to hold
two opposed ideas in mind at the
same time and still retain the
ability to function.”
• F. Scott Fitzgerald

AIMS
19 Nov 2018
Slide 3 of 35
1. Explain what is wrong with strategic planning and why we need scenarios;
2. Explain what scenarios are (and their many variants);
3. Show an example of a scenarios programme: the CET ‘Future of Exploration’ Scenarios
4. MAIN FOCUS: Discuss the benefits of scenarios as a strategic thinking tool

THINKING DIFFERENTLY ABOUT
STRATEGY USING SCENARIOS
19 Nov 2018
Slide 4 of 35

STRATEGIC PLANNING IS OMNIPRESENT BUT FLAWED
19 Nov 2018
Slide 5 of 35
• Strategic planning as a formal analytical
process has received much scholarly,
practitioner and popular criticism;
• Henry Mintzberg is a key scholarly critic;
• Pierre Wack, a strategic planner at Shell
replaced inadequate ‘planning’ with
‘scenarios’ at the time of the 1970’s oil
crises;
• In the popular imagination the role of
Robert McNamara in the Vietnam War is
the ‘planning school’ legacy;
• In case the lessons were forgotten, the
early 21st century saw both political and
financial disasters as a result of
inadequate planning processes.
Unmentioned source: Freedman, 2013, Strategy: A History; Images: Amazon (book covers), Wikipedia, Wikipedia, Wikipedia, Huff Post

…INCLUDING WITHIN THE MINING INDUSTRY!
19 Nov 2018
Slide 6 of 35
THE AMOUNT OF CAPITAL GLOBAL MINING
COMPANIES WROTE OFF OVER THE LAST 10 YEARS,
IN ONE CHART
• Global mining companies invested almost $US1 trillion in
major projects between 2008-2017.
• Despite strong industry conditions, almost one third of that
— $US273 billion — was written off.
(really!?!)
Source: Jacobs, 2013; Image: Getty

STRATEGIC PLANNING IS NOT STRATEGIC THINKING
19 Nov 2018
Slide 7 of 35
“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything!”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
BAD
STATEGY
GOOD
STATEGY*
…or as we say your strategy must ‘pass through a brain’
*with apologies to Richard Rumelt

FOCUS ON THE DECISION-MAKER, NOT THE DECISION
19 Nov 2018
Slide 8 of 35
• The ‘classic’ 1973 Shell scenarios – DID NOT predict the oil crisis of
that year… but DID realise that:
– The world was moving from over- to undersupply (the ‘rapids’);
– The Middle East was a new key producer (the ‘rapids’);
– Japan a new major source of demand (the ‘rapids’);
– A price spike was possible (the ‘rapids’);
– Such a spike could lead to demand destruction (‘new habitat’);
– And lean times may be ahead for the Western oil majors (‘new habitat’)
• Managers recognised these ‘archetypal’ situations and reacted faster
than competitors – restricting investment as prices spiked in
anticipation of the resultant falling demand;
• NOTE: Shell suffered like other ‘Western’ oil companies –
just not as much – a ‘good’ strategic outcome!
Sources: Wack, 1985a,b

WHAT ARE SCENARIOS?
19 Nov 2018
Slide 9 of 35

MANY TYPES, MANY USES, MUCH CONFUSION
19 Nov 2018
Slide 10 of 35
Sources: Ramirez & Selin, 2014
(left); Ramirez, 2008 (right)

QUANTITATIVE, SCIENTIFIC, PROBABILISTIC, OR…
19 Nov 2018
Slide 11 of 35
Scenarios for climate change… ..or for mine project evaluation
Sources: IPCC, 2014 (left); Vann et al., 2012 (right)

QUALITATIVE, ARTISTIC, PLAUSIBILISTIC…
19 Nov 2018
Slide 12 of 35
Scenarios for post-apartheid South Africa… ..or the future of energy
Sources: Kahane et al., 1996 (left);
Shell, 2008 (right)

SCENARIOS HAVE THEIR ORIGINS IN FILM
19 Nov 2018
Slide 13 of 35
Scenario, in film making, original idea for a film translated into a visually
oriented text. The scenario plan gives the mood of each image and its
relationship with the other shots in the sequence. The writer… sets up
[the] shot according to… directions that are given in the scenario.
A detailed scenario [indicates] the exact length of each shot, giving every
word of dialogue, and describing all sound effects and the music to be used in
each scene... A director may dispense with the scenario and direct the
action according to his own concept of what best brings out the theme.
Usually the director works with the scenario’s basic instructions and, as the
filming progresses, adapts them to the evolving action.
Source: Encyclopaedia Britannica

