Using scenarios to explore the future of mining

The Role of Strategic Consulting in the Resources Industries of Australia and Indonesia
My PhD Story
Or: How I Learned To Stop
Worrying And Love Mining
Or: Using Scenarios To
Explore The Future Of Mining
John Sykes
1. Centre for Exploration Targeting (CET), School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia
2. Business School, The University of Western Australia
3. MinEx Consulting,Australia
4. Greenfields Research, United Kingdom
20 February 2020
CET Recent Advances in Economic Geology Symposium
Image:Dr. Strangelove(A.V. Club)

This is presentation is about stories not data (yet)
20 February 2020
My PhD: Or Using Scenarios to Explore the Future of Mining (CET Econ. Geol. Symposium)
Slide 2 of 74
Video: David Comberg;Images:Wikipedia

There are a few different types of stories
20 February 2020
Slide 3 of 74
Images:Maya Eilam

My PhD Story is Another ‘Man In A Hole’* Story
20 February 2020
Scene 5: The ‘Novel’
Scenarios
Scene 6: The ‘Star Wars
vs Star Trek’ Scenarios
Scene 7: The ‘Dickensian’
Scenarios
The Final Scene
Director’s Commentary
Images:Maya Eilam; * It usuallyis men , sorry… #metoo
The Origin Story
Scene 1: The Plan
Scene 2: Change &
Complexity
Scene 3: A New Plan
Scene 4: The
‘Medieval’ Scenarios
Slide 4 of 74

The Origin Story
20 February 2020
Slide 5 of 74

Discovering Problems With Price Forecasts
In the short-run demand
determines commodity
prices, but over the long-run
it is supply (i.e. mines &
exploration) that determines
commodity prices.*
- Tilton & Guzman, 2016, Mineral
Economics & Policy
20 February 2020
* This is why CRU employed geologists, such as myself, as
well as mining engineers, metallurgists, etc
Sources: CRU Group
Economists’ fault… (the forecast, not the GFC)
Geologists’ fault… (the forecast and the price?), i.e. me!
Slide 6 of 74

Discovering Problems With Copper Projects
20 February 2020
Sources: CRU Group
Slide 7 of 74

Discovering Problems Elsewhere In Minerals
Humphreys (2010) points
out that not only were
commodity price bears
caught out by the impact
of Chinese
industrialisation on
commodity prices in 2005-
6, but that even the
commodity price bulls
underestimated the scale
of the impact on prices. He
also noted that many
mining companies also
did not seem ready for the
increase in demand, as
they struggled to bring on
new supply.
20 February 2020
More of my
troublesome price
forecasts, this
time in tin..
More troublesome
mine projects that
I was trying to
analyse, this time
in rare earths..
Sources: Humphreys(2010), ITRI, GreenfieldsResearch
Slide 8 of 74

Scene 1: The Plan
20 February 2020
Slide 9 of 74

Into Academia: And Back To Copper Projects
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’…
20 February 2020
Mine production was falling behind demand… …but explorers were finding plenty of new reserves
…thus it must be a ‘development’ problem!
Source:Sykes & Trench (2014)
Slide 10 of 74

From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’… was probably wrong!
20 February 2020
Not all resources can be developed economically… …and not all resources can be developed sustainably…
…actually we were ‘discovery constrained and thus had to find better resources!
“…investigate an alternative, less
capital-intensive design of the
Olympic Dam open-pit expansion…
align with the Company’s cost control
strategy in the current economic
environment…”
- BHP Billiton, 6th Dec 2012
“Anglo American has given
notice that it is withdrawing
from the Pebble copper
project in Alaska.”
- Anglo American, 16th Sept 2013
“Rio Tinto gifts stake in
Northern Dynasty Minerals to
Alaskan charities.”
- Rio Tinto, 7th Apr 2014
Slide 11 of 74

From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’… was probably wrong!
20 February 2020
Explorers were finding low quality resources… …that were prone to socio-political problems…
…thus it was actually a ‘discovery’ problem!
Source:MinExConsulting,Frankset al., (2014)
Slide 12 of 74

A Discovery Solution!
20 February 2020
We can find ‘better’ quality projects… …by looking in new places (or ‘search spaces’)
…by definition, the best discoveries are made first in any given area (as the have the strongest signature)
Source:Sykes (2014)
Slide 13 of 74

