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Kaihan ccl march 2014

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Presentation delivered on March 22, 2014 to CCL Industries' leadership in Asheville, NC.

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Kaihan ccl march 2014

  1. 1. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Anyone Can Change the World March 22, 2014 Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net
  2. 2. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  3. 3. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  4. 4. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  5. 5. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus
  6. 6. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ratan Tata
  7. 7. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  8. 8. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Thomas Edison
  9. 9. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ray Kroc
  10. 10. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson
  11. 11. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Richard Branson Oprah Winfrey Elizabeth Arden Dhirubhai Ambani Bill Gates Charles Revson Henry Ford Sōichirō Honda
  12. 12. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Martin Luther King, Jr. Mother Teresa Mahatma Gandhi Nelson Mandela Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus Margaret Thatcher Benjamin Franklin
  13. 13. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Elon Musk CEO, Tesla Motors Tom Adams CEO, Rosetta Stone Mark Zuckerberg CEO, Facebook Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post Robert Keane CEO, Vistaprint Wayne Gattinella CEO, WebMD Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab Marissa Mayer CEO, Yahoo Larry Page CEO, Google Mark Vadon Founder, Blue Nile Josh Linkner Founder, ePrize Ann Hand CEO, Project Frog Susan Lyne CEO, Gilt Groupe Cory Booker Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA Jeff Bezos Founder, Amazon.com
  14. 14. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.” Mohandas Gandhi
  15. 15. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not consider, and will not respond effectively to. The 4th Option®
  16. 16. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 1 Go home Wait Cross
  17. 17. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  18. 18. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  19. 19. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Outthinkers are Outliers “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” Lord Kelvin President, Royal Society, circa 1895 “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” Harry M. Warner, CEO of Warner Brothers Pictures, circa 1927 “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.” Ken Olsen President , Digital Equipment Corporation,1977 “There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of the atom.” Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923 “The phonograph … is not of any commercial value.” Thomas Alva Edison (Inventor of the Phonograph), circa 1880
  20. 20. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  21. 21. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  22. 22. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net URBN Revenue History $ Millions Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF 350 425 550 830 1,090 1,230 1,510 1,840 1,940 2,270 2,470 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
  23. 23. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net URBN Results 5 5 13 Industry ANF** URBN Growth 5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%) 14 12 20 Profitability 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%) * 5 years average as of October 2013 ** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization Source: Reuters
  24. 24. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net College students only Used clothing Artists not managers in charge Manager freedom Every store different …
  25. 25. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Position Process Physical experience People PlaceProduct PromotionPrice 0 = no difference 1 = different; competition will catch us in < 5 yrs. 2 = different; competition won’t catch us for 5+ yrs. LEGEND
  26. 26. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net How to we create our 4th Option®?
  27. 27. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Imagine a different future
  28. 28. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Dissect Imagine a different future Pick leverage points others ignore
  29. 29. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Dissect Expand Imagine a different future Pick leverage points others ignore Generate more strategic options
  30. 30. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Imagine a different future Pick leverage points others ignore Generate more strategic options Choose options others view as “impossible”
  31. 31. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell Imagine a different future Pick leverage points others ignore Generate more strategic options Choose options others view as “impossible” Build buy-in
  32. 32. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell
  33. 33. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Position Process Physical experience People PlaceProduct PromotionPrice The 8Ps • Which are the obvious 2Ps? • Which are being overlooked? • Where will you look?
  34. 34. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell
  35. 35. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Alexandra Kosteniuk How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?”
  36. 36. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory Consciousness Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer
  37. 37. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Relative number of narratives chess players recognize: Grand master Master Expert
  38. 38. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Europe & Americas – Fairy tales Japan – Koan India – Puranas China – 36 stratagems
  39. 39. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Identifying Outthinkers Value creation (TRS) Revenue growth (CAGR) (EBITDA) Profit margin
  40. 40. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Core Research
  41. 41. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  42. 42. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  43. 43. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22 “I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.” Elon Musk, founder, Space- X (2003 interview)