“Experts everywhere are
waking up to the something that
any child could tell them: that a
story is easier to listen to and
much easier to remember than a
dry string of facts and
propositions.”
- Lucy Kellaway
STORIES ARE HOW WE COMMUNICATE
19 Nov 2018
Slide 14 of 35
“History and tradition are
transmitted from one
generation to another not
through lectures and history
books, but through anecdotes
and stories.”
- Amos Tversky
“Many business strategy
books were essentially
collections of stories, each
intended to underline
some general point.”
- Sir Lawrence Freedman

THUS WE NEED TO LEARN TO ‘ANALYSE’ STORIES
19 Nov 2018
Slide 15 of 35
• However, as Daniel Kahneman describes stories
whilst drawing from our rich ‘System 1’ intuition
do have the power to deceive, without critical
thinking (our ‘System 2’), as such we all need to
become literary analysts / critics / theorists…
• Scenarios in this sense are about ideation &
hypothesis generation (‘System 1’) – not
hypothesis testing (‘System 2’).

HOW WE PROGRESSIVELY UNDERSTAND VIA STORIES…
19 Nov 2018
Slide 16 of 35
• Napoleon’s failed invasion of Russia (1812) or ‘The Patriotic War’ (to the Russians):
• First the facts:
Moscow
Source: Charles Joseph Minard, 1869

HOW WE PROGRESSIVELY UNDERSTAND VIA STORIES…
19 Nov 2018
Slide 17 of 35
Image: Napoleon's retreat by Vasily Vereshchagin
Prussian
military
strategist, Carl
von Clausewitz
in ‘On War’
(1832) saw it
as a ‘failure of
strategy’
Leo Tolstoy in
‘War & Peace’
(1869) saw it
as proof that
there was ‘no
such thing as
strategy’
Philosopher
Isaiah Berlin
used ‘War &
Peace’ to split
writers into
‘hedgehogs’ &
‘foxes’ (1953)
Evolutionary
biologist Stephen
J. Gould used the
‘Hedgehog & Fox’
metaphor to
describe the
interaction of art &
science (2003)
Today, political
scientist Philip
Tetlock uses the
‘Hedgehog & Fox’ to
describe the ‘art &
science’ of strategic
forecasting

THE ‘CET SCENARIOS’ ON THE FUTURE OF
MINERAL EXPLORATION
19 Nov 2018
Slide 18 of 35

SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF EXPLORATION
19 Nov 2018
Slide 19 of 35
For what are we exploring? How are we exploring?

Optimisation
Ideation
Counting
House
Under
Siege
The
Crusades
Peasants’
Revolt
Globalisation Sustainability
Marley
Scrooge
Fezziwig
Cratchit
& Tiny Tim
Star Trek
Star
Wars
Wonderland
1984
The
Wardrobe
Discworld
2. The ‘Novel’ Scenarios
1. The ‘Medieval’ Scenarios
3. The ‘Space’ Scenarios
4. The ‘Dickensian’ Scenarios
The
Energy
Transition
Technology…
…traps us
in a cycle
GLOBALISATION, SUSTAINABILITY, INNOVATION
• Emergent themes, i.e.
chosen by participants;
• Several evolutions;
• ‘Artistic’ influences;
• Covered the energy
transition, technology,
innovation, education,
skills, societal change,
geopolitics,
globalisation &
sustainable
development.

PRACTICAL USES OF THE SCENARIOS IN
STRATEGIZING
19 Nov 2018
Slide 21 of 35

SCENARIOS HELP KNOWLEDGE DEVELOPMENT
19 Nov 2018
Slide 22 of 35
• Interdisciplinary network building: The workshops create a tangible mutual interest upon which a solid relationship
can be built with professionals outside the minerals industry;
• Transferring tacit and explicit knowledge: The mix of professionals, academics, internal and outsiders in the
workshops facilitates the transfer of tacit and explicit knowledge increasing learning for all;
• Making strategy inclusive: The involved process of iteration, constantly requiring different people’s input creates better
links with the external environment and within the organisation;
• Facilitating insight: Scenarios help facilitate insight via exploration and immersion, connecting different people and
groups, surfacing coincidences, curiosities and contradictions, and by providing creative desperation;
• Learning about new subjects: The shared, exploratory learning is a good way of gaining initial understanding about
poorly understood and sometimes controversial subjects.
Sources: Nonaka, Toyama and Konno, 2000; Klein, 2013

