My PhD Journey Exploring Copper's Uncertain Future

My PhD Story
Or: How I Learned To Stop
Worrying And Love Mining
Or: The Future (s) Of
Mining And Exploration
John Sykes
1. Centre for Exploration Targeting (CET), School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia
2. Business School, The University of Western Australia
3. AustralianInstitute of Management (Western Australia)
4. MinEx Consulting,Australia
5. Greenfields Research, United Kingdom
18 June 2021
GEOHUG Sundowner
Image:Dr. Strangelove(A.V. Club)

This is presentation is about stories not data (yet)
Video:David Comberg;Images:Wikipedia
18 June 2021
My PhD Or: The Future (s) Of Mining And Exploration (GeoHug Online)
Slide 2 of 77

There are a few different types of stories
Images:Maya Eilam
18 June 2021
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The storyline of your favourite ‘geology disaster’
Images:Maya Eilam;IMDB
* Usually it is a
(leading) man
#MeToo
* Often there is a ‘literal’ flood –
and even an ark…
* The link between the ‘Man
in a Hole’ storyline and geo-
disasters is not irrelevant –
we’ll look at this later.
18 June 2021
Slide 4 of 77

My PhD Story is Another ‘Man In A Hole’ Story
Scene 5: The ‘Novel’
Scenarios
Scene 6: The ‘Star Wars
vs Star Trek’ Scenarios
Scene 7: The ‘Dickensian’
Scenarios
The Final Scene
Director’s Commentary
Images:Maya Eilam
The Origin Story
Scene 1: The Plan
Scene 2: Change &
Complexity
Scene 3: A New Plan
Scene 4: The ‘Game of
Thrones’ Scenarios
18 June 2021
Slide 5 of 77

The Origin Story
18 June 2021
Slide 6 of 77

Why scenarios?
I used to have to explain this, but then…
Images:The Economist
18 June 2021
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A Coming of Age Tale?
Images:Wikipedia;BBC; Britannica;The Guardian
Aged 17, High School (FE),
Leeds (UK)
Aged 20 & 21, University,
London
Aged 24, First Graduate Job, London
18 June 2021
Slide 8 of 77

Discovering Problems With Price Forecasts
In the short-run demand
determines commodity
prices, but over the long-run
it is supply (i.e. mines &
exploration) that determines
commodity prices.*
- Tilton & Guzman, 2016, Mineral
Economics & Policy
* This is why CRU employed geologists, such as myself, as
well as mining engineers, metallurgists, etc
Sources: CRU Group
Economists’ fault… (the forecast, not the GFC)
Geologists’ fault… (the forecast and the price?), i.e. me!
18 June 2021
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Discovering Problems With Copper Projects
Sources: CRU Group
18 June 2021
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Discovering Problems Elsewhere In Minerals
Humphreys (2010) points
out that not only were
commodity price bears
caught out by the impact
of Chinese
industrialisation on
commodity prices in 2005-
6, but that even the
commodity price bulls
underestimated the scale
of the impact on prices. He
also noted that many
mining companies also
did not seem ready for the
increase in demand, as
they struggled to bring on
new supply.
More of my
troublesome price
forecasts, this
time in tin..
More troublesome
mine projects that
I was trying to
analyse, this time
in rare earths..
Sources: Humphreys(2010), ITRI, GreenfieldsResearch
18 June 2021
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Scene 1: The Plan
(or: ignoring the wisdom of generals and boxers)
Quoteattributedto Mike Tyson.
18 June 2021
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Into Academia: And Back To Copper Projects
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’…
Mine production was falling behind demand… …but explorers were finding plenty of new reserves
…thus it must be a ‘development’ problem!
Source: Sykes & Trench (2014)
18 June 2021
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From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’… was probably wrong!
Not all resources can be developed economically… …and not all resources can be developed sustainably…
…actually we were ‘discovery constrained and thus had to find better resources!
“…investigate an alternative, less
capital-intensive design of the
Olympic Dam open-pit expansion…
align with the Company’s cost control
strategy in the current economic
environment…”
- BHP Billiton, 6th Dec 2012
“Anglo American has given
notice that it is withdrawing
from the Pebble copper
project in Alaska.”
- Anglo American, 16th Sept 2013
“Rio Tinto gifts stake in
Northern Dynasty Minerals to
Alaskan charities.”
- Rio Tinto, 7th Apr 2014
18 June 2021
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From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’… was probably wrong!
Explorers were finding low quality resources… …that were prone to socio-political problems…
…thus it was actually a ‘discovery’ problem!
Source: MinExConsulting,Frankset al., (2014)
18 June 2021
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A Discovery Solution!
We can find ‘better’ quality projects… …by looking in new places (or ‘search spaces’)
…by definition, the best discoveries are made first in any given area (as the have the strongest signature)
Source: Sykes (2014)
18 June 2021
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Suggesting A Simple Three-Stage Solution
All I needed to do was:
1. Calculate which parts of the
existing copper resource were
economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the
existing copper resource were
‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Use these criteria as exploration
targets for new discoveries.
DISCOVERED
ECONOMICbut
INACCESSIBLE
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLEbut
ECONOMIC
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE but
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
UNECONOMICbut
ACCESSIBLE
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOMIC
FEASIBILITY
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
and ECONOMIC
(Behind)
DISCOVERED but
INACCESSIBLE
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE
and
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
but ACCESSIBLE
ECONOMIC
18 June 2021
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Scene 2: Change & Complexity
(or: the Austen alliteration)
18 June 2021
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Mistake 1: I Forgot How Complex The Future Is
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share
of
Global
Cu
Mine
production
United Kingdom Chile USA Other
Decline of UK mining,
rise of Americas
Resurrection of
Chilean industry
…in 1898… Bingham Canyon… was something of a joke… only barren quartz rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody could
make money out of so little. …the world’s most famous mining man [Chief Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up his nose. It
was ridiculed by the most respected mining journal of the day. …The shovels started… in June 1906. (Lynch, 2002)
20th century coppermining
technology, innovation &
discovery package
Dynamite
Steam power
The corporation
Mechanisation
Major public
infrastructure
Flotation
Improved smelting &
refining
Airborne
geophysics
Porphyry
geological
model
Better work
practices
SXEW
Computation
Low cost drilling
Globalisation
Forward contracts
Free trade
New geographies
Regime change
18 June 2021
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Mistake 2: I Forgot How Different The Future Is
Source: Sykes et al., (2016)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and aluminium 1900-2014 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Al Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and nickel 1900-2013 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Ni Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
2006
2013
Growth in market size indices of copper
and uranium 1950-2013 (1950= 1)
Cu Index U Index
Once again analysing other commodity markets was providing validation, but also frustration!
18 June 2021
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Hence The Decision To Use Scenario Planning
Instead for Stage 3, how about:
3. Assess which of the
‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain
so over the long term
considering appropriate
technical, economic,
environmental and socio-
political uncertainty about
the future (i.e. using
scenario planning).
GEOLOGICALCERTAINTY
ECONOMIC
FEASIBILITY
“ACCESSIBLE
RESERVE”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVE”
DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED
18 June 2021
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Scene 3: A New Plan
(or: the lessons of Little Gidding)
18 June 2021
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A Man in Metaphorical Theoretical & Practical Hole
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were ‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
3. Assess which of the ‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Data difficult to source,* time-consuming
to analyse and already becoming
available from other researchers…
2. Data is non-existent, time-consuming to
gather, requires new (mathematically
complex) methods to analyse and already
becoming available from other
researchers…
3. This just sounds like a really BIG job!
Worst of all! I was still looking at current mine projects (i.e. the ideas of
the past) not the genuinely new ‘exploratory’ ideas required!
18 June 2021
Slide 23 of 77