Suggesting A Simple Three-Stage Solution
All I needed to do was:
1. Calculate which parts of the
existing copper resource were
economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the
existing copper resource were
‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Use these criteria as exploration
targets for new discoveries.
20 February 2020
DISCOVERED
ECONOMICbut
INACCESSIBLE
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLEbut
ECONOMIC
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE but
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
UNECONOMIC but
ACCESSIBLE
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOMIC
FEASIBILITY
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
and ECONOMIC
(Behind)
DISCOVERED but
INACCESSIBLE
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE
and
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
but ACCESSIBLE
ECONOMIC
Source:Sykes (2014)
Slide 14 of 74

Scene 2: Change & Complexity
20 February 2020
Slide 15 of 74

Mistake 1: I Forgot How Complex The Future Is
20 February 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Share
of
Global
Cu
Mine
production
United Kingdom Chile USA Other
Decline of UK mining,
rise of Americas
Resurrection of
Chilean industry
…in 1898… Bingham Canyon… was something of a joke… only barren quartz rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody could
make money out of so little. …the world’s most famous mining man [Chief Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up his nose. It
was ridiculed by the most respected mining journal of the day. …The shovels started… in June 1906. (Lynch, 2002)
Source:Sykes (2014)
20th century coppermining
technology, innovation &
discovery package
Dynamite
Steam power
The corporation
Mechanisation
Major public
infrastructure
Flotation
Improved smelting &
refining
Airborne
geophysics
Porphyry
geological
model
Better work
practices
SXEW
Computation
Low cost drilling
Globalisation
Forward contracts
Free trade
New geographies
Regime change
Slide 16 of 74

Mistake 2: I Forgot How Different The Future Is
20 February 2020
Source:Sykes et al., (2016)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and aluminium 1900-2014 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Al Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and nickel 1900-2013 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Ni Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
2006
2013
Growth in market size indices of copper
and uranium 1950-2013 (1950= 1)
Cu Index U Index
Once again analysing other commodity markets was providing validation, but also frustration!
Slide 17 of 74

Hence The Decision To Use Scenario Planning
Instead for Stage 3, how about:
3. Assess which of the
‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain
so over the long term
considering appropriate
technical, economic,
environmental and socio-
political uncertainty about
the future (i.e. using
scenario planning).
20 February 2020
GEOLOGICALCERTAINTY
ECONOMIC
FEASIBILITY
“ACCESSIBLE
RESERVE”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVE”
DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED
Source:Sykes (2014)
Slide 18 of 74

Scene 3: A New Plan
20 February 2020
Slide 19 of 74

A Man in Metaphorical Theoretical & Practical Hole
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were ‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
3. Assess which of the ‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Data difficult to source,* time-consuming
to analyse and already becoming
available from other researchers…
2. Data is non-existent, time-consuming to
gather, requires new (mathematically
complex) methods to analyse and already
becoming available from other
researchers…
3. This just sounds like a really BIG job!
20 February 2020
Worst of all! I was still looking at current mine projects (i.e. the ideas of
the past) not the genuinely new ‘exploratory’ ideas required!
Slide 20 of 74

Another New Plan
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were ‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
3. Assess which of the ‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Find a quick way to show that the existing
copper project pipeline is not ‘future
proof’
2. Try to come up with some new ideas for
exploration…
20 February 2020
Fortunately scenario planning is suitable for testing strategic
‘adaptability’ and for new idea generation
?
Slide 21 of 74

Scene 4: The ‘Medieval’ Scenarios
(or its about the actors not the stage)
20 February 2020
Slide 22 of 74

…so I developed some scenarios
20 February 2020
OPTIMISATION
Increased
Decreased
CRUSADES (or Stark) COUNTING HOUSE (or Lannister)
PEASAENT’S REVOLT (or Tarth) UNDER SEIGE (or Targaryen)
Increased
Decreased
Slide 23 of 74
OPPORTUNITY

…and tested the best copper mines (they failed)
20 February 2020
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…and the best copper projects (even worse)
20 February 2020
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Four types of minerals asset were identified, BUT
20 February 2020
‘No worries’ assets:
good in any future
‘Big bet’ (scratchies)
assets: good in a limited
range of futures
‘Wait & see’ assets (she’ll
be right): may work in a
few different futures –
not clear yet
‘Bad’ assets
(yeah-nah): bad in
any future!
Avoid these!
Don’t exist!
(fantasy)
Slide 26 of 74