MINING STRUGGLES WITH INTERDISCIPLINARY KNOWLEDGE
19 Nov 2018
Slide 23 of 35
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 Chapter 5 Chapter 6 Chapter 7 Chapter 8 Chapter 9
No. of Pages in the AusIMM Best Practice Guide to Ore Reserve &
Mineral Resource Estimation by ‘Modifying Factor’
General Technical & Non-Technical
General Non-Technical
Social, Legal & Government
Infrastructure
Environmental
Marketing
Economic
General Technical
Processing & Metallurgy
Mining
Geological
Non-'Factor' Related

YET THE ‘CET SCENARIOS’ DREW FROM A DIVERSE BUNCH…
19 Nov 2018
Slide 24 of 35
By profession
Three workshops; four sets of scenarios; sixty participants:
By experience By nationality By gender
Exploration
Mining
Other 0-10 yrs
11-20 yrs
21-30 yrs
30+ yrs
Aus & NZ
Europe
N. America
S. America
Asia
Africa
Male
Female
Other professions include anthropology, commerce, environmental science, geography, international relations, law, renewable energy, social science, and sustainability

SCENARIOS AID PROBLEM-SOLVING
19 Nov 2018
Slide 25 of 35
• Reframing ‘stuck’ issues: The
multiple perspectives generated
can help reframe strategic issues
that have become ‘stuck’;
• Reframing ‘stuck’ issues:
Scenarios operate at the order-
of-magnitude above the problem
being investigated, so called
‘upframing’. Such larger scale or
holistic thinking is linked to
creative problem solving.
Sources: Zhang, 2002b; Ramírez and Wilkinson, 2016
“If you can’t solve a
problem, enlarge it”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
[In this case… “the effort to determine how
China found America’s spies was a private
problem; now it’s a public problem. Making a
secret problem public is one way to make that
problem a higher priority”].

SCENARIOS STIMULATE CREATIVITY
19 Nov 2018
Slide 26 of 35
• Encouraging openness: The group nature of the work stimulates
creativity via extroversion and openness;
• More effective risk assessment: Scenario development is a useful
‘creative’ risk assessment tool that helps practitioners think more
broadly about the risks faced by an organisation;
• Developing new ideas: Some of the ‘wildest’ scenarios created,
involving space colonisation, global disease outbreaks, global war etc.,
contained within them unexpected lessons;
• Having fun: The workshops are good fun. A positive mood is linked
with open-mindedness and creativity. [Positivity also has organisational
culture benefits too].
Sources: Zhang and Huang, 2001; Hudson, 2001; Kahneman, 2012; Ramírez and Wilkinson, 2016

SCENARIOS DRIVE CRITICAL THINKING
19 Nov 2018
Slide 27 of 35
• Thinking about issues in multiple ways: The scenarios process utilises many different
styles of thinking – a sign of greater cognitive development;
Sources: Chamberlin, 1890; Zhang 2002a; Kahneman, 2012; Kenney & Pelley, 2014; Craske, 2016; Ramirez & Wilkinson, 2016
The ‘Deductive Scenarios’ Process
The ‘Inductive Scenarios’ Process
Systems Divergent Historical Convergent Parallel Creative Lateral Systems Analytical Convergent Strategic
Systems Divergent Historical Creative Lateral Parallel Convergent Systems Analytical Convergent Strategic

SCENARIOS IMPROVE STRATEGY PROCESS
19 Nov 2018
Slide 28 of 35
• Quick, easy, and cost-effective strategizing: Whilst the best outputs from scenarios do come from large diverse
teams, the scenarios process is just a thinking process, and as such can be done by an individual relatively quickly, easily,
and for little cost;
• Avoiding escalation of commitment: Having an easily modifiable strategy helps avoid ‘escalation of commitment’;
• Communicating strategic issues: Stories (‘scenarios’) are how we communicate and build organisational culture.
Communicating via stories helps convey depth, complexity, and richness in thinking;
• Effectively linking the present and the future: The story lines within the scenarios show how we can arrive at, or
avoid, a future situation via causal events;
• Making strategy relevant: The benefits of the scenarios do not end with their first use, they continue to be useful as an
ongoing template to help understand news as it emerges.
Sources: Staw, 1976; Kenney and Pelley, 2014; Groysberg et al., 2018

AVOIDING ESCALATION OF COMMITMENT
19 Nov 2018
Slide 29 of 35
“It was back in nineteen forty-two,
I was a member of a good platoon.
We were on maneuvers in-a Louisiana,
One night by the light of the moon.
The captain told us to ford a river,
That's how it all begun.
We were -- knee deep in the Big Muddy,
But the big fool said to push on…”
- Pete Seeger (1968)