Another New Plan
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were ‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
3. Assess which of the ‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Find a quick way to show that the existing
copper project pipeline is not ‘future
proof’
2. Try to come up with some new ideas for
exploration…
Fortunately scenario planning is suitable for testing strategic
‘adaptability’ and for new idea generation
?
18 June 2021
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Scene 4: The ‘Game of Thrones’
Scenarios
(or: its about the players not the stage)
18 June 2021
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…so I developed some scenarios
OPTIMISATION
Increased
Decreased
STARK LANNISTER
TARTH TARGARYEN
Increased
Decreased
OPPORTUNITY
18 June 2021
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…and tested the best copper mines (they failed)
Targaryen Lannister Stark Tarth
18 June 2021
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…and the best copper projects (even worse)
Targaryen Lannister Stark Tarth
18 June 2021
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Four types of minerals asset were identified, BUT
‘No worries’ assets:
good in any future
‘Big bet’ assets:
good in a limited
range of futures
‘Wait & see’ assets: may
work in a few different
futures – not clear yet
‘Bad’ assets: bad
in any future!
Avoid these!
Don’t exist!
(fantasy)
18 June 2021
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Adaption Via Portfolio Management
A few ‘big bets’ A ‘no worries’ strategy
A few ‘wait & see’ options
The application of ‘portfolio selection’ or diversification by the mining sector…
Sources: Markowitz(1952), Erdmannet al.,(2015), Sykes & Trench (2016)
18 June 2021
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A great piece of research, but not really…
Also won the Curtin Business School
Postgraduate Symposium Prize for the Best
Paper in the ‘Business’ Category (2016)
AusIMM ‘Best Paper’ Prize (2017)
‘…recommended for
Boards and investors
deciding in which mine
projects to invest …’
BUT
• Standard consultancy material (I
even used a McKinsey framework)
• Safe – it won’t get your fired
• Based on data and evidence –
past trends, historic data – it was
not forward-looking
• Logical but not ‘imaginative’
• It doesn’t actually solve the
problem!
18 June 2021
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We’ll Struggle To Adapt Via Portfolio Selection
A few ‘big bets’ A ‘no worries’ strategy?
What would be an
original ‘no worries’
strategy?
A few ‘wait & see’ options
The application of ‘portfolio selection’ or diversification by the mining sector…
Sources: Markowitz(1952), Erdmannet al.,(2015), Sykes & Trench (2016)
18 June 2021
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Focusing On The Explorer, Not The Discovery
Discovered projects are a ‘known’ and thus well-
analysed and optimised…
…if explorers are truly working in the unknown, then the
explorers are the only known entity upon which research
can be conducted…
The final research question became:
“Can explorers find significant, better quality mineral
deposits that are both economically viable and more in
line with contemporary and likely future demands on
the mining industry?”
Source: John et al., (2010); Image:Shutterstock
18 June 2021
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First I Needed To ‘Upframe’ The Research
“If a problem cannot be
solved, enlarge it.”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
Sources: Wack (1985), Ramirez & Wilkinson(2016)
18 June 2021
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Working on the fringes
“I do not know what I may appear to the world,
but to myself I seem to have been only like a boy
playing on the sea-shore, and diverting myself in
now and then finding a smoother pebble or a
prettier shell than ordinary, whilst the great
ocean of truth lay all undiscovered before me.”
- Issac Newton(1643-1727)
NB: Remember he was an alchemist, ‘amateur’ medical doctor, astronomer, banker, biblical scholar, devoutly
religious (unorthodox), inventor, mathematician, palm-reader, philosopher, physicist, politician, theologian, etc.
18 June 2021
Slide 35 of 77
Source: Wikiquote;Images:Shutterstock,Wikipedia