We’ll Struggle To Adapt Via Portfolio Selection
20 February 2020
A few ‘big bets’ A ‘no worries’ strategy?
What would be an
original ‘no worries’
strategy?
A few ‘wait & see’ options
The application of ‘portfolio selection’ or diversification by the mining sector…
Sources:Markowitz(1952), Erdmannet al.,(2015), Sykes & Trench (2016)
Slide 27 of 74

Focusing On The Explorer, Not The Discovery
Discovered projects are a ‘known’ and thus well-
analysed and optimised…
…if explorers are truly working in the unknown, then the
explorers are the only known entity upon which research
can be conducted…
The final research question became:
“Can explorers find significant, better quality mineral
deposits that are both economically viable and more in
line with contemporary and likely future demands on
the mining industry?”
20 February 2020
Source:John et al., (2010); Image:Shutterstock
Slide 28 of 74

First I Needed To ‘Upframe’ The Research
“If a problem cannot be
solved, enlarge it.”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
20 February 2020
Sources: Wack (1985), Ramirez & Wilkinson(2016)
Slide 29 of 74

The ‘Novel’ Scenarios
(the new metals search space)
20 February 2020
Slide 30 of 74

Investigating The Transition Into The Future
20 February 2020
Wonderland
1984
Left behind
High tech
Discworld
NOW
(An unknown
number of
economic
cycles to come)
Low tech
(Beyond which is
the unknown)
‘Economic paradigm’
‘Sustainability
paradigm’
‘Strategic paradigm’
‘Transition’
Sources:Sykes & Trench (2017); Images:Amazon
Slide 31 of 74

WONDERLAND?
20 February 2020
GREEN
ECONOMY
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
SILICON
VALLEY
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
ISIS
DISRUPTION
SUSTAINABILITY
PARADIGM VOLATILITY
CETA DEAL
INNOVATION
PARIS
AGREEMENT
Industry, facilitated by government, drives a collective, global energy transition via
collaboration and innovation…
GLOBALISATION TESLA
Slide 32 of 74
…but there is a dark side – remember ‘Alice in Wonderland’ is a dystopia

1984?
20 February 2020
NEW
WORLD
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
BREXIT
PROTECTIONISM
STRATEGIC
RESOURCES
ISIS
OLD
WORLD
MILITARY-
INDUSTRIAL
COMPLEX
TRUMP
STRATEGIC
PARADIGM
WAR
PROTECTIONISM
PUTIN
ISIS
Geopolitics and conflict forces a government-led energy transition in the fossil-fuel poor
parts of the world
Slide 33 of 74
…but it’s not all bad – miners and explorers would be part of the ‘protected elite’

There are two types of political ‘accessibility’
20 February 2020
Slide 34 of 74

The ‘Star Wars vs Star Trek’
Scenarios
(the socio-political search space)
20 February 2020
Slide 35 of 74

Transforming The Future Inspired by H&S
20 February 2020
“Trapped in
a cycle”
“Breaking the
cycle”
19th Century 1970s
Compliance Culture Excellence
Late 20th century
HEALTH
&
SAFETY
Mid-20th Century Now?
Compliance Culture Excellence
Future?
SOCIAL
LICENCE
Sources:Sykes et al., (2016); Images:Amazon, Wikipedia
Slide 36 of 74

But we need to think about technology…
Remember:
Drones are military technology used
for spying on people!
Big data is military technology used
to spy on people!
Remote ‘lairs’ are what the villains
have!
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the stuff
of dystopia…
#techlash #neoluddism
#deletefacebook #deletegoogle
20 February 2020
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Attack of
the Drones
The Last Jedi
(or field geo)
The Search
for Spock
The Final
Frontier
Slide 37 of 74

…and the social implications of it…
Which seems the most
plausible skill set to recruit in
the future?
Compare it to the previous
slide…
20 February 2020
Remote exploration
Yes No
Local
engagement
Yes
No
Data
science
Field
geology
Social and
geoscience
Social
and data
science
Slide 38 of 74