ENCOURAGING ONGOING STRATEGIC THINKING & REVIEW
19 Nov 2018
Slide 30 of 35
• Scenarios encourage the ongoing and constant process
of strategic thinking and review or ‘strategic
conversation’, an approach also advocated by leading
military strategist, Lawrence Freedman (2013). He
compares strategizing to the writing of soap opera, in
that whilst each episode may have a conclusion, there
is no overall conclusion planned for the soap itself.
There is no break, or annual strategy ‘away
day’. The soap opera moves on and on.
Sources: van der Heijden, 2004; Freedman, 2013; Image: Neighbours

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
19 Nov 2018
Slide 31 of 35
• John Sykes would like to acknowledge the non-authoring member of his PhD committee, Nicolas Thebaud of the Centre for Exploration Targeting. All the authors
would like to acknowledge the efforts of the non-authoring members of the ‘CET Scenarios’ teams, whose work this paper is based on: Jonathan Bell (Greenfields
Exploration), Leila Ben Mcharek (UWA), Rob Bills (Emmerson Resources), Aaron Colleran (Evolution Mining), Aida Carneiro (UWA), Ivy Chen (CSA Global & Battery
Minerals), Liz Dallimore (KPMG), Deon deBruin (Ore Mineral Geochemistry), Edoaldo Di Dio (Hatch), Joe Dwyer (HiSeis), Nick Franey (Auris Minerals), Mayara Fraeda
Barbosa Teixeira (Federal University of Pará), Simon Gatehouse (BHP), Jeremie Giraud (UWA), Marcelo Godefroy (UWA), Chris Gonzalez (Monash University), Isabel
Granado (Department of Mines, Industry Regulation and Safety, Western Australia), Matt Greentree (Ausgold), David Groves (UWA), Mike Hannington (Zelia), Nick
Hayward (Teck), Mike Haederle (Rio Tinto), Amanda Hellberg (UWA), Paul Hodkiewicz (Anglo American), Amy Imbergamo (GHD), Constanza Jara (UWA), Caroline Johnson
(CSIRO & University of East Anglia), Heta Lampinen (UWA), Helen Langley (UWA), John Libby (Digirock), Martin Lynch (Author of ‘Mining in World History’), Stuart
Masters (CS-2), Mike Mead (Gold Fields), Adele Millard (Central Land Council, Northern Territory), Joanne Moo (Golder Associates), Suzanne Murray (AngloGold Ashanti),
Sandra Occhipinti (UWA), Ahmad Saleem (UWA), Ian Satchwell (Department of Chief Minister, Northern Territory), Rob Sills (China National Nonferrous Metals), John
Southalan (UWA), Dave Stevenson (Kenorland Minerals), Narendran Subramaniam (Transmin), Siobhan Sullivan (UWA), Dan Sully (Independence Group), Janet
Sutherland (Curtin University), Afira Tahmali (UWA), Marnie Tonkin (UWA), Jan Tunjic (Gold Road Resources), Marcus Tomkinson (MMG), Will Turner (Red 5), Stanislav
Ulrich (AngloGold Ashanti), Jessica Volich (BHP), Robert Wan (UWA), Peter Williams (HiSeis), and Marcus Willson (CSA Global). John Sykes would like to acknowledge the
financial support of a Centre for Exploration Targeting ‘Ad hoc’ Scholarship, internal funds from the School of Earth Sciences (UWA) for PhD students and an Australian
Government Research Training Program Scholarship, all of which supported the research published here and the related PhD research.

REFERENCES [1]
19 Nov 2018
Slide 32 of 35
• Chamberlin, T C, 1890. The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses, Science,15(366): 92-96.
• Craske, T, 2017. Advanced Thinking Skills: Two day workshop, Perth, 4-5 May (Geowisdom and Thinkercafé:Perth).
• Freedman, L, 2013. Strategy: A History, 752 p (Oxford University Press: Oxford).
• Groysberg, B, Lee, J, Price, J and Cheng, J Y-J, 2018. The Leader’s Guide to Corporate Culture: How to Manage the Eight Critical Elements of Organizational Life, Harvard Business Review, January-February: 44-52.
• Hudson, K M, 2001. Transforming a ConservativeCompany – One Laugh at a Time, Harvard BusinessReview, July-August: 45-53.
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2014, Climate Change 2014 – Synthesis Report – Summary for Policymakers: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf [Accessed:
18 November 2018]
• Jacobs, S, 2018, The amount of capital global mining companies wrote off over the last 10 years, in one chart, Business Insider Australia, 18 July: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/mining-industry-investment-
writedowns-2018-7 [Accessed: 18 November 2018]
• Kahane, A, 1996. The Mont Fleur Scenarios: What will South Africa be like in the year 2002?, Deeper News, 7(1): 1-23.
• Kahneman, D, 2012. Thinking, Fast and Slow, reprint edition, 512 p (Penguin: London).
• Kenney, S H and Pelley, B A, 2014. Stories that drive the future: how narratives can improve scenario planning, Strategy & Leadership,42(5): 28-33.
• Klein, G, 2013. Seeing What Others Don't: The RemarkableWays We Gain Insights, 306 p (Nicholas Brealey Publishing: Boston).
• Mintzberg, H, 1994. Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning, 458 p (Simon and Schuster:New York).
• Mintzberg, H, Ahlstrand, B and Lampel, J, 2009. Strategy Safari: Your Complete Guide to the Wilds of Strategic Management, second edition, 441 p (Pearson Education: Harlow).
• Nonaka, I, Toyama, R and Konno, N, 2000. SECI, Ba and Leadership: a Unified Model of Dynamic Knowledge Creation, Long Range Planning, 33: 5-34.
• Ramírez, R, 2008. Forty Years of Scenarios:Retrospect and Prospect,in Mapping the Management Journey:Practice, Theory and Context (eds. S. Dopson & M. Earl), Oxford University Press: 307-319.