Why scenarios? – Multiple perspectives
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is
the ability to hold two opposed ideas in
mind at the same time and still retain
the ability to function.”
F. Scott Fitzgerald
18 June 2021
Slide 36 of 77

Why scenarios? – Multiple disciplines
Source: Mortonet al.,(2015) – also thanksto Peter Betts [Geohuglast week];Images:Shutterstock
~CET
Scenarios
Ideal
scenarios
work
18 June 2021
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How was it done? Each 3-day Workshop…
DEDUCTIVE
Structure> Story
INDUCTIVE
Story> Structure
ITERATE!
DAY 1 DAY 3
DAY 2
Source: Based on the Oxford ScenarioPlanningApproach (slightlymodified)
18 June 2021
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How was it done? The whole ‘programme’
Initial research &
planning
1st Scenarios (Sykes
& Trench)
2nd Scenarios (CET
PhDs ~10)
3rd Scenarios (Expert
Group 1 ~25)
4th Scenarios (Expert
Group 2 ~25)
Further research &
synthesis
Source: Based on the Oxford ScenarioPlanningApproach (slightlymodified)
No final
‘product’
scenarios
18 June 2021
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How was it done? Pen, paper, sticky notes…
Photos: Will Turner
18 June 2021
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Interim Q&A
18 June 2021
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The ‘Novel’ Scenarios
(the new metals search space)
18 June 2021
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Investigating The Transition Into The Future
Wonderland
1984
Left behind
High tech
Discworld
NOW
(An unknown
number of
economic
cycles to come)
Low tech
(Beyond which is
the unknown)
‘Economic paradigm’
‘Sustainability
paradigm’
‘Strategic paradigm’
‘Transition’
Sources:Sykes & Trench (2017); Images:Amazon
18 June 2021
Slide 43 of 77