Yet, we’ve hardly begun to innovate!
Miners appear to be “sustainers”…
Bigger,
Bigger,
Bigger…
…and now automated!
…the oil industry seems a
bit more disruptive?
Based on:C.M. Christensen,1997, The Innovator’sDilemma;
Images:miniature-construction-world.co.uk;The Telegraph; Shutterstock;mining-technology.com;stanford.edu;lancs.ac.uk
20 February 2020
Slide 39 of 74

Past visions of the future of mining are the same
…by 2135… there will hardly be any miners underground. Minerals will be won
either by robotized machinery or by in situ extraction of the valuable
ingredients. …biotechnology will be increasingly employed in situ to convert
metals into a readily soluble form. Mineral processing would then become
largely a matter of handling solutions, thus obviating the need for crushing and
grinding.”
- Arvi Parbo, former BHP Chairman, in S.D. Strauss, 1986, Trouble in the Third Kingdom, p210
The radically different view of the future of mining has been the same for a long time. Why?
20 February 2020
Slide 40 of 74

Mining is behind the curve…
20 February 2020
Source: HBR
Slide 41 of 74

The current mining industry innovation package
20 February 2020
Incremental
e.g. mining
Proximal e.g.
petroleum
Radical e.g.
rest of world
The ‘fringe’!
Drones
Remote mining
Big data
Driverless
trucks
Slide 42 of 74

Moving towards the fringe & radical innovation
Four key areas of science and
technology (Turney, 2010):
Biotechnology & genetics
Computer science, IT & AI
Nanotechnology
Brain science (neuro, psych,
& AI)
20 February 2020
Slide 43 of 74

Moving towards the fringe & radical innovation
20 February 2020
Slide 44 of 74

The ‘Dickensian’ Scenarios
(the geopolitical search space)
20 February 2020
Slide 45 of 74

The Dickensian scenarios focused on politics
20 February 2020
Progressive
Conservative
Globalist
Protectionist The next few
decades?
Ebenezer Scrooge
the protectionist capitalist
e.g. Donald Trump
Mr. Fezziwig
the globalising philanthropist
e.g. Justin Trudeau
Jacob Marley
the globalising capitalist
e.g. Xi Jinping?
Bob Cratchit
the protectionist worker
e.g. Jeremy Corbyn
Tiny Tim(s)
the vulnerable of society
i.e. most social movements
Slide 46 of 74

A brief history lesson: the rise of free trade
20 February 2020
Socialist
Capitalist
UK Whigs
‘Corn Law’ Tories
Free Trading
Protectionist / Mercantilist
Lack of official party representation for working
classes – franchise still limited to middle and
upper classes
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Early 19th century
Slide 47 of 74

A brief history lesson: the rise of free trade
20 February 2020
Liberal
Conservative
‘Gladstone’
Liberals
‘Peel’ & ‘Disraeli’
Conservatives
Free Trading
Protectionist / Mercantilist
Lack of official party representation for localist
and protectionist values – franchise still not fully
expanded (esp. women) – liberals take ‘top-down’
approach to social progress (e.g. Gladstone) – a
similar attitude is seen with ‘Tory Paternalism’
(Disraeli)
‘Left wing’ ‘Right wing’
Late 19th century
After ‘winning’ the battle
on free trade, the Whig
agenda moves from
economic liberalism to
social liberalism
Conservatives adopt ‘liberal
economics’ and become a free-
trading / colonialist party, but
with conservative values –
Tamworth Manifesto
Slide 48 of 74

A brief history lesson: the rise of labour
20 February 2020
Socialist
Capitalist
AUS ‘Labor’
UK ‘Labour’
US ‘Democrats’
Free Trading
Protectionist
Rise of the labour movement
including rights for workers and
protection of jobs from free-trade
and technological advance
(luditism)
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Early 20th century
‘Liberalism’ effectively destroyed by the
rise of the labour movement following full
male franchise, which gives workers a
direct say in democracy – their attitude is
more protectionist than the liberals
AUS ‘Liberals’
UK ‘Conservatives’
US ‘Republicans’
Parties now divide neatly
between left (workers,
protectionist) and right
(capitalist, free trading)
All four points of the
spectrum are covered
by the two poles of
parties
Slide 49 of 74