  44. 44. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  45. 45. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Move Early to the Next Battleground22
  46. 46. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Identify and move early to the next battleground. Where is the next battleground? - Technological trends? - Social shifts? - Geographies? - Buying patterns? - Needs? 22 Move Early to the Next Battleground
  47. 47. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  48. 48. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  49. 49. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  50. 50. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  51. 51. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34 Digital Coordination
  52. 52. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  53. 53. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  54. 54. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  55. 55. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  56. 56. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  57. 57. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power. Who would we like to coordinate? - Customers - Experts - Employees - Real estate - Regulators - Competitors - Driveways - … Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
  58. 58. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  59. 59. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7
  60. 60. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7
  61. 61. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Cloud providers Cloud services Retail “There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.” - Jeff Bezos
  62. 62. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a Two-Front Battle7 Film Animation Cos.
  63. 63. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 7 Force a Two-Front Battle Traditional CPA firms Projects Resources (Accnts)
  64. 64. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Force a two-front battle7 Project your unique capability into a new area. What is your unique advantage/ capability? Into what new area could you project this?
  65. 65. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  66. 66. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Environment Employees Community Govern- ment / country Share- holders Customers Corporation 33 Be Good
  67. 67. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  68. 68. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  69. 69. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net 33 Be Good
  70. 70. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The Holstee Manifesto
  71. 71. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Adopt a strategy that Benefits others. How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering? Be good33
  72. 72. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good
  73. 73. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  74. 74. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  75. 75. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ingvar Kamprad Create Something Out of Nothing32
  76. 76. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  77. 77. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Create Something Out of Nothing32
  78. 78. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Add a new piece the board. What would you like to create/ add to the game? - New categories? - New occasions or needs? - New customers? - New suppliers? - New distributors? - New regulations? Create something out of nothing32
  79. 79. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net
  80. 80. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Narratives to Find a Fourth Option #7 Force two-front battle #32 Create something out of nothing #22 Move early to the next battleground #34 Coordinate the uncoordinated #33 Be good How can you project into a new sector? What can you create? Where is the next battleground? Who could you coordinate? How can you be good?
  81. 81. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net The IDEAS Framework Imagine Dissect Expand Analyze Sell
  82. 82. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.” Napoleon Bonaparte
  83. 83. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  84. 84. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Selecting your 4th Option High Low Crazy ideas Winning moves Wastes of time Tactics Impact • How far would this get me toward my goal? • How long before the competition responds? Difficult Easy • Can we do this quickly? • Is this inexpensive? • Do we have the capability?
  85. 85. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Selecting your 4th Option High Low Crazy ideas Winning moves Wastes of time Tactics Impact • How far would this get me toward my goal? • How long before the competition responds? Difficult Easy • Can we do this quickly? • Is this inexpensive? • Do we have the capability?
  86. 86. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net “It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.” - Albert Einstein
  87. 87. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Make the impossible possible Don’t build handsets Risk of no WiFi Customer Service too costly “Each of these looked like show stoppers” Motorola Early adopters No one provides service David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com
  88. 88. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Objectives Commit to a different future Imagine Choose leverage points others overlook Dissect Generate more potential strategies Expand Choose strategies others won’t copy Analyze Decide how to get key stakeholders board Sell Mr. Practical Mr. Obvious Mr. Expert Mr. What Works Mr. Cog
  89. 89. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  90. 90. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  91. 91. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  92. 92. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Mohammad Yunus
  93. 93. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ratan Tata
  94. 94. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net
  95. 95. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Thomas Edison
  96. 96. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Ray Kroc
  97. 97. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net Betsy Johnson
  98. 98. 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.www.kaihan.net kaihan@outthinker.com www.outthinker.com www.kaihan.net @kaihan • Work out your Fourth Option® • Email me to get presentation • Sign up for newsletter • Access tools and videos • Contact us for more support

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