WONDERLAND?
GREEN
ECONOMY
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
SILICON
VALLEY
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
ISIS
DISRUPTION
SUSTAINABILITY
PARADIGM VOLATILITY
CETA DEAL
INNOVATION
PARIS
AGREEMENT
Industry, facilitated by government, drives a collective, global energy transition via
collaboration and innovation…
GLOBALISATIO
N
TESLA
…but there is a dark side – remember ‘Alice in Wonderland’ is a dystopia
18 June 2021
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1984?
NEW
WORLD
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
BREXIT
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
ISIS
OLD
WORLD
MILITARY-
INDUSTRIAL
COMPLEX
TRUMP
STRATEGIC
PARADIGM
WAR
PROTECTIONISM
PUTIN
ISIS
Geopolitics and conflict forces a government-led energy transition in the fossil-fuel poor
parts of the world
…but it’s not all bad – miners and explorers would be part of the ‘protected elite’
18 June 2021
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Voluntary or forced change?
WONDERLAND 1984
Common in Eastern culture
(and Silicon Valley)
Common in Western culture
(and Hollywood)
vs Remember
this…
18 June 2021
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There are two types of political ‘accessibility’
18 June 2021
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The ‘Star Wars vs Star Trek’
Scenarios
(the socio-political search space)
18 June 2021
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Transforming The Future Inspired by H&S
“Trapped in
a cycle”
“Breaking the
cycle”
19th Century 1970s
Compliance Culture Excellence
Late 20th century
HEALTH
&
SAFETY
Mid-20th Century Now?
Compliance Culture Excellence
Future?
SOCIAL
LICENCE
Sources:Sykes et al., (2016); Images:Amazon,Wikipedia
18 June 2021
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But we need to think about technology…
Remember:
Drones are military technology used
for spying on people!
Big data is military technology used
to spy on people!
Remote ‘lairs’ are what the villains
have!
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the stuff
of dystopia…
#techlash #neoluddism
#deletefacebook #deletegoogle
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Attack of
the Drones
The Last Jedi
(or field geo)
The Search
for Spock
The Final
Frontier
18 June 2021
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…and the social implications of it…
Which seems the most
plausible skill set to recruit in
the future?
Compare it to the previous
slide…
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Data
science
Field
geology
Social and
geo- science
Social
and data
science
18 June 2021
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Yet, we’ve hardly begun to innovate!
Miners appear to be “sustainers”…
Bigger,
Bigger,
Bigger…
…and now automated!
…the oil industry seems a
bit more disruptive?
Based on: C.M. Christensen,1997, The Innovator’sDilemma;
Images:miniature-construction-world.co.uk;The Telegraph; Shutterstock;mining-technology.com;stanford.edu;lancs.ac.uk
18 June 2021
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Past visions of the future of mining are the same
…by 2135… there will hardly be any miners underground. Minerals will be won
either by robotized machinery or by in situ extraction of the valuable
ingredients. …biotechnology will be increasingly employed in situ to convert
metals into a readily soluble form. Mineral processing would then become
largely a matter of handling solutions, thus obviating the need for crushing and
grinding.”
- Arvi Parbo, former BHP Chairman, in S.D. Strauss, 1986, Trouble in the Third Kingdom, p210
The radically different view of the future of mining has been the same for a long time. Why?
18 June 2021
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Mining is behind the curve…
Source: HBR
18 June 2021
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The current mining industry innovation package
Incremental
e.g. mining
Proximal e.g.
petroleum
Radical e.g.
rest of world
The ‘fringe’!
Drones
Remote mining
Big data
Driverless
trucks
18 June 2021
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Moving towards the fringe & radical innovation
Four key areas of science and
technology (Turney, 2010):
Biotechnology & genetics
Computer science, IT & AI
Nanotechnology
Brain science (neuro, psych,
& AI)
18 June 2021
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Moving towards the fringe & radical innovation
18 June 2021
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The ‘Dickensian’ Scenarios
(the geopolitical search space)
18 June 2021
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The Dickensian scenarios focused on politics
Progressive
Conservative
Globalist
Protectionist The next few
decades?
Ebenezer Scrooge
the protectionist capitalist
e.g. Donald Trump
Mr. Fezziwig
the globalising philanthropist
e.g. Justin Trudeau
Jacob Marley
the globalising capitalist
e.g. Xi Jinping?
Bob Cratchit
the protectionist worker
e.g. Jeremy Corbyn
Tiny Tim(s)
the vulnerable of society
i.e. most social movements
18 June 2021
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A brief history lesson: the rise of free trade
Socialist
Capitalist
UK Whigs
‘Corn Law’ Tories
Free Trading
Protectionist / Mercantilist
Lack of official party representation for working
classes – franchise still limited to middle and
upper classes
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Early 19th century
18 June 2021
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A brief history lesson: the rise of free trade
Liberal
Conservative
‘Gladstone’
Liberals
‘Peel’ & ‘Disraeli’
Conservatives
Free Trading
Protectionist / Mercantilist
Lack of official party representation for localist
and protectionist values – franchise still not fully
expanded (esp. women) – liberals take ‘top-down’
approach to social progress (e.g. Gladstone) – a
similar attitude is seen with ‘Tory Paternalism’
(Disraeli)
‘Left wing’ ‘Right wing’
Late 19th century
After ‘winning’ the battle
on free trade, the Whig
agenda moves from
economic liberalism to
social liberalism
Conservatives adopt ‘liberal
economics’ and become a free-
trading / colonialist party, but
with conservative values –
Tamworth Manifesto
18 June 2021
Slide 61 of 77

A brief history lesson: the rise of labour
Socialist
Capitalist
AUS ‘Labor’
UK ‘Labour’
US ‘Democrats’
Free Trading
Protectionist
Rise of the labour movement
including rights for workers and
protection of jobs from free-trade
and technological advance
(luditism)
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Early 20th century
‘Liberalism’ effectively destroyed by the
rise of the labour movement following full
male franchise, which gives workers a
direct say in democracy – their attitude is
more protectionist than the liberals
AUS ‘Liberals’
UK ‘Conservatives’
US ‘Republicans’
Parties now divide neatly
between left (workers,
protectionist) and right
(capitalist, free trading)
All four points of the
spectrum are covered
by the two poles of
parties
18 June 2021
Slide 62 of 77

A brief history lesson: the rise of progressivism
Progressive
Conservative
UK ‘Labour’
Free Trading
Protectionist
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Late 20th century
Rise of social progress movements to provide rights to minority groups either
officially or unofficially locked out or disadvantaged by the prevailing system.
Includes indigenous people and social movements such as gay rights and
feminism – the latter having a more international flavour though as they seek
to transform the lives of similar minorities across the globe.
AUS ‘Liberals’
Parties still divide fairly neatly between left and right,
however left wing parties are starting to drift away from
protectionism and localism, as the focus moves to using
capital to fund socially progressive activities and
globalisation to promote a socially progressive agenda
(e.g. cosmopolitanism)
AUS ‘Labor’
US ‘Democrats’
‘Green’ parties in
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
‘Indigenous’ movements
e.g. Mabo in AUS, First
Nations in CAN
‘Social’ movements
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
18 June 2021
Slide 63 of 77