A brief history lesson: the rise of progressivism
20 February 2020
Progressive
Conservative
UK ‘Labour’
Free Trading
Protectionist
‘Left wing’
‘Right wing’
Late 20th century
Rise of social progress movements to provide rights to minority groups either
officially or unofficially locked out or disadvantaged by the prevailing system.
Includes indigenous people and social movements such as gay rights and
feminism – the latter having a more international flavour though as they seek
to transform the lives of similar minorities across the globe.
AUS ‘Liberals’
Parties still divide fairly neatly between left and right,
however left wing parties are starting to drift away from
protectionism and localism, as the focus moves to using
capital to fund socially progressive activities and
globalisation to promote a socially progressive agenda
(e.g. cosmopolitanism)
AUS ‘Labor’
US ‘Democrats’
‘Green’ parties in
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
‘Indigenous’ movements
e.g. Mabo in AUS, First
Nations in CAN
‘Social’ movements
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
Slide 50 of 74

A brief history lesson: the rise of globalisation
20 February 2020
Progressive
Conservative
UK Blairite
‘New Labour’
Globalist
Localist
Early 21st century
Left-right divide is now
largely defined by
progressive or
conservative social values
(i.e. the culture wars), with
most major parties
following a globalist,
capitalist agenda. The
right sees this as an
opportunity to maximise
economic development
and open up free trade,
whilst the left sees this as
an opportunity to
internationalise
progressive values and
use the proceeds of
capitalism to fund socially
progressive activities
AUS ‘Liberals’
Lack of official party
representation of
localist /
protectionist values
AUS ‘Labor’
US Clinton ‘3rd
Way Democrats’
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
‘Indigenous’ movements
e.g. Native Title in AUS,
First Nations in CAN
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
Only two points
of the spectrum
are covered by
the parties
Most official
parties are broadly
global capitalist
Slide 51 of 74

A brief history lesson: the return of protectionism
20 February 2020
Progressive
Conservative
UK Blairite ‘New
Labour’ (now ‘old’)
Globalist
Protectionist
The 2010s
AUS Abbott
‘Liberals’
US Bush/GOP
‘Republicans’
Rise of protectionist
parties with both
progressive and
conservative social values,
either as rebel parts of
existing parties or as new
parties
AUS ‘Labor’
Clinton /
Obama
‘Democrats’
AUS, Ger, UK &
Ralph Nadar in US
‘Indigenous’
movements e.g.
Native Title in AUS,
First Nations in CAN
e.g. gay rights,
feminism etc.
All four points of the spectrum are
covered by often very divided
political parties
Most ‘official’
parties are broadly
global capitalist
UK ‘Old Labour –
Corbynist (now
‘renewed’)
Sanders
Democrats
UK Cameron
‘Conservatives’
AUS Turnbull
‘Liberals’
UKIP Trump
‘Republicans’
Tea Party
‘Republicans’
Slide 52 of 74

Politics is like a playground…
Swings
The normal ‘back and forth’ of democratic
politics;
In a long-term industry to not to react to
every ‘swing’ as can be wasteful and
isolating;
The mining industry generally over-reacts
to the short-term.
Roundabouts
• Longer term structural shifts
that re-shape all sides of
politics;
• These are important to adapt to
as they will only reverse over
the long-term;
• The mining industry
generally misses these shifts.
Climbing frames
• Pre-determined elements of the
future that are yet to play out;
• You cannot avoid tackling these
issues, even if you want to;
• Often are recognised by the
industry, but nonetheless are
difficult to act upon.
Sources: Wack, 1985; Sykes et al., 2017
20 February 2020
Slide 53 of 74

…you have to climb the climbing frame!
Is the shift against ‘sustainable development’ a swing,
roundabout, or climbing frame?
A climbing frame: difficult to envision a developed society paying less
attention to environmental and social conditions e.g. rise of environmentalism
in Chinese middle class.
Is the shift against ‘globalisation’ a swing, roundabout, or
climbing frame?
A roundabout (maybe): a key aspect of ‘globalisation’ is ‘glocalism’ i.e. the
strengthening of local identity and rights as everything is placed in global
context – the franchise ‘McDonaldisation’ of the world.
Image: Local style McDonald’s fish burger in
Singapore
Image: Environmental protests in China
Images: South China Morning Post, Wikipedia; Sources: Ritzer, 1993; Steger, 2013; The Economist, 2016; Sykes et al., 2017
20 February 2020
Slide 54 of 74