REFERENCES [2]
19 Nov 2018
Slide 33 of 35
• Ramírez, R and Selin, C, 2014. Plausibility and probability in scenario planning, Foresight, 16(1): 54-74.
• Ramírez, R and Wilkinson, A, 2016. Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach,272 p (Oxford University Press: Oxford).
• Shell, 2013, New Lens Scenarios: A Shift in Perspectivefor a World in Transition: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future.html[Accessed: 18 November
2018]
• Staw, B M, 1976. Knee-deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 16: 27-44.
• Sykes, J P and Trench, A, 2016. Using Scenariosto Investigate the Long-term Future of Copper Mining and Guide ExplorationTargeting Strategies, in Proceedingsof the International Mine Management Conference,
Brisbane, 22-24 August, pp 265-289 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy:Melbourne).
• Sykes, J P and Trench, A, 2017. The Impact of the Renewable Energy Transition on Battery and Strategic Metal Markets, AIG Battery and Strategic Metals Conference, Perth, 10 November (Australian Institute of
Geoscientists: Sydney).
• Sykes, J P, Trench, A, McCuaig, T C, Craske, T, Dwyer, J, Subramaniam,N, Sullivan, S.T.M and Turner, W, 2016. Transforming the future of minerals exploration, in Proceedingsof the AusIMM New Zealand Branch
Annual Conference, pp 407-418 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Wellington).
• Sykes, J P, Trench, A, McCuaig, T C, and Jessell, M, 2017a. Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of globalisation and sustainability in the long-term future of mining and exploration, in Proceedingsof the
Tenth International Mining Geology Conference, Hobart, 20-22 September, pp 239-255 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).
• Trench, A, Packey, D and Sykes, J P, 2014. Non-TechnicalRisks and Their Impact on the Mining Industry, in Mineral Resource and Ore Reserve Estimation: The AusIMM Guide to Good Practice (eds: J Baldwin, N Hanson,
J Cowan, I Glacken, S Masters, M Whitham, G Dunstan, C De-Vitry, C Morley, J Coombes and G Fahey), second edition, chapter 7, pp 605-618 (The AustralasianInstitute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).
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• Vann, J, Jackson, S, Bye, A, Coward, S, Moayer, S, Nicholas, G and Wolff, R, 2012. ScenariosThinking – A Powerful Tool for Strategic Planning and Evaluation of Mining Projects and Operations, in Proceedings of the
Project Evaluation Conference, Melbourne, 24-25 May, pp 5-14 (The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy: Melbourne).

REFERENCES [3]
19 Nov 2018
Slide 34 of 35
• Wack, P, 1985a. Scenarios:uncharteredwaters ahead – How Royal Dutch/Shell developed a planning technique that teaches managers to think about an uncertain future, Harvard Business Review, September-
October: 73-89.
• Wack, P, 1985b. Scenarios:shooting the rapids – How medium-term analysis illuminated the power of scenariosfor Shell management, Harvard Business Review, November-December:139-150.
• Zhang, L-F, 2002a. Thinking Styles and Cognitive Development, The Journal of Genetic Psychology, 163(2): 179-195.
• Zhang, L-F, 2002b. Thinking Styles and Modes of Thinking: Implications for Education and Research, The Journal of Psychology, 136(3): 245-261.
• Zhang, L-F and Huang, J, 2001. Thinking Styles and the Five-FactorModel of Personality, European Journal of Personality, 15: 465-476.

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