A brief history lesson: the rise of globalisation
Progressive
Conservative
UK Blairite
‘New Labour’
Globalist
Localist
Early 21st century
Left-right divide is now
largely defined by
progressive or
conservative social values
(i.e. the culture wars), with
most major parties
following a globalist,
capitalist agenda. The
right sees this as an
opportunity to maximise
economic development
and open up free trade,
whilst the left sees this as
an opportunity to
internationalise
progressive values and
use the proceeds of
capitalism to fund socially
progressive activities
AUS ‘Liberals’
Lack of official party
representation of
localist /
protectionist values
AUS ‘Labor’
US Clinton ‘3rd
Way Democrats’
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
‘Indigenous’ movements
e.g. Native Title in AUS,
First Nations in CAN
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
Only two points
of the spectrum
are covered by
the parties
Most official
parties are broadly
global capitalist
18 June 2021
Slide 64 of 77

A brief history lesson: the return of protectionism
Progressive
Conservative
UK Blairite ‘New
Labour’ (now ‘old’)
Globalist
Protectionist
The 2010s
AUS Abbott
‘Liberals’
US Bush/GOP
‘Republicans’
Rise of protectionist
parties with both
progressive and
conservative social values,
either as rebel parts of
existing parties or as new
parties
AUS ‘Labor’
Clinton /
Obama
‘Democrats’
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
‘Indigenous’
movements e.g.
Native Title in AUS,
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
All four points of the spectrum are
covered by often very divided
political parties
Most ‘official’
parties are broadly
global capitalist
UK ‘Old Labour –
Corbynist (now
‘renewed’)
Sanders
Democrats
UK Cameron
‘Conservatives’
AUS Turnbull
‘Liberals’
UKIP Trump
‘Republicans’
Tea Party
‘Republicans’
18 June 2021
Slide 65 of 77

China vs USA
A brief history lesson: now identity politics
Progressive
Conservative
UK Blairite ‘New
Labour’
Universalist
Factionalist
The 2020s
AUS Abbott ‘Liberals’
US Bush/GOP
‘Republicans’
Dominance of ‘identity
politics’ on the left and
right aka the ‘Culture
Wars’ with both
progressive and
conservative social values
– all as ‘factions’, again as
either rebel parts of
existing parties or as new
parties – overall there are
fewer ‘universalist’
political parties,
movements, or
influencers.
AUS ‘Labor’
Clinton /
Obama ‘New
Democrats’
Aus, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
‘Indigenous’
movements e.g.
Native Title in AUS,
2000s ‘Social’
movements e.g. gay
rights, feminism, etc.
Fewer ‘official’ parties are
broadly global capitalist
UK ‘Old Labour’ &
Corbynism
Sanders
Democrats
UK Cameron
‘Conservatives’
AUS Turnbull
‘Liberals’
UKIP /
Brexit
Trump
‘Republicans’
Tea Party
‘Republicans’
‘Left’ identity
politics – feminism
versus trans-rights
‘Green’ elites (Al
Gore, Bill Gates,
IPCC, etc.,)
AUS Morrison
‘Liberals’
Scottish
Independence
UK Johnson
‘Conservatives’
‘WWCM’
BLM
‘Macron’ (France) &
‘Trudeau’ (Canada)
Extinction
Rebellion
German ‘Greens’
Joe Biden
ESG
Digital
Unionism
18 June 2021
Slide 66 of 77

Politics is like a playground…
Swings
The normal ‘back and forth’ of democratic
politics;
In a long-term industry to not to react to
every ‘swing’ as can be wasteful and
isolating;
The mining industry generally over-reacts
to the short-term.
Roundabouts
• Longer term structural shifts
that re-shape all sides of
politics;
• These are important to adapt to
as they will only reverse over
the long-term;
• The mining industry
generally misses these shifts.
Climbing frames
• Pre-determined elements of the
future that are yet to play out;
• You cannot avoid tackling these
issues, even if you want to;
• Often are recognised by the
industry, but nonetheless are
difficult to act upon.
Sources: Wack, 1985; Sykes et al., 2017
18 June 2021
Slide 67 of 77

…you have to climb the climbing frame!
Is the shift against ‘sustainable development’ a swing,
roundabout, or climbing frame?
A climbing frame: difficult to envision a developed society paying less
attention to environmental and social conditions e.g. rise of environmentalism
in Chinese middle class.
Is the shift against ‘globalisation’ a swing, roundabout, or
climbing frame?
A roundabout (maybe): a key aspect of ‘globalisation’ is ‘glocalism’ i.e. the
strengthening of local identity and rights as everything is placed in global
context – the franchise ‘McDonaldisation’ of the world.
Image: Local style McDonald’s fish burger in
Singapore
Image: Environmental protests in China
Images: South China Morning Post, Wikipedia; Sources: Ritzer, 1993; Steger, 2013; The Economist, 2016; Sykes et al., 2017
18 June 2021
Slide 68 of 77