How are we doing, so far?
BHP Billiton
• “Think Big” campaign &
name change (dropping
‘Billiton’) about restoring
domestic pride;
• Rating: B
• Needs to be backed up
by ‘local’ efforts.
20 February 2020
Sandfire / Tintina
• Launched “Make
Montana Great Again”
campaign for Black Butte
project shortly after
Trump victory;
• Rating: C
• Focus on the trend
(roundabout), not the
personality (swing).
WA Royalties
• Strong reaction by iron ore
and gold industry to tax
hikes;
• Probably inevitable (WA
bust) – should have
mitigated this earlier;
• Rating: D
• The industry is making long-
and short-term enemies on
many sides.
Sources: BHP, 2017; Fitzgerald, 2017; Radisich et al., 2017a, 2017b; Sykes et al., 2017; Trench & Sykes, 2017; Trench et al., 2017
Slide 55 of 74

A localist ‘bottom-up’ effort is required
We should learn our lessons from the
frontline workers of Rio Tinto and Virgin
Australia at Perth Airport!*
Social licence is ‘local’ – it requires a
bottom up effort, not a top-down one;
Hence, why this is a presentation for
explorers, not about ‘exploration geology’;
You and your exploration team will be
leading us into the future…
20 February 2020
* See appendix for explanation of the story (source: Sykes & Trench, 2017d); Images: Virgin Australia; Rio Tinto
Slide 56 of 74

The Final Scene
(or cliff hanger?)
20 February 2020
Slide 57 of 74

Some New Search Spaces?
The final scenarios workshops identified three new ‘conceptual’ search spaces for mineral explorers:
1. Previously underexplored minor commodities associated major structural socio-
economic change, such as the ‘energy transition’ (one form of ‘sustainable resource’);
2. Regions with restricted socio-political access that may be overcome with a better
‘social licence to operate’ (another form of ‘sustainable resource’);
3. Converting geopolitical concerns into exploration opportunities, i.e. ‘strategic
resources’.
In addition to the already identified ‘under cover’ search space.
But this will require some changes in exploration industry capabilities!
20 February 2020
Slide 58 of 74

We May Not Be Seeing What Is Already Here
20 February 2020
The “Dee Why” (one of the
Sydney ferries) in the early
1930s, sailing past the Sydney
Harbour Bridge under
construction.
Source: Wikipedia
Slide 59 of 74

Because We Do Not See What Is Not There
20 February 2020
A (pre-Columbus) world map from Rome in 1478 based on a map in Ptolemy’s ‘Geographia’.
Note how this
map fills up all
the space – all
the world is
‘known’– no
exploration
required!
Note that maps
had not been
updated since
the Classical Era
(+1,300 years
prior!)
Source:Reed.edu
Slide 60 of 74

Because We Do Not See What Is Not There (but is)
20 February 2020
The (post-Columbus) ‘Salvati’world map from Florence, circa 1527.
This map invites
exploration!
(Look at all the space that
needs filling)
Source:Reed.edu
Slide 61 of 74

Seeing What Others Do Not is a Skill
This…
- Hunting
- Illumination
- Connections
- Coincidences
- Curiosities
- Desperation
20 February 2020
Slide 62 of 74
Not this…
Images:GoogleBooks;Wikipedia

But geologists are perceptive and creative!
20 February 2020
The classic text on using drawing to
develop creativity through perception
(alsoused in ‘ThinkingSkills’ workshop)
Now adapted by geologist Emma
Jude to teach the same to geologists
(article in Geoscientist)
Sample page from upcoming
textbook by Prof. Matt Genge on
“Geological Field Sketches and
Illustrations: A PracticalGuide”
Slide 63 of 74

Geologists are good at seeing what’s not there!
20 February 2020
Slide 64 of 74
One of those ‘classic’ UNCOVER photos: Mount Browne Inlier,NSW
(Source:Rowe, 2017)

