Zimtu Capital Corp.: Canadian Uranium Exploration & The Athabasca Basin
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Presentation from Derek Hamill, Research and Communications Zimtu Capital Corp. on Canadian Uranium Exploration & The Athabasca Basin. Orginally Presented at Vancouver Cambridge House Investment Conference Sunday January 26, 2014.
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Zimtu Capital Corp.: Canadian Uranium Exploration & The Athabasca Basin
- 1. CONNECTING OPPORTUNITY AND YOU. Canadian Uranium Exploration & The Athabasca Basin TSXv: ZC FSE: ZCT1 January 2014 / www.zimtu.com TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 2. DISCLAIMER Disclaimers and Cautionary Statements. The information contained in this presentation is provided by Zimtu Capital Corp. (“Zimtu”) for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to issue or arrange to issue, or the solicitation of an offer to issue, securities of Zimtu or other financial products. The information contained herein is not investment or financial product advice and is not intended to be used as the basis for making an investment decision. The views, opinions and advice provided in this presentation reflect those of the individual presenters, and are provided for information purposes only. The presentation has been prepared without taking into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information, opinions and conclusions contained in this presentation. To the maximum extent permitted by law, none of Zimtu nor its directors, officers, employees or agents, nor any other person accepts any liability, including, without limitation, any liability arising out of fault or negligence, for any loss arising from the use of the information contained in this presentation. Except for statements of historical fact, this presentation contains certain “forward-looking information” within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking information is frequently characterized by words such as “plan”, “expect”, “project”, “intend”, “believe”, “anticipate”, “estimate” and other similar words, or statements that certain events or conditions “may” or “will” occur. Forward-looking statements are based on the opinions and estimates of management at the date the statements are made, and are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements, including, among others, Zimtu’s future growth and development, the ability to create value through mineral property transactions, the proposed plans of any of Zimtu’s equity holdings, as well as those risk factors identified in Zimtu’s Filing Statement dated July 25, 2008 and other disclosure documents available at www.sedar.com under Zimtu’s name. Zimtu undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking information if circumstances or management’s estimates or opinions should change except as required by law. The reader is cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. This presentation includes information provided to Zimtu Capital Corp. by each of the respective equity holdings (the “Third Party Information”). Zimtu believes that all of these sources are reliable, but Zimtu has not independently verified any of this information and cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on the Third Party Information and are directed to review the respective SEDAR filings of each company at www.sedar.com. This presentation does not constitute an offer of shares for sale in the United States or to any person that is, or is acting for the account or benefit of, any U.S. person (as defined in Regulation S under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) (“U.S. Person”), or in any other jurisdiction in which such an offer would be illegal. Zimtu’s shares have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act. TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 3. No Place Like Home Source: Luke Schuss TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 4. Introduction Talking Points 1. Electricity Demand – a seat at the table for nuclear energy 2. The Commercial Nuclear Industry – future outlook has everything coming up roses? 3. The Commercial Nuclear Industry – contenders emerge 4. Reactor Builds – China is the major growth driver 140% Global Electricity Growth, 1985-2012 120% Electricity Generation 100% Nuclear 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 5. Zimtu’s Global Uranium Demand Projections – scenario analysis 6. The Athabasca Basin – the ultimate winner and why the region deserves your respect 7. Conclusion – Grade is King 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Source: BP Statistical Review 2013 Electricity Generating Capacity 15-yr CAGR (2010-2025) Institutional forecasts US eia BP Exxon Mobil Average Total electricity Nuclear 2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.3% 3.4% 1.4% 2.3% 2.4% Renewables (exhydro) 3.7% 10.0% 5.6% 6.4% Natural gas TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2%