How are we doing, so far?
BHP Billiton
• “Think Big”
campaign;
• Name change
(dropping
‘Billiton’) about
restoring
domestic pride;
• Rating: B
• Needs to be
backed up by
‘local’ efforts.
Sandfire / Tintina
• Launched “Make
Montana Great Again”
campaign for Black
Butte project shortly
after Trump victory;
• Rating: C
• Focus on the trend
(roundabout), not the
personality (swing).
WA Royalties
• Strong reaction by iron
ore and gold industry to
tax hikes;
• Probably inevitable (WA
bust) – should have
mitigated this earlier;
• Rating: D
• The industry is making
long- and short-term
enemies on many sides.
Sources: BHP, 2017; Fitzgerald, 2017; Radisich et al., 2017a, 2017b; Sykes et al., 2017; Trench & Sykes, 2017; Trench et al., 2017
Juuken Gorge
• Poor process in the first
place – lack of local
interaction;
• Additional PR, denial,
responsibility issues
show hierarchy vs
locality problems;
• Rating: F
• Again, the industry is
making long- and short-
term enemies on many
sides.
18 June 2021
Slide 69 of 77

A localist ‘bottom-up’ effort is required
We should learn our lessons from the
frontline workers of Rio Tinto and Virgin
Australia at Perth Airport!*
Social licence is ‘local’ – it requires a
bottom up effort, not a top-down one;
Hence, why this is a presentation for
explorers, not about ‘exploration geology’;
You and your exploration team will be
leading us into the future…
* See appendix for explanation of the story (source: Sykes & Trench, 2017d); Images: Virgin Australia; Rio Tinto
18 June 2021
Slide 70 of 77

Q&A
18 June 2021
Slide 71 of 77

Fin
18 June 2021
Slide 72 of 77

Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to acknowledge the Noongar people, who remain the spiritual and cultural custodians of the land, upon which The University of Western
Australia is situated, and pay my respect to Elders both past and present.
Thanks also go to Jess Keast and Geohug for hosting this webinar.
I would like to acknowledgethe support of my PhD supervision team: Allan Trench(CET, UWA), Mark Jessell (CET,UWA), Campbell McCuaig (BHP), and Nicolas Thebaud (CET,
UWA); as well as the financial support of a Centre for Exploration Targeting ‘Ad hoc’ scholarship and an Australian Government ResearchTraining ProgramScholarship.
I would also like to thank the participants in the three CET “Future of Minerals Exploration” Scenarios Workshops: Jonathan Bell (CET, Curtin), Leila Ben Mcharek (Muslim Studies, UWA), Rob
Bills (Emmerson Resources), Aida Carneiro (Mining Engineering, UWA), Ivy Chen (CSA Global), Aaron Colleran (Evolution Mining), Tim Craske (Geowisdom), Liz Dallimore (KPMG), Deon
deBruin (Diamond Indicator Minerals), Edoaldo Di Dio (Calibre Projects), Joe Dwyer (HiSeis), Mayara Fraeda (CET-UWA), Nick Franey (NFJ Consulting), Simon Gatehouse (BHP), Jeremie
Giraud (CET, UWA), Marcelo Godefroy Rodriguez (CET, UWA), Chris Gonzalez (CET, UWA), Isabel Granado (Information Systems, Curtin), Matt Greentree (Ausgold), David Groves (CET, UWA),
Mike Haederle (Rio Tinto), Mike Hannington (Metalicity), Nick Hayward (Teck), Amanda Hellberg (Law, UWA), Paul Hodkiewicz (Anglo American), Amy Imbergamo (Environmental Science,
UWA), Constanza Jara (CET, UWA), Caroline Johnson (CSIRO), Heta Lampinen (CET, UWA), Helen Langley (Law, UWA), John Libby (Digirock), Martin Lynch (Author of “Mining in World History”),
Stuart Masters (CS-2 Consulting), Michael Mead (Gold Fields), Adele Millard (Anthropology, UWA), Joanne Moo (Environmental Science, UWA), Suzanne Murray (Billabong Gold), Sandra
Occhipinti (CET, UWA), Ahmad Saleem (CET, UWA), Ian Satchwell (PerthUSAsia Centre), Robert Sills (Sills Strategic Materials), John Southalan (Law, UWA), David Stevenson (CET, UWA),
Narendran Subramaniam (Transmin), Siobhan Sullivan (Plant Biology, UWA), Daniel Sully (Teck), Janet Sutherland (Business, Curtin), Marcus Tomkinson (MMG), Marnie Tonkin
(Anthropology, UWA), Jan Tunjic (CET, UWA), Will Turner (Millenium Minerals), Stanislav Ulrich (AngloGold Ashanti), Jessica Volich (BHP), Wenchao Wan (Chemical Engineering, UWA), Peter
Williams (HiSeis), Marcus Willson (CSA Global) and Afira Zulkifli Tahmali (Environmental Science, UWA).
I wouldalso like to thank Steve Beresford (IndependenceGroup), Jon Hronsky (Western Mining Services), RobbieRowe (NextGen Geological),RichardSchodde(MinEx Consulting),John Vann (Anglo American) and
the members of #explorationtalk for the continuedsupport, guidance,and championingof this research.
This work has also benefittedfrom the contributionsof manyotherpeople who have co-authoredpapers, provided input,or contributedin some otherway, whetherthey knewit or not.These include David Abraham (TREM, IAGS), Saleem Ali
(Universityof Delaware),Tim Andrews(Western Power),Lucy Ash (IndependentGeologist),MilesAshton (BaronPropertyGroup),Alex Atkins (Alex Atkins Associates),RogerBade (WhitmanHoward),AnthonyBarich (Aspermont),Laurent
Barrere(GryzllyResources),GeoffBatt(MBA, UWA), Kristie Batten(MiningNews.net),Anselm Boehl (BHP),Carla Boehl(WASM, Curtin),Doug Brewster(IndependentExplorationGeologist),ZenoushkaBynevelt(BHP), Sarah Connolly(Gold
Fields),Jess Currell (EY), Sam Davies(CET, UWA), Aaron Dixon (EY),Nick Gardiner(CET, Curtin),Chris Gemell(Wood Mackenzie),Mike Gershon(GershonLearning),Pietro Guj (CET, Curtin),Nancy Hanna(CSIRO), Jess Harman(BHP), Matt
Horgan(Alcoa),Simon Jowitt(Universityof Nevada,Las Vegas),MatthewKanakis(KPMG), PeterKettle (ITRI), Cho Khong (Shell),Cui Lin (ITRI), Paul Miller(Vedanta),GavinMudd (RMIT University),Tom Mulqueen(ITRI), Janusz Olbromski
(Brickworks),Ian Radisich (South32),Rafael Ramirez (Universityof Oxford), LaurenceRobb (Universityof Oxford),Paul Robinson (CRU), CynthiaSelin (ArizonaState University),Bindi Shah (MBA, UWA), NatalieStaffurth(Terravision
Exploration),Mark Tyrer (ImperialCollege),Kees van der Heijden(Universityof Oxford),Jess Volich(BHP), AngelaWilkinson(World EnergyCouncil),and Josh Wright(RowtonConsolidated).
18 June 2021
Slide 73 of 77