The exploration capabilities of the future?
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
• a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
• better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
• developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets and other ‘new & different’ situations;
• building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
• switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
• developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
• encouraging creativity and ideation;
• linking short and long-term thinking;
• coping with and exploiting exogenous change;
• improving the image of exploration;
• monitoring local and global socio-political, economic and technological trends and
• measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
• encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.
20 February 2020
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Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to acknowledge the Noongar people, who remain the spiritual and cultural custodians of the land, upon which The University of Western
Australia is situated, and pay my respect to Elders both past and present.
I would like to acknowledgethe support of my PhD supervision team: Allan Trench (CET, UWA), Mark Jessell (CET,UWA), Campbell McCuaig (BHP), and Nicolas Thebaud (CET,
UWA); as well as the financial support of a Centre for Exploration Targeting ‘Ad hoc’ scholarship and an Australian Government ResearchTraining ProgramScholarship.
I would also like to thank the participants in the three CET “Future of Minerals Exploration” Scenarios Workshops: Jonathan Bell (CET, Curtin), Leila Ben Mcharek (Muslim Studies, UWA), Rob
Bills (Emmerson Resources), Aida Carneiro (Mining Engineering, UWA), Ivy Chen (CSA Global), Aaron Colleran (Evolution Mining), Tim Craske (Geowisdom), Liz Dallimore (KPMG), Deon
deBruin (Diamond Indicator Minerals), Edoaldo Di Dio (Calibre Projects), Joe Dwyer (HiSeis), Mayara Fraeda (CET-UWA), Nick Franey (NFJ Consulting), Simon Gatehouse (BHP), Jeremie
Giraud (CET, UWA), Marcelo Godefroy Rodriguez (CET, UWA), Chris Gonzalez (CET, UWA), Isabel Granado (Information Systems, Curtin), Matt Greentree (Ausgold), David Groves (CET, UWA),
Mike Haederle (Rio Tinto), Mike Hannington (Metalicity), Nick Hayward (Teck), Amanda Hellberg (Law, UWA), Paul Hodkiewicz (Anglo American), Amy Imbergamo (Environmental Science,
UWA), Constanza Jara (CET, UWA), Caroline Johnson (CSIRO), Heta Lampinen (CET, UWA), Helen Langley (Law, UWA), John Libby (Digirock), Martin Lynch (Author of “Mining in World History”),
Stuart Masters (CS-2 Consulting), Michael Mead (Gold Fields), Adele Millard (Anthropology, UWA), Joanne Moo (Environmental Science, UWA), Suzanne Murray (Billabong Gold), Sandra
Occhipinti (CET, UWA), Ahmad Saleem (CET, UWA), Ian Satchwell (PerthUSAsia Centre), Robert Sills (Sills Strategic Materials), John Southalan (Law, UWA), David Stevenson (CET, UWA),
Narendran Subramaniam (Transmin), Siobhan Sullivan (Plant Biology, UWA), Daniel Sully (Teck), Janet Sutherland (Business, Curtin), Marcus Tomkinson (MMG), Marnie Tonkin
(Anthropology, UWA), Jan Tunjic (CET, UWA), Will Turner (Millenium Minerals), Stanislav Ulrich (AngloGold Ashanti), Jessica Volich (BHP), Wenchao Wan (Chemical Engineering, UWA), Peter
Williams (HiSeis), Marcus Willson (CSA Global) and Afira Zulkifli Tahmali (Environmental Science, UWA).
I wouldalso like to thank Steve Beresford (IndependenceGroup), Jon Hronsky (Western Mining Services), RobbieRowe (NextGen Geological),Richard Schodde(MinEx Consulting),John Vann (Anglo American) and
the members of #explorationtalk for the continuedsupport, guidance,and championingof this research.
This work has also benefittedfrom the contributionsof manyotherpeople who have co-authoredpapers, provided input,or contributedin some otherway, whetherthey knewit or not.These include David Abraham (TREM, IAGS), Saleem Ali
(Universityof Delaware),Tim Andrews(WesternPower),Lucy Ash (IndependentGeologist),MilesAshton (BaronPropertyGroup), Alex Atkins (Alex Atkins Associates),RogerBade (WhitmanHoward),Anthony Barich (Aspermont),Laurent
Barrere(Gryzlly Resources),GeoffBatt(MBA, UWA), Kristie Batten(MiningNews.net),Anselm Boehl (BHP),Carla Boehl(WASM, Curtin),Doug Brewster(IndependentExplorationGeologist),ZenoushkaBynevelt(BHP), Sarah Connolly(Gold
Fields),Jess Currell (EY), Sam Davies(CET, UWA), Aaron Dixon (EY),Nick Gardiner(CET, Curtin),Chris Gemell(Wood Mackenzie),Mike Gershon(GershonLearning),Pietro Guj (CET, Curtin),Nancy Hanna(CSIRO), Jess Harman(BHP), Matt
Horgan(Alcoa),Simon Jowitt (Universityof Nevada, Las Vegas),MatthewKanakis(KPMG), PeterKettle (ITRI), Cho Khong (Shell),Cui Lin (ITRI), Paul Miller(Vedanta),Gavin Mudd (RMIT University),Tom Mulqueen(ITRI), Janusz Olbromski
(Brickworks),Ian Radisich (South32),Rafael Ramirez (Universityof Oxford), LaurenceRobb (Universityof Oxford),Paul Robinson (CRU), CynthiaSelin (ArizonaState University),Bindi Shah (MBA, UWA), NatalieStaffurth(Terravision
Exploration),Mark Tyrer (ImperialCollege),Kees van der Heijden(Universityof Oxford),Jess Volich(BHP), AngelaWilkinson(World EnergyCouncil),and Josh Wright(RowtonConsolidated).
20 February 2020
Slide 66 of 74

