The Rogers Diffusion Curve maps the progress of adoption from invention through embrace to the final state. In these slides, that model is applied to the use of technology in the legal marketplace.

1. The Rogers Diffusion Curve:
Applied to the Legal Industry
William Henderson
Indiana University Maurer School of Law
Lawyer Metrics LLC

2. “[A]ll models are wrong,
but some are useful.”
-- George E.P. Box, Statistician

4. Rogers Diffusion
Curve
Time

5. 100%
Rogers Diffusion
Curve
50%
Time

9. Figure 1. Percentage of Farm Operators First Hearing of Hybrid Seed
Corn and Percentages First Accepting It, by years
Source: Ryan, B., & Gross, N. C. (1943). The diffusion of hybrid seed
corn in two Iowa communities. Rural Sociology 8:15-24.

10. Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed
Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in
Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988).

11. Percentage of Total Acreage Planted with Hybrid Seed
Manufacturing
Finance
Medicine
Consulting
Law
Source: “Hybrid Corn: An Explanation in the Economics of Technological Change” in
Technology, Education, and Productivity (1988).

12. Legal
Complexity
Reality
Rise of the
Large Firms
1914
Experience and
Perception
1984
Corporate
Growth
© William D Henderson, 2014

13. Legal
Complexity
Reality
Rise of the
Large Firms
1914
Higher
profits
Experience and
Perception
1984
2014
Corporate
Growth
© William D Henderson, 2014

14. Legal
Complexity
Reality
Search for
substitutes to
deal with cost
and quality
Rise of the
Large Firms
1914
Higher
profits
Experience and
Perception
1984
2014
2044
Corporate
Growth
© William D Henderson, 2014

15. Two Hemispheres
Hemisphere 1:
People Clients
Hemisphere 2:
Organizational
Clients

16. Organizational
Clients
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
People
Clients
“Two-Hemispheres”
Y
Artisan Guild
Criminal
Defense /
Public
Defenders
Bespoke
Standardized
Systematized
Productized
Commoditized
X
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
© William D Henderson, 2014

17. Organizational
Clients
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
People
Clients
“Two-Hemispheres”
Y
Artisan Guild
Criminal
Defense /
Public
Defenders
Bespoke
Standardized
Systematized
Productized
Commoditized
X
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
© William D Henderson, 2014

18. Organizational
Clients
Low Cost
Providers
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
People
Clients
“Two-Hemispheres”
Y
Multidisciplinary
Teams
Artisan Guild
Criminal
Defense /
Public
Defenders
Bespoke
Standardized
Systematized
Productized
Commoditized
X
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
© William D Henderson, 2014

19. Organizational
Clients
Low Cost
Providers
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
People
Clients
“Two-Hemispheres”
Y
Multidisciplinary
Teams
Artisan Guild
PeopleLaw –
e.g., Modria
and Legal
Force
Criminal
Defense /
Public
Defenders
Bespoke
Standardized
Systematized
Legal Publishers
e.g., LegalZoom,
Rocket Lawyer
Productized
Commoditized
X
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
© William D Henderson, 2014

20. Organizational
Clients
Low Cost
Providers
eDiscovery
Vendors
BigLaw
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
People
Clients
“Two-Hemispheres”
Y
Multidisciplinary
Teams
Artisan Guild
PeopleLaw –
e.g., Modria
and Legal
Force
Criminal
Defense /
Public
Defenders
Bespoke
Standardized
Systematized
Legal Publishers
e.g., LegalZoom,
Rocket Lawyer
Productized
Commoditized
X
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
© William D Henderson, 2014

21. Organizational
Clients
In-House Vertical
Integration
NewLaw – e.g.
Axiom, Novus
BigLaw
Low Cost
Providers
eDiscovery
Vendors
LeanLaw
e.g.,
Seyfarth
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
People
Clients
“Two-Hemispheres”
Y
Multidisciplinary
Teams
Artisan Guild
PeopleLaw –
e.g., Modria
and Legal
Force
Criminal
Defense /
Public
Defenders
Bespoke
Standardized
Systematized
Legal Publishers
e.g., LegalZoom,
Rocket Lawyer
Productized
Commoditized
X
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
© William D Henderson, 2014

22. Organizational
Clients
In-House Vertical
Integration
NewLaw – e.g.
Axiom, Novus
BigLaw
LeanLaw
TechLaw
KM &
Analytics
Vendors
Low Cost
Providers
eDiscovery
Vendors
E.g., kCura,
Recommind,
Lex Machina
e.g.,
Seyfarth
Regional Law Firms
Solo & Small Firms
People
Clients
“Two-Hemispheres”
Y
Multidisciplinary
Teams
Artisan Guild
PeopleLaw –
e.g., Modria
and Legal
Force
Criminal
Defense /
Public
Defenders
Bespoke
Standardized
Systematized
Legal Publishers
e.g., LegalZoom,
Rocket Lawyer
Productized
Commoditized
X
Susskind ‘s Market Evolution
© William D Henderson, 2014

23. Variables Determining
Rate of Adoption
Dependent Variable to
Be Explained
Perceived Attributes of Innovation
1. Relative Advantage
2. Compatibility
3. Complexity
4. Trialability
5. Observability
Type of Innovation-Decision
1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority
Rate of Adoption
of Innovation
Communication Channels
Increased by more and better mediums
Nature of Social System
E.g, traditional versus modern, isolated
or interconnected to other systems
Efforts of Change Agents
Educational and promotional efforts
Adapted from Everett Rogers,
Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)

24. Variables Determining
Rate of Adoption
Dependent Variable to
Be Explained
Perceived Attributes of Innovation
1. Relative Advantage
2. Compatibility
3. Complexity
4. Trialability
5. Observability
Type of Innovation-Decision
1. Optional 2. Collective 3. Authority
Rate of Adoption
of Innovation
Communication Channels
Increased by more and better mediums
Nature of Social System
E.g, traditional versus modern, isolated
or interconnected to other systems
Efforts of Change Agents
Educational and promotional efforts
Adapted from Everett Rogers,
Diffusion of Innovation Fig 6.1 (2003)

25. Increasing the Speed of Innovation: Lessons Learned
Relative Advantage
Substitutes to make better, faster, or cheaper
Reducing Complexity
Making adoption incremental and natural
Creating Observability
Showcasing others’ successes (cornfields)
Allowing Trialability
Pilots to decrease fear of adoption
Decision-Making
Mandated vs optional vs collective
Communication Channel
Mass media vs interpersonal vs internet
Leaders and Laggards
Across and within organizations
Interconnectedness
The whole is greater than the sum of its parts