Key References
• Sykes, J.P., 2014, Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level (The Hollywood Edition), Centre for Exploration Targeting Members’ Day, December,Perth (WA).
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014, Chapter 14: Finding the copper mine of the 21st century: Conceptual exploration targeting for hypothetical copper reserves, in Special Publication
Number 18: Building exploration capability for the 21st century, (eds., K.D. Kelley & H.C. Golden), Society of Economic Geologists: Littleton (CO), 273-300.
• Sykes, J.P., Wright, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125, 1, 3-20.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Using Scenarios to Investigate the Long-term Future of Copper Mining and Guide Exploration Targeting Strategies, International Mine Management
Conference, Brisbane (QLD), 22-24 August.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., Craske, T., Dwyer, J., Subramaniam, N., Sullivan, S.T.M., & Turner, W., 2016, Transforming the Future of Minerals Exploration, AusIMM New
Zealand Branch Conference, Wellington, 4-6 September,407-418.
• Sykes, J.P., 2017, The Energy Transition: A mining and exploration industry perspective, World Renewable Energy Congress, Perth (WA), 6 February.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2017, Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of globalisation and sustainability in the long-term future of mining and
exploration, Tenth International Mining Geology Conference, Hobart (TAS), 20-22 September, 239-256.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., & McCuaig, T.C., 2017, The Future(s) of Minerals Exploration, TARGET Conference, Perth (WA), 19-21 April.
• Sykes, J.P., 2017, Scenarios exploring the role of mining in the renewable energy transition and climate change mitigation, Oxford Futures Forum, Oxford (UK), 2 June.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., Jessell, M., & Craske, T., 2018, Strategic Thinking About Long-Term ‘Above Ground’ Orebody Complexity Using Scenarios, AusIMM Complex
Orebodies Conference, Brisbane (QLD), 19-20 November.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2018, A Mining and Exploration Industry Perspective on the Energy Transition, GSA Earth Sciences Student Symposium, Perth (WA),
29 November.
• Sykes, J.P., 2019, My PhD Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios To Explore The Future Of The Minerals Industry, AIG MEGWA Technical Talk, Perth
(WA), 20 March.
• Sykes, J.P., 2020, My PhD Story Or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or: Using Scenarios To Explore The Future Of The Mining, CET Recent Advances in Economic
Geology Symposium, Perth (WA), 20 February.
18 June 2021
Slide 74 of 77