Key References
• Sykes, J.P., 2014, Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level (The Hollywood Edition), Centre for Exploration Targeting Members’ Day,
December, Perth (WA).
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014, Chapter 14: Finding the copper mine of the 21st century: Conceptual exploration targeting for hypothetical copper
reserves, in Special Publication Number 18: Building exploration capability for the 21st century, (eds., K.D. Kelley & H.C. Golden), Society of Economic
Geologists: Littleton (CO), 273-300.
• Sykes, J.P., Wright, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125, 1, 3-
20.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Using Scenarios to Investigate the Long-term Future of Copper Mining and Guide Exploration Targeting Strategies,
International Mine Management Conference, Brisbane (QLD), 22-24 August.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2017, The Impact of the Renewable Energy Transition on Battery and Strategic Metal Markets [presentation], AIG Battery &
Strategic Metals Seminar, Perth (WA), 10 November.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., Craske, T., Dwyer, J., Subramaniam, N., Sullivan, S.T.M., & Turner, W., 2016, Transforming the Future of Minerals
Exploration, AusIMM New Zealand Branch Conference, Wellington, 4-6 September, 407-418.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2017, Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of globalisation and sustainability in the
long-term future of mining and exploration, Tenth International Mining Geology Conference, Hobart (TAS), 20-22 September, 239-256.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., & McCuaig, T.C., 2017, The Future(s) of Minerals Exploration [poster], TARGET Conference, Perth (WA), 19-21 April.
20 February 2020
Slide 67 of 74

Other References
• Erdmann, D., Sichel, B., & Yeung, L., 2015, Overcoming Obstacles to Effective Scenario Planning, McKinsey Quarterly, June, 1-6.
• Franks, D.M., Davis, R., Bebbington, A.J., Ali, S.H., Kemp, D., & Scurrah, M., 2014, Conflict Translates Environmental and Social Risk into Business
Costs, PNAS, 111, 21, 7576-7581.
• Fukuyama, F., 1992, The End of History and the Last Man, Penguin Books: London.
• Humphreys, D., 2010, The Great Metals Boom: A Retrospective, Resources Policy, 35, 1-13.
• Markowitz, H., 1952, Portfolio Selection, The Journal of Finance, 7, 1, 77-91.
• Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A., 2016, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press: Oxford.
• Rigby, D., & Bilodeau, B., 2007, A Growing Focus on Preparedness, Harvard Business Review, 85, 7/8, 21-22.
• Rowe, R., 2017, Unlocking Australia’s Hidden Potential: An industry roadmap, AIMRA International & UNCOVER Australia, 1 September, Melbourne, VIC,
152p.
• Silver, N., 2012, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Penguin Books: London.
• Taleb, N.N., 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Allen Lane: London.
• Tetlock, P.E., 2005, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press: Princeton (NJ).
• Tetlock, P.E., & Gardner, D., 2015, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, Random House Books: London.
• Tilton, J.E., & Guzman, J.I., 2016, Mineral Economics and Policy, Routledge: Abingdon (UK).
• Wack, P., 1985, Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review, 63, 6, 139-150.
20 February 2020
Slide 68 of 74

Using scenarios to explore the future of mining

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