- 5. Global Nuclear Reactor Trends 45 Construction starts Grid connections 35 Permanent shutdowns Three Mile Island Cancelled Constructions 25 15 COMPANY BUILDING Private to Public 5 Chernobyl PROJECT GENERATION Zimtu locates and acquires Fukushima mineral properties of Merit and connects them With public resource companies -5 -15 Source: IAEA|PRIS TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 6. The Bright Future for Commercial Nuclear Energy IEA Global Forecast Generating Capacity Required by 2035 (GW) 2010 2035 Required Increase NPS* 450 S** NPS* Nuclear Reactor Overview 450 S** Hydro 1027 1629 1803 59% 76% Wind 195 1102 1685 465% 764% Solar PV 28 499 901 1682% 3118% Nuclear 393 633 865 61% Number of Net Capacity Net MW reactors (GWe) per reactor 120% Operational Source: IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2011 855 71 70 981 Permanent Shutdown *New Policy Scenario (NPS) = IEA base case ** 450 Scenario (450 S) = probable achievement in reduction of global warming 374 Under construction Nuclear current capacity = 374GW 438 147 55 375 Source: IAEA|PRIS OECD LCOE Ranges, 2010 (USD/MWh) Technology* 5% Nuclear 29-82 Wind, onshore 48-163 Gas** 67-105 Coal** 54-120 *Solar not included as sample population too small **Includes carbon price of $30/tonne Discount rate Given a low discount rate, nuclear is competitive with other electricity generating technologies using a levelized cost comparison. 10% 42-137 70-234 76-120 67-142 Source: IEA/NEA/OECD TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 7. Smooth Sailing Ahead 25 US 2012 Electricity Production Costs (cents per KWh) 20 Coal 15 Gas OECD Overnight Construction Costs, 2010 Pre-financing Investment as share of total Construction costs* Technology charges period (years) (USD/kW) 5% 10% Nuclear 1600-5900 60% 75% N/A Wind 1900-3700 77% 87% 1-2 Gas 520-1800 12% 16% 2-3 *Investment includes financing but excludes future liabilities for clean-up **Onshore Source: IEA/NEA/OECD Nuclear Annual Nuclear Consumption 200 Petroleum Russia 10 Terawatt-hours 150 5 Korea 100 China 50 India 0 0 1994 Source: Nuclear Energy Institute 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 Source: BP Statistical Review 2013 TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 8. Nuclear reactors and historic U3O8 spot price up to 2014 500 $160 $140 400 $120 $100 300 $80 200 $60 $40 100 $20 0 $0 Operable Under Planned Proposed Construction China US World ex US & China Source: IAEA|PRIS, WNA Source: Cameco TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 9. Lurking Under the Surface Largest Consumers of Nuclear Energy Annual Nuclear Consumption 900 USA Peak Consumption (corresponding to 2768 TWh left margin) World 2010 World 2012 2477 TWh USA France Japan Russia Terawatt-hours Japan Germany 0 1984 1991 1998 2005 32.7% 17.2% 7.2% 6.1% 5.4% 5.1% 3.2% 2011 2001 2006 Germany China Canada 4.0% 3.9% 3.9% 3.2% 2007 Ukraine 3.9% Four countries – the US, France, Japan, and Russia represented 63% of total nuclear energy consumption in 2010. 300 1977 USA France Russia Korea Ukraine France 2010 2005 1998 2012 Korea Germany Canada 600 30.7% 15.5% 10.6% 6.2% 2012 Uranium demand over the next 10 years will be a function of the traditional “big 4” and a new entrant – China Source: BP Statistical Review 2013 TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 10. Uranium Demand: age becoming material 35 Weighted-average Age of Reactors Worldwide 35 Other, 197 30 25 USA, 100 number of reactors Total net electrical generating capacity 25 Number of Reactors 30 20 15 France, 58 20 DISCOVERY SPECULATION DEVELOPMENT INVESTMENT ANALYSIS PRODUCTION RE-VALUATION 15 Russia, 33 10 Japan*, 50 10 5 5 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 Age (Years) Source: IAEA|PRIS TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com Gigawatts of Capacity Regional Breakdown of Operational Reactors
- 11. Energy Consumption: Nuclear vs Wind + Solar 3,000 Nuclear 20% Wind & Solar 18% 16% 14% 2,000 TWh 12% 1,500 10% 8% 1,000 6% 4% 500 2% 0 0% 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: BP Statistical Review 2013 TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com nuclear % of glabal electricity 2,500
