How to improve decision making in crisis and emergencies ?

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PRESENTED BY : KODS SHILI

2. Plan
III.Improving decision making in crisis :the steps
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I.Introduction
II.Decision making : the bases
1)Leveraging the human strengths
2)Mitigating the decision derailers
3)Mitigating actions
4)Stimulating the skills

3. Introduction
THE BELIEF
Logical + Rational decision
Intended results achieved
A.SMITH ( 1776): Economic choices are made in a rational manner
 Most decisions are not logical or well analyzed  Individual’s decision making is based on consistent and predictable behaviours
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4. Intuitive approach Cognitive approach
Introduction
Structured
Analytic
Disciplined More effort
Easy way
Cognitively lazy ones Less effort
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5. Timeliness
Quality
Characteristics of effective decisions
Introduction
Respect of Decision timeline
Awareness of human behaviour
Understanding of the decision- making environment
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6. How to make decisions in crisis ?
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7. II.Decision making : the bases
OODA Loop (John Boyd)
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8. II.Decision making : the bases
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9. II.Decision making : the bases
Cynefin sense-making framework (Snowden & CO)
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UN-ORDERED AREA
ORDERED AREA
DISORDER

10. III.Improving decision making in crisis: the steps
1)Leveraging the human strengths
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Human strengths
Cognitive diversity
Critical thinking
+ information
+ diverse perspectives
+ problem-solving techniques
+ effectiveness
Asking the hard questions
Demanding supporting data
Testing logic & rationality + potential solutions

11. How to palliate decision derailers ?
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12. 2)Mitigating the decision derailers
Altered perspectives
•framing
•Compelling stories
•Recent events
Organizational speed bumps
•Excessive optimism
•overconfidence
Appeal to authority
•Sunflower reflex
•Champion bias
Resistance
•Escalating commitment
•Anchoring
•Loss aversion
Information pathologies
•Confirmation bias
•Information bias
•WYSIATI
•Failure to communicate
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How to reduce the impact of decision derailers during crisis ?

14. Take advantage of cognitive diversity and Commit to critical thinking
Learn to recognize and understand the decision derailers
Do not commit to information or decisions before necessary and do not delay decisions beyond timeline
Identify the largest number of options practical and keep them open as long as practicable
Revisit decision as often as the evolving situation indicates
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3)Mitigating actions

15. 4)Stimulating the skills
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