Available to download:
• Sykes, 2014 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308779235_Influencing_exploration_choices_in_copper_at_a_strategic_level_The_Hollywood_Edition
• Sykes & Trench,2014 (Paper): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299535510_Finding_the_Copper_Mine_of_the_21_st_Century_Conceptual_Exploration_Targeting_for_Hypothetical_Copper_Reserves
• Sykes & Trench,2014 (Presentation): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308778590_Finding_the_Copper_Mine_of_the_21st_Century_Conceptual_Exploration_for_Hypothetical_Copper_Reserves
• Sykes, Wright& Trench,2016 (Paper): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290855758_Discovery_supply_and_demand_From_Metals_of_Antiquity_to_critical_metals
• Sykes & Trench,2016 (Paper): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310753489_Using_Scenarios_to_Investigate_the_Long-term_Future_of_Copper_Mining_and_Guide_Exploration_Targeting_Strategies
• Sykes & Trench,2016 (Presentation): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/310753727_Using_Scenarios_to_Investigate_the_Long-Term_Future_of_Copper_Mining_and_Guide_Exploration_Targeting_Strategies
• Sykes, Trench,McCuaig,Craske,Dwyer,Subramaniam,Sullivan,& Turner,2016 (Paper): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311935112_Transforming_the_future_of_minerals_exploration
• Sykes, Trench,McCuaig,Craske,Dwyer,Subramaniam,Sullivan,& Turner,2016 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311935241_Transforming_the_future_of_minerals_exploration
• Sykes, 2017 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/319102227_The_Energy_Transition_A_mining_and_exploration_industry_perspective#fullTextFileContent
• Sykes, 2017 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321824092_Scenarios_exploring_the_role_of_mining_in_the_renewable_energy_transition_and_climate_change_mitigation
• Sykes, Trench,McCuaig & Jessell,2017 (Paper): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321937197_Charles_Dickens_on_the_potentially_changing_role_of_globalisation_and_sustainability_in_the_long-
term_future_of_mining_and_exploration
• Sykes, Trench,McCuaig & Jessell,2017 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321937431_Charles_Dickens_on_the_potentially_changing_role_of_globalisation_and_sustainability_in_the_long-
term_future_of_mining_and_exploration
• Sykes, Trench & McCuaig,2017 (ExtendedAbstract): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321718645_The_futures_of_minerals_exploration
• Sykes, Trench & McCuaig,2017 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321718491_The_futures_of_minerals_exploration
• Sykes, Trench,McCuaig,Jessell & Craske,2018 (ExtendedAbstract): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352475874_Strategic_thinking_about_long-
term_'above_ground'_orebody_complexity_using_scenarios_Abstract
• Sykes, Trench,McCuaig,Jessell & Craske,2018 (Presentation): https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352212244_Strategic_Thinking_About_Long-
Term_'Above_Ground'_Orebody_Complexity_Using_Scenarios_Presentation
• Sykes, Trench,McCuaig & Jessell,2018 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352212160_A_Mining_and_Exploration_Industry_Perspective_on_the_Energy_Transition_Presentation
• Sykes, 2019 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352281981_My_PhD_Story_Or_How_I_Learned_To_Stop_Worrying_And_Love_Mining_Or_Using_Scenarios_To_Explore_The_Future_Of_Mining
• Sykes, 2020 (Presentation):https://www.researchgate.net/publication/352281981_My_PhD_Story_Or_How_I_Learned_To_Stop_Worrying_And_Love_Mining_Or_Using_Scenarios_To_Explore_The_Future_Of_Mining
18 June 2021
Slide 75 of 77

Other References
• Erdmann, D., Sichel, B., & Yeung, L., 2015, Overcoming Obstacles to Effective Scenario Planning, McKinsey Quarterly, June, 1-6.
• Franks, D.M., Davis, R., Bebbington, A.J., Ali, S.H., Kemp, D., & Scurrah, M., 2014, Conflict Translates Environmental and Social Risk into Business
Costs, PNAS, 111, 21, 7576-7581.
• Fukuyama, F., 1992, The End of History and the Last Man, Penguin Books: London (UK).
• Humphreys, D., 2010, The Great Metals Boom: A Retrospective, Resources Policy, 35, 1-13.
• Markowitz, H., 1952, Portfolio Selection, The Journal of Finance, 7, 1, 77-91.
• Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A., 2016, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press: Oxford (UK).
• Rigby, D., & Bilodeau, B., 2007, A Growing Focus on Preparedness, Harvard Business Review, 85, 7/8, 21-22.
• Rowe, R., 2017, Unlocking Australia’s Hidden Potential: An industry roadmap, AIMRA International & UNCOVER Australia, Melbourne (VIC), 1
September, 152p.
• Silver, N., 2012, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Penguin Books: London (UK).
• Taleb, N.N., 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Allen Lane: London (UK).
• Tetlock, P.E., 2005, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press: Princeton (NJ).
• Tetlock, P.E., & Gardner, D., 2015, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, Random House Books: London (UK).
• Tilton, J.E., & Guzman, J.I., 2016, Mineral Economics and Policy, Routledge: Abingdon (UK).
• Wack, P., 1985, Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review, 63, 6, 139-150.
18 June 2021
Slide 76 of 77

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