- 12. Reactor Constructions: Regional issues Median Reactor Construction Duration Reactors Under Construction, Regional Breakdown Reactor grid connections 1981-1995 Reactor grid connections 1996-2012 Number of reactors Median construction duration (years) 10 5.25 12 4.65 China 3 6.08 14 5.15 Japan 28 3.90 8 3.82 USA 48 11.43 1 N/A Total China, 28 Number of reactors Korea Other, 22 Median construction duration (years) 245 8.17 65 7.58 Source: IAEA|PRIS Expected Reactor Connections to Grid Korea, 5 2013 India, 6 Source: IAEA|PRIS 2015 Number of reactors 14 17 13 China Russia, 10 2014 7 8 8 Actual 4 1 Source: WNA TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 13. Uranium Production Sensitivity Analysis End of 2013 Currently Operable Number of reactors 435 Base Case, 2040 Outlook New grid 198 connections permanent shutdowns Results 119 514 million pounds of U3O8 0 Additional U3O8 Production Requirements Growth 18% 28% 219 90 -100% 46% 171 21 150 Best Case, 2040 Outlook Reactor Secondary Mining New grid needs Supply est. connections 219 Median global Supply from Mining reactor downblend of production requirements HEU est. million pounds of U3O8 permanent shutdowns Results 294 119 610 Reactor needs Secondary Supply Worst Case, 2040 Outlook Mining est. 260 0 Reactor Secondary Mining needs Supply est. 330 million pounds of U3O8 Results 260 198 permanent shutdowns million pounds of U3O8 New grid connections 303 129 20 Additional U3O8 Production Requirements 131 Additional U3O8 Production Requirements Growth 73% Growth 40% 52% -100% -30% -24% -7% 109 (41) -27% The Athabasca Basin in Northern Saskatchewan, hosts the highest grade uranium deposits in the world and substantial existing infrastructure. This is an attractive proposition for uranium exploration. Source: IEA’s WEO 2011 and ZC estimates TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 14. Spot price U3O8 and Canadian Uranium Exploration (millions of USD) 100 90 80 70 400 We anticipate 2013 to be a trough for Canadian uranium exploration expenditures, rebounding strongly by approximately 70% by 2018, following a nominal price increase of 76% for uranium 350 300 250 60 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 Source: Cameco, NRC, Federal Reserve, and ZC estimates TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 15. The Athabasca Basin Spot Price Estimates Identified Resources of U3O8 Annual mean Zimtu 2013 39.74 2014 48.75 2015 54.03 2016 59.85 2017 65.74 2018 69.89 Cost Ranges Adjusted for Mining Inflation per pound U3O8 < $18 Australia Kazakhstan Russia Canada Namibia USA Niger World total < $36 < $59 < $117 - 3,508.1 4,319.8 4,520.5 123.2 1,263.0 1,635.5 2,131.0 - 144.0 1,266.6 1,690.6 912.0 1,083.6 1,218.5 1,597.3 - 17.2 678.5 1,346.9 - 101.7 539.2 1,227.4 14.3 14.3 1,094.5 1,158.2 1,770.2 8,003.4 13,849.5 18,449.6 2013 expected global reactor requirements = 168.9 million pounds U 3O8 Source: OECD Uranium Red Book 2011 and ZC estimates The Athabasca Basin is the global low-cost uranium supplier. The Basin will profit from exploration dollars transitioning out of high cost regions in Africa, Kazakhstan, and Australia. TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 16. Conclusion: Grade is King Supply of Uranium As Per The World Nuclear Association Website Very high-grade ore (Canada) - 20% U 200,000 ppm U High-grade ore - 2% U, 20,000 ppm U Low-grade ore - 0.1% U, 1,000 ppm U Very low-grade ore* (Namibia) - 0.01% U Athabasca Basin Sample Deposit Depths Projects Mean Approximate Depths (meters) McArthur River 530-640 Cigar Lake 410-450 100 ppm U Roughrider 225-350 Granite 3-5 ppm U Shea Creek 650-850 Sedimentary rock 2-3 ppm U PLS 50-300 Earth's continental crust (av) 2.8 ppm U Seawater 0.003 ppm U Source: Cameco, Denison, Hathor, FCU Source WNA Largest High Grade Mines in the World Mine Average Grade U3O8 McArthur River Cigar Lake The Athabasca Basin is the global lowcost uranium supplier. This competitive advantage is extremely important and will drive investment dollar to the region. 16.89% 18.30% Source: Cameco TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com
- 17. CONTACT 1450 – 789 W Pender St., Vancouver, BC V6C 1H2 / Toll-Free 1.877.377.6222 / Ph: 604.681.1568 / info@zimtu.com David Hodge Sven Olsson Sean Charland President & Director Director Director Ph: 604.681.1568 Ext. 223 Ph: +49 7161 290 967 Ph: 647.926.7326 dhodge@zimtu.com solsson@zimtu.com scharland@zimtu.com Vancouver, Canada Stuttgart, Germany Toronto, Canada TSXv:ZC / FSE:ZCT1 / www.zimtu.com